Any projections or predictions on arby raises

[Milltownhooker]

This board usually does a bang-up job of projecting these.

[trwi7]

Bush - $4.5 million

Weeks - $3.2 million

Coffey - $1.6 million

Villanueva - $1 million

Gerut - $2.25 million

Gomez - $1.15 million

Hart - $4.25 million

[thebruce44]

Bush - $4.5 million

Weeks - $3.2 million

Coffey - $1.6 million

Villanueva - $1 million

Gerut - $2.25 million

Gomez - $1.15 million

Hart - $4.25 million

Thats pretty much exactly what I had. I bumped up a few of them just for the sake of conservatively estimating payroll but a lot of those guys are coming off of down years or had just 1 big year (Coffey) so their salaries shouldn't jump too crazy.

 

I think Hart will be looking for a lot more than that (even though he hasn't been worth it), so hopefully he comes to his senses without having to go to Arby.

[Roderick]

Bush - $4.5 million

Weeks - $3.2 million

Coffey - $1.6 million

Villanueva - $1 million

Gerut - $2.25 million

Gomez - $1.15 million

Hart - $4.25 million

I'll take the over on Villy. I don't know the history for Gomez. My guesses are close to your estimates.

[JohnBriggs12]

Bush - $4.3 million

 

Weeks - $3.8 million

 

Coffey - $1.75 million

 

Villanueva - $800K

 

Gerut: $1.9 million

 

Gomez: $850K

 

Hart: $4.2 million

 

 

No way Villanueva or Gomez get a million. Gerut barely gets a raise as does Bush. Both will get more than their open market value. Coffey gets the largest % raise by far. Weeks will make a case for projecting his 09 start and get more.

[rluzinski]

The whole point of pre-free agent arbitration is to give players less than what they would otherwise get on the open market. I don't believe Bush or Gerut will be an acception. If what you say was true, why would the Brewers have even offered them arbitration?

[nate82]

Bush on the open market would get at least $5m. Brett Myers got $5m from the Astros and was injured for the most part last year. I don't see how Bush wouldn't get at least $5m or more.

[strawbossisevil]

I seriously doubt that Bush and Hart get as much as some are suggesting here. Not after the numbers they put up last season.

[Ennder]

I seriously doubt that Bush and Hart get as much as some are suggesting here. Not after the numbers they put up last season.

Bush probably will. He was a very solid starter until he got hurt last year and was very solid the year before. They can make a pretty clear case that the injury was the reason for the ERA.

[Roderick]

The whole point of pre-free agent arbitration is to give players less than what they would otherwise get on the open market. I don't believe Bush or Gerut will be an acception. If what you say was true, why would the Brewers have even offered them arbitration?

Haven't we seen a trend where pre-free agent arbitration is getting closer and closer to what market free agents have been receiving? I hope you are right, but how often do you see a player get a decrease in pay (Gerut was $1.75M)?

[Invader3K]

Yeah, the problem seems to be that instead of controlling costs for younger players, the arbitration process tends to inflate the cost of the players to FA levels by their fifth and sixth year. They should really review the whole process with the next CBA.

[thebruce44]

I think the problem has more to do with the breakdowns as based to FA a couple of years ago. Now it is somewhat inflating, but in a couple of years (assuming the economy comes out of the toilet) it should be back to normal.

[JohnBriggs12]

The whole point of pre-free agent arbitration is to give players less than what they would otherwise get on the open market. I don't believe Bush or Gerut will be an acception. If what you say was true, why would the Brewers have even offered them arbitration?

My point exactly. It was a mistake and a misreading of the market to tender Bush. The market for 30 year olds coming off of 6.38 ERA seasons isn't very strong. Bush would be lucky to get $3 million with some incentives on the open market. It was a mistake to tender him. Look what the Nationals did with Scott Olsen. Olsen's younger, is lefthanded, and has practically the identical career ERA as Bush. He was good in 08, bad and injured in 09 but is now healthy. He made $2.8 million last year and wouldn't have gotten much of a raise, but they non-tendered him anyway, and then signed him for $1 million, with incentives that could reach $4 million. Another example is Todd Wellemeyer. Where's the demand for him? His career numbers are not far off from Bush either. He's probably going to end up with a minor league deal somewhere.

 

It was also a mistake to tender Gerut. Not a huge mistake, but look at what backup outfielders are signing for. Eric Hinske got $1 million. Jason Michels got $850,000. Ryan Langerhans got $525,000. Brian Anderson got $750,000. Scotty Pods, coming off a much better year than Gerut was just signed by the Royals to start for a base of $1.75 million. Gerut's going to have tough time making a case he's worth more than that. A bunch of other guys haven't found jobs. Teams just don't have the money to spend on 4th outfielders. Even the Yankees with a huge hole in LF are reportedly budgeting a very minimal amount for an OF.

 

I don't think the Brewers would be out of line submitting arby amounts for Bush and Gerut below what they made last year. If they got to a hearing, they'd have plenty of ammunition.

[wishicouldhit]

Projections Actual

Weeks(1) 3.2 2.75
Weeks(2) 3.8
Gerut(1) 2.25 2.00
Gerut(2) 1.9
Projection one by trwi7 and projection 2 by JohnBriggs12

After the weeks and Gerut signings here is amount of money we "saved"
Projection(1) trwi7: $0.7 mil
Projection(2) JohnBriggs12: $0.95 mil

[YoungGeezy]

The Brewers def got lucky this season when it comes to arby because almost everyone had injury issue, a down year, or both giving the players very little leverage at all. Coffey to me would prob be up for the biggest raise out of all them because he is the only one to stay healthy and play consistantly well for the whole season. This arby period should be rather painless.

[Invader3K]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/82094917.html

 

Link has figures players are asking and what the Brewers are offering.

[trwi7]

Midpoint numbers for each remaining player.

 

Coffey - $2.075M

Hart - $4.475M

Bush - $4.2875M

Villanueva - $.9375M

 

I estimated the seven arbitration eligible players would make $17.95M, if the rest settle at the midpoint they'll be making $17.625M.

[wishicouldhit]

Accoding to TH Gomez signed 1.1