how far away is this wave of pitching prospects?

[BREWCREW5]

I keep hearing all of our really good pitching prospects are far down in the system. How far away is this wave and how good do some of these guys project to be?

[paul253]

My assumption is at some point next season you'll see Josh Butler, Mike Jones, and possibly Zach Braddock pitch in Milwaukee. As for the rest, I can't really see anyone making a significant impact before the 2012 season.

[TheCrew07]

That's a pretty difficult question to answer with any accuracy as opinions will vary wildly, but I'll take a shot at it.

 

Personally this is what I think is plausible in no particular order other than how they come to mind, not an absolute best or worst case for all of the prospects. The year for the younger guys would be the first year I'd think they'd possibly see action for the MLB team, for the AAA guys it would be the year they come up for good (if they make it, a player like Dillard is very difficult to project). Injuries/ineffectiveness will also take a toll on this group and I've already removed players that I feel are long shots to make it (Seidel for example, though I remain hopeful)

 

Butler - Back of the rotation starter - 2010

Rivas - Mid rotation (2/3) starter - 2011

Rogers - Mid to Back rotation (2-4) starter - 2011

Scarpetta - Back of the rotation starter - 2012

Arnett - Mid rotation (2/3) starter - 2013

Odorizzi - Mid rotation (2/3) starter -2013

Jones - Back of the rotation starter - 2010 - Okay so this is a best case, forgive me one player, he's one of my guys

Bucci - Back of the rotation starter - 2014

Lasker - Back of te rotation starter - 2014

 

Axford - Bullpen - 2010

Dillard - Bullpen - 2010

Cody - Bullpen - 2011

Aguilar - Bullpen - 2012

Braddock - Bullpen - 2011

Hand - Bullpen - 2012

Peralta - Bullpen - 2012

Bowman - Bullpen - 2012

Heckathorn - Bullpen - 2013

Wooten - Bullpen - 2011

Fiers - Bullpen - 2012

Periard - Bullpen - 2012

Meadows - Bullpen - 2013

Ritchie - Bullpen - 2013

Anundsen - Bullpen - 2012

Hinton - Bullpen - 2012

Tyson - Bullpen - 2012

 

Frederickson is another player that deserves mention, I'm just not sure where... Isom made some very nice comments regarding progress with his delivery during instructs, he's a guy who could fly through the system if he figures things out or he could be the guy who walks the yard every time out.

[logan82]

Hard to say what we have for pitching prospects until they has success at the AA level.

[ILuvDaBush]

Jeffress: 1-2 SP 2011

 

It needs to be said.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

There are plenty of players that you listed that have "Top of the rotation" ceilings, but if you want to be ultra conservative, then I guess your list is ok.

[JohnBriggs12]

This thread reminds me of how young pitchers are babied now compared to 30-40 years ago.

 

Some examples: Lary Sorenson was an 8th round pick out of Michigan in 1976. He made 8 starts and 13 appearances in the NY/Penn league that year before being bumped all the way up to AA in the same season. By midway through 1977, he was a starter for the Brewers and won 18 games in 1978. Jerry Augustine was drafted in the 15th round out of UW LaCrosse in 1974, and was up with the Brewers to stay by the end of 1975 shortly after his 23rd birthday. Bill Travers was drafted out of high school in 1970 in the 6th round and started out at age 17 in the Midwest League. was in AA by age 19, and in the majors at 21. Moose Haas was drafted out of high school in 1974, After pitching in the Midwest League in 1975, he was jumped all the way to AAA the next year and debuted with the Brewers at age 20. Nobody on here has been harsher on Parra than I have. That's because I believe compared to guys back in my day, he's a weakling mentally.

 

Dare I say the guys in my generation were tougher mentally and physically (Haas threw 192 innings combined as a 20 year old)? Today, they're afraid to have a 20 year old work more than 100-120 innings. No wonder it takes them 4-5 years. The real reason of course though is money. Back then, they didn't have guys with multi year contracts clogging up the pitching staffs and each player didn't come with an arbitration clock.. If Suppan were around then pitching like he has the last couple seasons, he'd already be on his next career becuase he'd be done.

 

I say anyone one certainly as high as AA should be prepared and expect to pitch in the majors in 2010 from the standpoint of being mentally ready. If they're not then the organization isn't doing its job.

[CheezWizHed]

Dare I say the guys in my generation were tougher mentally and physically (Haas threw 192 innings combined as a 20 year old)?

 

I wonder if anyone has gone back to look at how many arms were blown out in "those days", leaving us with just the examples of those that actually succeeded? I bet there was a higher injury rate, yet it didn't matter as much, since they were cheap to replace.

 

I would think that:

1) League expansion: making the talent spread out further throughout the league.

2) Advancement of scouting: making it harder for people to slip through the cracks in the draft

3) High salaries: blow out a few of your quality arms, makes people back off pushing everyone.

contribute to the system we have now instead of the 1970s. Not their mental/physical toughness. In fact, I would guarantee players are more physically tuned then those of the 1970s.

 

Without looking, I would wager a bet that you could find a Manny Parra-like pitcher from the 1970s. Comparing him to Moose Haas is hardly fair.

[pogokat]

I'm guessing 10 year olds weren't throwing 150 innings a year in the early 70's either as they are in competitive little leagues, fall ball and travel ball

[filthyfrog]

Managing injury risk is one compelling argument for "babying" young pitchers, and I'd add that there's a good case for effectiveness. Since the offensive explosion in the '90s, you simply can't have pitchers on the mound when they're not in peak shape. Hitters these days are too good. It doesn't matter how "tough" a pitcher is if one tiny mistake can cost a ballgame. To get hitters out, pitchers have to be at their best. And there are very few pitchers who can be at their physical best when throwing 260 IP a year.

 

I think a pitcher could get away with being 80% 30 years ago. But whether you blame it on steroids, small ballparks, whatever, home runs are too frequent now to pitch at 80%. There's less room for error.

 

Dave Bush is a good example. He certainly fits the description of a player with "1970s toughness," but did pitching hurt help him or the Brewers? No, because when pitchers aren't fully healthy today, they get lit up.

[paul253]

Isn't 2011 a little bit of a rosy outlook for Rogers? He pitched 2 innings at a time in A+ this past year. I am sure he'll pick it up some in Huntsville next year, and I know he is running out of options, but I cant possibly see him in Milwaukee before 2012.

[Mr Southpaw]

JB,

 

It is hard to argue generations with people who have not lived through generations. Nothing against the pups.

[JJHardy7]

JB,

 

If you were a GM/Director of Minor Leaguers, what would you do in today's game?

[Invader3K]

I remember hearing this argument in regards to the Milwaukee Braves. They had some really young pitchers that they used up in a couple years by having them pitch like crazy. While I think any athlete has to be tough, I think it's been shown that "babying" young pitchers is more likely to give a franchise a better return on their investment than rushing them to the majors. This is especially true with a smaller market team like the Brewers.

[TooLiveBrew]

Imo the idea that pitcher durability is somehow related to toughness is just an easy answer that makes fans feel satisfied because then they know what it *really* is all about.

[CheezWizHed]

JB,

 

It is hard to argue generations with people who have not lived through generations. Nothing against the pups.

With all due respect, you have no idea how old most of us are on this board. And calling people "pups" negates your "Nothing against" comment. (Of course, old dog != new tricks is the recourse to that)

 

Just because certain practices worked with certain individuals in the past, doesn't mean that is the way it should work on the future. Looking at the number of pitching prospects that the Brewers have lost through injury is plenty of argument to revisit how people are handled. It has nothing to do with toughness or mental ability. For every Moose Haas, there is a CC Sabathia. Every generation has its ironmen, and its tin-foil men.

 

Personally, I'm very glad that the Brewers are being proactive with Peterson in investigating how best to handle pitching prospects, because its an area of huge need. The Brewers have been terrible at if for many years.

 

For the most part, the Brewers have been very patient with most of their prospects (Odorizzi), but pushing some when it "clicks" with an individual (Gallardo).

 

Seeing how they have promoted pitchers in the Melvin era, I can't generally disagree with how they have handled their pitchers. But unfortunately, they still have a high incident of injury.

[MJLiverock]

I am sure the money factor is the major reason why guys are "babied" or brought along slowly in addition to probably finding it just works better in the long run, making sure guys have better control, better stamina, etc. sort of the of return on investment idea mentioned above.

 

I would however be careful in comparing the injuries or blown out arms of yesteryear to today. The medical advances of today versus even the 70 or 80's have changed what is a career ending injury. Just think about Tommy John surgery which up until that at the time risky procedure all of the guys with elbow injuries like that were pretty much done as a pitcher. Today the league is littered with guys who have had 1 Tommy John procedure, imagine how many of today's pitchers would either be done or would have missed signigicantly more time or just never been the same again without this one new procedure. I have no idea how many guys have benefitted from newer shoulder procedures although that one still tends to be tough to overcome.

[RobertR]

I'm open to the idea that perhaps teams are a little overconservative these days. That said, I'm not at all convinced that a throwback to the old days is the answer.

 

Personally, I see the big difference between todays pitchers and the previous generation as being velocity. Todays pitchers throw harder than ever. And that comes from force generated, which also means that pitchers are putting more stress on their arms than ever before.

 

Frankly, I think the coaches that can somehow convince the pitchers that it's o.k. to take a little off your pitches if it means improved movement and control are the ones that are ahead in the game. I'd like to ban radar gun readings on scoreboards along with it. Tell pitchers to get people out and not tempt them to try to touch triple digits.

 

Robert

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Isn't 2011 a little bit of a rosy outlook for Rogers? He pitched 2 innings at a time in A+ this past year. I am sure he'll pick it up some in Huntsville next year, and I know he is running out of options, but I cant possibly see him in Milwaukee before 2012.

 

I think if Rogers can log 100+ quality innings this year, he should have no problem being called up in the 2011 season. His innings will have to be watched and he surely won't be relied on very heavily, but I think you are correct in 2012 is the year where he could open as our #2 starter.

[804Sox]

I think Rogers is a lot like Nick Hagadone, in that he has the stuff to be a mid-rotation starter, but the time missed to injury at his age and level has set him back in terms of innings buildup to the point that he will probably break in as a reliever, and likely establish himself as a solid 7th/8th inning setup man.

 

Beyond that, while I think leaving rogers off my top 20 list was probably too harsh, I still have major concerns about his control. It is common to excuse poor walk rates in the first year after TJ surgery, as command and feel are the last thing to return, but his control was awful even before surgery. This problem is somewhat mitigated in a relief role because 1) high pitch counts per inning are not as much of a concern because you do not risk taxing the rest of the bullpen, and 2) statistically, most 1 inning outings will not be overly affected by poor control.

 

That said, I agree that if Rogers has a strong start to the season, he could be fast-tracked for arrival in early 2011 as a reliever, possibly sooner.

[strawbossisevil]

I have a lot of hope going into this next season when it comes to Brewers pitching prospects. My thoughts on a few of them in no particular order.

 

1) Rogers by all accounts is feeling great and is throwing smoke (as evidenced by his fastball numbers from Arizona). Certainly he may need a bit of time to master his control, but if/when he does, he has ace potential. I'm confident that having Peterson as the pitching coach will help him in the control department. As long as he avoids the injury bug, I think we could be seeing him rapidly climbing the prospect charts next season, potentially joining the rotation in 2012.

 

2) Jeffress, like Rogers he has tremendous potential and also is capable of throwing fastballs closing in on triple digits. His problem also is control, and I think he has the motivation to put the work in necessary to harness his pitches, working with Peterson should help. The key with Jeffress isn't whether he has the stuff necessary to be an ace pitcher, it's whether he can handle the mental part of being a professional baseball player. Once again, assuming he stays on the field this next season, I think he'll turn a lot of heads, I think he'll make it into the rotation in 2012 too.

 

3) Braddock. He's got wicked stuff, and all that is holding him back from being a potential #1/#2 type pitcher is various health issues. The good news is that by all accounts he should be heading into this season healthy. With a K/9 last season in excess of 13 (plus his exceptional showing in Arizona), all he needs in order to become a top of the rotation starter is that health, and since most of his injuries have not been ones that threaten his long term health, I look forward to this year being the year he remains healthy and makes a case for a top of the rotation spot as early as next season.

 

4) Arnett. He's a college guy with a mid 90s fastball and a solid slider. He should be a quick mover in the system, and will likely end up being a middle of the rotation guy quite soon for the Brewers. Possibly joining the team as early as 2012.

 

5) Odorizzi. He's a HS guy so he's a few years off, but he has been exceptional so far. His control is what really stands out from last year, walking only 1.72 batters per 9 in his first full year of minor league ball. That is outstanding. He features a mid-90s fastball and some solid breaking pitches, striking out almost a batter per inning against a league featuring many college players. He's got some work to go, but I say he shares a similar ceiling to Arnett, with the potential of being a 2/3 in the rotation as soon as 2013.

 

6) Scarpetta. Cody has a high ceiling, and even higher if he improves upon his control. So far in his young career he's K'd over 10 batters per 9. Featuring an extremely nasty curveball and a fastball in the lower 90s, he profiles as a pitcher who could have a ceiling of a 2/3 if he can learn to control. He could be ready by 2012.

 

7) Rivas. Will likely be up in AA this season. He profiles as a middle/back of the rotation starter 3/4. His K numbers have been good, but incomparison to others on this list, not great. His walk numbers are good, but not great. Good news is he could be ready to step in by midseason 2011.

 

8) Butler. He really moved last year, and I think it's quite possible we'll see him sometime in 2010. Of all of this group, he probably doesn't profile to be anything but a back of the rotation starter. In the minors he's K'd 6.8/9. I see him as a potential cheap replacement for Suppan in 2011, but I don't expect much more beyond that from him.

 

9) Peralta. I like Peralta a lot and I think he is often under-rated. I think he has great middle of the rotation potential. He has K'd 9.5/per 9 in his career so far, and few realize that he's only 20 years old. He's a ways from the big show, and his control from last season leaves something to be desired (4 BB/9). But he has the potential to be a 2/3, especially as he continues to grow and mature. I see him ready to go by 2013.

 

10) Heckathorn and Fredrickson are both players with tremendous potential, with both of them having 2/3 potential if they can work through their control problems. I see both of them arriving around 2013 if they can put it together.

 

So based on how I see it, I could see them arriving this way (2012 looks like it could be a very exciting year if that group can stay healthy):

2010: Butler (back of the rotation)

2011: Braddock, Rivas (midseason)

2012: Rogers, Jeffress, Arnett, Scarpetta

2013: Peralta, Heckathorn, Fredrickson, Odorizzi

[jerichoholicninja]

Nolan Ryan has implemented an "old school" pitching philosophy in Rangers organization. There was an article about it in ESPN the Magazine over the summer. The Rangers pitchers feel that the "new" program has allowed them to go deeper in games and stay stronger over the scorching Texas summer. From what I remember the program consists of lots of long toss, lots of running and pitchers throwing live batting practice in spring training. We'll have to see over the next year or so how their guys hold up and see if this "new" philosophy becomes popular.