Macha and the IBB

[endaround]

Since we haven't had some Macha hatred for a few day, we can look at this:

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/320766-rating-the-managers-by-intentional-walks

 

Bascially Macha lapped the field when it can to issuing "bad" IBBs last year. Walking bad hitters because thats what the chart says to do in other words.

[logan82]

He intentionally walked 2 guys in the same inning in the August 11th game they mention.

[topper09er]

It would be more interesting to see # of innings with an IBB where 0 runs scored after the IBB and # of times the guy who was IBB'd actually scored himself.

[logan82]

It doesn't matter if runs scored when a guy was intentionally walked or not. Just because runs don't score doesn't mean it was a good idea.

[monty57]

I took a couple of months off, trying to purge my disgust with Macha. I just went back and re-read some of my posts from the end of the season, and I'm going to try to stay level-headed and not do a bunch of Macha-bashing. Therefore, I will not focus on the Brewers here and just make a general statement:

 

If OBP is one of, if not the most important offensive stat, how can it be a good idea to give away a lot of free bases to the opposing team? A team that intentionally walks a lot of batters would seemingly give up more runs than they otherwise might.

[Schlitz001]

He is a pretty big switch from Ned Yost, who it seemed never IBB'd anyone.

[topper09er]

It doesn't matter if runs scored when a guy was intentionally walked or not. Just because runs don't score doesn't mean it was a good idea.

Unless runs would have scored without the IBB, which we will never know but Im sure there are times when it is the right decision.

 

IBB has 4 "uses": setting up a double play, walking someone to get to the pitcher (partially to pitch to a bad hitter and partially to force the other team to pull the pitcher from the game), avoiding having to face a Pujols/Bonds type and setting up what you think is a good matchup between the pitcher and on deck hitter. I think walking the 8 hitter to get to the pitcher is always a bad idea since the 8 hitter is usually the worst position hitter (I still dont understand how Jason Kendall was intentionally walked 6 times last year).

 

I would however be interested to see the percentages on DPs turned when the IBB caused a force out and percentages of times 0 runs were scored in a innings when a guy like Pujols was walked.

[Invader3K]

Hasn't it been statistically shown that IBBs tend to bite the other team in the rear more often than not? ie. it's better to not give up walks at all? I thought I remember someone posting data that showed that a while ago on this forum.

[monty57]

I'd guess that not all intentional walks are the same, as Topper mentioned. There are times when it's probably a good idea to walk someone. However, some managers (not mentioning names) seem to intentionally walk someone every time first base is open.

[Baldkin]

I think walking the 8 hitter to get to the pitcher is always a bad idea since the 8 hitter is usually the worst position hitter (I still dont understand how Jason Kendall was intentionally walked 6 times last year)

The difference between Braun and Kendall was about the same as the difference between Kendall and Parra, at least OPS-wise.... so I can see the logic.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd guess that not all intentional walks are the same, as Topper mentioned. There are times when it's probably a good idea to walk someone. However, some managers (not mentioning names) seem to intentionally walk someone every time first base is open.

Even with all the different bits of strategy that can play into things, statistically, iirc it is almost absolutely never a good idea to walk any hitter. The top-flight, best hitters in the game are still retired roughly 60% of the time.

[Oldcity]

Just about Yost's only redeeming qualities were not bunting or IBBing. Macha's actually refers to "numbers" pretty regularly, so I'm not sure how he's missing this.

[1992casey]

For the most part, intentional walks should be reserved for situations where a walk would be a negative offensive outcome. An example would be setting up a double play in the bottom of the last inning when one run would be enough to lose the game.

[logan82]

There are some times when an IBB is a good idea. They are really few and far between though. Using it to set up a double play isn't one of them. The odds of actually getting a groundball with a guy who hits a lot of groundballs against a pitcher who induces a groundball are pretty small. Walking a guy with less than 2 outs is probably almost always a bad idea. Walking the bases loaded is almost always a bad idea as well since you put your pitcher in the position where a walk scores a run. If the walk advances runners it is also generally a bad idea.

 

Here is an old thread on it. In know there is an even older more in-depth thread.

 

This was posted by sbrylski in the thread I linked.

[topper09er]

So in 2001 with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, up by 1 run and no one on base would you IBB or pitch to Barry Bonds?

[topper09er]

Or Ryan Braun hits a 2 out double, you have a righty pitcher and Fielder followed by Hart, would you IBB Prince there? You are up by 1 run in the 8th inning.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think walking the 8 hitter to get to the pitcher is always a bad idea since the 8 hitter is usually the worst position hitter (I still dont understand how Jason Kendall was intentionally walked 6 times last year)

The difference between Braun and Kendall was about the same as the difference between Kendall and Parra, at least OPS-wise.... so I can see the logic.

Walking or not walking an 8th hitter intentionally should never be an absolute either way. It depends on many factors but largely comes down to how badly you need an out. If your pitcher is shaky and the opposing pitcher is a real bad hitter, go ahead and walk the 8th hitter to make sure your pitcher gets through the inning without further damage. If the pitcher is Zambrano, then no, don't walk the 8th hitter.

[logan82]

With only one out you would still have to face the leadoff hitter.

 

So in 2001 with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, up by 1 run and no one on base would you IBB or pitch to Barry Bonds?

 

I would probably pitch to Bonds. If he hits a HR you are still only tied pus he is facing your closer. The best guy you have if you only need one out.

 

 

Or Ryan Braun hits a 2 out double, you have a righty pitcher and Fielder followed by Hart, would you IBB Prince there? You are up by 1 run in the 8th inning.

 

Bring in a LHP to pitch to Fielder.

 

 

The problem with some of Macha's IBB, and sac bunting for that matter, is that he does it early in games instead of close and late situations.

[Schlitz001]

Or Ryan Braun hits a 2 out double, you have a righty pitcher and Fielder followed by Hart, would you IBB Prince there? You are up by 1 run in the 8th inning.

 

Bring in a LHP to pitch to Fielder.

Assuming my closer is my best relief pitcher, I would walk Fielder and bring in my closer to face Hart. If my closer is a lefty I might consider pitching him against Prince. With only 4 outs to go it seems to me to be more important to protect a 1 run lead, especially when those 4 outs will likely go to the best pitcher in my bullpen.