twins article about washburn and gamel

[prophet]

http://sports.yahoo.com/m...Xl24RvLYF?urn=mlb,212044

 

So if this is true, and they are interested in Gamel, Who would we want for him? And, who could we get?

[DannoMac21]

Liriano and change at least.

[yoshii8]

After reading the article, I think that he is just throwing Gamel's name out there, but I would ask for Kevin Slowey.

[sbrylski]

Slowey's coming off wrist surgery, so I think that makes him considerably less of a realistic target. And Liriano's fastball just isn't the same after his injury. (EDIT: Just read the Liriano thread and saw the updates. Still don't think they would want risk going after a guy like that with Gamel.)

 

I think we'd be looking at a Blackburn or Swarzack in return for Gamel.

[nate82]

I think we'd be looking at a Blackburn or Swarzack in return for Gamel.

Thank you but no thanks. Swarczak would be OK but not what I would expect in return for Gamel. Blackburn is a 4+ ERA pitcher no matter what league you put him in. I do not see why you would target Blackburn in return for Gamel. Liriano makes more sense to trade for than Blackburn does. At best Blackburn is a #4 type of a starter while Liriano at best is a #1 and at worst would be a #4 or #5 type of a starter. Liriano definitely has more value to the Brewers and other teams than Blackburn. Blackburn is nothing special while Liriano can be an ace.

[Bnowell4evr]

I dont see the point in trading for Blackburn when we could sign the same player in Jon Garland on a 1 year deal and keep Gamel.

[yoshii8]

Slowey's coming off wrist surgery, so I think that makes him considerably less of a realistic target.

I took that into consideration, but he's also supposed to be healthy for spring training. I still would ask for Slowey.

[Tbadder]

Hardy got us a fourth outfielder. That means we could probably get a #2 pitcher at AAA for Mat. Stay away from the Twins Dougie, they fleeced you once.

[JohnBriggs12]

Slowey's coming off wrist surgery, so I think that makes him considerably less of a realistic target.

I took that into consideration, but he's also supposed to be healthy for spring training. I still would ask for Slowey.

I'm with yoshii8. Slowey is the guy I'd want. They won't be able to afford to keep both Slowey and Baker beyond the next year or two if they want any shot at keeping Mauer. The fact that they still caught Detroit last year without having Slowey down the stretch might make them believe he's expendable.

 

I'm not as down as some on Blackburn either. He was remarkably consistent in 08 and 09 with almost identical ERAs and Whips. That he doesn't strike out a lot doesn't bother me in the least. He gives up a lot of hits, but guys pitching in that dome who don't fan a lot are going to give up hits.

 

I'd value Slowey higher than Blackburn though, so I'd need them to throw in a sweetener if they insisted on Blackburn

[sbrylski]

I think we'd be looking at a Blackburn or Swarzack in return for Gamel.

Thank you but no thanks. Swarczak would be OK but not what I would expect in return for Gamel. Blackburn is a 4+ ERA pitcher no matter what league you put him in. I do not see why you would target Blackburn in return for Gamel. Liriano makes more sense to trade for than Blackburn does. At best Blackburn is a #4 type of a starter while Liriano at best is a #1 and at worst would be a #4 or #5 type of a starter. Liriano definitely has more value to the Brewers and other teams than Blackburn. Blackburn is nothing special while Liriano can be an ace.

I'm speaking from the Twins perspective, and what I think they would offer. I think the Twins valuation of Liriano and the Brewers valuation of Liriano wouldn't match up and allow for a trade.

[JohnBriggs12]

Blackburn came up awfully big for them down the stretch last year (5 ER in his last 4 starts), all games the Twins won and he allowed the Yanks just 1 run on 3 hits in his playoff start in 5 2/3.. I sure wouldn't lump him in with Swarzack.

[sbrylski]

I think the Twins valuation of Liriano and the Brewers valuation of Liriano wouldn't match up and allow for a trade.

 

Expanding on that, same thing with Slowey, because of the injury.

 

On Liriano and Slowey, the fact that the Twins would agree to trade either of them should raise a flag. From the outside looking in, with incomplete information on the injuries they have had, we can only play the odds - 75% chance Slowey picks up where he left off, 50% chance Liriano become an ace again, or whatever. The Twins have a much better idea of those odds, maybe 90% for Slowey and 5% for Liriano, for example.

 

If the Twins offer Slowey, for what we believe is fair (remember we believe he's 75% likely for a full recovery), doesn't that signal that the chance of him actually recovering (as known by the Twins) is either 75% or lower? That means there's a decent chance we are buying a lemon, and should probably stay away. But the Twins, in this example, think that Slowey has a 90% chance of recovering... they are going to want to be compensated that full amount. Why would the Brewers pay for 90% of Slowey when our best guess is that we are only buying 75% of Slowey. Hell, the Twins can ask for whatever % of Slowey they want to, can't they? And its always going to be higher than the actual %, because they can take advantage of our incomplete information.

 

That was not very articulate, was it? Just trying to demonstrate the advantage of having the better medical records on a player in trade talks, and why injured players don't get traded much.

[sbrylski]

Blackburn came up awfully big for them down the stretch last year (5 ER in his last 4 starts), all games the Twins won. I sure wouldn't lump him in with Swarzack.

What about his other 62 major league starts? Should we count those?

 

I do think you're right though, that Blackburn trumps Swarzack, especially in the Twins eyes.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the Twins valuation of Liriano and the Brewers valuation of Liriano wouldn't match up and allow for a trade.

 

Expanding on that, same thing with Slowey, because of the injury.

 

On Liriano and Slowey, the fact that the Twins would agree to trade either of them should raise a flag. From the outside looking in, with incomplete information on the injuries they have had, we can only play the odds - 75% chance Slowey picks up where he left off, 50% chance Liriano become an ace again, or whatever. The Twins have a much better idea of those odds, maybe 90% for Slowey and 5% for Liriano, for example.

 

If the Twins offer Slowey, for what we believe is fair (remember we believe he's 75% likely for a full recovery), doesn't that signal that the chance of him actually recovering (as known by the Twins) is either 75% or lower? That means there's a decent chance we are buying a lemon, and should probably stay away. But the Twins, in this example, think that Slowey has a 90% chance of recovering... they are going to want to be compensated that full amount. Why would the Brewers pay for 90% of Slowey when our best guess is that we are only buying 75% of Slowey. Hell, the Twins can ask for whatever % of Slowey they want to, can't they? And its always going to be higher than the actual %, because they can take advantage of our incomplete information.

 

That was not very articulate, was it? Just trying to demonstrate the advantage of having the better medical records on a player in trade talks, and why injured players don't get traded much.

You're ignoring the economics involved here sbrylski06. When talking Twins and economics, it's all about Joe Mauer. If Slowey reverts to his 08 form, he's going to get a huge raise in 2011. Same thing with Baker who'll be in his 2nd year of arby. I think it just might be in their best interest to insure they don't have to pay both Slowey and Baker in 2011 and they can do that and pick up a needed, yet cheap bat with a lot of upside. They are going to need every available penny in 2011 to keep Mauer happy. That's why they are talking one year with Washburn and have Pavano on a one year arby deal too. Any deal would be contingent on a physical. The Brewers wouldn't go into it blind.

[fleehaw]

You're ignoring the economics involved here sbrylski06. When talking Twins and economics, it's all about Joe Mauer. If Slowey reverts to his 08 form, he's going to get a huge raise in 2011. Same thing with Baker who'll be in his 2nd year of arby. I think it just might be in their best interest to insure they don't have to pay both Slowey and Baker in 2011 and they can do that and pick up a needed, yet cheap bat with a lot of upside. They are going to need every available penny in 2011 to keep Mauer happy. That's why they are talking one year with Washburn and have Pavano on a one year arby deal too. Any deal would be contingent on a physical. The Brewers wouldn't go into it blind.

Baker signed a 4 year 15.25M deal that runs thru '13. He's due 3M in '10, 5M in '11, and 6.5M in '12. I think they can easily afford Baker and Slowey. They may have to make a decision between Slowey, Blackburn, and Liriano though in '11 or '12.

[dadofandrew]

Blackburn and Slowey each have 4 years of team control left. They would not take anything less than one of those two, or Baker, but i assume he's untouchable.

[sbrylski]

You're ignoring the economics involved here sbrylski06.

Whether or not they are motivated to move him doesn't enter into my point. I'm talking only about targeting an injured player in a trade, and that the team that owns an injured player or one coming off injury has an advantage at the negotiating table because they have much more complete medical information. Therefore, we shouldn't be targeting Liriano or Slowey. Baker I like, but I don't agree the Twins want to move him to save money - like fleehaw said, they just signed him to an extension.

[Invader3K]

Players have to pass a physical before a trade is completed, so I'm not sure what the problem would be there. Lowell ended up not going to the Rangers because he didn't pass a physical. No harm done there.

[RockCoCougars]

I wouldn't feel right about trading Gamel just because Ken doesn't like him. Certainly not for the mediocre pitching that the Twins can offer. Give the kid a chance to play every day first, unless he can be moved as part of a package for a legitimate #1-#2 guy.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I agree. I don't see the point in trading Gamel for an OK-ish starter when one can be signed on the FA market right now.

[Kelbysdaddy]

i would be stoked for brian duensing + for gamel (but i really would rather not trade gamel)

[JohnBriggs12]

i would be stoked for brian duensing + for gamel (but i really would rather not trade gamel)

Brian Duensing is not worth Gamel. His body of work (84 innings) isn't extensive enough when coupled with rather mediocre minor league numbers (4 ERA in 330 AAA innings, more than a hit per inning) and the fact he was 26 before making his major league debut.

[yoshii8]

I agree w/ JohnBriggs, if we only got Duensing for Gamel I'd be very dissapointed.

[Kelbysdaddy]

i would be stoked for brian duensing + for gamel (but i really would rather not trade gamel)

Brian Duensing is not worth Gamel. His body of work (84 innings) isn't extensive enough when coupled with rather mediocre minor league numbers (4 ERA in 330 AAA innings, more than a hit per inning) and the fact he was 26 before making his major league debut.

i do believe i wrote duensing + as in plus another player. i think duensing could be a really good 2 or 3 starter in a couple years.

[yoshii8]

I meant to say if Duensing is the main player in the deal I will be dissapointed. He has had some rough AAA numbers in both 08' and 09', and I don't see him as a being a future #2 or #3. I think he will end up being a reliever or #5 starter.