Adrian Beltre to BOS; 1 yr./$9M ($5M 2010 player option/$1M buyout)

[TooLiveBrew]

Boils down to 1 year at $10M or two years at $14M. I think this is a tremendous pickup for the Red Sox. Link

[ILuvDaBush]

They have to be the favorites for 2010 now. I predict Dice-K has a huge "bounceback" year. I also predict the prognosticators all heap praise upon Theo for getting the "bargain of the winter" in Lackey. Look at Jack Z's approach and now Theo's. Three outfielders, all capable of playing CF-quality defense. Corner infielders of the highest of defensive quality (like Adrian Beltre '09 and Adrian Beltre '10). I just wonder if Scutaro was the best defensive shortstop available. I also have to wonder what is going to become of Mike Lowell's dead plowhorse carcass. He could platoon at DH with Big Papi while accumulating enough value to unload upon some unsuspecting agrarian sort.

Definitely 2010 WS favorites.

[TooLiveBrew]

Definitely? Not sure you're remembering just how incredible the Yankees' roster is.

[sbrylski]

Boils down to 1 year at $10M or two years at $14M. I think this is a tremendous pickup for the Red Sox. Link

Yeah, but they already have an expensive 3B on the roster. So they paid that not for Beltre, but for Beltre's value minus Lowell's value.

 

Lowell over the past three seasons has seen his WAR go from 5.3 to 3.2 to 1.2. Beltre has been from 3.0 to 4.1 to 2.4. So let's say Lowell would have been a 2 win player for them this season and Beltre will come in and be a 3 win player. $10 million for an extra win is hardly a tremendous pickup. They need to shed at least around $5 million of Lowell's $12 million salary in a trade to make this worthwhile.

[Mass Haas]

Casey Kotchman is going to get over $5 million in arbitration, and now serves as a defensive replacement for a (wait) already excellent defender in Kevin Youkilis.

 

Theo has it too easy with that budget.

[Ennder]

I also predict the prognosticators all heap praise upon Theo for getting the "bargain of the winter" in Lackey. Look at Jack Z's approach and now Theo's. Three outfielders, all capable of playing CF-quality defense

 

I predict the opposite, Lackey is unlikely to earn his salary at least long term. Maybe for just this year it works out. I also question calling Milton Bradley, J.D Drew and Jeremy Hermida CF quality defensive players.

[colbyjack]

Yeah, but they already have an expensive 3B on the roster. So they paid that not for Beltre, but for Beltre's value minus Lowell's value.

 

I disagree that the signing of Beltre has anything to do with the presence of Lowell. It's still a very good signing, picking up a solid baseball player that appears to be somewhat undervalued, similar to Mike Cameron, but roughly a decade younger. As Mass alluded to, the Red Sox look good because they have the money to do so, and a GM savvy enough to wait and make some shrewd pickups. Their team defense should be incredibly good.

 

Although I agree with TLB, the Yankees' roster is still far too good to consider the Yankees anything but the team to beat in the AL East.

[endaround]

If the reports from when the Rangers looked at Lowell are to be believed Lowell might not be able to physically play this year.

[Funketown]

Boils down to 1 year at $10M or two years at $14M. I think this is a tremendous pickup for the Red Sox. Link

Yeah, but they already have an expensive 3B on the roster. So they paid that not for Beltre, but for Beltre's value minus Lowell's value.

 

Lowell over the past three seasons has seen his WAR go from 5.3 to 3.2 to 1.2. Beltre has been from 3.0 to 4.1 to 2.4. So let's say Lowell would have been a 2 win player for them this season and Beltre will come in and be a 3 win player. $10 million for an extra win is hardly a tremendous pickup. They need to shed at least around $5 million of Lowell's $12 million salary in a trade to make this worthwhile.

I do think that when analyzing moves for Boston, it isn't really fair to use the typical $4-$5 million per win. Because of where they stand, each additional victory is more valuable for them than for just about any other team. Just throwing a number out there, I would guess a win for Boston would be worth more like $6-$7 million given their team and their position in the league. However, given that the 30 team market sets prices, whether or not should pay that much for a win is up for debate.

 

That said, given what we know about the Rangers trade, I don't think it's fair to consider him a 2-win player this year. Even if he won't be worth $9MM to the Sox this year (not saying he won't, this all depends on Lowell's status), that $5MM option is certainly attractive. Though of as a 2 year, $14MM deal, I think the odds are that Beltre puts up at least 3-4 additional wins for the Sox.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's hard to find holes on Boston's roster. They are solid everywhere. Cameron might be their weakest link and that's not really a big knock on him. Their top hitters, Youkilis and Martinez may not be as good as the Yankee pair of A-Rod and Teixeira but their close, and the Yankees OF still has some question marks and holes to fill. I can't dismiss the Yankees though.

[Ennder]

Cameron is their best OF so not sure why he would be the weakest link.

[owbc]

I'm not sure who is going to win the AL East, but I know that the 3 teams with the lowest probability of making the playoffs over the next 5 years are the Rays, Jays, and Orioles.

[Ennder]

I'm not sure who is going to win the AL East, but I know that the 3 teams with the lowest probability of making the playoffs over the next 5 years are the Rays, Jays, and Orioles.

I'd take any 3 of those teams over the Royals if we were betting on teams to make the playoffs. All 3 of those organizations are set up very well in the minors and most likely would be competitive teams in the other divisions in baseball. A string of bad luck by Bos or NY and most likely 1 of those teams is the wild card. The Royals are just futile until they fire the GM.

[endaround]

The Yankees can get old real quick. Not only are Arod, Jeter, Petite and Posada on the wrong side of 30, they're on the wrong side of 35.

[crewcrazy]

I really like this deal for Boston -- considering Beltre is a Boras client, I don't think anyone (including the Red Sox) is expecting him exercise the player option unless the market is even worse next winter. In the mean time, they continue to get better defensively. I know some Red Sox fans who are still upset that their lineup isn't going to be able to compete with the Yankees' fire power (or even the lineup they had two or three years ago), but I think they've done a good job improving their pitching staff and all the defensive improvements will also help the pitching.

[ILuvDaBush]

When I said that Lackey is going to be considered the "bargain of the winter" now, I meant it because of Beltre's defense. And while I'll agree that Bradley and Hermida aren't CF-quality, I do still believe JD Drew can play a serviceable CF (though with their team, they will never be forced into such a predicament).

[monty57]

considering Beltre is a Boras client, I don't think anyone (including the Red Sox) is expecting him exercise the player option unless the market is even worse next winter.

 

Or if he gets seriously hurt and can't play, in which case the Sox will have to pay him. Or, if he plays very poorly this season. Player options really are not something teams should want. They're only exercised if it's going to hurt the team.

[TooLiveBrew]

Agreed, monty. I think, in this case, the player option was in lieu of guaranteeing Beltre a second season.

[kramnoj]

There are some educated Sawx fans that think the player option is capology. Based on the current CBA rules, the way this is structured, the Average Annual Value of this deal for the Sawx is $7M, rather than $9 or $10M. This would save them when it comes to luxury tax time.

 

That also probably comes into play with the Hall trade. Another site I visited compared Hall's value to the Sawx and likened it to the Raef Lafrenz contract.