Aroldis Chapman

[alwz4gbp]

I was just reading an article from Jeff Passan on Yahoo and he only projects Chapman as getting a contract of 5 yrs/$27M. I understand that there is the "mystery/cuba" factor but is this something that Melvin should be begging Mark A for? I can see it now, DM tugging on Marks sleeve like a 4 year old trying to get his moms attention, saying "Mark, Mark, Mark, Mark". If this guy is all they say he is, and lets face it, none of us really know anything about him, it seems like a reasonable price to possibly catch lightning in a bottle. I hope DM and MA realize that the window is closing and they'd better make a move.

 

A rotation of:

 

Gallardo

Wolf

Chapman (projections of course)

Parra

Bush

 

This looks pretty damn good to me and look, NO SUPPAN

 

On a side note, any thoughts on Tejada?

 

Heres the link

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-freeagents010210&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

 

Heres another tidbit on Chapman:

 

4. Aroldis Chapman, SP: Based on potential for greatness, he's No. 1. Based on potential for calamity, he's No. 131. Lefties who throw 100 mph don't grow on trees. In fact, they don't grow but every 25 years or so, and here is this generation's.

[sveumrules]

i'd love to roll the dice on aroldis but between him needing at least a year in the minors and the fact that our offer would have to be significantly higher due to us being the milwaukee brewers it's probably not gonna happen. seems like a bargain though for a quarter or so of matsuzaka's total cost.

[alwz4gbp]

Funny you mentioned Dice K. He and his enormous contract popped into my head as well. Do you really think that he'd have to spend at least a year in the minors? I kind of envisioned a Liriano sort of debut. If I recall correctly, he was brought up about mid season and demolished the entire american league for the rest of the year. I really wish I knew more about Chapman.

[sveumrules]

everything i've read suggests that while his stuff is certainly major league quality that his command of it needs some work. i think best case scenario is whoever signs him will start him off at AA and maybe bring him up midseason if he impresses there.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Amongst my friends group I've been bringing up Chapman's name as someone I would love to see the Brewers gamble on.

 

I know that is a huge gamble. Probably a gamble so large the Brewers can't risk it but it might be just the high risk high reward deal the franchise needs. The little bit I was reading about his workouts are going very well. Hitting 96 on the gun and consistantly hitting 93-94.

 

The top offer known to be on the table is 5 years 15 million. For arguments sake I have been using the numbers 5 years 22.5 million as what the Brewers would have to offer to "lock" him up. 2.5 million up front as a bonus then 4 million per year. Ideally set up so it would be 1-3 million year 1 and going up from there.

 

Signing Chapman would be a nice way for the Brewers to get an infusion of young talent into there franchise that would be hard to do without a bold move like this. If Chapman was draft eligible he would be a top 5 pick, and depending on the year top 3. The Brewers won't be picking that high for a long time (cross' fingers).

 

Chapman is a gamble but it is one that I wish the Brewers would roll the dice on. A 5 year deal for 4 million per isn't going to be an albatross of a contract on a 80 million + budget. Sure it would sting if he flopped out miserably. The other way of looking at is if he flops out so horrible that he wouldn't be tradeable with the Brewers picking up half his remaining contract it would probably be injury related which hopefully insure would cover.

[sheetswannabe]

If Mark A and DM could get it done, I would love to see this guy pitch for us. 5 years 30 million should get it done. Not a huge gamble, we have a lot of moolah coming off the books next year, although, we need to sign most of our arby players.

[804Sox]

i'd love to roll the dice on aroldis but between him needing at least a year in the minors and the fact that our offer would have to be significantly higher due to us being the milwaukee brewers it's probably not gonna happen. seems like a bargain though for a quarter or so of matsuzaka's total cost.

I agree that the Brewers are at a disadvantage given their location and smaller budget. Right now, it seems that the front-runners are the big market EC teams (Boston/NYA/NYN) and (apparently) the Marlins (large Cuban community in Miami, perhaps?). One thing the Brewers do bring to the table, however, is a competitive team that also has room for him in the rotation if he pitches well in the minors to start the year. Chapman's agent has said Aroldis wants to pitch in the majors this year, and the Brewers might offer him the opportunity to do that AND win.

 

Just a thought . . .

 

Also, Dice-K is a horrible comparison. First, because of the posting system, the Sox bought exclusive negotiating rights, which meant Dice-K's contract was worth less than he would have earned on the open market (like Chapman). Also, Matsuzaka was a more "proven" commodity. He had been a highly successful pitcher in the Japanese league since a young age and had performed well in international competition. With Chapman, there is less knowledge of how performance in the Cuban professional league translates to performance in MLB. Also, he has not performed particu;larly well there or in international competition yet, so he's all projection - truly a prospect whereas Dice-K was undoubtedly MLB-ready.

[Invader3K]

I wouldn't hold your breath. The Brewers never get mentioned in connection to high profile international free agents like this. As much as I would possibly like to see something like this happen, it's probably too much of an uphill battle for Doug Melvin to even bother with.

[marty22]

I agree with Invader, that the crew probably won't even bother to make an offer, but I'm in the camp that we should. His whole contract wouldn't even have to count against the "Major League Payroll". They could write some of it off to the draft budget, especially since we won't have many early picks this year because of not offering arby to our eligible players.

[crewcrazy]

I agree that the Brewers are at a disadvantage given their location and smaller budget. Right now, it seems that the front-runners are the big market EC teams (Boston/NYA/NYN) and (apparently) the Marlins (large Cuban community in Miami, perhaps?).

 

Don't forget the Angels, who may have a leg up on other teams due to having Kendry Morales already on the squad. I have to imagine having a Cuban teammate who's had to go through the adjustments of life in America and could show him the ropes, so to speak, would be a draw.

 

Chapman would be nice, but I can't envision any scenario where a young Cuban kid would choose Milwaukee over cities like Miami, New York, or Los Angeles, where he'd have a better chance of feeling comfortable.

[nate82]

Chapman definitely isn't MLB ready yet. At least as has been stated previously that he just doesn't have the command yet. There have also been some mental questions about him. At that price he wouldn't be a bad pick up but he definitely will be starting his career in the minors. I believe the Yankees have said that he would start in high A with them. Others haven't really hinted at where he would start at but I'm guessing somewhere in A or AA baseball. I don't think the Marlins are really serious about Chapman but you never really know about the Marlins. I think it will be down to the Angels and the Yankees.

[Principessa21]

Funny you mentioned Dice K. He and his enormous contract popped into my head as well. Do you really think that he'd have to spend at least a year in the minors? I kind of envisioned a Liriano sort of debut. If I recall correctly, he was brought up about mid season and demolished the entire american league for the rest of the year. I really wish I knew more about Chapman.

 

From what I've read about his command and secondary pitches, I would be surprised if Chapman pitched in the majors next year. Even though he has a great upside, I don't think the Brewers should spend the money he's supposedly asking for on him.

[Funketown]

Committing 5/25 to Chapman is a huge risk to a team like the Brewers. I'm not much of a prospect guy, but from what I've heard, the level of play in the Cuban league is likely somewhere between A- and A ball (mainly per BP)l. Sure, he's a phenomenal talent that may someday win a Cy Young, but that is a huge sum of money for a guy who walked 62 batters in 118 innings last year.

 

That said, I know little of his mechanics, nothing about his coaching, and nothing about his injury history. I just think it's probably better to let someone like LAA or BOS take a run at the guy.

[Invader3K]

Latest on MLBTR is that the Marlins are probably out of it and that the Angels are looking like the favorites.

 

The rich keep getting richer in this game, I guess.

[Beer Slide]

Chapman to the Reds? Just saw this posted on Rotoworld:

 

"Yahoo's Jeff Passan reports that an "NL Central" team has signed Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman and speculates it may be the Reds.

A team source told Passan this week that the Reds were going after Chapman "like crazy" while the other Central teams -- Cardinals, Astros, Cubs, Pirates and Brewers -- have not been linked to the Cuban defector for quite some time. The contract, whoever may have tendered it, is thought to be worth $30 million over five years. Stay tuned as we sort this all out."

 

Certainly interested to see how this plays out.

[hawing]

Let's continue the conversation here.