remaining free agents as of 12/31 - potential Brewers appeal?

[danzig6767]

I'd be for signing Smoltz if he'd be willing to accept an incentive laden contract. Even with his struggles last year, he still got lots of swings and misses along with giving out few walks.

[RobDeer 45]

Man I don't know who we should go for but I think we need to bring in a reliable guy and then I'd love to see us take a chance on an injury guy. I'd be happy with Davis Smoltz or Washburn for the right price.

[Invader3K]

Ken Rosenthal has a new piece up where he mentions he feels the Brewers will sign one of Davis, Washburn, or Garland before spring training stars. Haudricourt has more on it in his blog.

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see Washburn with the Brewers. I think he'd be an OK option as long as it's not more than a two year deal.

[Roderick]

Hart needs to take more pitches or he's never going to be the 20/20 guy that he should be.

Doesn't appear to be the direction they are heading.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/63196077.html

Manager Ken Macha believes Hart's new approach at the plate could have contributed to his downswings. Throughout spring training and this season, the Brewers preached a more disciplined approach for their hitters, and Hart obliged. He walked 43 times this season in 42 less games than last season when he walked 27 times.

But the increased walks and on-base percentage - .300 in 2008 to .335 this season - came at a price.

"We were trying to get him more disciplined at the plate and not swing at sliders out of the zone, and we accomplished that," Macha said. "But we took away a little bit of the aggressiveness, maybe sapped him of his power."

My take is that Hart has little trade value whatsoever as there are comparable free agents that will be costing similar money as Hart will cost after his arby negotiations. If the Brewers trade him, he would have to be packaged with a very attractive prospect to get any return. Either that or the Brewers trade him for the salary relief.

[Tbadder]

I like the Smoltz reasoning, and if he stayed healthy he'd be clearly superior to Garland, Davis, or Washburn. Signing Holiday would win us the division though. We'd lose our shirt financially, but I can't see how we wouldn't take the division.

[monty57]

My take is that Hart has little trade value whatsoever as there are comparable free agents that will be costing similar money as Hart will cost after his arby negotiations. If the Brewers trade him, he would have to be packaged with a very attractive prospect to get any return. Either that or the Brewers trade him for the salary relief.

 

I agree with that. When I mentioned trading Hart earlier it was only in the unlikely situation that we would be able to sign someone like Holliday. Then I'd give Hart away simply for the salary relief if that allowed us to sign Holliday. Almost certainly not going to happen.

 

As it stands, we don't have much OF depth at the major league level, so the best we can do is to hope for a bounceback. I kind of expect a Hart/Gerut "soft" platoon as they are similar players in that they've both put up big years in the past. If one of them breaks out, play him and let the other be the 4th OF. I think Hart is given the benefit of the doubt because he came up through the system and Brewers fans witnessed his good season first hand. I'd say Gerut has just as good a chance of having a good year as Hart, and they should complete for PT. I guess our new CF could be thrown in there as well, but my guess is that if Melvin has any control of the team, he will undoubtedly be the full time CF at least to start the season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Signing Holliday would also prevent us from retaining many of our home-grown stars. Aside from the fact that it isn't going to happen, it's a really bad idea for the Brewers imo.

[Invader3K]

I like Holliday, but we have no realistic place for him, and he's going to get overpaid solely based on the fact he's the best OF available this off-season. He's a great player, but he's probably going to be paid like an upper echelon star, which he really isn't.

[MNBrew]

I'm still pretty convinced bargain-basement prices are coming eventually. With tons of teams still with big needs & at least some $$ to spend, there are only 6 changes to this list over the past 9 days:

 

Infield (Brewers may need depth):

 

Nomar Garciaparra (more likely on the corners)

Eric Hinske (corners + corner OF) signed w/ Braves

Orlando Hudson (only if Weeks gets hurt between now & ST)

Aubrey Huff (corners + corner OF)

Felipe Lopez

Mark Loretta (sunset of his career, but still wish we'd never let him go)

Melvin Mora

Miguel Tejada

 

Outfielders (potentially as 3rd/4th starter or more-solid-than-Gerut reserve):

 

Garrett Anderson (LH bat)

Rick Ankiel (more name than actual value I think, but some solid skills)

Rocco Baldelli (low risk, potentially very solid reward, proven history in CF) -- on my original paper version, forgot him on this list

Endy Chavez (solid production, experienced part-timer, could be CF or 4th OF)

Johnny Damon (not likely, but still a solid player, would start)

Jermaine Dye (if Hart were moved to CF or in trade)

Vlad Guerrero (not likely -- more realistically a DH from here on out) deal apparently in place w/ Rangers

Matt Holliday (highly unlikely -- would also weaken St.L.!) re-signed w/ Cardinals

Scott Podsednik (LH, CF or corners, still hits well & has good speed) signed w/ Royals

Randy Winn (see Dye comment)

 

Pitchers, non-injured:

 

Doug Davis

Jon Garland

Braden Looper

Pedro Martinez

Brett Myers (?) signed w/ Astros

Joel Piniero (big $$ expected after contract-year wonder-production)

Jarrod Washburn

 

Pitchers, injury recoveries:

 

Erik Bedard (if this guy were healthy, he'd be worth the risk)

Randy Johnson (not likely, but even at his age he's still better than Suppan if healthy) announced his retirement & began his Cooperstown clock

Ben Sheets (not at the dollar figures he's talkin' 'bout)

John Smoltz (see Randy Johnson comment)

Chien-Ming Wang (see Bedard comment)

 

Pitchers, other:

 

Brenden Donnelly (pitched decently when healthy last year; don't really need him; if he's unemployed going into ST, worth signing for AAA & injury insurance)

[Ennder]

So out of this list I like Baldelli, Loretta or if the price is right Davis/Garland/Washburn. I still think Garland is going to get a 3 year deal from someone since he is young so he seems the least likely. I'd be intrigued by Smoltz or Bedard as well but I have no clue about their health status. I'd also love Damon with Hart traded but I don't see it happening. Damon would be the perfect fit for this lineup as we are going to be OBP starved with Escobar, Gomez and Hart playing every day.

[Invader3K]

Nice list, MNBrew.

 

If we really need a veteran utility player, I'd have to think we could get Loretta relatively cheap on a one year deal. Would be kind of nice to see him finish out his career here, after having been a big part of some of the "down years" for the franchise. I think Baldelli is probably out of the Brewers' price range based on past reputation and "upside." Having said this, I'm not sure we really need "infield depth", like you suggest. We already have Counsell, and Gamel could be called up if something happens to McGehee (or if Weeks inevitably gets hurt again). They also have Heether and Iribarren available on the cheap. They aren't going to pay someone $4-5 million to be a utility type, as they just don't have the payroll flexibility. If we had more money, Miguel Tejada would be a phenomenal pickup.

 

Damon is pretty intriguing (assuming Hart could be traded, like Ennder suggests), but I have a suspicion his pride won't let him "settle" for signing with a team like the Brewers. Melvin would probably have to overpay to get him to play here, and by that point he isn't worth it.

 

They will definitely sign another pitcher before Spring Training, probably one of the oft-mentioned three (my guess would be Washburn at this point, but who really knows?). They will also sign Mark Mulder, so there is your "high potential, injury dude" signing.

[TooLiveBrew]

Damon had a tremendous 2009, but I'm very skeptical he can repeat that level of production in 2010. Perhaps the only situation in which he might pull of that feat would be playing half his games at Yankee Stadium, which isn't going to happen. I think if Brian Cashman felt that it was a good bet Damon would repeat his 2009 numbers, he wouldn't have cut off negotiations when Damon/Boras demanded of 2 yrs./$20M after Cash offered Damon 2/~$15M. Imo the two parties would've agreed on something around 2/$17M. Home/Road 2009 splits:

 

H: .279/.382/.533/.915

R: .284/.349/.446/.795

 

 

The road line essentially looks like something Corey Hart could very reasonably do next year, and given Hart's age & price (along with Damon's), I would -- personally -- rather play the Hart bet than the Damon bet.

[trwi7]

R: .284/.349/.446/.776

I think your math might be a little off here. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

Ack, yeah... duh. Got my eyes crosses up while copying those numbers from his baseball-reference page. The .776 was his OPS against LHP last year.

[monty57]

For the money, Hart could be the better bet, but Damon's a better player. Hart's career OPS is .796, and he hasn't hit for .795 (Damon's road number) since his big year in 2007, when he hit .892 (and which skewed his lifetime number, getting it to .796). His past two seasons have been .759 and .753, which put him in the lower third of all MLB right fielders. He'll likely get $4-5MM this year.

 

I hope Hart can bounce back, but I'd have to go into this season assuming around a .750-.760 OPS from Hart, hoping he proves me wrong. Then, the question is: Would an .800 or so OPS out of Damon be worth an additional $5MM or so over a .750 OPS from Hart. Another benefit would be that we'd have Damon for two years, giving us another year's bridge for our good young OFs in the minors.

 

Given our current situation, I think any money we have left should go towards another starting pitcher. If we had more money to burn, and Damon would come to Milwaukee, I'd definitely offer him a contract and try to move Hart for salary relief.

[endaround]

Thing is Damon is terrible defensively right now so the improvement would be small at best for like $4m in salary difference.

[logan82]

Another benefit would be that we'd have Damon for two years, giving us another year's bridge for our good young OFs in the minors.

 

We have Hart for 2 more years.

[dadofandrew]

Damon had a sub 800 OPS away from new Yankee Stadium...teams see that and have shied away. He's also not as good defensively as Corey.

 

The only benefit of a signing would be signing a FA for free and then being able to trade away the incumbent...of course, the acquiring team knows they can just sign Damon as well.

[monty57]

Terrible relative to what? Hart is probably below average on reads, with good speed that helps him make up for it. Somehow, his arm seems to have regressed over the past couple seasons. All told, I'd say he's an average right fielder, and that's mostly due to speed. On offense, he's an enigma, but he's really starting to look like the pitchers figured him out and he's having a hard time getting in any type of rhythm. Endaround, I'm with you that the Brewers remaining money probably would be better spent elsewhere, but I think Damon's a significantly better player than Hart.

 

If I had to guess, Hart will be allowed a little more freedom this year, to try to get back to his glory days. If he can get his power back with just a little bit of plate discipline, he'll be okay. As it stands, he's either a free-swinger who the pitchers have figured out, or someone who is behind every fastball, as he's trying to be more patient. I have to believe part of the reason the Brewers are trying to trade him is due to worry that he won't figure it out, and he won't even be worth the $4-5MM he'll make this year.

 

As I said in another post, I hope they give Hart and Gerut starts in RF this year. Both have played well in the past, but neither has done enough recently to be handed a starting job.

[thebruce44]

Unconventional, but McGehee or Gamel could both provide more offense and probably equal defense while being 1/10 the cost this year in RF.

[TooLiveBrew]

On offense, he's an enigma, but he's really starting to look like the pitchers figured him out and he's having a hard time getting in any type of rhythm.

 

His walk rate was greatly improved last season, and he wound up being hampered by an incredibly fluky injury (emergency appendectomy). I think it's way too easy & early to just say, 'Pitchers have figured him out', when Corey actually showed signs of figuring opposing pitchers out in 2009 with his increased BB rate.

[monty57]

Another benefit would be that we'd have Damon for two years, giving us another year's bridge for our good young OFs in the minors.

 

We have Hart for 2 more years.

 

That may well not be a benefit.

 

His walk rate was greatly improved last season, and he wound up being hampered by an incredibly fluky injury (emergency appendectomy). I think it's way too easy & early to just say, 'Pitchers have figured him out', when Corey actually showed signs of figuring opposing pitchers out in 2009 with his increased BB rate.

 

He was told prior to the season to take more pitches in an attempt to stop him from swinging at every down & away slider. That led to a higher walk rate. However, it caused him to be tentative and therefore late on fastballs. This all but eliminated his power. He's said it and coaches have said it.

 

Now, it looks like Macha is going to let him be more of a free swinger. I hope he'll be able to maintain some degree of plate discipline. If he can put it all together, he could be a good player again. He's never going to have enough plate discipline to be a good player if he doesn't have power, and if his power only arrives when he swings at everything, he'll be out of the league before he's 30... think September 2008, where Corey looked more lost than any player I've ever seen in the majors.

 

I'm pretty sure Hart will be our RF for the next two years, so I really hope he's able to put it all together. However, I wouldn't go into the season expecting him to be an .800 OPS player.

[nate82]

As I stated in a thread in the transaction forum that Gabe Gross maybe a good option to have platoon with Hart in RF. Not only could Gross be a platoon partner with Hart you could also have him sub for Braun against a tough right hander when Braun needs a day off. Though I would rather have Nady or Damon over Gross the cost savings of Gross who would cost around $1-2m compared to Nady who will probably cost around $4-6m while Damon will command a little bit more than that somewhere around $10m sounds about right for him. I believe you could get the same production out of Gross with a platoon with Hart that you could get with Nady or Damon full time at about the fraction of the cost. Unless the Brewers get blown out of the water with a deal that sends Hart for a young pitcher I don't see the Brewers going after someone like Nady or Damon.

 

I would rather target Gross or Church and have them platoon with Hart but that probably means the Brewers wouldn't be able to pick up another starter though at least no one significant maybe someone like Bedard who the Brewers could get on an incentive laden deal but that is about it.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's never going to have enough plate discipline to be a good player if he doesn't have power, and if his power only arrives when he swings at everything, he'll be out of the league before he's 30... think September 2008, where Corey looked more lost than any player I've ever seen in the majors.

 

I think it's overly simplistic to say, 'Well, what if his power is only there when he has no plate discipline?' He won't be a good full-time player without discipline, power or not, so he needs to figure out how to develop patience without losing his pop. Do you really belong in MLB if you can't be at least moderately disciplined without being late all the time on fastballs? I'd much rather see Hart continue to take pitches & put his game together from there than go back to just having the green light to swing at anything he likes.

[Milltownhooker]

Probably could add Colby Lewis & Vincent Padilla to that list. I'm hoping if Suppan gets drilled in spring ball the crew can negotiate a buyout. Not gonna hold my breath thou.