Have the Brewers improved this offseason?

[strawbossisevil]

I think this thread is a good example of why we ought not judge an offseason until it's over.

[BREWCREW5]

paul253 wrote:.

 

He'd better. I wouldn't surprised at all to see only two players hit over 20 home runs this season so Macha had better figure out a way to score consistently.

And it wouldnt suprise me to see four players do it Hart, Weeks, Braun and Fielder.

 

And it would suprise me to see two players with 40 or more...

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Macha had better figure out a way to score consistently

 

What this means is that he needs to put the best OBP lineup on the field on a consistent basis. SBs have no correlation with consistent run-scoring.

[endaround]

And the best way to score more is to give as few PAs to Gomez and Escobar as possible.

[paul253]

What this means is that he needs to put the best OBP lineup on the

field on a consistent basis. SBs have no correlation with consistent

run-scoring.

Not going to argue with you there. I was just implying that with a seemingly less "powerful" team this season with Gomez and Escobar replacing Cameron and Hardy, they are going to need to find a different way to score. And while stealing more bases won't necessarily equate to more runs, it certainly won't hurt. Not to mention we have a lot of guys (Weeks, Hart, Escobar, Gomez) that are capable of doing it, so why not try?

[strawbossisevil]

I think the biggest difference isn't SB which only marginally help. But instead the ability our team will have this season of taking extra bases on base hits. Gomez and Escobar are both examples of players who should do very well going from 1st to 3rd in a number of cases where Cameron and especially Hardy wouldn't be able to. I think there is definite value in having that type of speed on the base paths even apart from the stolen base.

[igor67]

With the addition of Davis on the pitching side I do think it will be a lot better, mostly because Melvin didn't push just one button. He got some good pen depth, a couple of starters and while I might not think that the defensive improvements will be huge (going from two good defensive players to possibly 2 excellent defensive players isn't that large of a jump in my mind) there are a lot of ways for that half of the club to be dramatically better. And Bush and Parra could easily improve with some regression to the mean let alone actually getting to be better. So I guess I'm inclined to say a definite yes on the improvement, but it seems to me that whether we are a marginal wild card team at 85 wins or a real strong team at 90 wins hinges on what kind of offense we see from Hart, Escobar, and Gomez. I don't think any of them need to be major forces, but if they can all slot in close to batting .300 like they need to do to be effective it should be a pretty good team.

[brewtown82]

I think you all are underestimating the effect of SBs on offense. First, you need to have a very high success rate to make it worthwhile. I get that. However, it's difficult to measure the mental toll on a pitcher to fear the runners on the basepaths, versus the confidence and concentration that a pitcher can develop if he doesn't have to worry about steals at all. Just look at how freaked-out our pitchers seemed last year with base stealers on.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the effect SBs have on pitchers is vastly overrated. Pitchers always get hit harder with men on base (basestealers or not), and iirc Baseball Between the Numbers wasn't able to find anything statistically significant in examining the effect good basestealers have on pitchers.

 

 

And while stealing more bases won't necessarily equate to more runs, it certainly won't hurt. Not to mention we have a lot of guys (Weeks, Hart, Escobar, Gomez) that are capable of doing it, so why not try?

 

Gomez is a guy I would definitely not want green-lighted unless he makes a drastic improvement in his basestealing efficiency. But I'd agree that Weeks, Hart, & Escobar should all get a pretty loose rein. As long as the success rate is over 75%, I try not to let CSs piss me off too much http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I'd love to see Weeks run more, personally, but batting in front of Fielder & Braun complicates things a bit in that respect.

[nate82]

I think the speed will help the bottom of the order a little bit. This is where the Brewers can take full advantage of stealing bases. With the Brewers the 7th and 8th hitters in the lineup is probably going to be Gomez and Escobar. With the pitcher batting 9th you could have either Gomez or Escobar steal a base and then get the speedier player to 3b with a sacrifice or just let the pitcher strike out. Either way Gomez and Escobar will be in scoring position at 1B or 2B so that shouldn't really matter.

 

I don't really want to see Weeks stealing bases with him batting in front of Braun and Fielder. Having Gomez and Escobar at the bottom of the lineup will create the best times to steal bases. I believe near the bottom of the order is where you want your players stealing bases since the reward out weighs the risk by a lot. You have some of your worst hitters at the bottom of the lineup and that is not even including the pitcher. Increasing the likelihood of scoring at the bottom of the lineup is where you would want to be stealing bases. Since you have the pitcher in the 9th spot a caught stealing in front of the pitcher is not all that bad unless it is the 3rd out of the inning.

[bork]

Question. Is Weeks an upgrade defensively over Lopez? Or is it a wash?

[brewmann04]

Davis and Wolf is a major upgrade over last year staff so yes.

[logan82]

Hard to say. Lopez has been a poor defender over his career. Weeks hasn't been good either. Probably a wash unless Weeks gets better.

[trwi7]

I think overall Weeks and Lopez are similar defenders. The problem with Weeks imo is that he still has trouble turning the double play. His feet still get tangled a lot and it ends up causing an awkward throw that sometimes leads to throws that are nowhere near Fielder.

[bork]

So overall:

Defense: Slight improvement

Offense: Worse, but by how much? This will be the biggest question going into the season.

Bullpen: Slight improvement

Rotation: Significantly better.

 

The rotation will obviously have the biggest effect. Not just better numbers, but going deeper into games. Gallardo was the only one to consistently give 6+ innings last year. Gallardo, Wolf and Davis at least gives 3 starters who will give you 6 innings constistently. I know it's not a great stat but it's interesting that they had 64 quality starts last year, but 93 quality starts from the starters on this year's team. That should help the bullpen from getting burned out in the second half of the season and keep the team in more games so they won't need to score as many runs.

[logan82]

Defense is probably a wash or a little worse.

[TooLiveBrew]

Question. Is Weeks an upgrade defensively over Lopez? Or is it a wash?

If Rickie's 21.9 UZR/150 in '09 was a reflection of his improvement, and not just fluky, then he's absolutely an upgrade. However, as much as I'd like to believe he's improved that much, I just find it hard to believe. At this point I agree with trwi7 that they're probably about equal value on defense.

[igor67]

That UZR number for Weeks almost certainly looks so wacky because of the small sample. I'm not saying he didn't get better, because he's always had the tools to be an above average defender. Elite performance out of the blue however seems like a reach, though that would give the Brewers probably the best up the middle defense in baseball.

 

Just a quick thought on SBs. I like them and really think it adds to the excitement of the game (I fondly recall the early 90's teams that had players up and down the line-up that would atleast try here and there). However given that no one can isolate a statistical effect of pitcher fear (which would not be hard if it existed), I suspect the statement is a carry over from the Jackie Robinson days. His style and Newness of dancing around clearly unnerved some pitchers back then. Over the years though it lost that novelty, pitchers and catchers adapted and it became part of normal preparation.

[Ennder]

Defense is probably a wash or a little worse.

 

Zaun is better defesively than Kendall, Gomez is better defensively than Cameron and Escobar could plausibly be as good as Hardy. I find it unlikely that it is worse. It is either a little better or maybe a wash.

[monty57]

Weeks' problems on defense have been summed up by coaches as trying to do things too fast. Randolph seems to have had an effect on Rickie in getting him to "slow the game down." I hope this can continue. He was brutal to watch early in his career, but has taken significant strides forward.

[endaround]

Defense is probably a wash or a little worse.

 

Zaun is better defesively than Kendall, Gomez is better defensively than Cameron and Escobar could plausibly be as good as Hardy. I find it unlikely that it is worse. It is either a little better or maybe a wash.

You're forgetting that McGehee will be at 3B full time. He was horrendous last year. Now he might have recovered from injury enough to be back to where he was or maybe his lateral movement is shot. Who knows?

[endaround]

That UZR number for Weeks almost certainly looks so wacky because of the small sample. I'm not saying he didn't get better, because he's always had the tools to be an above average defender. Elite performance out of the blue however seems like a reach, though that would give the Brewers probably the best up the middle defense in baseball.

 

Just a quick thought on SBs. I like them and really think it adds to the excitement of the game (I fondly recall the early 90's teams that had players up and down the line-up that would atleast try here and there). However given that no one can isolate a statistical effect of pitcher fear (which would not be hard if it existed), I suspect the statement is a carry over from the Jackie Robinson days. His style and Newness of dancing around clearly unnerved some pitchers back then. Over the years though it lost that novelty, pitchers and catchers adapted and it became part of normal preparation.

There was a study in hardball times in 2006 that found there maybe a about a 1-2 run gain over a season depending upon how often a "basestealer" is on 1B. Keep in mind that having a player on 1B is a huge gain to a hitter since it moves the defense around.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-2/

 

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Last year, anything closer to average for our starting pitching versus a historically bad year would have put us in contention. We should have close to middle of the pack starting pitching with a little depth, a good bullpen and equal defense by replacing our two best defenders with two solid gloves. The biggest question will be run production. The offense does not project to where we were last year. Waiting around for Ryan and Prince to carry the load won't completely cut it...someone else will need to step up and exceed pre-season expectations. There's not much depth there either. I wonder if we could pick up another bat ala Felipe Lopez before the season starts.

[sheetskout]

We all have to hope that Corey Hart can return to his should-be normal form and that Rickie can stay healthy. I don't think that defensively we have lost a step as I think Gomez can fill in nicely for Cam and believe that Escobar is an upgrade over Hardy. Zaun for Kendall should be a wash. Kendall was overrated as a defender.

 

Offensively, I think we'll be better actually. Just not the same team that relied on the HR too much last season. We have a different look aside from Fielder and Braun now.

[logan82]

Our defense at each position according to UZR (negatives in parenthesis)

 

1B - 0.6 - equal

2B - 14.6 - worse even if Weeks step forward was for real, that was the best defense at 2B of any team in the majors

3B - (1.3) - maybe a slight improvement if McGehee is healthy I think he was about average in the minors

SS - 5.5 - probably about the same, that is my assumption until Escobar shows he is an elite defender

LF - (12.8) - ugh, hopefully Braun figures it out in LF, I am not hopeful

CF - 6.4 - better as long as Gomez starts most of the games, Gerut in CF last year was abysmal

RF - (3.9) - worse if Hart starts most of the games

 

I still say equal or slightly worse. It all depends on where Weeks, Escobar and McGehee are. Also depends if Gomez will hit enough for Macha to leave him in the lineup. Hopefully he gets most of the starts even if he doesn't hit.