Have the Brewers improved this offseason?

[RobertR]

I'm of the general idea that CF is in total worse, Escobar is probably a push at this point, Wolf and Zaun are improvements, Hawkins will help, 2B will probably turn out worse, and the starting pitching depth is still worrisome. An awful lot is relying on Parra and Bush to have much better years. To me, we're looking at a low to mid 80 wins club. Considering the division isn't very strong, that's probably enough to keep interest up through September.

 

I do think that Dave Cameron's article probably isn't clear. Are the Brewers "improved" and will the team win more games than 2009, don't necessarily have the same answers. If they brought back the whole team, i.e. the do nothing approach, would they get better results in 2010 is something to consider. Of course, that assumes it was even possible to bring back the whole team considering payroll contraints. I'm sure the Brewers know that Cameron is better than Gomez. Really Gomez and Gerut and other fallback options. But they probably can't sign Wolf, raise the pay for Prince and others, and do some of their other moves if they had kept Cameron.

 

Robert

[KCBrewerfan34]

This team can take a HUGE step forward if they can find a starter to replace Suppan. Somebody who can post a 4.25 ERA or better would be great!!

[endaround]

Where does Cameron having a low OBP come from? No he isn't Fielder or Braun even but .342 is fine. Gomez might break .300.

[Polish Falcons]

I am always an optimist about the Brewers but they will definitely be significantly better in 2010. First off they were pretty terrible in 2009 so the benchmark is rather low. The only downgrade I see from 2009 is Cameron's power at the plate and I don't even see that as a big loss.

 

As far as the rotation goes Gallardo has the potential to go from good to outstanding. Wolf is a significant upgrade over Looper even if he regresses back towards his career average. Bush is Bush. I don't think Parra or Suppan could possibly be any worse than they were in 2009. Parra has substantial room for improvement and I see Suppan as a serviceable #5 starter. If people are willing to accept that as his role and drop unrealistic expectations related to his bad contract then he might be fine. I do however think there's a good chance the Brewers will sign another low cost back of the rotation starter to add some depth and healthy competition, bumping Suppan out of the rotation to start the year and requiring Parra to perform in order to maintain a spot. The bullpen is outstanding and that is a solid offset to this rotation.

 

Braun and Fielder remain the heart of the lineup. Weeks has big time potential. Kendell and Hardy were absolute deadweight in 2009 whereas Zaun and Escobar will actually provide some benefit to the team. I don't really know what to think about Corey Hart anymore. Hopefully he is healthy and better in 10 which I believe is possible, but even if not then here is another guy who can't get much worse than he was in 09. If he does get worse then maybe we'll put Gamel out there to make the lineup better. I haven't seen enough of Gomez to know what to expect, but I have heard from Twins fans that he has great potential but makes stupid decisions in the batters box and on the base paths. That is the kind of thing that can and hopefully will change with experience.

 

The NL Central as a whole seems to be getting worse although it does look like the Cards will sign Holliday.

[Thurston Fluff]

I am always an optimist about the Brewers but they will definitely be significantly better in 2010.

 

A new playmate on the optimist's playground. Welcome feel free to use all the toys. They will be available it's not crowded over here.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[Flood Pants]

CF is a lot worse. Probably on the order of 20 runs. Replacing Looper with Wolf might close that gap, if Wolf has another good year. Hardy vs. Escobar may be a wash, but Escobar's offense could well make it a downgrade as well. Adding Hawkins and Zaun could close that gap. I think the team is probably about the same unless Bush and Parra step up, in which case they'd be better.

[MNBrew]

CF is a lot worse. Probably on the order of 20 runs. Replacing Looper with Wolf might close that gap, if Wolf has another good year. Hardy vs. Escobar may be a wash, but Escobar's offense could well make it a downgrade as well. Adding Hawkins and Zaun could close that gap. I think the team is probably about the same unless Bush and Parra step up, in which case they'd be better.

Not picking at your post, Flood. It was just the last one in the thread. I agree w/ many of your points:

 

- I think if Bush & Parra can pitch w/ ERAs even at the lousy 4.50 point, the team stands to be in much better shape.

- The less Suppan starts (unless he becomes a Piniero-like contract-year freak), the more the team stands to be better.

- If a healthy Looper could replace Suppan, that would help.

- At minimum, Hawkins replaces McClung &/or Smith/Burns/etc. That stands to be a major upgrade, as does having Vargas for the full year IF he pitches like he did once he arrived.

- Zaun wouldn't have to do much to be an upgrade from Kendall.

 

However...

 

I don't get the whole notion that Escobar's a downgrade from Hardy. It's apples & oranges. Hardy's much like Cameron: when he wasn't hitting for power, he wasn't doing much -- and that was way too much of the time. Hardy's OBP was lousy and even when he was hitting well, his BA w/ RISP was typically atrocious. I'll grant you that Escobar won't have much power for a while (if ever). But I cannot believe that if he hits well (BA-wise) & gets on base half decently beyond the BA, he's a downgrade from last year's crap-hitting Hardy solely due to the fact that he hits fewer HRs than J.J.

[Ennder]

But I cannot believe that if he hits well (BA-wise) & gets on base half decently beyond the BA, he's a downgrade from last year's crap-hitting Hardy solely due to the fact that he hits fewer HRs than J.J.

 

It is just a big if all around with him. From what I saw last year he isn't going to be a huge upgrade over Hardy defensively right away at least, the defense is probably a wash for 2010. Hardy obviously has the edge in power, so it is going to come down to how high of an OBP Escobar carries. Personally it won't surprise me if he struggles to put up a .320 OBP his first year, I could certainly see him being a downgrade over what Hardy did last year and he is almost certainly a large downgrade over Hardy of 07/08. But maybe he is like Hanley Ramirez who does better in the majors than minors and has no 'growth period'. It is always hard to tell with young players.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think they are slightly better. To make the jump to playoff contender again, like last year it will come down to Parra and Bush. Can Parra finally take that step forward and pitch to his talent and can Bush stay healthy and pitch like he did at the end of 08' and before his injury in 09'? If the answer is yes to those questions I really like this teams chances. If it is no, they may be an 80 win team again. We will see, that is why they play the games. Can't wait for April.

[MNBrew]

Good points, Ennder...

 

- I don't think anyone expects Escobar v.2010 to be on par w/ Hardy v.2007-08.

- Hardy v.2009 didn't hold a candle to Hardy v.2007-08, which has much to do w/ why Hardy will be wearing those new Twins threads in 2010.

 

The two most indisputable givens about Escobar are summarized in your 1st & last sentences:

 

- It is just a big IF all around because...

- It is always hard to tell with young players.

 

Because those things are SO true, until Escobar starts playing the 2010, I'll fervently disagree with everyone who thinks Escobar v.2010 will automatically be a downgrade from Hardy v.2009. Hardy v.2007-08 was top-notch, no doubt. But the Hardy who stunk in 2009 wasn't the same player. Escobar will be a different player, that's for sure. But different and worse are not inherently synonymous.

[TooLiveBrew]

Maybe I'm just a nut-case, but I really see Nick Swisher 2008 when I see J.J. Hardy 2009. I really expect him to bounce back in 2010 & beyond.

[Ennder]

Maybe I'm just a nut-case, but I really see Nick Swisher 2008 when I see J.J. Hardy 2009. I really expect him to bounce back in 2010 & beyond.

I'd be absolutely shocked if Hardy isn't one of the top 3 or maybe 4 best SS in the AL this season. To me he is a no-brainer bounce back candidate. I think Escobar of 2010 is almost certainly a downgrade from Hardy of 2010, he might be an upgrade over 2009 though.

[silversurferr]

Parra and Bush will be improved over last year. Parra could significantly improve. People forget or ignore that Gallardo is very young and should continue to improve. Wolf is a huge improvement over Looper. Suppan is Suppan. Pen looks solid. My big worry is that Hoffman crashes and burns. More than anything, bad closers crush souls.

[ILuvDaBush]

Last year's over-achievers:

 

1. Casey at Bat

2. Mark DiFelice

3. Craig Counsell

4. Mitch Stetter

5. Todd Coffey

5a. Felipe Lopez

 

Our bullpen could implode as quickly as Jorge Julio, but we are covered with Hawkins and Gamel in the equation. Counsell '09/DiFelice will undoubtedly be missed, but with Wolf going deeper into games, we have upgraded Looper/Bullpen Option A implicitly. And Prince and Braun are just now entering their primes. Predicting their curves is foolish. Prince could well develop into one of the greatest power hitters of the last hundred years. Youngest ever to hit 50HR.

[joepepsi]

Maybe I'm just a nut-case, but I really see Nick Swisher 2008 when I see J.J. Hardy 2009. I really expect him to bounce back in 2010 & beyond.

The difference with Swisher's bad 2008 is he maintained his patience at the plate. His obp was still 120 points higher than his .219 batting average. Players with that kind of patience are far more likely to bounce back from a down batting average year. I'm not convinced Hardy will ever duplicate his 2008 season.

[Ennder]

If you adjust Hardy's 2009 line to his 'expected BABIP' he has a .271/.344/399 line even if you just assume all the extra hits are singles. His BB rate actually increased in 2009 and his infield flies dropped a lot. He might not put up 2008 stats but he should be closer to 2008 than 2009.

[danzig6767]

Maybe I'm just a nut-case, but I really see Nick Swisher 2008 when I see J.J. Hardy 2009. I really expect him to bounce back in 2010 & beyond.

The difference with Swisher's bad 2008 is he maintained his patience at the plate. His obp was still 120 points higher than his .219 batting average. Players with that kind of patience are far more likely to bounce back from a down batting average year. I'm not convinced Hardy will ever duplicate his 2008 season.

It wasn't just 2008 that Hardy had a good season though. In 2007 Hardy hit 26 homers with a .786 OPS, which is above average production for a shortstop at the plate. If Hardy can duplicate even just the 2007 season, i'm sure the Twins will be thrilled. If i was a Twins fan, i'd love the Hardy trade.

[joepepsi]

It wasn't just 2008 that Hardy had a good season though. In 2007 Hardy hit 26 homers with a .786 OPS, which is above average production for a shortstop at the plate. If Hardy can duplicate even just the 2007 season, i'm sure the Twins will be thrilled. If i was a Twins fan, i'd love the Hardy trade.

I agree. They haven't had a good answer at ss for a few years. Hardy will give them a good glove and hopefully get back some of his power. Gomez may develop into a special player, but he wasn't much with the Twins and they have OF depth.

[RobDeer 45]

I think we improved overall but it will be interesting to see who steps up for us this year. Getting Weeks back (and hopefully healthy and playing well) is huge. If Parra and Yo take steps forward it will be big for us as well. I'm nervous about Casey following up last year and Gomez will be up and down. Add an arm or two and we should have a shot to add wins to last years total.

[paul253]

I thought I'd dig up this thread again now that Doug Davis has signed. Melvin did exactly what I thought he needed to, which was upgrade the rotation some more. Davis isn't exactly a Cy Young candidate, but I think he's capable of putting up an ERA under 4. That's a full run + over what Suppan did last year, assuming Davis is able to do it, which is huge. RobDeer put it well when he said it'll be interesting to see who steps up. Other than Fielder and Braun, there are a lot of questions offensively. If Weeks, Gomez and Escobar can get on base and use there speed the cause opposing pitchers problems it'll be huge. And if Manny Parra can throw strikes like he's capable of, the rotation just might be good enough to compete. Either way, I applaud Melvin for making another move with the rotation.

[sheethead]

Not that it matters much, but I think the Brewers have improved enough for me to be excited for the season again. Sure would stink to be a Royals fan though.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think our offense has taken a step down, but imo the pitching has a chance to be in the top of the NL after being at the bottom in 2009. It largely hinges on how well Bush rebounds from injury & whether or not Parra takes the step forward that I expect him to. Adding Wolf & Davis, while not frontline starters, gives the Crew two guys that pretty consistently give you good performance. With (what I expect) some natural progression from both Yo & Manny, along with a healthy Dave Bush, I think our pitching has the ability to be 180 degrees better than it was last season, which would probably actually make up for the step back in terms of the offense.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The main thing you gotta look at with the pitching is that Wolf and Davis will be replacing Suppan and Looper, who both had horrible ERA's last year, which both Wolf and Davis might be able to lower be over a run. That is a huge difference for the rotation, and you also gotta figure that Bush will at least be decent, or improve, and that Parra will improve. That makes our rotation significantly better than last year. The offense might be slightly worse, but then again they will bring a different dimension with the running game. I think that if Escobar, Weeks, and Gomez can get on base consistently, or at least 2 of them can, then we will be in good shape. I expect Hart to bounce back from last year as well. So I see the offense as a wash, and the pitching as much improved. Hopefully, that will lead to us competing again this year.

[jrodbrewcrew]

I like how pitching the pitching situation has been addressed. Wolf and Davis bring some consistency (hopefully) to this group. It'll be nice to have a little bit of depth that could be counted on in a pinch, instead of having to resort to Villy, Burns, etc., when they were going to only give you 4-5 innings max. As for the rest of the lineup, it'll be interesting to see if Macha does start using some of the young legs on the bases to put some pressure on the opposing pitching and defenses. Side note on the payroll, it sounds as though there should be some wiggle room if they're in the race at mid-season, and I like those chances.

[paul253]

it'll be interesting to see if Macha does start using some of the young

legs on the bases to put some pressure on the opposing pitching and

defenses.

 

He'd better. I wouldn't surprised at all to see only two players hit over 20 home runs this season so Macha had better figure out a way to score consistently.