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Mets Sign Jason Bay, 4yrs/$66M guaranteed


crewcrazy

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We'll see how his defense does in Citifield. The Monster did not help him, and his defense has been pretty bad the last 3 years. The HR stopping ability of Citi is going to hurt him a lot, too.

 

I think that Bay has a decent number of places that he fits extremely well, and the Mets don't seem to be one of them.

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Without looking up park factors, and only going off of dimensions, PNC Park isn't exactly a RH hitter's paradise, either. Bay managed to put up some very impressive numbers there (outside of 2007, which was an uncharacteristically down year). I think the Mets will likely get upper or mid-.800s OPS production out of Bay for the duration of the contract (assuming he stays healthy). That's about as nicely as they can hope to do imo, given their ballpark. I do have to agree with crewcrazy that this seems like a move made out of desparation, rather than one with a strong plan in mind.
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My gut reaction is that this is an overpay. I don't think Bay projects to be much more than a 3-win player for the next four seasons, as he is already 31 years old. Unfortunately, this will lower the price it takes for the Cardinals to reel in Holliday. I don't see any other suitors for him, unless someone is lurking (C'mon Royals, you know you want him!).
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Without looking up park factors, and only going off of dimensions, PNC Park isn't exactly a RH hitter's paradise, either. Bay managed to put up some very impressive numbers there (outside of 2007, which was an uncharacteristically down year).
If I'm remembering this correctly, the Mets' hope/rationalization was that Citi Field isn't that bad for a pure right-handed pull-hitter like Bay. It definitely hurt a guy like David Wright, whose power is pretty evenly distributed, but if Bay is going to homer it's most likely to left field and they're hoping the gaps won't affect him as much.

 

Of course, defense in that stadium is going to be a problem. They better hope Beltran is able to stay healthy and is willing to cover some extra ground, because it could get ugly out there. I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish that contract at first base, honestly.

"[baseball]'s a stupid game sometimes." -- Ryan Braun

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Jason Bay is stupid for leaving the Red Sox. The Mets don't always contend, and the Citi Field will kill his production. Bay had it really good in Boston, and it is a shame that he threw it all away for a little bit extra money.

 

How many millions does a person need?

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What I heard from a Sawx fan on another forum is...
the word around here is that Bay and Boston had a deal on an extension around or during the AS break. After the required physical, the Sox didn't like the look of something and backed out. This angered Bay and here we are.
Obviously I don't have any kind of insider access, so take that as you will.
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I would say Bay isn't a good fielder although I am not sure how UZR handles balls off the monster. I know that Dewan made a "Manny" adjustment and didn't count balls off the outfield wall when evaluating a player. This made guys playing in Fenway and Minute Maid look better. I wouldn't trust UZR for players who play in a park with irregularly small outfields. Bay wasn't a good fielder in PNC either and not getting younger so it is probably a safe bet he isn't a good fielder.

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I blame Wang.

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Looking at the Mets' track record over the past 10 years -- ability to win consistently vs. the $$$ they spend on big-name acquisitions -- two things would seem to stand out:

 

1. The Mets' spending seems very inefficient for the amount of time these big moves result in contender status.

 

2. No FA should want to sign with the Mets if winning matters at all more than money does.

 

What Bay's acceptance of the Mets' contract proposal means is that it was really all about the money. That team still has more holes than my 7-year-old socks. And even if they didn't, well, they're still the Mets. If it'd been any other NL East team the Brewers would've needed to have lose so they could make the '08 playoffs, the Brewers probably wouldn't have made it. The Mets being the Mets, you just knew the Brewers had a good chance once they finished off the Cubs that wonderful Sunday.

 

Good luck in Queens, Mr. Bay. You're really gonna need it.

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Jason would have been dumb to walk away from this. Seems like the Mets sort of bid against themselves and Bay got some serious coin. Chances are this is a once in a lifetime deal for him...and the Mets will still struggle.
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Was there anyone offering anything close to what he got? Seems almost like A-Rod back in the day where Boras pitted the Rangers against...the Rangers.

 

Boston offered 4/$60 at the very start of the offseason, if not in the middle of season. Bay rejected the offer, basically feeling it was a low-ball offer -- he wanted 5 years all along, if I remember correctly. It's kind of funny, because the Mets' initial offer of 4/$65 was basically seen as a token "Hey fans, we're trying" offer, but as Bay sat on it no better offers came along. I guess you could say they were bidding against themselves by adding the vesting option for the 5th year, but their final offer wasn't much different than their original offer.

"[baseball]'s a stupid game sometimes." -- Ryan Braun

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I don't think this signing is that bad. We have to remember the Mets are a big market team that can afford contracts like this. They might be overpaying a bit on an annual basis, but so what? I doubt Bay is going to have his production just drop off a cliff, but if he does, they can just eat the contract.
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