Neat Manny Parra Article

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009. He is a good bet for improvement for two reasons: he suffered from bad luck in 2008 - a high HR/FB and a very-high BABIP - so he figures to improve upon his ERA simply due to regression to the mean; and he is also a good bet to improve in his actual skill, due to his track record and age.

A combination of improvement and regression should lead to Manny Parra being a steal in 2009.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/the-curious-case-of-manny-parra/

[logan82]

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009

 

Several posters have said that here. TheCrew07 immediately comes to mind. Parra is the type of pitcher we should be targeting, yet he has constantly been bandied about as someone we should be trading for a sure thing. I personally think we are on the outside looking in and Parra is the type of guy we should be trading for/hanging onto to build towards the future.

[LouisEly]

Or me - I have mentioned several times that if there is a 2010 Edwin Jackson out there Parra fits the profile as much as everyone. Remember - he was pitching with some type of shoulder/arm discomfort this year that he had minor surgery on after the year was over. I was at the game in LA and he dominated - the key was the first time through the order was fastball/curve, then the 2nd time through he added the change, then the third time through added the splitter, which kept the hitters off-balance each time up. If Zaun/whomever calls the game like that I think he can have a very good year.

[thebruce44]

Sometimes I wonder if being around CC actually hurt his growth as a pitcher. He has all the talent in the world to succeed, he just needs to put it together. Maybe Peterson will be able to help him too.

[Ennder]

I think parra should start the year in AAA personally which means signing another SP. It is simply amazing how terrible his fastball has been statistically the past 2 seasons, he needs to figure out how to control it or how to get more movement on it.

[JohnBriggs12]

Isn't the time for talking about Parra over?

 

His troubles last year weren't the result of bad luck. He showed awful command. He walked 77 hitters in 140 innings. When he wasn't walking guys, he was getting behind them and coming in with, as Ennder points out, a very straight, very hittable fastball and that's why his BABIP was high.

 

Yes we can hope he finds consistent command, but until he does, he's a bad pitcher. It's that simple.

[dlk9s]

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009

 

Several posters have said that here. TheCrew07 immediately comes to mind. Parra is the type of pitcher we should be targeting, yet he has constantly been bandied about as someone we should be trading for a sure thing. I personally think we are on the outside looking in and Parra is the type of guy we should be trading for/hanging onto to build towards the future.

Keep in mind that when the article's author says "targeting," he's talking about fantasy baseball.

[silversurferr]

Great article! Confirms what I saw (way too much) from Parra last year; nibble with junk, get behind, hittable fastball down middle. Hopefully new pitching coach Peterson can help Parra either gain movement on fastball or locate it better. Hint, throw the fastball on or off the inside corner more often.

[HiAndTight]

I think people can be all too harsh on young pitchers, and even more than that, young left handed pitchers forgetting just how common it is for them to take longer to develop for whatever reason.

 

 

Parra's biggest problem was himself last year, but he also was clearly a victim of bad luck as well.

[Invader3K]

I hope Parra gets more aggressive this year.

 

One of my most prominent memories this year was sitting two rows behind the home dugout, during a Manny Parra start. He came in after a rough half inning, and I distinctly saw the look of fear on his face. I hope he gets over his mental hangups, and maybe Peterson can help him realize his potential.

[battlekow]

Keep in mind that when the article's author says "targeting," he's talking about fantasy baseball.

He's also repeating a quote from the 2008 offseason--it's not about "targeting" Parra for 2010, but 2009.

[Funketown]

His troubles last year weren't the result of bad luck. He showed awful command. He walked 77 hitters in 140 innings. When he wasn't walking guys, he was getting behind them and coming in with, as Ennder points out, a very straight, very hittable fastball and that's why his BABIP was high.

For pitchers with over 300 IP's, Parra has the highest career BABIP for any major league pitcher since the turn of the century. The 20th century, that is.

 

I think there is no question that there is variance in pitchers true BABIP 'abilities', for lack of a better word. However, arguing that Parra's stuff has lead him to having the highest BABIP in Major League Baseball since Grover Cleveland was our president would seem to be a bit facetious.

 

Here are a few pitchers I've looked up on Fangraphs, along with their career BABIP's.

Jeff Suppan: .301

Pedro Martinez: .291

Roger Clemens: .294

Braden Looper: .295

Randy Johnson: .302

Claudio Vargas: .292

Nick Blackburn: .312

Jason Marquis: .288

Gavin Floyd: .290

 

It certainly doesn't appear to be the case that the more hittable pitchers allow more hits on balls in play.

 

Edit: Just ran a regression analysis on excel for 2009 MLB pitchers with over 150 IP's to check the relationship between Fangraphs' wFB and BABIP. The results were a correlation coefficient of .356 and an R^2 of .127.

[HiAndTight]

The problem is, it's counter intuitive to believe that BABIP isn't a matter of luck, but rather a result of throwing meetballs, but the fact is, when you see enough evidence to tell you that's really not the case, at some point you have to succomb to that evidence.

[davemakovec]

There are two things that I want to mention:

 

1. Someone mentioned Parra coming out after a bad half-inning with a look of fear on his face. Someone else noticed earlier in the season that when Parra was on, he was pitching steadily, taking his signs, and moving at a quick pace. When he was off, he was pacing the mound, shaking off signs, and generally taking his sweet Doug Davis-esque time out there.

 

2. When people say lefties take longer to develop, it might just be because coaches give lefties every chance in the world to succeed.

[bjkrautk]

The problem is, it's counter intuitive to believe that BABIP isn't a matter of luck, but rather a result of throwing meetballs, but the fact is, when you see enough evidence to tell you that's really not the case, at some point you have to succomb to that evidence.

This is my problem with BABIP. Where a ball is hit to isn't a matter of pure 'luck,' so much as an excessive number of variables which seem random to the naked eye. The most obvious factor affecting BABIP is where the pitch crosses the plate; this is a factor that the pitcher has exclusive control over. In Parra's case, he leaves the fastball down the heart of the plate more often than most pitchers, so it makes logical sense that he gets cuffed around more with that pitch than the average pitcher. There are other factors as to how the pitch gets hit (whether the hitter is taking a pitch to work the count, the timing, recognition, & skill of the hitter, etc.), but if you throw bad pitches, you should expect to get hit around a bit more.

 

If Parra is able to spot his fastball better, or pick up some movement on the pitch (a la Doug Davis' cutter), then his numbers should regress towards the mean. My opinion on the effectiveness of Petersen as Pitching Coach is going to be shaped considerably by how well Parra throws next year, for this very reason.

[RobDeer 45]

I know we've been saying this for a long time on this board but man, if Parra gets on track and becomes what many think he can, the rotation looks a lot better. Kind of exciting to think about.

[The Truth]

Parra looks like a career AAAA pitching 5.25 ERA 1.55 WHIP type of guy, at best, to me.

 

As a die-hard Brewers fan, I hope to be proven wrong

[joepepsi]

Parra looks like a career AAAA pitching 5.25 ERA 1.55 WHIP type of guy, at best, to me.

 

As a die-hard Brewers fan, I hope to be proven wrong.

He looks to me like someone who was bothered by an injury last year and the team wanted him to pitch through it. His minor league career ERA is 3.06. He K'd almost a batter an inning in the minors and walked only 2.5 per 9. His fastball goes well into the 90's doesn't it? That doesn't seem like the profile of a AAAA pitcher.

 

Last year was the first year he ever struggle with control. His K rate was way down. When this suddenly happens to a pitcher it's often the result of some sort of injury. Last season I expected to hear at any moment that he had an elbow injury and was facing TJ surgery.

[Invader3K]

Having Manny Parra just be "solid" this year would be a nice surprise, and be a tremendous boost to the rotation. I hope he can pull it together. Maybe Peterson will bring some new philosophies and techniques that will help him out. I would think Parra would pretty much be priority #1 for Peterson this off-season.

[TheCrew07]

In regards to acquiring a Parra like player... yes I think given the circumstances that's the best Melvin would be able to do. People seem to want a polished "sure thing"... well outside of Fielder and Braun no trade is going to bring back a super prospect of that magnitude. I love David Price, always have, and I admit I'm partially to lefties being one myself, but even he was very up and down in his first year and TB traded Jackson to make room for him.

 

As far as Parra's BABIP... it's not luck, and over a large sample BABIP isn't representative of luck, rather it represents performance. Manny nibbles way too much, get's down in the count, and then comes back with a meatball that I'd expect a good portion of the baseball players on this forum could at least make contact with. Even when Manny is up 0-2 or 1-2 he seems to end up in way too many full counts for my taste. I'd just rather he attack hitters like his stuff warrants. Salome and Escobar weren't lucky in 2008 anymore than Parra was unlucky in 2009, Manny gets way too much of the plate with balls that are up in the zone and until he stops putting pitches there, he's going to get hit hard.

 

This notion of "luck" in regards to baseball performance and statistical analysis really gets in my craw, it's become an easy way to dismiss both the hot and cold player as both will "regress towards the mean".... that's a genius observation... how many players are capable of hitting over .400 for a season or under .200 for an entire season? Part of me misses the days when we could have an intelligent conversation about a hot or cold player without some of sort BABIP regression analysis being thrown into the mix, especially since I strongly disagree with the way BABIP is measured and used. There is a root cause other than luck or BABIP regression to be found, unfortunately many don't care to look past a statistical measure, such is the modern baseball way.

[Invader3K]

Well, I said repeatedly before Opening Day last season that it was foolish of the Brewers to count on both Gallardo and Parra to be bullwarks of the rotation. Neither had pitched an entire season as a starter in their careers. Gallardo worked out, and obviously Parra didn't. It's hard to say Parra's season last year was an aberration when their is no lengthy track record to point to.

[Funketown]

As far as Parra's BABIP... it's not luck, and over a large sample BABIP isn't representative of luck, rather it represents performance. Manny nibbles way too much, get's down in the count, and then comes back with a meatball that I'd expect a good portion of the baseball players on this forum could at least make contact with. Even when Manny is up 0-2 or 1-2 he seems to end up in way too many full counts for my taste.

The problem with this idea that players have high BABIP's because they get "hit hard", and throw meatballs, is that when watching a game, we subjectively determine within our minds whether or not a player is being hit hard or is tossing meatballs.

[Ennder]

There is a root cause other than luck or BABIP regression to be found, unfortunately many don't care to look past a statistical measure, such is the modern baseball way.

 

Don't get your opinion confused with fact because many people completely disagree with you and they just aren't wrong because you disagree with it. You can believe that variance plays no role in baseball but the burden of proof is really on you and not those who say it exists. Regardless of the cause of BABIP it is a FACT(not an opinion) that it regresses towards certain ranges and unless Parra is completely outside historical norms we shouldn't expect his BABIP to stay as high as it is. Even horrible pitchers who flame out don't keep BABIP that high.

 

Personally I don't know how you can watch baseball and not think there is a lot of variance in the results(what most people call luck), especially when you are talking about pitching. You can make a perfect pitch and have a guy hit it out and then the next pitcher throws him a complete meatball and he pops it up. That is just how the game works. You can throw a great pitch that gets hit weakly but finds a hole and the next pitcher throws a terrible pitch that gets lined right at someone. These things don't magically even out over just 200 IP, it takes longer than that.

[LouisEly]

Just curious - what was Edwin Jackson's career BABIP, WHIP, and ERA prior to the 2009 season and based on that what were his projections for the 2009 season?

 

Prior to the 2009 season, I see numbers that look a lot like Manny Parra's the last two years.

[TheCrew07]

Don't get your opinion confused with fact because many people completely disagree with you

I'm not confusing my opinion with anything, it's laughable to me that people believe doing simple math means they know more about the game than people actually playing it. Anyone who's played baseball knows that being in a slump is more than just luck, or being hot at the plate is more than just luck. The game is all about location, sure you're going to get hits making bad contact and have hits taken away, that's the nature of the beast when the odds are stacked against you.

 

I get regression as it's a very simple concept, but how about instead of running to the luck card every time events are difficult to explain we take a deeper look? PitchF/X is where the focus should be, location, velocity differential between pitches, break on the pitch, etc.. If you're a pitcher getting lit up chances are you're leaving the ball up in the zone. it's that simple. That's not bad luck, it's bad pitching. Then the question should be "What's the problem?". Is the arm slot inconsistent? Is the stride too short? Is the pitcher aiming his pitches instead of throwing them? For example, Parra tops out around 96 MPH on his fastball, so when you see fastballs only hitting 88 on the gun after throwing 92-94 the previous inning either he's hurt or he's aiming his pitches. It's not rocket science by any stretch, and it's a problem that translates across just about any sport... when you aim a pitch, or a shot in basketball, or a throw in football, 99% of the time you're going to short arm it which results in a loss of velocity and accuracy. It's backwards but normally the harder you try be precise, the worse you do. You can say what you want about Parra based on paper, you can believe what you want, but I've been fortunate enough to know former professional athletes personally and I've been able to pick their brains about the games and sports in general.

 

There is a happy middle ground here between talent, mechanics, statistics, and the mental side of sports, no one aspect holds all of the cards. Statistics just measure the end result, physical talent is very difficult to quantify unless you're sitting there in person, mechanics/fundamentals are a bit easier to dissect, but sometimes a mechanical issue is actually a mental issue like in the case of aiming a pitch. The mental side is probably the most difficult to quantify, but I firmly believe it's the most important aspect of any athlete's success at any level. That's how guys like a Brady Clark who don't have near the physical gifts of the players they are competing against can have success, but it's also why they tend to fade quickly, because it's very difficult to maintain your mental edge in a game where you're always going to fail more than you succeed. Once the edge is gone, the career is over.

 

Outside of FIP which is probably weighted too heavily towards strike outs most every metric is going to tell you Parra stunk last year, but they aren't going to tell you why, and that's the most important question that needs to be answered. LHP that can run the ball up to the plate in the mid to upper 90s are a rare commodity, his physical talent isn't the issue. So what is the issue? I guess that depends on what you believe... I know Peterson believes that Parra pitches up in the zone too much because his BAA when pitching around the knees is better than the league average. That's kind of analysis I'm into and while I'm not sure how much difference his coaching will make, I really like his approach to the game, he carries a good mix of everything and tries to focus it all on location and pitch selection. However there are people that will tell you the effects of location and pitch selection are negligible because someone hasn't figured out to represent it mathematically yet, every pitcher is going to miss their spots, and pitch selection is an old dated concept like base stealing. I unable to prove it to be true, but I know it in my heart from having played the game, coached the game, and listened to people who have played and coached at much higher levels than me... pitching and by extension hitting is all about location and pitch selection.

 

We can argue all we want about BABIP but if a MLB hitter isn't able to hit a belt high fastball right down the middle of the plate they wouldn't be there facing Manny to begin with, every MLB player can hit a grooved fastball, that's not luck, it's an easily defined/observed skill on the hitter's part.