Juan Pierre

[Team Canada]

Uh oh, someone's trying to use Joe Morgan to prove a point..

[BillScottCanRake]

During the ALCS, the Fox broadcast team questioned Milton Bradley running with Frank Thomas at the plate. One of the reasons they sited was his running being a distraction for Thomas.

[homer]

I think the only guy I've ever heard of that like guys running while he was batting was Tony Gwynn because it opened up holes for him. The thing is, most guys can't hit the ball exactly where they want to.

[rluzinski]

When I say that, it's not so much about stolen bases as it is the ability to take an extra base, I like having more guys you can send home on a ball hit in the gap, etc.

 

Base advancement has been studies to death. Dan Fox has done excellant work in that regard. He first came up with a metric he calls "Incremental runs", (IR) which tells you how much above average value (in terms of runs) a player adds from basepath advancement on hits. Here's the leader list from 2000 - 2004, in terms of IR:

 

LINK

 

Pierre is the best! Since then, he's come up with a more comprehensive approach at measuring speed on the basepaths (he writes for BP now, so I haven't followed his recent work very closely). It includes advancements on hits, outs and base stealing.

 

Here's that list:

 

LINK

 

Pierre is still high on the list but he kills himself in base stealing attempts (-8.9 runs). According to Fox, the net run value above average of his speed on the basepaths from 2000-2005 is 18.5 runs. That's on average, worth about 2 wins over the course of 6 years. I stress average because he isn't looking at actual game situations, with regard to the outcome of of the games Pierre was in. Still, it gives us an idea of the magnitude of his base running value. Even if you trippled that number, it's pretty darn small.

[aracko]

Quote:

---

When I say that, it's not so much about stolen bases as it is the ability to take an extra base, I like having more guys you can send home on a ball hit in the gap, etc.

 

Base advancement has been studies to death. Dan Fox has done excellant work in that regard. He first came up with a metric he calls "Incremental runs", (IR) which tells you how much above average value (in terms of runs) a player adds from basepath advancement on hits. Here's the leader list from 2000 - 2004, in terms of IR:

 

LINK

 

Pierre is the best! Since then, he's come up with a more comprehensive approach at measuring speed on the basepaths (he writes for BP now, so I haven't followed his recent work very closely). It includes advancements on hits, outs and base stealing.

 

Here's that list:

 

LINK

 

Pierre is still high on the list but he kills himself in base stealing attempts (-8.9 runs). According to Fox, the net run value above average of his speed on the basepaths from 2000-2005 is 18.5 runs. That's on average, worth about 2 wins over the course of 6 years. I stress average because he isn't looking at actual game situations, with regard to the outcome of of the games Pierre was in. Still, it gives us an idea of the magnitude of his base running value. Even if you trippled that number, it's pretty darn small.

---

 

 

Dude - Your baseball knowledge (as well as most here) is flat out incredible.

 

(fixed quote -TC)

[splitterpfj]

Looking at those studies Russ provided, Pierre appeals to me a lot more than he did before...just don't let him attempt as many steals. I think if his steal attempts were dictated to him, he could be an excellent addition.

 

I still don't like his arm, or the dollars likely involved, but I never liked Carlos Lee's arm at all either and I can acknowledge the benefits of having him in the lineup.

[sbrylski]

There are factors, strategies and gameplanning at play on the field when you have a player such as Juan Pierre on base, even if the statistics point to the batters not succeeding as well.

 

I don't understand. If the runner is affecting the strategies and gameplanning of the defense, it would show up in the statistics.

 

It may affect the defense's strategy, but that doesn't mean its going to give your offense an big advantage. Any offensive advantage recieved is going to be fairly small.

[colbyjack]

don't understand. If the runner is affecting the strategies and gameplanning of the defense, it would show up in the statistics.

 

Everything shows up in statistics, right? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I alluded to this in my comments above, as the defensive positioning and the propensity of fastballs in theory should give the batter a natural advantage with a speedy runner on base, but as russ and others have continually pointed out, it doesn't.

 

It's pretty simple. With base-stealing threats on base, a pitcher is likely to throw more fastballs since fastballs reach the plate quicker (and straighter) and gives the catcher a better chance at throwing out the opposing baserunner. In addition, many teams like to call pitchouts with basestealing threats on, which of course gives the batter a free ball, another natural advantage. Shortstops and second basemen have to cheat closer to the second base bag since they have less time to get there with a faster baserunner, either in a steal attempt or a double play situation, meaning there are more open holes on the left and/or right side of the infield.

 

Homer actually hit on it perfectly when he said this:

 

I think the only guy I've ever heard of that like guys running while he was batting was Tony Gwynn because it opened up holes for him. The thing is, most guys can't hit the ball exactly where they want to.

 

While Tony Gwynn could hit the ball wherever he wanted to, a lot of it had to do with not drastically changing his approach. How many batters are trying to do something other than what they would normally do with a runner in motion? If most batters were able to focus, not worry about the baserunner and wait for a good pitch to hit like they would in any other situation, they likely would fare better in such a situation (and again, in theory, they should) because they have a pretty good idea of what is coming (fastball) regardless of the count. Pitchers don't like spiking breaking balls in the dirt with runners like Pierre, Reyes or Crawford on the base.

[sbrylski]

It's pretty simple. With base-stealing threats on base, a pitcher is likely to throw more fastballs since fastballs reach the plate quicker (and straighter) and gives the catcher a better chance at throwing out the opposing baserunner. In addition, many teams like to call pitchouts with basestealing threats on, which of course gives the batter a free ball, another natural advantage. Shortstops and second basemen have to cheat closer to the second base bag since they have less time to get there with a faster baserunner, either in a steal attempt or a double play situation, meaning there are more open holes on the left and/or right side of the infield.

 

You're saying all these factors add up to give the batter an advantage, but they don't. The batter's preformance is virtually unaffected.

 

You seem to make the same point as me in your first paragraph, and then make the opposite point in the second paragraph.

[colbyjack]

sbrylski06, I started off by saying IN THEORY these things should help a batter, but they don't, which I have recognized more than a few times already in this thread.

[And That]

Juan Pierre would be a really great #8 hitter on a solid NL club. That's about it. I wouldn't want him as a leadoff hitter unless my (presently non-existent) hitting coach promised me he could get on-base at a .360+ clip.

 

Take some more walks, Juan. Use your legs.

[mothershipconnection]

Juan Pierre would be a really great #8 hitter on a solid NL club.

That'd probably be really good for him, since the speed would be useful in moving over on bunts laid down by pitchers. Plus, he could steal with less of a detriment, since it doesn't usually matter if a pitcher takes an extra strike or not - he's gonna K anyway.

[sbrylski]

sbrylski06, I started off by saying IN THEORY these things should help a batter, but they don't, which I have recognized more than a few times already in this thread.

 

My bad for the confusion. I was misinterpreting your post.

[rluzinski]

If Pierre was a good defender, I'd be all over him. The fact that he's average at best out of there and has some holes in his swing... no thanks.

[Gone]

If Pierre was a good defender, I'd be all over him. The fact that he's average at best out of there and has some holes in his swing... no thanks.

 

"if" Pierre was a good defender and didn't have the holes in his swing and had an OBP of .375+ this discussion probably wouldn't even be happening because he'd be looking at a MUCH larger pay day than he already is and probably be out of the Brewers price range.

[endaround]

Which is why I don't understand why you want to bring in such a mediocre player whose only tool is severly overrated. Gabe Gross would do just as well at 1/10th to 1/20th of the cost.

[splitterpfj]

Pierre to Dodgers?

 

www.rotoworld.com/content/HeadLines.aspx?sport=MLB

[brettac1]

The only time I'll ever pull for Ned Colletti.

[reillymcshane]

Fox is saying Pierre to the Dodgers too.

 

msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6191380

[1992casey]

$9 million per year for as long as five seasons? We need an emoticon that vomits.

[brewerfan82]

If Pierre's getting $9mil for possibly 5 seasons... I don't know if I want Roberts for what it might cost...

 

Hopefully, if the Brewers are really pushing for his services, one of two things happen:

• Roberts age and lesser known name will drive his price down to something like 2 years $8-10 ($4-5 per). Or...
• Pierre's contract outprices Roberts for us and we consider alternative options.

I really don't want to overpay for Roberts...especially when we have in house options.

[reillymcshane]

I'm reading that, ultimately, Roberts will probably get 3 years/$15 million. With Pierre off the market, it trims CFs down to Roberts and Matthews, and Matthews likely get near $10 million from someone (Giants?). It just takes one team to make things go bonkers. It's what it took us to get Damien Miller two years ago. No one else would go 3 years. Might be what it takes to make it happen.