Prince to Boston

[TheCrew07]

I would much rather trade Prince today to Texas than to Boston. I've coveted Feliz for the better part of 2 years now, ever since I started researching him after the Teixeira trade. His secondary stuff needs work, but my goodness is he talented:

 

http://www.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090804&content_id=6233246&vkey=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex

 

Sorry for the crappy link, you'll probably have to cut and paste it, I'm at work and WYSIWYG editor doesn't work for me here.

 

I'd wet my pants for Smoak and Feliz. Smoak did get beat up a little bit in the PCL and he won't hit for Fielder's power, but he's a talented player.

 

I really don't see a match with Boston if they are intent on upgrading the position this off season, let them trade with SD, as I'm not as high on Anderson as some are.

[SoCalBrewfan]

or Prince I might give up something like Ells, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, and another prospect (not named Westmoreland, Kelly, or Reddick). That night bot be quite enough though. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.

 

I just don't think Ellsbury is that special, so if he's a key part of a deal I pass. Lars Anderson seems like a middling prospect at this point. If Boston is constructing an offer with those guys and second-tier pitching I think you hang up without even making a counteroffer. Maybe a team like San Diego with huge holes at multiple spots would feel differently, and be looking to make a Sexson style deal for multiple patches, but the Brewers would be carving a big hole in the heart of what they should be viewing as a possible playoff team...and at the moment Fielder is one of the better hitters around...he's the rare commodity, and one for which a team like Boston should (IMO) be willing to pay quite a premium. A team trading for Prince shouldn't be able to do so without giving up something they'll miss...and I don't see anything the Red Sox would miss in this offer.

[804Sox]

Ok. I've been thinking about this since my post last night, and I think the best comp for a trade of Fielder would be Miggy Cabrera. Both were young, talented power hitters with long-term questions about body-type/defensive positioning and several years of team control remaining (2 for Fielder and 3 for Cabrera). In Dec. 2007 Cabrera returned:

 

Andrew Miller (2nd in 06-07 offseason)

Cameron Maybin (1st in 06-07 offseason - 6th overall in 07-08)

Dallas Trahern (8th in 06-07 offseason)

Eulogio de la Cruz (6th in 06-07 offseason)

Burke Badenhop

Mike Rabello

 

based on the timing of the trade, they didn't appear in either team's top 10 list in the 07-08 offseason, and while Maybin was 6th overall, he was the only player of the 6 in baseball's top 100 prospects in 07-08. Also Cabrera was traded with Dontrelle Willis who, despite coming off a bad year, was only 1 year removed from a phenomenal season, and the common perception was that he just needed a change of scenery and a winning environment. So, If we assume that Dontrelle might have returned Andrew Miller and Mike Rabello, that leaves:

 

Cabrera for Maybin, Trahern, De La Cruz, and Badenhop - an A prospect, 2 Bs and a C.

 

Accordingly, I think Ellsbury cold fill the role of A prospect. He was rated among the top 20 prospects in baseball his last year in the minors and, unlike some top prospects, has had a successful major league career so far, providing great speed and decent hitting at a tough defensive positon. I would also be willing to replace Ells with Casey Kelly - also probably an A prospect, though not as good as Maybin was. Bowden and Lars would be the B prospects - both were in the top 100 entering the season, and Lars was top 20. The C prospect could be any number of players. Kyle Weiland, Stephen Fife, Derrik Gibson, etc.

 

Obviously personal preference would dictate the specific player in the deal, but I think that these guys fit the values of what would be expected in return.

 

Edit: I think it's important to point out that I've said multiple times before that I don't think the Brewers should trade Fielder because they are a playoff contender right now and would likely be less so without him. I also disagree that Ellsbury is not special. He's a very good offensive player for a CF, and plays good defense there (despite his UZR this year). Also, unlike even the top prospects, he's a sure thing. his floor is high.

[nate82]

The Marlins don't always go after the best prospects and Willis was more of a salary dump than anything else. The Tigers were not even asking for Willis if I remember the trade correctly. Willis really was just a throw in salary dump and the Marlins believe he was done and was not effective anymore. Which they were correct and the salary dump made sense at the time for the Marlins.

 

A similar move would be the Brewers putting someone like Parra in the deal if he was making somewhere around $6-10m a year. I do not believe Willis's value was any higher than a C type of a prospect definitely not worth Miller. Rabello and Badenhop are probably more along the talent that the Marlins got for Willis. So it was actually Miller, Maybin, De La Cruz, and Trahern for Cabrera.

 

I wouldn't compare this trade with a Fielder one because it is not something the Brewers would be looking to do. Teixeira is more along the lines of what the Brewers would be looking to get in return for trading Fielder. Fielder and Teixeira even out defensively and offensively. Both are great hitters but Fielder has more power while Teixeira has better defense. To me that evens it out plus I believe Fielder is a more patient hitter than Teixeira is.

 

So yes the Brewers are going to be looking at getting 2 A prospects and a couple of B and C type prospects. Bowden would be a C type prospect so your trade isn't very close to even the Cabrera trade in talent or potential talent.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Thanks for the thoughtful response...I am certainly not intending to be confrontational or disagreeable in saying Ellsbury isn't special. He's a decent player to be sure, though how good depends to a certain extent on how you read his defense. I think he's a guy who gets overrated though, because of things like his steals and the prominence with which he appeared on the major league scene. (And perhaps the letter on his cap?) Thus I think it's hard to value him properly in a deal. The relative certainty of his performance does enhance his value, and Doug Melvin in particular seems to value guys like him.

 

I could quibble with the analysis of Cabrera. For example, I'm pretty sure that Miller not being in the top 100 in 08 didn't reflect his lack of value, as he wasn't eligible for BA to list him as a prospect any longer...in the 07 list he was ranked #10, just behind Maybin at 6 (and ahead of Lincecum). And there's a nonlinear scale for prospects IMO, so the truly top-tier prospects are very valuable commodities...two recent top ten guys in one deal is pretty amazing.

 

But all that aside, and the place where I think most people could agree, I think the general lesson of deals of established stars, and thus a potential Fielder deal, is that it's very tough for the team giving up the star to get enough value in return for such a deal to make sense...even more so for a team that fancies itself a contender. (Unless you trade with a Bavasi, that is....sadly that's not currently an option.) Just adding Cs doesn't make a deal better for a team that's already got some talent on board...again that might be different for teams at different points in the cycle.