2010 Bullpen

[HiAndTight]

Villanueva does not have the stuff to be a starter, he needs to stay in the bullpen. He just cannot get through a lineup a 3rd time with his weak fastball, he relies way too much on the slider and change up which works ok for a RP but not for a starter.

I don't agree. I think if Villanueva locates he can be effective in either role.

 

There are plenty of pitchers out there with worse stuff than Villanueva who are starters. Nobody's calling him a #1, 2 or 3, but I think he could definitely be an effective backend guy.

[Ennder]

I don't agree. I think if Villanueva locates he can be effective in either role.

 

But he doesn't locate. CV as a starter is a slighty improved Suppan or a slightly weaker Dave Bush. I don't think we really need another one of those types of guys. He has really struggled late in games as well. Just look at his OPS by time through order.

 

1st) .686

2nd) .824

3rd) 1.037

 

I want no part of him going back to beign a starter, he is just way more effective as a RP.

[HiAndTight]

I don't agree. I think if Villanueva locates he can be effective in either role.

 

But he doesn't locate. CV as a starter is a slighty improved Suppan or a slightly weaker Dave Bush. I don't think we really need another one of those types of guys. He has really struggled late in games as well. Just look at his OPS by time through order.

 

1st) .686

2nd) .824

3rd) 1.037

 

I want no part of him going back to beign a starter, he is just way more effective as a RP.

 

He's also only started a hanful of games in the last two years and done so after being in the pen for long periods of times. I don't think there's any mystery that he's not likely to be effective a 3rd time through in those situations.

 

But if he doesn't locate, he's not a good reliever either. I guess I'm not sure what you're saying there. If he doesn't locate, he's not a good pitcher in any manner and we might as well just dump him.

 

I do want him to go back to being a starter. I think we pulled the plug on that too quickly when he was very good early on as a starter.

[Ennder]

You can survive as a RP without great location and with just good offspeed and a bad fastball. It is extremely hard to do that with a SP. His 'good success' early as a SP was all BABIP and LOB%, he never had good peripherals as a starter. I stand by what I said, Dave Bush is his upside as a starter and he would only be that good if he found a way to improve his control. A flyball pitcher with questionable control and only 2 decent pitches both of which are off speed is not the skillset you want for a starter. He should be used in the pen in relativey low pressure situations preferably where he would get to face 2 lefties or a tough lefty that you don't want to waste your LOOGY on since he is stronger vs LH than RH.

[thebruce44]

But if he doesn't locate, he's not a good reliever either. I guess I'm not sure what you're saying there. If he doesn't locate, he's not a good pitcher in any manner and we might as well just dump him.

Dumping him is a little harsh. He isn't very good, so thats why I think Ennder and others are saying he should be in the pen where you can pick his spots or pull him quicker if he comes in and can't locate. As Ennder alluded to, the success he had as a starter was mostly luck in my opinion but caused a lot of people to think the Brewers have misused him since he hasn't been as successful since then. Really I think he just came back down to earth with a few stretches of success again here and there.

[MJLiverock]

It essentially leaves you with a 6 man bullpen. Not going to happen in the bigs, as it is not to win games, it's to rehab or develop.

I know they will never do it in the Majors because it is to unconventional. I threw it out there mainly because it would just be a realization that Suppan isn't going to go deep in games with any consistency so why pretend? The bullpen isn't shorter if you do it, because Suppan would end up getting yanked an inning later after he gets in trouble so you still have to rely on the pen. I was trying to think of a way to keep both guys getting regular work, a set routine, and see who can be effective, maybe even a little better if they know they are only going 4 innings each. It may actually even save the pen instead of using Suppan for 4 2/3 brining stetter or someone to get one out, then bringing another guy for 6th, maybe 7th, 8th, 9th. Then having to do it all again the next day when Bush/Parra have another 5 inning start.

[thebruce44]

I don't think the reason it wont be done is because its unconventional, but just because it hurts your roster so much. You are designating someone to always come in every 5th game. When Soup can pitch deeper into games (which believe it or not does happen sometimes) would you still pull him to bring his piggyback in?

[paul253]

I think Melvin made a mistake by signing Hawkins. It's not that he isn't a good pitcher. But with how much Melvin has been talking about payroll, it seems weird he spent what, $7 million on a reliever that they really don't need. With Hoffman, Vargas, and Coffey, you've already got a solid back end of the bullpen. Stetter is your lefty. You have a long man which SHOULD be Suppan (with Narveson taking his spot in the rotation and Jones, Butler, and possibly Capuano available as backup options). Carlos Villanueva is an option. David Riske will be an option. You also have Lofgren whom I really hope they hang onto. He can be a second long man or a second lefty and after this season can move back to starting in the minors, similar to how Matt Ford was used. So that right there is already 8 arms, assuming Riske is ready to go. I just don't see the need to spend money on a multi year contract like Melvin did with Hawkins. Doesn't make sense to me.

[HiAndTight]

You can survive as a RP without great location and with just good offspeed and a bad fastball. It is extremely hard to do that with a SP. His 'good success' early as a SP was all BABIP and LOB%, he never had good peripherals as a starter. I stand by what I said, Dave Bush is his upside as a starter and he would only be that good if he found a way to improve his control. A flyball pitcher with questionable control and only 2 decent pitches both of which are off speed is not the skillset you want for a starter. He should be used in the pen in relativey low pressure situations preferably where he would get to face 2 lefties or a tough lefty that you don't want to waste your LOOGY on since he is stronger vs LH than RH.

 

And I stand by what I said that I think he could become a good starting pitcher.

 

My point is that I believe his change has the potential to be quite a bit more than a "decent" pitch, his curve can also be a tick better than average and he's got an average fastball in terms of stuff. I'm not sure what you want out of a starting pitcher, but nobody is calling him a frontline guy.

 

Moreover if all you go off of is his history, then you never give pitchers a chance to progress. This isn't a 32 year old 10 year vet, he's still a young pitcher who's bounced back and forth for the last couple years.

[HiAndTight]

Dumping him is a little harsh. He isn't very good, so thats why I think Ennder and others are saying he should be in the pen where you can pick his spots or pull him quicker if he comes in and can't locate. As Ennder alluded to, the success he had as a starter was mostly luck in my opinion but caused a lot of people to think the Brewers have misused him since he hasn't been as successful since then. Really I think he just came back down to earth with a few stretches of success again here and there.

I really don't think you can chalk it up to luck when a guy has had fairly substantial stretches in which he has been completely dominant.

 

And perhaps he actually has been used poorly? As far as not having success since then, sure he has. Last year was the first substandard year he's had in the big leagues, and even at that, he was untouchable for periods of time.

 

Anyway, I don't think he does a whole lot for you in your pen. I think he's far better served starting the season in AAA as a starting pitcher.

 

And frankly, if he was another Dave Bush, I'd happy. Dave Bush is a pretty solid pitcher, and would provide very nice depth for a low salary. I don't see that as a knock against Villy whatsoever.

[wishicouldhit]

What are the possibilities for the bullpen now that one of Suppan/Bush/Parra will be out of the rotation

 

Locks

CL Trevor Hoffman

SU LaTroy Hawkins

SU Todd Coffey

RP Mitch Stetter

RP Claudio Vargas

 

 

2 Remaining spots

RP Jeff Suppan

RP David Riske

RP Chuck Lofgren

RP Carlos Villanueva

RP Chris Narveson

 

My guess is that one spot goes to Suppan. I would prefer to keep either Naverson/ Lofgren, just depends on which one has the better spring. Send Villa to AAA, assuming he has options. But the only problem is if Riske is actually healthy

[thebruce44]

I would like to see Naverson stretched out in AAA and be the first option for the starting rotation followed by Soup and Villy who I guess will be up in the MLB pen.

[thebruce44]

I would like to see Naverson stretched out in AAA and be the first option for the starting rotation followed by Soup and Villy who I guess will be up in the MLB pen.

Oops:

 

That competition should be interesting because Parra and Narveson are out of minor-league options

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/82200177.html

[And That]

With Narveson and Parra out of options and one or two of Narveson/Suppan/Bush probably ending up in the bullpen, I'd like to see Villanueva sent to AAA and stretched out as a starter. They'll need a 8th starter at some point this season, and Villanueva wouldn't be a bad option, assuming he'd been starting all along in AAA, imo.

[Invader3K]

If they are looking at Villy possibly starting at all, I'd much rather see him "stretched out" in AAA then just thrown into the rotation at seemingly random like Macha did last season (though I don't blame him for that since he basically had no choices).

[BREWERPRIDE]

I'd also love to try to bring back Shouse on a 1 year deal. He was very good in Milwaukee, and is a free agent

No Shouse was signed to a minor league deal by the Red Sox.

 

Also, I hope Narveson makes the roster, I dont want to lose him, he showed to much promise.

[Invader3K]

I would be disappointed if Narveson doesn't make it as well.

 

Is there any chance Suppan gets cut if he looks bad in spring training, regardless of salary? I know it probably won't happen, but our options look so much better now with the Davis signing.

[wishicouldhit]

I would be disappointed if Narveson doesn't make it as well.

I wouldnt be disappointed at all even though I wouldn't mind if they kept him around, but only if he is able to build upon his success of last year and prove he can come out of the pen in spring training. I would rather put Chuck Lofgren roster if he proves to have command, which will make him a good 2nd LOOGY. Plus we should have plenty of SP's in AAA.

[Hate those Rodents]

Yeah, Narveson certainly pitched alright for us in his brief tour last year. But he had 08 and 09 to make the team and/or pitch well in AAA and never really did. He's a classic bubble guy on what is now hopefully at least an average pitching staff. I could go either way on him. Count me in as someone who'd prefer to bid sayonara to Suppan for Narveson or any other, but also as someone who would not see it as a "mistake" to cut ties after spring training.

[twobrewers]

Couldn't the Brewers just "trade" for Lofgren by sending something to Cleveland for him?

 

That way we would have 3 options on him. Correct?

[battlekow]

Jeff Sackmann looked into which AAA starters might be much better as relievers and found that while Lofgren's lefty/righty split augurs well for a LOOGY role, his shockingly bad performance with runners on base does not, though Jeff notes that the data is biased because as a starter, if there are men on base the pitcher is already doing something wrong. Former Brewer Ty Taubenheim tied for second in Jeff's overall metric.

[marty22]

I would be disappointed if Narveson doesn't make it as well.

I wouldnt be disappointed at all even though I wouldn't mind if they kept him around, but only if he is able to build upon his success of last year and prove he can come out of the pen in spring training. I would rather put Chuck Lofgren roster if he proves to have command, which will make him a good 2nd LOOGY. Plus we should have plenty of SP's in AAA.

I feel like people are overlooking Narveson. I think he's young enough to harness his talents (and his stuff reminds me of Wandy Rodriguez, who also had unimpressive milb numbers and took awhile to develop), and most projections have him as a mid 4 ERA guy next year. Certainly could be a nice fill-in/long man, I just hope they don't cut him because they're saving that spot for Suppan. I understand Suppan is still a decent depth option, but I think it's worth the gamble that Narveson > Suppan

[battlekow]

McCalvy has the latest on Riske:

One more note from #Brewers GM Melvin: Reliever David Riske (Tommy John surgery in June) "has a chance" to be ready for start of season

[wishicouldhit]

battlekow[/b]]McCalvy has the latest on Riske:

: Reliever David Riske (Tommy John surgery in June) "has a chance" to be ready for start of season

thanks battlekow, this is much needed info.

"has a chance" to start the season pretty much means he wont be ready til may or march, if even that. I liked the Riske signing a decade ago and think he could be a good contributor- especially in 5 and 6th inning. But we have too many RP for too few of spots. It will be a blessing if he doesnt start the season and maybe plugs a hole if someone goes down with an injury.