2010 Bullpen

[brewerfan82]

I really like how the bullpen is shaping up, but there doesn't seem like there will be room for some of our quality arms on the big league roster. How do you see the bullpen rounding out to start the season? Who do you consider locks?

 

Here's my guess (with CHONE projections):

 

CL Trevor Hoffman (3.45, 1.17, 39 K, 47 IP)

RP LaTroy Hawkins (3.60, 1.31, 40 K, 55 IP)

RP Todd Coffey (3.91, 1.29, 56 K, 69 IP)

RP Mitch Stetter (3.64, 1.31, 41 K, 42 IP)

RP Claudio Vargas (3.86, 1.29, 40 K, 49 IP)

RP David Riske (4.14, 1.38, 28 K, 37 IP)

RP Chuck Lofgren (no CHONE projection available)

 

I like Villanueva and Narveson, but if Riske's ready to go, I don't see Villanueva getting a spot over him with that contract. So hopefully Villy can be included in a trade for some starting pitching. I think Narveson will be sent to AAA to stay stretched out as a starter and first-called up for the rotation when needed.

 

RP Carlos Villanueva (3.86, 1.26, 68 K, 77 IP)

RP Chris Narveson (4.18, 1.30, 54 K, 56 IP)

[yoshii8]

I really like the quality and depth that Melvin has brought to our bullpen. Its going to be very interesting to see how it all works out, there are a lot of quality arms fighting for spots in Lofgren, Axford, Braddock, Narveson, Halama, Murray, Smith and Villanueva. I think that Riske will probably start out in the minors or still be rehabbing, so I would guess that Narveson and Villanueva will get the final 2 spots.

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

It looks like both Narveson and Smith are out of options so we risk losing them if they don't make the final 25. I think Riske will start in the minors as he builds back his arm after almost a year away. My locks are Hoffman, Stetter, Coffey, Hawkins, CV1 and CV2. With Narveson, Smith, Lofgren fighting out for the last spot and the rest beginning the season in AAA.

[brewtank34]

When will DM ever realize how advantageous it is to have at least 2 lefties in the BP? It just makes Macha's job all that much easier, and gives Macha and Peterson the ability to strategize the games with more ease. No offense Melvin, but...duh! That's one reason why I didn't like the Hawkins move. Yes, he'll be a nice addition, and hopefully a good set-up guy, but it takes away any financial freedom we had to go get a loogie.

 

Edit: Lofgren is a Lefty, and from the looks of his number's, possibly could be a decent lefty specialist. I'll wait and see how this one goes, but my point remains....I want at least 2 lefties in the BP.

[thumperden]

Lefties in camp being realistically looked at in Spring Training 2010 and roster designation.

 

Stetter-MLB

 

Narveson-MLB

 

Lofgren-MLB (Rule 5)

 

Halama-AAA

 

Murray-AAA

 

Braddock-AA

 

That's 6 lefties in the running up to this point that are on the radar.

 

Locks (IMO):

 

Stetter

 

Narveson starter or long relief (out of options)

 

Have a Chance:

 

Murray

 

Lofgren

 

Halama

 

Not just yet:

 

Braddock

 

I think it's very conceivable to have 2 lefties in the pen to start the season. I'm thinking Narveson probably gets the 5th spot/long reliever spot as the roster currently stands. The wild card in this scenario is Lofgren. I'm thinking that if Narveson locks up a rotation slot higher than 5th, Lofgren has a good chance if he looks like he belongs during Spring Training. I don't think Riske will be ready to start the season and may just be released with the Brewers having to eat his contract. Am I incorrect with Riske's health situation? Top of my head I think he's at best a 60 day DL candidate right out of the gate.

 

Has anyone had any injury updates lately regarding Riske?

[brewers4eric]

The average team will use about 15 different relievers over the course of a 162 game season. Injuries and ineffectiveness take their toll early on, and the roster after a couple of months won't look much like it did at the end of spring training, especially in the bullpen. Given his injury, I really doubt if we will ever see Riske pitch for the Brewers again. It will also be very difficult for a Rule 5 pick like Lofgren to make the team, especially if he has a tough time throwing strikes.

 

Hoffman, Hawkins, Coffey, and Stetter fill out the late innings pretty well. Narveson, Vargas, and Villanueva provide some decent depth and can go multiple innings. I would look for the Brewers to add another veteran swingman in the offseason, as the rotation has some major question marks behind Gallardo and Wolf. Most teams will use at least 8 starters during the season, so we need to identify some additional options.

[nate82]

Has anyone had any injury updates lately regarding Riske?

I thought there was a piece a long while back around when Hardy was traded about Riske. Can't find it now and can't recall what it said either. I believe that Riske is probably not going to be in the bullpen next year and at the earliest that you would see him would be around the All Star break I wouldn't count on Riske being available until then. Probably a little bit later after that Riske is going to have do some rehab first before he even starts in the minors. I wouldn't expect Riske to be an option until like August or September.

[yoshii8]

Adam McCalvy mentioned that David Riske is supposed to be ready for spring training.

[thebruce44]

I think Soup will start the year in the pen as the long reliever. He has the most value to this team as a less-important innings eater.

 

My locks would be Hoffman, Hawkins, Coffey, Stetter, Vargas, Soup/Narveson. Beyond that, I don't think anyone is guaranteed anything, with an eye on who has options left. As brewers4eric pointed out, the arms that don't make the cut will probably be needed at some point.

[DHonks]

I'd also love to try to bring back Shouse on a 1 year deal. He was very good in Milwaukee, and is a free agent

[MNBrew]

Minor league rehab assignments have time limits. I'd think there's a greater likelihood Riske goes back on the DL and pitches in extended spring training just to keep working his arm back toward game conditions. If he proves healthy enough, then they send him to the minors on a rehab assignment.

 

Based on how it so often works, it wouldn't be unusual for him to stink a bit in the bigs, then get put back on the DL for further recovery, conditioning, & injury rehab time before yet another minor league rehab assignment. And by then, of course, it's August and the season (& his salary have pretty much gone to waste again).

 

On a different note, Thumperden, you forgot Capuano on your list of lefties.

[thumperden]

Ah, you're right MN Brew. I'm still hoping Cappy can make it to the rotation, but it's highly unlikely that he'd be able to handle the workload after a second Tommy John surgery. I didn't think to include him on the list because in the back of my mind, he's a starter until proven otherwise. Not likely to happen though. Heck, I'd gladly accept Capuano in the rotation as a belated birthday present. Beats the heck out of my two front teeth.

 

Good catch MN Brew. I didn't think to include him, but he probably is, at best, a reliever.

 

Somebody mentioned Shouse as a possibility. Not the worst idea I've heard today. I get the feeling that LOOGY role would be the most we can hope for realistically from Cappy. If Shouse is signed, he would be about a 10 year older version of Capuano, in my opinion and would command more $.

 

I still wouldn't be disappointed to give Shouse an opportunity in the spring if affordable.

[HiAndTight]

I think Soup will start the year in the pen as the long reliever. He has the most value to this team as a less-important innings eater.

 

My locks would be Hoffman, Hawkins, Coffey, Stetter, Vargas, Soup/Narveson. Beyond that, I don't think anyone is guaranteed anything, with an eye on who has options left. As brewers4eric pointed out, the arms that don't make the cut will probably be needed at some point.

I think it's very unlikely that Jeff Suppan starts the season anywhere but in the starting rotation and I wouldn't be shocked to see him start the first series of the season.

 

I think people want him to pitch out of the pen, so they predict that he will. With his contract, and the Brewers previous reluctance to do so, I just don't see any reason they'd throw him into the pen right out of the shoot. I just don't think it's realistic in my opinion. I hope it is though.

[HiAndTight]

A couple more thoughts.

In my honest opinion, this is the most well rounded and deepest bullpen that Doug Melvin has ever assembled. A few years ago with the Mota's, Gange's, Torres and that group, they had a ton of upside, but just so much question marks and downside. Eric Gange still had really very, very good stuff, but a complete inability to locate when he had to.

In any event, I think this pen has everything you'd like with the lone exception of a hard throwing dominating closer. Of course we do still have arguably the best closer in the history of baseball who is coming off one of his better seasons.

We've got power arms galaroe with Coffey, Hawkins, Axford. We've got a couple of guys who can go multiple innings in Villanueva, Vargas, Narveson. We've got a plethora of talented lefties.


In putting together the group that breaks ST'ing however, I think really with so many pitchers really so evently matched, I'd place a premium on keeping as many good arms as possible.

If that means that you go through Spring Training and you maybe keep the 9th and 10th best guys over the 7th and 8th best guys because you can store the other two in the minor leauges, I'd actually be in favor of it. And I think that'll be a very real possability with Axford and perhaps Villanueva for example(though I'm not sure how it'd work with him starting out in the minors). I've long wanted Carlos to go back to his role as a starter as that's what I feel he's most suited to do.


Anyway;
Locks
SP'ers(since who starts has a direct impact on the BP)
Yovani/Wolf/Bush/Suppan/Parra
BP
Hoffman
Coffey
Hawkins
Stetter

Good bets
Vargas(Frankly, I don't know the details of his contract, so Bruce may be correct in putting him in as a lock based upon that)

Beyond that, I think we have just such a wide range of guys that it's very, very difficult to predict what will happen.

John Axford-
As impressive an arm as he has, he's going to have to be significantly better than others in order to start in the big leagues given our ability to store him in AAA.
Carlos Villanueva-
Not certain if he can be sent down without having to be passed through and if that's the case I don't believe he'd make it. I'd like to see him starting in AAA so that at the least he can be a swing man and the most he can be a big league starter should the need arise(I should say when). So you definitely don't risk losing Carlos, he's too good IMO.
Chris Narveson-
He was also very impressive last year and as a former top prospect, I don't believe it was a fluke. I think he's got a legit big league arm and brings a great deal of value to the org as a potential starter/lefty out of the pen.
Zach Braddock-
To me this one is rather obvious as there is simply no need to start him out in the big league pen this early. With options left and a slew of others viablre candidates it doesn't make sense.
David Riske
People forget that he was a very solid pitcher virtuatlly his entire career. I believe he will start out in extended ST'ing, and then pitch in the minors and by the time he's ready to come back, end of May/Early June IMO, he'll have been given ample time to get back into the swing of things. Could really provide a big boost for us.
Chuck Lofgren-
The one I'm most excited about. He's got big time potential, and I believe the potential to help us in the very immediate future. Of course he likely will not be one of the 7 best to break camp, so this is a case of a pitcher who is better likely having to start in AAA.

Chris Smith-
He's a guy who does have some value. I'm again, not exactly certain on his situation. If he has an option left so that he's able to be sent down without passing through waivers, however at the start of the year, teams are generally pretty set with their BP's, so I don't think that it's a very big concern. I don't think he'd get claimed.

If I had my druthers, I'd take Hoffman/Hawkins/Coffey/Stetter/Lofgren/Vargas/Narveson and start Villanueva, Axford, Braddock, Riske and the rest in the minors.

It leaves you plenty of protection when injuries come up and gives you a very formidable backend, it gives you two viable left handers, it gives you two guys in Vargas and Narveson who can go extended, and it allows you to leave Lofgren up in the BP, something I believe is a priority.

Not above winning games of course, but important all the same.

[TooLiveBrew]

Chuck Lofgren-

The one I'm most excited about. He's got big time potential, and I believe the potential to help us in the very immediate future. Of course he likely will not be one of the 7 best to break camp, so this is a case of a pitcher who is better likely having to start in AAA.

 

Lofgren has to either be on the 25-man, or returned to the Indians, since he was a Rule 5 selection.

[CheezWizHed]

Of course he likely will not be one of the 7 best to break camp, so this is a case of a pitcher who is better likely having to start in AAA.

 

Lofgren has to either be on the 25-man, or returned to the Indians, since he was a Rule 5 selection.

 

I think he meant that Lofgren will remain on the 25-man despite not being on of the 7 best.

[Tbadder]

I'll tell you who I don't want in the bullpen--Villanueva and Hawkins. Neither of these guys excites me at all. Hawkins is way too hittable for his stuff. I thought Melvin threw away money with that signing. And Villy, well, I was a big supporter, but no more. His stretches of ineffectiveness are killer. At this point I'd cut him if I couldn't get a bag of balls for him.

 

Smith, nope. I can't think of one thing that impresses me. He doesn't have any pitches, heck, I don't even see the grittiness.

 

I'd like to see Naverson as the long lefty and Vargas as the long righty. No way do I want to risk losing Naverson because he's outta options. I agree with whoever said that we should keep him stretched out in AAA, but if I was him and the Brewers put me on waivers because they hoped no one would take me? Well, I'd walk.

 

I also don't want to see Riske pitching again either. He'll just take up a spot for a more deserving and younger pitcher. It's unfortunate what happened, but it did. I'd give him his release.

 

I'm pulling for Lofgren, but he doesn't have enough control. I think the Brewer idea of making him a LOOGY is well justified and I'd rather take a chance on him. Tell, you what, take away two of his four pitches and maybe he'll blossom. Good call Dougie.

[brewers4eric]

My observation with Chris Smith is that he lives or dies with the fastball low and away. If an umpire won't give him that call and he falls behind in the count, he has to throw a fastball down the chute and it usually gets hit pretty hard. The Brewers never seemed to put Smith in a close game. There was a statistic that showed that the team only won a couple of games where he pitched and one of them was probably my favorite contest from last year, the big comeback against the Indians.

 

I'm all for a second lefty option if it is someone like Narveson that can throw multiple innings. With the current makeup of our rotation, our bullpen will be throwing 3 plus innings each game.

[thebruce44]

I think it's very unlikely that Jeff Suppan starts the season anywhere but in the starting rotation and I wouldn't be shocked to see him start the first series of the season.

 

I think people want him to pitch out of the pen, so they predict that he will. With his contract, and the Brewers previous reluctance to do so, I just don't see any reason they'd throw him into the pen right out of the shoot. I just don't think it's realistic in my opinion. I hope it is though.

I think the team has shown they will do what it takes to give them the best chance to win as opposed to sticking with the higher paid player. Remember Bill Hall?

 

If they feel Narveson will give them a better chance to win (and I think they will) then its the pen for Soup. I assume that was their plan if adding two starters anyway.

[MJLiverock]

They could always just piggy back them. Tell Supan you start, you go all out for 4 innings, Narveson you come in a be prepared to go all out for 4 innings. I know major league teams don't like to do it but if Suppan rarely goes more than 5 and change innings why pretend he may go 7 or 8. Just take him out after 4 hopefully solid rather than wait. Narveson would be on a schedule so he shouldn't have any more arm fatigue or worries about stretching out pitching multiple innings every 5th day. The rest of the bullpen, especially middle relief would get a rest day as long as Narveson doesn't need an early exit and even if they just went with Suppan the middle relievers would still have to pick up 3 innings so this may give them a rest and save them for the Bush/Parra days if they go short.

[thebruce44]

The only problem I see with piggybacking at the MLB level is that you essentially have a releaver who is only available every 5th day. If another starter struggles or gets hurt during the rest of the time through the order you are already a man down and that could really pile up on the rest of the pen.

[dadofandrew]

It essentially leaves you with a 6 man bullpen. Not going to happen in the bigs, as it is not to win games, it's to rehab or develop.

[HiAndTight]

Chuck Lofgren-

The one I'm most excited about. He's got big time potential, and I believe the potential to help us in the very immediate future. Of course he likely will not be one of the 7 best to break camp, so this is a case of a pitcher who is better likely having to start in AAA.

 

Lofgren has to either be on the 25-man, or returned to the Indians, since he was a Rule 5 selection.

Yes I realize that which was sorta my point.

 

I think the Brewers are going to try and keep Lorgren. I also do not believe that breaking camp he will be one of the 7 most effective relievers, so this is one of those few instances in which I'd be an advocate of the better pitcher starting the year in AAA and going with Lofgren.

 

Of course if he pulls an Evan Fredrickson and cannot find the zone and is all over the place and offers absolutely no hope of being an effective reliever for the Milwaukee Brewers, then you have to try and work out a trade with the Indians in order to keep him, or you have to offer him back, take back your 25K and go on your way.

 

But again, not to belabor the point, but if lets say you have Axford and he's slightly better, I'm going to go with Lofgren for the BP and hope he can develop into the arm everyone t hought he would a couple years ago.

[HiAndTight]

I'll tell you who I don't want in the bullpen--Villanueva and Hawkins. Neither of these guys excites me at all. Hawkins is way too hittable for his stuff. I thought Melvin threw away money with that signing. And Villy, well, I was a big supporter, but no more. His stretches of ineffectiveness are killer. At this point I'd cut him if I couldn't get a bag of balls for him.

 

Smith, nope. I can't think of one thing that impresses me. He doesn't have any pitches, heck, I don't even see the grittiness.

 

I'd like to see Naverson as the long lefty and Vargas as the long righty. No way do I want to risk losing Naverson because he's outta options. I agree with whoever said that we should keep him stretched out in AAA, but if I was him and the Brewers put me on waivers because they hoped no one would take me? Well, I'd walk.

 

I also don't want to see Riske pitching again either. He'll just take up a spot for a more deserving and younger pitcher. It's unfortunate what happened, but it did. I'd give him his release.

 

I'm pulling for Lofgren, but he doesn't have enough control. I think the Brewer idea of making him a LOOGY is well justified and I'd rather take a chance on him. Tell, you what, take away two of his four pitches and maybe he'll blossom. Good call Dougie.

Wow...that's an awfully negative perspective.

 

First of all, talking about Hawkins. I can understand the line of thought that we paid too much for him. I don't really agree since it's just two years, but I can see it. But he is a guy who's got a career 2.75 ERA in the NL and his career ERA as a reliever is in the mid 3's. He's also coming off a incredible stretch with the Astro's with a 2.11 ERA last year for them, and then a .38 ERA or whatever it was in a small sample at the end of '08. So I think it's pretty clear, salary aside that he's a damn good reliever for this team and he makes us better.

 

AS for Riske, if he's healthy again, I absolutely want him. At the absolute least, I want to see what he's got in Spring Training. People forget, but this is a guy who's been a stud for the better part of his career. He's struggled with injuries in Milwaukee, so I understand people having soured on him, but the bottom line is that when he's been healthy, he's been an effective reliever for pretty much his entire career. Lets not be too hasty on him.

 

Villanueva is in a put up or shut up year. He's been so incredibly dominant at times and then he can turn around and be equally substandard at times. I'd prefer to see him moved back into the starting rotation, start the year in AAA and then come up when we need a starter, or when we can fit him into the swing man spot. But I think it's a bit early to give up on him as well.

 

 

Bottom line, these three all have the potential and have shown that they can be huge contributors to a BP in their careers. Riske and Hawkins have all shown the ability to be 2.50-ish relievers for a year.

[Ennder]

Villanueva does not have the stuff to be a starter, he needs to stay in the bullpen. He just cannot get through a lineup a 3rd time with his weak fastball, he relies way too much on the slider and change up which works ok for a RP but not for a starter.