Zduriencik Is the New Beane

[BREWCREW5]

Toolivebrew- Thanks for checking out the stats on this matter.

 

To me, contract years is common sense type of thinking. Apparently not so for others.

[BREWCREW5]

Just figured I would add a quote from an article on Foxsports.com about the Vazquez to Yankees trade.

 

"Vazquez will be in the final year of his contract, pitching for one last big free-agent score."

 

That sentence pretty much sums up my type of "contract year" type of thinking.

[TooLiveBrew]

Consider yourself shot. What is his data set? Is this the study that focused on "prominent free agents"? How did he define that, exactly?

 

Well, I made that comment just assuming it'd been more well-detailed in the chapter. It wasn't. I'm not sure if there's more info to be found at Baseball Prospectus's website, but just about all that Perry noted before launching into the charts was...

 

Using WARP, we'll compare the walk years of 212 prominent free agents from 1976 to 2000 with their immediate pre- and postwalk seasons.

...

These 212 players average thirty years of age in their prewalk seasons, thirty-one in their walk seasons, and thirty-two in their postwalk seasons. Studies by Bill James and other researchers show that a player most often hits his peak between ages twenty-five and twenty-nine. That makes the walk year in this study further removed from prime territory than the prewalk year. In other words, age doesn't explain away the walk-years' performance discrepancy.

So I hope no one purchased the book in the hopes of a better explanation http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[dadofandrew]

It's simplistic to think guys somehow try harder and such before being a FA...those guys are already giving a high effort most all the time.

 

That said, being in better shape, possibly sitting down when banged up (instead of playing at 75%), and "settling" for making good contact instead of swinging for the fence when up or down 10-2 in the 8th and 9th may lead to a small increase for a few guys.

 

Needless to say, with a very good SP like Vasquez, how much better can he be? He's already a top 10-15 SP, it's not like he's not giving it his all, or that he's thrown 200 innings every year for a decade while being out of shape.

[rluzinski]

Just figured I would add a quote from an article on Foxsports.com about the Vazquez to Yankees trade.

 

"Vazquez will be in the final year of his contract, pitching for one last big free-agent score."

 

That sentence pretty much sums up my type of "contract year" type of thinking.

That settles that.

[joepepsi]

It's clear players give 100% every year, but in their walk year they give 110%.

[BREWCREW5]

That settles that.

Correct.

[TooLiveBrew]

Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs wrote a piece examining GMs around MLB: Is a GM Gap Behind the AL/NL Disparity?

 

The best: Andrew Friedman (TBA) and Theo Epstein (BOS) work in very different situations, but would be on anyone's short list for "Best GM" given the numerous ways in which their organizations excel. Billy Beane (OAK) is still one of the top GMs in the game, despite the current rebuild. It's easy to forget just how good the As were from 1999-2006 on a shoestring budget. It's only been one full season and less than two off-seasons, but Jack "Jack Z." Zduriencik (SEA) has vaulted himself into this conversation. As for a fifth member in this group… well, that's tough. I'd like to put Brian Cashman (NYY) here, given his metamorphosis the last few years from the Yankees' Tom Hagen into their Michael Corleone, but I'm trying to avoid too much controversy and people always get hung up on the budget. Mark Shapiro (CLE) would also be a good choice, but given Cleveland's recently struggles, I can understand why some would object. Josh Byrnes (ARI) would be another good candidate, but if Shapiro doesn't make it, neither should Byrnes. For #5 I'll go with Doug Melvin (MIL), who does a good job of blending traditional and contemporary methods, but any of the other guys could make it. In no particular order: Friedman, Epstein, Beane, Zduriencik, and Melvin.

[Ennder]

I think a lot of the Jack Z praise is going to calm down when the Mariners aren't a contender this year. The rotation is still a complete mess, the bullpen isn't that good. They gave up a large part of their young talent and the lineup still lacks any kind of power. He is going to look amazing compared to their old GM but that team is still heavily flawed and some of his deals haven't been that great.

[Teatoe993]

I disagree about their rotation being a complete mess. They have two Cy Young-caliber aces. The rest are #5's for now but have some decent upside. Snell is a guy who should figure it out now that he's out of Pittsburgh. He should be much more motivated to be throwing at Safeco. French is a young guy I like too. But he probably won't amount to much more than a #4 starter.

I'm not saying that the Mariners don't have flaws. But that rotation is probably the best in the AL west of the Mississippi.

[joepepsi]

Seattle's pythagorean W/L was 10 games worse than their actual W/L. That's a pretty big disparity. Usually this indicates quite a bit of luck went into those extra 10 wins. Expect regression.

[Invader3K]

They still have to be strong contenders to win their division. They don't have to be better than the Yankees and Red Sox. They have to be better than the Angels and Rangers (and the A's, but they look like non-factors right now).

[Brian the Automator]

It'll be interesting to see what the next new "moneyball" will be, if the first round was OBP and the second round was defensive metrics. I just hope it's not "playing the game the right way", because I'm pretty sure my head would explode.

 

Defensive metrics have pretty much been voodoo up to this point. Kudos to Jack Z for really being the first GM to take the plunge there.

[Ennder]

I just hope it's not "playing the game the right way", because I'm pretty sure my head would explode

 

That would just prove that Yost was ahead of his time!

[Gobias Industries]

I just hope it's not "playing the game the right way", because I'm pretty sure my head would explode

 

That would just prove that Yost was ahead of his time!

Haha. Might as well shut down the site if that's the case.

[Mass Haas]

Jack Z. audio from WSSP

[RobertR]

It'll be interesting to see what the next new "moneyball" will be, if the first round was OBP and the second round was defensive metrics. I just hope it's not "playing the game the right way", because I'm pretty sure my head would explode.

 

Defensive metrics have pretty much been voodoo up to this point. Kudos to Jack Z for really being the first GM to take the plunge there.

I think the next round is managerial tactics. Teaching them a different version of "the book". Or maybe sending them a good game simulator for their gaming system and have them play a thousand games in the offseason. Ned Yost might still have a managerial job if he had been more interested in Stratomatic than Nascar.

 

Related to that might be, how to get the most mileage out of your bullpen. There's got to be a better system than our best reliever only comes in in the ninth when we have a three run lead or less.

 

Robert

 

[danzig6767]

It'll be interesting to see what the next new "moneyball" will be, if the first round was OBP and the second round was defensive metrics. I just hope it's not "playing the game the right way", because I'm pretty sure my head would explode.

 

Defensive metrics have pretty much been voodoo up to this point. Kudos to Jack Z for really being the first GM to take the plunge there.

I think the next round is managerial tactics. Teaching them a different version of "the book". Or maybe sending them a good game simulator for their gaming system and have them play a thousand games in the offseason. Ned Yost might still have a managerial job if he had been more interested in Stratomatic than Nascar.

 

Related to that might be, how to get the most mileage out of your bullpen. There's got to be a better system than our best reliever only comes in in the ninth when we have a three run lead or less.

 

Robert

Yea i've long thought the typical closer role would vanish, but look what happened to all the stat guys who thought the same that the closer role made no sense. Yet, guys like Theo and Beane tried the closer by committee deal/less structured bullpen and after it imploded, they went right back to having and using a closer in the same fashion that all other teams do.

 

It does seem like a dumb and to rigid of a way to use your best relief pitcher, but i'm skeptical that the typical closer role will be changing drastically anytime soon.

[Invader3K]

I get those who say having defined roles in the bullpen seems silly, but it seems like it's proven time and again that pitchers need to have some sense of placement, like you pointed out. Just looking at the Brewers' own recent history goes along with that.

[TooLiveBrew]

One reason I'm skeptical that the closer role will go away is that players can make so much more money as closers. The save stat is one that imo will need to be devalued by organizations if they don't want to keep paying through the nose for 'closers'.

[logan82]

I would say that smart teams flip their closer for more players since a closer can be replaced easier than most people think. Look at our string of closers who had really good success over the last 10 years.

[Invader3K]

Right. It seems like closers tend to be good for a couple years, but then can easily become headcases or break down. Guys like Hoffman and Rivera who can be dominant closers for years and years are quite rare.

[Thurston Fluff]

I would say that smart teams flip their closer for more players since a closer can be replaced easier than most people think. Look at our string of closers who had really good success over the last 10 years.

 

True but it does hurt if you fail to get one. Look at what happened when we failed to have a good one. We had to trade to get Co-Co when Turnbow failed and had to lose our best setup man in Torres when Gagne failed.

[bball123h]

Here's a pretty good article with Tony Blengino, former Brewer staffer, now assistant to Jack Z.

 

Tony Blengino Article

[Crew2323]

That was a good article. Thanks for posting that. It's kind of neat to get into the mind of someone like that, whether you agree with his viewpoint or not. I wish I could read more articles like that more often.