Zduriencik Is the New Beane

[Mass Haas]

Jack Z. getting his props from the sabermetric crowd

[tigerbrew]

To me, Jack Z has done a better job as GM than Doug Melvin this year despite his newbie status. He has proven to be more intelligent and have a better eye for talent than DM. Jack Z also seem to be more creative and hardworking than DM. It's mainly due to Jack Z that we have our key players Prince, Braun and Yo, while DM unwisely splurged on Suppan, assembled a poor rotation resulting in a disappointing 2009 season.

 

For a modest payroll team like the Brewers, I think maybe Jack Z is the better choice for GM than Doug Melvin.

[jjfanec]

To me, Jack Z has done a better job as GM than Doug Melvin this year despite his newbie status. He has proven to be more intelligent and have a better eye for talent than DM. Jack Z also seem to be more creative and hardworking than DM. It's mainly due to Jack Z that we have our key players Prince, Braun and Yo, while DM unwisely splurged on Suppan, assembled a poor rotation resulting in a disappointing 2009 season.

 

For a modest payroll team like the Brewers, I think maybe Jack Z is the better choice for GM than Doug Melvin.

I think our board would have been livid if 3 of our top 7 prospects for a one year rental of Cliff Lee. Especially when the Mariners might are not really one pitcher away from a deep post-season run. Also I am not too sure our board would have loved giving a big contract to a speed player like Figgins who is over 30. Not a bad signing, but definitely not outside the box. If they sign Cliff Lee long-term it is a better trade but if they dont, it is like the CC trade with one more top prospect, a half year more, but Milwaukee was right in the think of the playoffs (and a Ben Sheets injury away from being very dangerous).

 

I am not saying Jack Z is doing poorly by any means. I just think the grass is always greener. I mean the reason Melvin has to go and sign guys like Wolf is because Jack only drafted one major league starting pitcher so far and I guess Parra but whether he deserves a spot remains to be seen.

[Ennder]

It's mainly due to Jack Z that we have our key players Prince, Braun and Yo, while DM unwisely splurged on Suppan, assembled a poor rotation resulting in a disappointing 2009 season.

 

He is also directly to blame for the poor state of our rotation right now due to his lack of success at drafting pitching. If I'm going to blame any single person for our current problems i put the blame squarely on Jack Z. Melvin or Attanasio is #2 depending on which one pushed for Suppan more.

[rluzinski]

Nice article but I would have liked to see a more in depth assessment of his trades so far. Just listing the 2009 WARs doesn't tell us if the trade was good long term. A very bad trade could look great using that methodology. "Length of Contract" projectied value minus salalary would have been more enlightening. I think many of those trades would still look very good. Melvin needs to trade with the Royals more. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Also, while the fact that Seattle had the worst offense in the league was mentioned, the fact they were outscored by 52 runs was not (640 RS, 692 RA). They outperformed their pythag record by 10 games! I don't think a first year GM should get much credit or blame for his team's record (real or sabr-imagined) but it should have been mentioned.

 

Is Seattle really the favorite in the AL West? The article makes that claim but offers up no good eidence to back it up. All they do is employ the very unsabre "Last year's record + offseason moves" approach.

 

Felix and Lee obviously make their top of the rotation awesome but what about 3-5? How much has the AL's worst offense last year been upgraded? Lose Branyan and gain Figgins. What else?

[JoeHova]

I don't think they're the favorite (yet), but I think they have a chance. Also, the Lee move indicates (to me, at least) that there will be more to come from Zduriencik. The Mariners still have room in their budget for another couple signings. Also, some more trades could possibly be made.

 

I agree that it seems as though the Mariners gave up some good talent to get Lee if one looks at the prospect lists. However, the guys they gave up are an AA reliever, an A ball pitcher who hasn't been getting great results, and an A ball CF who has no power. The two pitchers do have good arms and could come back to bite the Mariners but they don't seem irreplaceable. The Brewers, for example, gave up far more for 3 months of CC.

[joepepsi]

The Mariners' payroll in 2009 was $98 million, nearly $20 million more than the Brewers'. To that they have added at least another $16 million by acquiring Figgins and Lee. Their payroll in 2010 may be 50% higher than the Brewers'.

[dadofandrew]

I seem to be the only one who thinks trading 18 years of prospects for a single year of Lee will come back to haunt them...in fact, if not for the comp picks, I'd really hate it.

 

Those are 3 solid, high ceiling kids, all 21, and have performed admirably despite being young for their level.

 

I also wonder if Lee's wins will push them to 90...they have some more additions to make.

[rluzinski]

Melvin has claimed that he utilizes statistical based analysis, but I question the quality of the analysis and to what extent Melvin uses it. I don't recall the name of the stat guy Melvin uses (some fansite interviewed him a few years ago) but he's been paired with him since Melvin's time with the Rangers. Is this guy at the forfront of sabermetric research? Does he have people working under him?

 

While limited, some of statistical conclusions Melvin has made public have been out there. For instance, it was claimed that batting Kendal 9th would result in something like 20+ extra runs scored over the course of the season. I'm sorry but that is completely unbelievable based on the research I've seen. There have been a few other headscratchers as well.

 

Some of Melvin's moves have also made me question whether good statistical analysis is being used. Some of Melvins quotes during the Suppan signing made me want to gag (Innings eater, proven winner, knows how to pitch in big games, blah blah). The average baseball fan eats that kind of stuff up but come does Melvin believe that stuff? I've always been under the assumption that Mark A. forced Melvin's hand on that deal. I sure hope so.

 

In contrast, Zduriencik formed an entire Department of Statistical Research when he became GM. Many of his moves suggest he's using them.

[jjfanec]

I agree that it seems as though the Mariners gave up some good talent to get Lee if one looks at the prospect lists. However, the guys they gave up are an AA reliever, an A ball pitcher who hasn't been getting great results, and an A ball CF who has no power. The two pitchers do have good arms and could come back to bite the Mariners but they don't seem irreplaceable. The Brewers, for example, gave up far more for 3 months of CC.

Aumont might have been a reliever last year but I read where other teams thought he would be a starter again. If he ends up starting he is a very, very good prospect. Many questioned moving him to relief to begin with and I will be interested to see where he ends up. The CF with no power was good enough to play in the Futures game last year. He still posted an OPS of .916 last year with 14 triples and and OBP about 100 points higher than his average

[JonnyLungs]

Is this guy at the forfront of sabermetric research? Does he have people working under him?

If he's been working for Melvin since his Texas days, wouldn't it be impossible to be at the forefront of public sabermetric research? Wouldn't all his research be proprietary information?

[JoeHova]

I seem to be the only one who thinks trading 18 years of prospects for a single year of Lee will come back to haunt them...in fact, if not for the comp picks, I'd really hate it.

The thing about that is that there are only 25 roster spots. All 3 players have a ton of uncertainty as Aumont is the only one who has played above A+. They might not even make the majors or become guys anybody would want to keep around for 6 years. If they do make that hurdle, average and below average players have value but not so much that they can't be used to trade for a good player. The only way this comes back to haunt the M's is if one (or both) of the pitchers becomes a good starter. Even if they both become good relievers, it probably won't haunt the Mariners because relievers are pretty replaceable.

[homer]

Billy Beane wouldn't trade for Bill Hall http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[JoeHova]

Aumont might have been a reliever last year but I read where other teams thought he would be a starter again. If he ends up starting he is a very, very good prospect. Many questioned moving him to relief to begin with and I will be interested to see where he ends up. The CF with no power was good enough to play in the Futures game last year. He still posted an OPS of .916 last year with 14 triples and and OBP about 100 points higher than his average

I'm well aware that Aumont may start. The Mariners didn't start him because they think he is a major injury risk. If the Phillies want to take that chance, good for them, but as a Mariner, he's a reliever.

 

Gillies was playing in High Desert last season, the team as a whole had an .854 OPS. The Futures Game doesn't mean much. A lot of good players play in that game but so do a lot of guys who don't end up doing anything.

[rluzinski]

Is this guy at the forfront of sabermetric research? Does he have people working under him?

If he's been working for Melvin since his Texas days, wouldn't it be impossible to be at the forefront of public sabermetric research? Wouldn't all his research be proprietary information?

 

Why would you add a word ro my statement (public) but act like you are disagreeing with something I said? There is both public (largely amateur) and private (professional) research. How does the Brewer's research stack up all of it?

[Mass Haas]

Brewers' Front Office List:

Baseball Analyst/Research, Dave Lawson

 

Brew Crew Ball 2006 Interview with Dave Lawson

 

I believe this was posted elsewhere here, but those of you doubting the Cliff Lee trade from the Seattle perspective, you will likely be swayed by this note from the highly regarded Cameron / Zumstag team at USS Mariner.

[JonnyLungs]

Why would you add a word ro my statement (public) but act like you are disagreeing with something I said? There is both public (largely amateur) and private (professional) research. How does the Brewer's research stack up all of it?

Because I like to twist what people say into saying something that they're not saying.

 

In all seriousness, I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm likely misinterpreting something when you say "for(e)front of sabermetric research" as I haven't seen/heard anything that this guy has done therefore he must not be doing much. If so, mea culpa.

 

Earlier in the post you questioned the quality of the analysis when you really have no basis to question it because you haven't seen any of it or the nuts and bolts behind it. Question Melvin's use of it, no doubt. And before you bring up the whole Kendall batting ninth being worth 20 more runs thing as being proof of low quality analysis, how can you really make that judgment without seeing the analysis yourself?

 

I guess my point is that there is no way for us to really know a whole lot about the quality of analysis if we can't really be sure how much weight Doug puts in said analysis, and I'm sure you'd agree with me on that. To think that there is no disagreement in player evaluation between the powers that be would be foolish. I won't sit here and judge the inner workings of the Brewers' front office when I have no idea what is going on in there. But what we can judge is the eventual decisions they make collectively. I just have a problem evaluating the process of a decision when the only real information we have are the soundbytes that are given to the media which likely barely scratch the surface of what is all involved.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I'm a huge Jack Z fan, but having more dough to spend than Beane or Doug M helps. Not to mention having Kenji Johjima walk away from a huge contract gave them some surprise flexibility. That would be like Suppan deciding to retire before last season.

[JoeHova]

The Mariners' payroll in 2009 was $98 million, nearly $20 million more than the Brewers'. To that they have added at least another $16 million by acquiring Figgins and Lee. Their payroll in 2010 may be 50% higher than the Brewers'.

They shed a lot of salary too. They lost Washburn, Beltre, Batista, Johjima. Just those 4 guys accounted for over $40 million dollars last season. Jeez, Bavasi was terrible. They're also stuck with Carlos Silva, who is even more awful than Suppan and is under contract for 2 (or 3, depending on how his option works) more years. (In his 2 years in Seattle so far, Silva is 5-18 with a 6.81 ERA. Disastrous.)

[Robideaux]

I seem to be the only one who thinks trading 18 years of prospects for a single year of Lee will come back to haunt them...in fact, if not for the comp picks, I'd really hate it.

 

Those are 3 solid, high ceiling kids, all 21, and have performed admirably despite being young for their level.

When the comp picks are taken in to consideration (and you know as well as anyone that they were a big part of the calculus) isn't it more fair to say trading 6 years of a prospect for a single year of Lee? Doesn't that seem like a good gamble for a team that could make a postseason run this season?

 

None of the three prospects are can't-miss at this point. Certainly, you would rather have guys who have at least shown something in A-ball as opposed to the uncertainty of the two comp picks, who, in theory, could be total busts, but I think a reasonable case could be made that the comp picks will largely offset the value of the three prospects traded for Lee, especially if the rumors of Aumont's chronic hip condition have any basis in reality.

[tyguy20204]

I believe this was posted elsewhere here, but those of you doubting the Cliff Lee trade from the Seattle perspective, you will likely be swayed by this note from the highly regarded Cameron / Zumstag team at USS Mariner.

I don't thing it's as cut and dry as this. To say that "Prospect X can be presently quantified as $5 million" because that's what Victor Wang's analysis of the BA Top 100 lists tells us - that's not what I would consider a convincing analysis. Wang's research is interesting, no doubt, and it can be predictive, to an extent. But the Phillies have a great scouting department, and I don't think that this fact should be underestimated.

 

Not to mention that I would argue that using the BA Top 100 list or the Sickels list as a base for your methodology...might not be the best way to do things.

[sgtcluels]

I really think Mark made a poor decision on letting Jack Z walk and extending Doug. Jack has an awesome situation though, money, low expectations, and the ability to run a team like he wants too. I've always loved Jack, so i'm latching my AL team to him. Go Seattle!

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I really think Mark made a poor decision on letting Jack Z walk and extending Doug. Jack has an awesome situation though, money, low expectations, and the ability to run a team like he wants too. I've always loved Jack, so i'm latching my AL team to him. Go Seattle!

 

I think Mark made a great decision by letting him walk and promoting Bruce Seid. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Arnett and Heckathorn will out perform Rogers and Jeffress. Time will tell, though.

[Invader3K]

I would think most baseball people would rather be the GM of the Mariners than the Brewers anyway. More money, more star power, etc.

[Ennder]

I would think most baseball people would rather be the GM of the Mariners than the Brewers anyway. More money, more star power, etc.

Not to mention they don't lose pitchers to injuries while they pretend to be hitters. That alone would drive me to work in the AL.