"Don't Expect Another Big Signing"

[The Truth]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/79263882.html

 

I sure hope we trade for a starting pitcher, because I think we really do need 2 new starters. Wolf is one, but a starting staff of Gallardo,Wolf, Parra, Bush and either Suppan/Mulder/Narveson doesn't exactly look like a potential division winner to me... Parra and Bush are huge question marks (potentially very good but who knows?). Suppan doesn't look like a legit starter anymore. Mulder is an even bigger question mark. I like Narveson's potential but I don't think we can count on him to be a great starter yet...

[JoeHova]

I like the "another" in there. It's like if I gave a kid half a box of Cheerios and then said, "don't expect another Christmas present".

[JohnBriggs12]

I really hope we trade for a starting pitcher

 

Well since they have no money to replace Hart if he were dealt for a starter, and Gamel's value apparently isn't where they thought it would be or will be, it's not looking like any trade is imminent either.

 

I just can't fathom the reasoning behind the Hawkins signing myself. Bullpen arms are available all over the place and that wasn't anywhere near as pressing a need. It's looking like that's the one that's preventing them from adding a starter.

[brewmann04]

I tend to agree another Starter is needed and who know we have close to 2 months before spring Training so maybe Doug will find someone else to add besides Mulder and Wolf.

[smbrewersfan15]

I really hope this is just Melvin-speak. Where he says 'we are good with what we got' just so he doesn't seem to be dealing from a perceived position of weakness. I fully expect one more starter to be added at some point besides Mark Mulder.

[rluzinski]

I'm not a big fan of the Hawkins signing but he probably cost $3 mil over the alternatives. I can't see Melvin having almost any money left to spend ($1-$2 MIL?). Another good starter was never in the cards.

[brewmann04]

I can't see them competing without adding another starter and wonder how the people in Milwaukee will take this message.

I usually by bewtween 100 -200 dollars worth of Merchandise before the season but think i going to wait till see what happens from now to feb,

[yoshii8]

I expect Melvin to acquire the 2nd starter through a trade. Fox mentioned that the Brewers are talking to the Mariners about Brandon Morrow, it is being discussed in the transaction rumor thread.

 

If he's not able to make a trade, I expect him to bring in a bargain veteran right before spring training. There will probably be a few of those guys still out there.

[Invader3K]

I think Wolf will be a huge upgrade over Looper. But I am starting to question the wisdom of signing Hawkins if it is hamstringing the team that much financially.

 

I do think Melvin will still end up making some kind of trade before the season. I would think he wants to have an option other than Suppan for the fifth starter. They will probably sign Mulder, but that really shouldn't "count" because he probably won't be available on Opening Day.

[strawbossisevil]

The fact that he was in on Correia suggests that we have a few million yet to make a move, it just isn't going to be a FA signing anywhere near the cost of Wolf. I don't think this is anything we didn't know before.

[bcf5575]

so the big changes to the rotation are signing a a free agent to replace the starter that won the most games on the team last year? I realize that Looper had his shortcomings, but he kept the crew in enough games to win 14 starts. thats more than what many of the others could do. Count me as very disapointed if this is the end of the moves...

[strawbossisevil]

We already know that it is not likely to be end of the moves. The Brewers are the favorites to sign Mulder, and they are searching the trade market (see Correia, Morrow) for another young starter.

 

I would be surprised if another move isn't made. The point the Journal Sentinal writer is making is that they will not be adding any expensive FA options at this point, not that they won't be making other moves.

[sgtcluels]

Mulder is a giant question mark. Last reports had it that he can't reproduce a consistent arm slot. So I think it's wise to not count on Mulder at all, maybe he'll figure it out in the next 60 days, but who knows. With the Vargas contract not announced, we are going to be pushing $85M+ at least, I'd almost expect a trade (Hart for example) just to relieve some salary pressures.

[brewerfan82]

so the big changes to the rotation are signing a a free agent to replace the starter that won the most games on the team last year? I realize that Looper had his shortcomings, but he kept the crew in enough games to win 14 starts. thats more than what many of the others could do. Count me as very disapointed if this is the end of the moves...

So by this logic, was Suppan REALLY good at keeping us in games?

 

Games allowing less than or equal to...

0 ER: Suppan - 13.3% / Looper - 5.8%

1 ER: Suppan - 30.0% / Looper - 20.6%

2 ER: Suppan - 43.3% / Looper - 35.3%

3 ER: Suppan - 60.0% / Looper - 52.9%

4 ER: Suppan - 73.3% / Looper - 67.6%

 

Looper was even worse than Suppan at keeping the Crew in games, he just got bailed out by the offense a lot last year.

 

By comparison, here are the same rates for Gallardo...

0 ER: 20.0%

1 ER: 33.3%

2 ER: 56.7%

3 ER: 80.0%

4 ER: 83.3%

 

No one should be upset about us replacing Looper. Now let's hope we can somehow delegate Suppan to the bullpen...

[thebruce44]

Agreed, Looper was probably the worst starter in the majors last season.

 

I am most worried about injuries, as it looks like we are still thin in depth. Hopefully some of the young guys will be able to step it up from the minors in the second half if a few spot starts are needed.

[The Truth]

so the big changes to the rotation are signing a a free agent to replace the starter that won the most games on the team last year? I realize that Looper had his shortcomings, but he kept the crew in enough games to win 14 starts. thats more than what many of the others could do. Count me as very disapointed if this is the end of the moves...

Win-Loss record is not a reliable stat in any sense of the imagination.

 

I suppose its true we will see a small trade happen, and maybe in this economy some free agents will be bargains in January/February. I agree with others who question the Hawkins signing if that prevents us from spending $$$ on starting pitching.

 

Relying on Manny Parra to turn his career around, and relying on Dave Bush to overcome injuries (though Bush has had amazing years statistically every other season, so he's due next year!) is playing alot of "what if" with the Brewers small window left of the "Prince Fielder era" already. If Bush and Parra are the #4 and #5 pitchers that would look alot better than them slotted in the 3 and 4 spots.

 

When compared to legit World Series contending pitching staffs, Gallardo and Wolf are really #2 and #3 guys anyways. Unless Gallardo really steps up his game to be the true Cy Young contender many of us think he could be, he's really a good solid #2 pitcher. And I don't see any way to think of Randy Wolf as more than a #3 pitcher on most of the best pitching staffs in MLB

[thebruce44]

I think Yo has the potential to be a #1 very soon, but it would be asking a lot of him to anchor a staff that would make a deep run in the playoffs. I just don't know that he could throw the necessary innings at this point. Hopefully he can get his walks back down and pitch more efficiently (hopefully the whole staff can do that) throughout the season so that he is in inning 7 or 8 when he hits the 100 pitch mark. Anyway, getting a bit off topic, but the whole innings thing and depth is the biggest concern for me at this point about this staff. If they stay healthy and efficient (way to big of an if) they could have some success.

[logan82]

Parra did pitch 166 innings with a 4.39 ERA in 2008. Just saying, he isn't as bad as he is often made out to be. One bad year and suddenly there is no confidence in him to be anything other than a 5th starter seems pretty silly to me. Yeah he hit a wall at the end of 2008 and pitched poorly. Not a surprise given his inning increase for the year.

[Ennder]

Parra also had an xFIP of 4.64 last year. There is a reason the projection systems are still pretty positive on him. He obviously needs to walk fewer guys to ever find real success, dunno if he can do that.

[The Truth]

Parra did pitch 166 innings with a 4.39 ERA in 2008. Just saying, he isn't as bad as he is often made out to be. One bad year and suddenly there is no confidence in him to be anything other than a 5th starter seems pretty silly to me. Yeah he hit a wall at the end of 2008 and pitched poorly. Not a surprise given his inning increase for the year.

Yes, but even in '08 Parra had a WHIP of 1.542. The guy has a career WHIP of 1.652 (!). That is relatively brutal. His SO/9 rate and just a look at his stuff tells us he has the potential to put it together, but wow Manny Parra looks a lot closer to a career AAAA pitcher right now than a legit starter

[thebruce44]

I am really excited to see what Peterson does with him. I don't want to speculate on the results just yet, but the talent is there with Parra. He just needs someone to help him put it all togeather at this point.

[nate82]

There should be a lot of pitchers that are on the market that haven't even had any buzz about them. Duscherer and Meyers come to mind as having very little interest from other teams right now. Both of those guys could be had for a one year contract. I either expect a trade or Duscherer, Meyers, or another veteran pitcher to be signed sometime after the holidays.

[rluzinski]

What does it even mean to be a "legit world series team"ace? Like one of the top 3 starting pitchers in the NL? According to CHONE, Yo projects to be the 6th best ace in the NL. If that's not good enough to be considered a true ace than I think the label is basically meaningless.

 

I guess the Giants are the only team that have a true ace... looking forward to seeing them in the World Series next year. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Funketown]

Quite honestly, I don't think the Brewers should go out and make another "big deal", simply because I just don't see that many players on the free agent market that are worth a big contract from the Brewers. Looking at starting pitchers, this weak market is already somewhat depleted. You've got Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Joel Piniero, and Jarrod Washburn that could possibly get "big deals", depending, obviously, on what Melvin considers a "big deal". Jon Garland is Jon Garland, Piniero is looking for major money, and we've all been over Washburn and Davis before.

 

At this point, I think it makes the most sense to look at where things are, and take a couple flyers on some high-risk guys. Offer a few incentive laden deals to guys like Chien-Ming Wang, Bedard, Duchsherer, Smoltz, and Pedro, and just see what happens. If the price isn't right, just let it be. A rotation of Gallardo, Wolf, Parra, Bush, Suppan probably projects to be just slightly below average, and I just don't think it would be a very efficient use of Melvin's resources to give a below average pitcher a deal if the money isn't there.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think it's safe to say there will be a major trade for another front line starter before the offseason is over. Whether it's for Morrow, Vazquez, or whoever is TBD, but I'd bet the farm on it. The offseason is far from over and thank goodness Melvin is done in the over priced FA market.