2010 Pitching Projections

[rluzinski]

How accurate in general are these sites like CHONE anyways in predicting team wins? Enough to even bother caring what they predict?

 

If we flip a coin 162 times, will get vastly different results from trial to trial. That doesn't mean it's not useful to know that we should expect 81 heads. To be clear, there's a whole layer of uncertainty involved with projections that don't exist with flipping a coin, though. It's an educated guess but Melvin needs to use educated guesses to make decisions.

 

As for IP projections, I agree with kromnoj. We know a lot more than the projections systems do.

[HiAndTight]

I know Bill James is usually very optimistic for hitters, but this looks like extreme optimism for pitchers as well, which doesn't seem to make sense. I'd say this is pretty much the absolute best we could hope for and I'd be shocked if Bush, Parra, and Suppan put up those ERAs. A 4.22 ERA, by the way, would have been 7th in the NL in '09.

 

The thing is, I wouldn't be shocked in the least bit of all three or any of the three significantly out-performed those numbers.

 

Manny Parra coming into last year was a guy many of us thought could be a viable #2 if not this year, down the road. Now after an awful 2009 season I think people are a little bit too down on Manny. I think he's the type of kid that if he has a good ST'ing and a good start to the season, you could see just breaking out and putting up a fantastic season.

 

Dave Bush is one of those guys who's likely never going to be as good as his peripherals, but still has the potential to easy surpass the 4.29 ERA projected for him. AT some point in his career he's going to put together a good season, start to finish and finish with an ERA in the 3.00's.

 

And while Jeff Suppan has been a major disappointment and is an atrocious contract, the fact remains he's still not quite as bad IMO as some make him out to be on here. I put no value into his ability to eat innings or his leadership ability. That said, I think the simple fact that some would be so surprised to see him put up a 5.09 ERA is evidence that he's a little bit underrated on here.

 

 

 

In the end, I could see a lot of different scenarios with those three pitchers. I think Manny Parra will meet or beat those projections, Bush and Suppan I don't know about. Bush I would guess ~4.50-ish, and Suppan I think will be right around that 5.00 range.

 

 

And honestly, with our bullpen who I believe will be one of the top 2-3 in the NL, it all comes down to Wolf and Gallardo. Wolf I expect a 4.10-ish ERA from and Yo I think is ready to establish himself as a Cy Young contender and will be under 3.00.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think people are a little bit too down on Manny. I think he's the type of kid that if he has a good ST'ing and a good start to the season, you could see just breaking out and putting up a fantastic season.

 

And it's not like he didn't show signs of that potential at times last season, either. With Manny, imo it's going to always come down to whether or not he nibbles. I don't know if it's a confidence issue, where he doesn't yet trust his stuff against big-league hitters, or if it's a case where he's just trying to pitch like a HoFer & paint the corners like Greg Maddux. Either way, I think he needs a strong voice from his pitching coach reminding him that there's a reason he's been able to dominate hitters at every level, and that he needs to trust his stuff.

[Tbadder]

I don't know How Suppan is going to be over 5.00. I'd expect something around that 4.75. It's a contract year my friends and somebody's got to give him 20 mil over three years next winter--don't they?