2010 Pitching Projections

[filthyfrog]

I know there are many savvy minds here who can do a more comprehensive effort than this, but I thought I'd throw together a quick and dirty comparison of our starting rotation as currently configured for 2010 against the abomination that was 2009's rotation.

 

Here are Bill James's projections followed by the 2009 totals. I used Bill James because it's easily available on Fangraphs.

 

SP	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	ER
Wolf	12	10	3.87	34	200	191	24	67	159	86
Gallardo	12	8	3.53	31	186	157	17	84	205	73
Parra	7	9	4.59	28	147	158	13	67	130	75
Bush	6	6	4.29	20	107	112	16	27	74	51
Suppan	7	10	5.09	28	152	175	20	54	81	86
2010*	44	43	4.22	141	792	933	90	299	389	371
2009	55	59	5.37	162	891	999	145	381	658	532

Obviously, the 2010 projections are missing 21 starts, which would presumably be picked up by replacement starters and would probably make the numbers less appealing. And I'm assuming the incumbents will retain their spots in the rotation, although that's far from a safe assumption.

 

I know Bill James is usually very optimistic for hitters, but this looks like extreme optimism for pitchers as well, which doesn't seem to make sense. I'd say this is pretty much the absolute best we could hope for and I'd be shocked if Bush, Parra, and Suppan put up those ERAs. A 4.22 ERA, by the way, would have been 7th in the NL in '09.

 

Another oddity is the 107 projected IP for Bush. Other than last year, he's been extremely durable, so I'm not sure where that's coming from.

 

What do you think? Are these projections reasonable? If so, has Melvin done enough to improve the rotation? Do other projection systems differ dramatically from Bill James? Discuss...

[dadofandrew]

That's a 15 win improvement, so it's probably very optimistic. However, this is what Doug is hoping for.

[Invader3K]

It would be so nice if we somehow replace Suppan with a guy who can put up an ERA under 5.00. I think that ERA projection for Suppan might be too optimistic.

[logan82]

I think all those projections are at least a little optimistic other than Parra. I would have put all of them at least 0.25 higher except maybe Parra. Yeah the 107 innings for Bush also seems really low.

[BrewCrewForever]

They are optimistic numbers, but if true or close to true would be pretty good. I would be happy with them.

[Ennder]

I'd take the under on Suppan most likely. The over on Wolf. Bush and Parra are too much of a wild card. I mean Bush can easily put up an ERA under 4.29 but he has shown he can easily put up a 5 too.

 

Chone projections can be found here... http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/MIL2010p.htm

 

Wolf - 164 IP of 4.17 ERA

Gallardo - 145 IP of 3.60 ERA

Parra - 159 IP of 4.75 ERA

Bush - 161 IP of 4.64 ERA

Suppan - 170 IP of 5.24 ERA

 

Little bit more pessimistic obviously. I'd guess that comes out to like a 4.55 or so when you average it out, but I didn't do the math.

[dadofandrew]

Suppan had a 4.75 ERA with a couple starts left, so he could have easily finished there. Many guys would have just shut down, like Bush did.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think all those projections are at least a little optimistic other than Parra. I would have put all of them at least 0.25 higher except maybe Parra. Yeah the 107 innings for Bush also seems really low.

James's projections are notoriously the most optimistic of the main systems. I know he has his own thread in the Transactions Forum, but one reason I like the idea of trading for SD's Kevin Correia is that you'd drop a 5-ish ERA in Soup to add a guy that projects quite similarly to Dave Bush.

[Ennder]

I don't think it is realistic to expect Suppan to be the odd man out. If we were to trade for Correia I think it means Parra starts in AAA personally.

[rluzinski]

I think James' projections are crazy. CHONE looks much more reasonable:

 

Wolf - 164 IP of 4.17 ERA

Gallardo - 145 IP of 3.60 ERA

Parra - 159 IP of 4.75 ERA

Bush - 161 IP of 4.64 ERA

Suppan - 170 IP of 5.24 ERA

#6 starter - 165 IP of 5.5 ERA

 

Average: 4.65 ERA

 

Much better than last year but still well below average:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/127/league/nl

 

Replace the #6 starter with someone like Davis (4.6ish ERA) and you still only get a 4.5 ERA out of the starters. A couple of these guys are going to have to surprise to make the Brewers legitimate playoff contenders.

[TooLiveBrew]

I know what you mean, but it wouldn't 'surprise' me personally to see Parra significantly out-perform his '10 projections. I think he's very capable of turning in 180-ish IP of 4.00-ish ERA.

[MJLiverock]

Why would Gallardo be projected at only 145 innings in those CHONE numbers? Seems that if one is going to adjust Bush upward to account for injury last year why adjust Gallardo down when he is another year removed from injury and another year older on adding to his workload buildup.

[dadofandrew]

Even Chone shows 72 runs saved, which is 7 wins, which is 87 wins. Improved pitching makes this team a contender.

[Scooter1027]

Clearly, Parra is the big wildcard here. I feel pretty comfortable with those CHONE projections (moreso than James' anyway), but Parra's projection is a huge crapshoot. He has the stuff and upside to be a nice #3 behind Yo/Wolf, or he could end up in AAA again. As a rookie, he tossed 166 IP with a 4.39 ERA (3.85 xFIP). Terrific rookie season. Then in year 2 every single peripheral regresses. I mean, who is he? I think his success (or lack thereof) will play a crucial part in our season. Personally, I'd take those rookie year numbers again.

[rluzinski]

Even Chone shows 72 runs saved, which is 7 wins, which is 87 wins. Improved pitching makes this team a contender.

 

Ceteris Paribus? When proper team projections start rolling out, I think we are going to see them predicting closer to 83 wins for the Brewers. The offense has been downgraded and we can't presume continued good fortune in the pythag. record area. The Brewers need some combination of Hart, Gamel/McGehee, Parra and Suppan to beat their projections. Perhaps a darkhorse starting pitcher to be found.

[danzig6767]

How accurate in general are these sites like CHONE anyways in predicting team wins? Enough to even bother caring what they predict?

[Ennder]

They aren't bad at it. Baseball like everything else is extremely high variance though. You never know when a pitcher is going to go all Ryan Dempster on you or a hitter pulls a Mark Reynolds. The 'career year' effect.

[JET15]

Suppan had a 4.75 ERA with a couple starts left, so he could have easily finished there. Many guys would have just shut down, like Bush did.

Bush took a hard shot off of his pitching elbow and he tried to work through it. I say give the guy some slack on that alone. Seeing that video just makes me wince

[Patrick425]

I was doing some quick numbers on Suppan the other day. I don't know what I did with the paper I was scribbling on, but if you take away his worst 5 starts (ERA wise) his ERA for the year drops to something like 3.80. If you take away his 3 worst starts it drops to 4.6ish. Now, I know you could do this with a lot of pitchers but I still thought the 3.80 number was a pretty dramatic change. What I did notice is that his whip remians very similar no matter how many starts you take away. I think his whip went to 1.59 when you removed his 5 worst starts.

 

He also had an ERA of about 3.75 in his starts from April 19 to July 17. (98 total innings)

 

If you take away his one worse start of the year (July 27), his ERA drops to 4.89.

 

Not trying to make any excuses for the guy, just throwing the numbers out there. What's odd about his game log last year is the distribution of the 5 worst starts that I used. It was his first 2 starts, his last two starts (not including the last game where he pitched 2 innings), and one start in July.

[dadofandrew]

Suppan also struggled before he was DL'd. He did not have his best year, but was far from bad for much of the year.

[Invader3K]

I think he was probably pitching hurt for at least a couple games, so that probably had an effect, too.

[BrewCrewForever]

Even Chone shows 72 runs saved, which is 7 wins, which is 87 wins. Improved pitching makes this team a contender.

In our division, if you are around 87 wins you are contending in September. That would be nice.

[Ennder]

Zavarce tweets that the Rays, Cubs, Brewers, Giants, Pirates, Tigers, Mariners, and A's are on hand to watch Escobar throw.

 

 

That would make the rotation look a whole lot better if he is healthy at all.

[Raw Biz]

Escobar probably wouldn't start. He wants to pitch in relief to limit the innings and stress on his arm since the injury.

[kramnoj]

Why would Gallardo be projected at only 145 innings in those CHONE numbers?

 

I think the people who run projections would like to run them without IP if they wouldn't get ripped to shreds for doing so. It would be far too difficult for the people who do these to build a system that knows every pitchers injury history and include that in their projections.

 

So the projection sees Gallardo with 110 IP in the majors in 2007 and 24 IP in 2008 and spits out a number that isn't realistic. I would imagine it would also know the IP in the minor leagues.

 

Then again, there is I think some evidence that injury prone players exist, and while we shouldn't assume that Gallardo is injury prone, how does one build a system to judge that?