Rangers sign Harden

[PeaveyFury]

The NL average starting pitcher ERA last year was 4.32. It wouldn't be a bad rotation (worlds better than last year's) but still below average.

 

Below average compared to all starters, but how would it compare to other starting rotations? I'd be fairly surprised if a majority of teams actually had a sub 4.6 ERA from their rotations. But certainly possible, I guess.

[logan82]

Below average compared to all starters, but how would it compare to other starting rotations? I'd be fairly surprised if a majority of teams actually had a sub 4.6 ERA from their rotations. But certainly possible, I guess.

 

4.6 would be about 18th in MLB and about 12th in the NL. Better, not good.

[PeaveyFury]

Thanks logan and Russ, exactly what I was looking for. I guess the Brewers should have some additional certainty in the next week or two, as that 6th replacement level starter might actually be Bush or Suppan depending both on who gets signed and whether Bush gets tendered or not.

[JJHardy7]

But when you sign a guy to a long term deal, that's exactly what you have to do.

 

Why is a 3 year deal a long-term deal? Is it because of his age?

[JohnBriggs12]

Why is every other team getting an economic downturn discount but the Brewers? Harden has as much value as Wolf does in significantly less innings. They are roughly worth the same this year. WAR measures against a scrub (5.25 ERA) pitcher, so innings eater don't have some hidden value.

 

And even with a Doug Davis, the starting rotation is below average.

They got a one year discount and some cash compared to the market 3 years ago. Cubs signed Ted Lilly who's extremely similar to Wolf but wasn't coming off nearly as good a year in 06 for $40mil/4 years. They also got a Class A FA in Wolf without giving up a draft pick too, which pumped up his asking price some.

[RockCoCougars]

Both Harden and Wolf have only exceeded 125 innings three times in the past six seasons. Harden is younger, throws harder, has a better track record, and would have came much cheaper. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

[zzzmanwitz]

Everyone seems to not consider the fact that Harden may have not wanted to play for Milwaukee. That is a pretty big factor to weigh in.

[RobertR]

The way I look at it, the Brewers really need to come up with 300 to 400 IP for their rotation. And I think coming up with the guy that there's some reasonable expectation of putting up 200 IP as the #1 option and bargain shopping for the extra 100+ IP makes more sense than a Harden + Looper/Garland/etc. alternative. Probably cheaper too since 200 IP is never cheap to find, while you can bargain shop for 130 IP type of guys. The less chance of the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th options having to start the better in this organization.

 

Robert

[RockCoCougars]

I'd be willing to bet that Wolf doesn't pitch 200 IP this season. Last year, he led the league in starts and barely got there.

[Ennder]

Both Harden and Wolf have only exceeded 125 innings three times in the past six seasons. Harden is younger, throws harder, has a better track record, and would have came much cheaper. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Harden has exceeded 150 innings 0 times in the past 5 years. Wolf has exceeded 190 innings the past 2 seasons. Wolf was arguably better than Harden last year as well. Harden isn't much cheaper either, if he stays healthy he costs more than Wolf. He is only cheaper if he gets hurt and misses a lot of time.

[kramnoj]

Harden is younger, throws harder, has a better track record, and would have came much cheaper.

 

Wolf was a better pitcher last year, and had significantly more IP. It's also not clear how much cheaper Harden would be. We don't know what the buyout is if Harden isn't renewed. If Harden doesn't pitch well this year, he may come relatively close to what Wolf will make this year. If Harden pitches well and is renewed, he makes more than Wolf next year.

 

The third year for Wolf is of course what may be a deal killer.

[RobertR]

Both Harden and Wolf have only exceeded 125 innings three times in the past six seasons. Harden is younger, throws harder, has a better track record, and would have came much cheaper. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

 

I really think ignoring expectations of IP is doing a disservice. And 125 IP is a pretty arbitrary number. Why not 150 IP? Or 180 IP which is probably a full season?

 

Harden seems to have a cap on him of no more than 150 IP in a season. He's exceeded that once in his 7 year career. Wolf, otoh, has exceeded Harden's IP high of 189.2, 5 times in his career and 2 times in the last 2 seasons.

 

I agree, if I only had one, or five, innings to pitch, I'd rather take my chances with Harden. OTOH, if I have 200+ IP to pitch, I think there's plenty of evidence that Wolf > Harden + replacement. Especially since I'm not convinced that the Brewers will get replacement level out of their AAA reserves. Wolf was more valuable than Harden in 2007 and 2009.

 

I also think that this is a little about strategy. It's been clear that the Brewers have been willing to buy at the deadline if they're in contention. So, they're playing it safe, perhaps targeting that impact arm for a short series later rather than sooner.

 

Robert

[homer]

Harden is a special talent? I agree he still Ks a ton of guys but talent is only special when it's on display - not on the shelf. I would have liked to have signed Harden to a one year deal too but to say his deal is "better" than Wolf's is a huge stretch.

[RobertR]

I'd be willing to bet that Wolf doesn't pitch 200 IP this season. Last year, he led the league in starts and barely got there.

Sure, I'd say 200 IP is under 50%. Probably no more than 30%. And I'd put Harden's chances of 200 IP at less than 1%. OTOH, I'd put Harden getting over 150 IP under 50% and Wolf's chances well over 50%. Which fits with the projected IP.

 

There are no certainties, but there's at least a significant chance that Wolf will be very good and durable in 2010. Heck, he'll be worth it if he's at least average and durable.

 

I firmly believe Harden is truly valuable only if you can live with the fact that he's going to miss significant time. Basically the 5th starter that becomes more valuable in the post-season. Wolf's basically an unspectacular #2 to #4. To me, the Brewers need more of that group than of Harden's. Although, I kind of think this is all moot unless Parra steps up and Bush is at least average-ish.

 

Robert

[brewcrew7]

What is with the love for Rich Harden?

I'm fond of the career 3.39 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Spectacular pitcher.

 

The difference between a special player (Harden) at a team-friendly contract (1 year, $7.5 per) and a pedestrian player (Wolf) at 3 years, $9 per is such a monumental difference. It's like the deals happened in two totally different environments, yet they happened on the same day. I can't fathom it.

Paying a premium for 200 innings of merely average/good pitching instead of much, much less money for 140 innings of very good pitching makes no sense to me. We'd be far better off right now if we had Harden at 2 years, $14 million than we are with Wolf at 3 years, $30 million. It's heartbreaking.

 

 

 

If your idea of a special pitcher is Harden you need to watch some more baseball. A guy who can only go 5 innings is not special. He does walk and strike out alot of guys and can be special at times. But with our budget we cannot committ 7.5 to a guy we will only have in the rotation for 75% of the year and that might be a high estimate. And I think everyone got tired of our poor starting pitching killing the bullpen last year. We do not need a 5 inning pitcher that is for sure.

[RockCoCougars]

We do not need a 5 inning pitcher that is for sure.

Agreed. But as I said in an earlier post, Wolf averaged barely 6 innings per start last year.

[valpocrewsader]

If your idea of a special pitcher is Harden you need to watch some more baseball.

The wife will not be happy about this.

[rluzinski]

Why is a 3 year deal a long-term deal? Is it because of his age?

 

It's long compared to 1 year. That's all I meant.

 

OTOH, if I have 200+ IP to pitch, I think there's plenty of evidence that Wolf > Harden + replacement. Especially since I'm not convinced that the Brewers will get replacement level out of their AAA reserves.

 

First, I find it hard to believe that the Brewers can't find a couple of 5.5 ERA pitchers to fill in if needed. The definition of replacement level suggests it's an almost certainty. Off the top of my head, Villy, Soup and vargas fit the bill. Probably one or two guys in AAA as well.

 

Second, if we are only concerned with 2010, I agree that a reasonable projection can make Wolf > Harden + 5.5 ERA pitcher. Wolf at 4.2 ERA and 175 IP vs. Harden at 3.95 and 120 IP, for instance. But as I said earlier, if you also factor in their salaries, they would be even value for 2010. After after you consider Wolf's 2011 and 2012 part of the contract, it makes harden's contract look quite attractive to some.

 

To address another person's comment, no, there is no guarantee Harden was interested in the Brewers at $7.5 mil. Same could be true of Penny. Even if the going rate had been $8.5 mil, I think I still would have preferred it over Wolf's deal. If most teams end up paying Wolf's rate to buy FA pitchers this off season, as big of an offense. If most end up paying the Penny/Harden rate, I will be disappointed.

[RobertR]

Why is a 3 year deal a long-term deal? Is it because of his age?

 

It's long compared to 1 year. That's all I meant.

 

OTOH, if I have 200+ IP to pitch, I think there's plenty of evidence that Wolf > Harden + replacement. Especially since I'm not convinced that the Brewers will get replacement level out of their AAA reserves.

 

First, I find it hard to believe that the Brewers can't find a couple of 5.5 ERA pitchers to fill in if needed. The definition of replacement level suggests it's an almost certainty. Off the top of my head, Villy, Soup and vargas fit the bill. Probably one or two guys in AAA as well.

 

Second, if we are only concerned with 2010, I agree that a reasonable projection can make Wolf > Harden + 5.5 ERA pitcher. Wolf at 4.2 ERA and 175 IP vs. Harden at 3.95 and 120 IP, for instance. But as I said earlier, if you also factor in their salaries, they would be even value for 2010. After after you consider Wolf's 2011 and 2012 part of the contract, it makes harden's contract look quite attractive to some.

 

To address another person's comment, no, there is no guarantee Harden was interested in the Brewers at $7.5 mil. Same could be true of Penny. Even if the going rate had been $8.5 mil, I think I still would have preferred it over Wolf's deal. If most teams end up paying Wolf's rate to buy FA pitchers this off season, as big of an offense. If most end up paying the Penny/Harden rate, I will be disappointed.

I think the idea that replacement level is evenly split among all organizations at all positions is false. The Brewers failed to find a number of guys that were replacement level last year. And, perhaps more to the point, it wasn't at all obvious at first glance what they had that was the best option and they lost games while cycling through their options. Neither Villanueva nor Suppan were replacement level as starters last year and although regression to the mean is likely, it's by no means guaranteed. Especially in regards to Suppan who could be done. The weakest part of the organization is starting pitching depth at the AAA level, and it doesn't take advanced analysis to suggest that guarding against exposing that weakness makes sense.

 

And, I think we are primarily concerned with 2010. It seems obvious to me that they're going to try to contend with Fielder this year, but he most certainly could be dealt after the season. I wouldn't say that the window would be closed, but it's hard to subtract a premium and underpaid talent and say the odds will be better, even if they do get a lot of young talent in return.

 

But, as I said earlier, I really don't see Harden vs. Wolf being any sort of key for 2010. Heck, Looper has set the bar real low for replacement. The Brewers will be true contenders if Bush and Parra pitch well and stuggle to win consistently otherwise.

 

Robert

[TooLiveBrew]

Harden is younger, throws harder...

This is certainly true, but over the past two seasons, Harden's avg. fastball velocity has dropped. From 2004-'07, his FB averaged right around 94 mph. In '08 & '09, it sat at 92 mph. He could certainly regain some of that velocity, but I'm not sure that's likely. Regaining velocity is another reason why I'd like to see him pursued as a RP in 2011... but that's me rambling now.

[sheethead]

I'm not saying Wolf is as bad as Suppan, but the signing feels a little similar to me. At least the market on these guys has come down a little. If anything, the Wolf contract makes me that much more disappointed in the Suppan deal.

 

Harden/Sheets/Penney are love/hate type of pitchers. You love them when they are dominating and effective, and you hate them when they have to hit the DL at what always seems like the worst time. Projections aside, the high risk of a Harden type pitcher drives down his asking price regardless of projected/forecasted values. As we all know, its impossible to tell how many innings any of these pitchers will actually pitch next year. The only thing we know for sure are the risk factors. Harden is too risky for me to appreciate his value when pitching well, as is Sheets ($12 for one year... LOL). I am always left wondering when, not if, they will be heading to the DL.

[rluzinski]

For the record, CHONE now lists Wolf's projected 2010 ERA at 4.17. Now that he's on the Brewers, his projection isn't league and park neutral. His RAR (runs above replacement) is still the same, though (all players are compared to each other in a neautral environment). So my comparisons between him and Harden, using CHONE projections are still valid. Of course, that means Harden's projected ERA on the Brewers might be closer to 3.7, which gives us something else to argue about. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Using Wolf's new ERA in our discussion and also adjusting Davis's ERA a bit:

 

Gallardo: 3.60

Wolf: 4.17

Davis: 4.50

Bush: 4.64

Parra: 4.75

Repl: 5.50

 

4.52 ERA. Better but still not quite average (at least in comparison to last year's NL starting pitchers). Even if we assume that pitching/defense will be average overall, does the offense really project to be good enough to make this a projected playoff team?

[Funketown]

For the record, CHONE now lists Wolf's projected 2010 ERA at 4.17. Now that he's on the Brewers, his projection isn't league and park neutral. His RAR (runs above replacement) is still the same, though (all players are compared to each other in a neautral environment). So my comparisons between him and Harden, using CHONE projections are still valid. Of course, that means Harden's projected ERA on the Brewers might be closer to 3.7, which gives us something else to argue about. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Using Wolf's new ERA in our discussion and also adjusting Davis's ERA a bit:

 

Gallardo: 3.60

Wolf: 4.17

Davis: 4.50

Bush: 4.64

Parra: 4.75

Repl: 5.50

 

4.52 ERA. Better but still not quite average (at least in comparison to last year's NL starting pitchers). Even if we assume that pitching/defense will be average overall, does the offense really project to be good enough to make this a projected playoff team?

I haven't made any projections yet, but I would think this team projects to a mean of 80-85 wins right now. Now, this is assuming that Gomez is not a complete black hole in the lineup while playing great defense, which is a serious concern.

 

I certainly don't have the data, but I would estimate that a (projected) 75 win team would make the playoffs something like 5-10% of the time, an 80 win team 10-20% of the time, and an 85 win team 25-30% of the time. Maybe the 85 win team number is low. If the Brewers had a 20% chance to make the playoffs every year, I think I'd be happy. Even with a projected 80-win season, I'm just hoping this will be an exciting year (as in, playoff push).

[RockCoCougars]

Harden is younger, throws harder...

This is certainly true, but over the past two seasons, Harden's avg. fastball velocity has dropped. From 2004-'07, his FB averaged right around 94 mph. In '08 & '09, it sat at 92 mph. He could certainly regain some of that velocity, but I'm not sure that's likely. Regaining velocity is another reason why I'd like to see him pursued as a RP in 2011... but that's me rambling now.

Exactly my thought. I think that Harden would be a great closer, which is one reason that I would have offered him three years. His stats the first time through the lineup are very good, plus he would only need two pitches to close. My thought was sign him as a starter this year, keeping in mind he could succeed Hoffman in 2011 if he wasn't able to log enough innings in the rotation.

[jjfanec]

Harden is younger, throws harder...

This is certainly true, but over the past two seasons, Harden's avg. fastball velocity has dropped. From 2004-'07, his FB averaged right around 94 mph. In '08 & '09, it sat at 92 mph. He could certainly regain some of that velocity, but I'm not sure that's likely. Regaining velocity is another reason why I'd like to see him pursued as a RP in 2011... but that's me rambling now.

Exactly my thought. I think that Harden would be a great closer, which is one reason that I would have offered him three years. His stats the first time through the lineup are very good, plus he would only need two pitches to close. My thought was sign him as a starter this year, keeping in mind he could succeed Hoffman in 2011 if he wasn't able to log enough innings in the rotation.

I am not saying that it would definitely not work, but a guy with arm injuries and arm fatigue problems like Harden may struggle being able to pitch two or three days in a row. He would be great as a reliever if he could stay healthy and strong over a full season