LaTroy Hawkins signs a 2 year/$7.5 mil deal with the Brewers

[PeaveyFury]

Anyone can go into a car dealer and buy a $20k car for $22k. Melvin needed to get a $25k car for $22k.

 

Being GM in Milwaukee often requires one to pay $22k for the $20k car, though. That's a factor you haven't acknowledged in your analysis to this point.

[RyDogg66]

The bottom line is we cant afford to pay closers closer money to come to Milwaukee to set up Hoffman. we need depth and Melvin is adding it. Hawkins is decent insurance of Hoffman goes down. I see him filling the role of Solomon Torres in 2008 who we paid 3.33 million dollars to come set up a year after he put up a 5.47 ERA in Pittsburgh.

 

By adding Hawkins it improves depth all over the bullpen. I just cant get too upset that Melvin is adding He has had an ERA+ above 100 every year since 2002 and from what I can tell has been durable.

[endaround]

What he was last year was exceptionally lucky. He pitched as well as he did in 2008 but got a strand rate of 91%. He's a 4.00 ERA reliever.

[Ennder]

I don't know about that, his ERA has been under 4.00 for 7 of the last 8 years. 2007 was a spike in HR/FB%, 2008 was a bad LOB%, 2009 was a good LOB%. xFIP likes him for slightly below 4.00 ERA which is probably about the right level. Just like with the Wolf deal, I like the deal ok but I think we overspent to get it.

[sargennm]

TH speculates on Twitter that this means Seth McClung will likely be non-tendered.

[RyDogg66]

Anyone can go into a car dealer and buy a $20k car for $22k. Melvin needed to get a $25k car for $22k.

 

Being GM in Milwaukee often requires one to pay $22k for the $20k car, though. That's a factor you haven't acknowledged in your analysis to this point.

That, and if someone else is offering 21k for the 20k car and it is the only one available and you want it, you have to pay more than the other guy to get it.

[endaround]

I assumed that was going to happen no matter what. Its Villaneuava who looks to be on thin ice right now.

[PeaveyFury]

That, and if someone else is offering 21k for the 20k car and it is the only one available and you want it, you have to pay more than the other guy to get it.

 

Indeed. It's fine to look at things in a vacuum and say 'x amount of production is worth y dollars', but there are outside factors in a free market that need to be taken into account as well.

[rluzinski]

Anyone can go into a car dealer and buy a $20k car for $22k. Melvin needed to get a $25k car for $22k.

 

Being GM in Milwaukee often requires one to pay $22k for the $20k car, though. That's a factor you haven't acknowledged in your analysis to this point.

 

I think was more true when the Brewers stunk. It's still probably a factor but what are we talking about here? If it is even 10%, I would be surprised. I don't think any of us really know, though. If Melvin really needs to spend 10% more than anyone else, that suggests that maybe he shouldn't be signing high profile, 37 year old reliever in the first place. I'd rather get a 4.0 ERA/60 IP reliever for $1.5 mil and be done with it, personally. And I think there's a couple people in this thread that are getting fooled by his ERA from last year. He won't touch that this year. I'm thinking 3.6 ERA. I see his velocity is still great, so hopefully I'm seriously underestimating his worth.

[silversurferr]

I would like to see them move Villy for a better arm. I do not understand fan fascination with him. He is mediocre out of the pen (who occasionally gets destroyed), and no matter how you spin it, he is a liability as a starter. He is a back-end bullpenner.

[PKBadger]

I don't know about that, his ERA has been under 4.00 for 7 of the last 8 years. 2007 was a spike in HR/FB%, 2008 was a bad LOB%, 2009 was a good LOB%. xFIP likes him for slightly below 4.00 ERA which is probably about the right level. Just like with the Wolf deal, I like the deal ok but I think we overspent to get it.

 

It's also worth noting that the two sub-par performance stretches during those 8 years were when he was pitching in the AL East.

 

But if there's one thing I've learned in 5 years reading this board, it's that any time a pitcher over 30 puts up good numbers, he got lucky. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

So you want the Brewers to trade a pitcher that you think is bad, & somehow bring one in that is good?

[Invader3K]

I would like to see them move Villy for a better arm. I do not understand fan fascination with him. He is mediocre out of the pen (who occasionally gets destroyed), and no matter how you spin it, he is a liability as a starter. He is a back-end bullpenner.

I agree. He seemed to show signs of being really awful last year. I'd rather move him now if at all possible before he's completely worthless.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Can we look at this like we upgraded from McClung to hawkins and it only cost $2.5 million, I think this move and the Wolf move has been excellent. Guys this pitching staff was HORRID last year.

[PeaveyFury]

I think was more true when the Brewers stunk.

 

I'd agree with you if Wolf's agent wasn't reportedly walking around the Meetings yesterday practically begging another team to match the Brewers' offer. Coupled with Ray Rice's comments about the state this week, I think there's a serious perception problem with athletes and a resulting reluctance to come here unless they're blown away.

 

I'd rather get a 4.0 ERA/60 IP reliever for $1.5 mil and be done with it, personally.

 

I agree. But who exactly is that reliever?

[logan82]

Guys this pitching staff was HORRID last year.

 

Everybody is well aware of that. Better than 2009 doesn't mean good.

[silversurferr]

I did not mean TRADE Villanueva for a better pitcher. Obviously, I do not think he has much value. Clear the spot, and add a better arm. Move Villy, trade Hart for a pitcher, play Gamel in RF.

[wishicouldhit]

wow what a great day. I thought i was goin to use this snow day to edit my 12 page paper due on friday but instead i got to see the brewers make some aggressive moves

[fondybrewfan]

Price is a little high, but Hawkins has been consistently good (Outside of his stint with the Yanks)

 

Overall our pitching staff is much better than it was 24 hours ago.

 

Crew should just release Villy, I am not sure he has a whole lot of value to the organization anymore. At best he is #6 on the reliever depth chart behind Hoffman, Coffey, Hawkins, Vargas, and Stetter. The way it looks now Suppan is probably the long man so Villy serves no purpose anymore

[rluzinski]

CHONE projects for Vargas to have a 4.1 ERA, so maybe we already have signed him. NL relievers had a 4.0 ERA last year. The fact that Hawkins might beat that by only a quarter run over 60 IP has limited value. That's about a 2 run improvement. It will be in a higher lev. situations, so maybe it's closer to 3 or 4 runs. It will be interesting to see what Vargas was signed for.

[colbyjack]

Overall our pitching staff is much better than it was 24 hours ago.

 

Absolutely. I know it's easy to get caught up on the money involved since it directly correlates to who else the team can or can't sign, but the team did get better today. I didn't even expect the Brewers to address their bullpen this offseason, figuring they would go into 2010 with what they had.

 

I agree that it seems as though someone may be the odd person out, or that Coffey might even be trade to take advantage of his value at this point in time. Even if he isn't, I like how the 'pen currently stacks up with Hoffman, Coffey and Hawkins late, Villanueva as a swing man, Vargas in a diverse role and Stetter as the lefty specialist. Smith, Dillard, Narveson, Axford, Aguilar, Wooten and Braddock are all going to provide valuable AA/AAA depth, and 1-2 of them might even sneak onto the opening day roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Melvin try to find a lefty specialist in tomorrow's Rule 5 draft.

 

Pretty exciting day overall.

[endaround]

Narveson is out of options

[bobbledude25]

Hawkins delivery is so smooth it is awesome...I always liked watching him pitch. Good signing

[TooLiveBrew]

Might as well post this on Hawkins, too... (via FanGraphs)

 

FB: 93.5 mph (career avg.), thrown 75% of the time (career avg.)

SL: 87.5 mph, 11.5%

CB: 79.4 mph, 7.7%

CH: 83.5 mph, 5.6%

 

 

Hawkins has trended away from his FB over the course of his career. This has been especially true for the past three seasons, working more with his secondary pitches -- esp. the slider, but also his curve. This is a guy that should reasonably pitch at a level of ~4.00 xFIP. While I don't like seeing a relatively large FA contract go to another RP, Hawkins should be worth the deal, provided he stays healthy.

[igor67]

My sense is that Melvin has moved this to a mid 80's win total type team. That's not stellar, but in most seasons that will be competitive for a playoff spot late into the season, and that doesn't count any benefit of being in it and making a big trade at the deadline. Further improvement is going to be tough, but I think he's done enough to field a respectable team that he can afford to sit back and try for something special/complex. From his perspective imagine the risk involved in making a play for Lackey only to see most of the other best options disappear? There was a substantial time risk to spending a lot of effort trying to match up on trades for starting pitching.

Put another way now that we know what he spent the money on Cameron and Hardy for Gomez, Hawkins, and Wolf seems solid when you plug Escobar in at SS.