Randy Wolf to Sign with Brewers, 3 years plus club option/$29.75 million

[RobertR]

IP Range		Odds	Ave IP
230	- 211	7%	220.5
210	- 191	26%	200.5
190	- 171	30%	180.5
170	- 151	12%	160.5
150	- 131	5%	140.5
130	- 111	5%	120.5
110	- 91	4%	100.5
90	- 71	3%	80.5
70	- 51	3%	60.5
50	- 31	2%	40.5
30	- 11	2%	20.5
10	- 0	1%	5
		100%	164
At least 180 IP:			63%
Less than 91 IP::			11%

If I told you Wolf had 2 in 3 odds of having 180+ IP and 1 in 10 shot at having less than 90, would you call me a lier? How about if I told you the most likely Ip range was 190-171? My assumptions above have a weighted average of 164 IP.

 

This is all made up of course. It would be interesting to look at all 30+ pitchers who accumulated at least 360 innings the previous year. What did their IP distribution look like?

Looking at that chart it really convinces me that we're a little simplistic in assigning numbers based on a linear model. Heck, we're probably looking at a three dimensional shape with probability, IP, and rate performance, making the three axes. I can't think of a better method than weighted average, but I think it's likely that it's only telling part of the story and the shape matters.

 

Robert

[JJHardy7]

If I told you Wolf had 2 in 3 odds of having 180+ IP and 1 in 10 shot at having less than 90, would you call me a lier? How about if I told you the most likely Ip range was 190-171? My assumptions above have a weighted average of 164 IP.

 

What is the best way to project that though? Isn't some of it pure 'luck' that statistics really can't project? I mean it's a nice tool, but I guess any pitcher could get hurt in any given year. Some may have more of a chance than others, but any pitcher has a risk of getting hurt.

[endaround]

If I told you Wolf had 2 in 3 odds of having 180+ IP and 1 in 10 shot at having less than 90, would you call me a lier? How about if I told you the most likely Ip range was 190-171? My assumptions above have a weighted average of 164 IP.

 

What is the best way to project that though? Isn't some of it pure 'luck' that statistics really can't project? I mean it's a nice tool, but I guess any pitcher could get hurt in any given year. Some may have more of a chance than others, but any pitcher has a risk of getting hurt.

 

There are a few things here. Injuries are idiosynchratic to be sure but so are lots of performance issues. The idea is that much like other stats a large sample can give you an idea of waht to expect. The problem comes with the errors. While not exactly in most systems its assumed that at least locally errors around a projected value behave quasi-normal. Meaning that if you project a guy to hit .270 its about equally likely for him to hit .260 as .280. With innings pitched however there is a large probability mass at zero that can throw things off. For example if you project a guy at 150 innings, he has a decent chance of throwing zero innings but no chance to throw 300. That's exaggerated for effect but I think it illustrates an issue. So while the distribution of say an ERA projection might not be very illuminating, the distribution of a innings pitched would be incredibly informative.

[rluzinski]

I know the exact calculation to predict how many heads I should get in 10 flips but I'll be wrong more often than I'm right. For IP, we can't possibly quantiy all the variables involved. All you can do is look at historical data and create a model. Add whatever relevant scouting and medical information you feel is relevant and make your best guess.

[tigerbrew]

If Wolf was truly the "2nd best free agent pitcher", don't you think that a big market team would have pushed harder for him?

 

How many big market teams need to spend money on pitching this year? Lackey and Halladay are going to be the targets of big market teams. The Mets have too many holes to fill, and Wolf would have eaten up a significant portion of their remaining budget.

I think maybe Andy Pettitte is the 2nd best free agent pitcher, considering the division he's in and his consistency in staying healthy with over 200 IPs each year. I think the Mets went hard at him, but as we all know he will only pitch for the Yankees.

[TooLiveBrew]

Pettitte has actually re-signed with the Yankees (not sure if you knew that or not, tb). I think he got something like $11M for one year.

[tigerbrew]

Yes I know, good deal for the Yanks. I just think that Wolf is not truly the 2nd best FA pitcher.

 

[And That]

Could Pettite have been considered the 2nd best FA pitcher if the only team he was going to sign with was the Yankees?

[snyttri]

?4) Jackson/Overbay - no one other than DM knows what was available or offered. We cannot speculate here based on rumors or what-ifs. Everyone knew we wanted to trade Overbay so we cannot have expected much.?

 

According to Adam McCalvy on the Brewers website the Brewers chose chose Bush over Arroyo:

 

"Melvin chose to trade for Bush over a deal with the Boston Red Sox that would have netted either Bronson Arroyo or Matt Clement. The Brewers preferred Bush over Arroyo, and Clement's large salary was a turnoff."(04/08/06)

[bobskube]

I'm rooting for Wolf every single outing he pitches and I hope I am wrong, but I really dislike this deal.

 

Save this and stick it in my face if I am wrong and I hope I am.

[logan82]

I have this look at starting pitching from all NL teams in 2009. Cells X230-AH230 show the averages for each spot in the rotation based on 32 starts per spot. X230-AB230 being average innings per start and AD230-AH230 being average ERA per spot in the rotation. It is also a complete list of each guy who got a start on every NL team.

[LouisEly]

I think it's clear that baseball really values guys that can potentially provide 200 IP. For a variety of reasons, bullpen strain, the difficulty in identifying replacement level vs. sub-replacement level pitchers, the ability to bypass the lesser members of bullpen, etc. I'd agree that every one of these factors are marginal in and of themselves, but you combine them all and that's where the benefit lies beyond the numbers. Even if it's just a win or two. Then again, a win or two is pretty valuable.

 

I think there is a lot of truth to this. Looking back at the Kazmir reference, what teams have to project is what are they going to get from ~32/33 starts from each starting spot, a few more for the #1/#2 guys by working the schedule and breaks properly. So for 32/33 starts to get an average of 6.5 innings from your starter you are looking at ~210 innings. Now, a guy like Kazmir may be very good but 4 of 6 years he was under 150IP; if that happens, that means needing at least 60 innings from guys not among your top 5 starters or wearing out your bullpen. If you have good young upper minor league starters it may not hurt you to bring them up to fill those 60+ innings. However if you don't, and other than Josh Butler they have no top starters who have been successful at AA or above yet (lots of Brevard talent moving up, but haven't proven they can handle the jump to AA yet), you end up filling that with your Mike Burns-es, your Seth McClungs, your Carlos Villanueva's, etc.

 

So in that example if Kazmir gives you 150 innings at 3.75 ERA, but you fill the remaining 60 innings with a 6.00 ERA Mike Burns or equivalent, that jumps that starting slot ERA from 3.75 to 4.39 over 210 innings and is now no longer worth the $12M you are paying Kazmir. But a Randy Wolf who can give you a 4.10 ERA at $9M at that slot for 210 innings ends up being a better value than the $12M for a 4.39 ERA that Kazmir/Burns gives you. I think that explains the premium placed on good but non-spectacular durability.

[Ennder]

?4) Jackson/Overbay - no one other than DM knows what was available or offered. We cannot speculate here based on rumors or what-ifs. Everyone knew we wanted to trade Overbay so we cannot have expected much.?

 

According to Adam McCalvy on the Brewers website the Brewers chose chose Bush over Arroyo:

 

"Melvin chose to trade for Bush over a deal with the Boston Red Sox that would have netted either Bronson Arroyo or Matt Clement. The Brewers preferred Bush over Arroyo, and Clement's large salary was a turnoff."(04/08/06)

Well to be fair Clement would have been a disaster and before Bush got hit in the arm last year and Arroyo had his great second half his career ERA was pretty much exactly the same as Arroyo's. The difference between those two are really the last 70 IP or so they pitched.

[rluzinski]

That's what WAR is doing. It's measuring the difference between the starter and a 5.5 ERA scrub. So if Harden can't pitch because he's hurt, Burns does. 1/2 great + 1/2 terrible = 1/2 average. Now, I appreciate the argument that it's still better to have just 1 pitcher used instead of two (roster space, more available depth, etc...). But I'd use that more as a tiebreaker than anything else.

 

If the argument is that Wolf is worth more to the Brewers because they don't have access to enough 5.5 ERA pitchers, that doesn't pass the smell test to me. Those 5.5 ERA guys cost almost nothing to aquire.

 

We may just have to agree to disagree. I'm sure fans and GMs don't like to ever have to trot out a AAA fill-in, so sometimes I think average inning eaters are overvalued, especially since yesterday's inning eater is today's hurt pitcher.

[endaround]

?4) Jackson/Overbay - no one other than DM knows what was available or offered. We cannot speculate here based on rumors or what-ifs. Everyone knew we wanted to trade Overbay so we cannot have expected much.?

 

According to Adam McCalvy on the Brewers website the Brewers chose chose Bush over Arroyo:

 

"Melvin chose to trade for Bush over a deal with the Boston Red Sox that would have netted either Bronson Arroyo or Matt Clement. The Brewers preferred Bush over Arroyo, and Clement's large salary was a turnoff."(04/08/06)

Well to be fair Clement would have been a disaster and before Bush got hit in the arm last year and Arroyo had his great second half his career ERA was pretty much exactly the same as Arroyo's. The difference between those two are really the last 70 IP or so they pitched.

 

Arroyo also had used a heck of a lot more service time. There is a reason why he cost $9.5m last year and $11m this year.

[RobertR]

I'd really like to have someone with a background in insurance discuss risk. A weighted average is a useful thing, but it's really reducing to one point a cloud of potential outcomes.

 

One thing I'd like to see is something like the 30th and 70th percentiles for Wolf's projections. That strikes me as about his most realistic upside and downside barring injury. Obviously there's various types of risk involved, performance and injury for instance, and I kind of think that the various models have holes in regards to injury risk. Any projection for Ben Sheets last year by stuff like CHONE or Marcel was wrong before the doctors took a look at him. I'd certainly like to have an idea of Wolf's medical evaluation in this instance.

 

I don't know Russ, looking at what the Brewers actually have now, I don't think they have enough 5.5 ERA guys in AAA. It's not like those guys don't get hurt, have off years, etc. too. Now, I expect that they'll go out and try to get some, but I'd sure prefer to have some top prospects that could perhaps put up a high 4 ERA. As it is, they're looking at acquiring guys whose upside is probably low 5 ERA in MLB and whose downside is worse than 5.5 ERA.

 

Robert

[joepepsi]

I don't think he's a huge injury risk. He's pitched well the last couple years with no injury problems. He had TJ surgery in 2005. Can't remember the source but as I recall most TJ surgery pitchers that fully recover are less of an injury risk after the surgery than before.

 

In 2007 he had shoulder surgery. Since then he's thrown 400+ innings. I'd say the shoulder's fine.

 

Since he's had surgeries to repair the two major injury areas for a pitcher and come back strong for two seasons, I'd say he is less of an injury risk than the typical major league starter who's never had TJ or shoulder surgery.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Does anyone know how injury insurance works? Many have speculated a good chunk of the Riske contract was covered by insurance. If Wolf goes and blows his arm out on the first pitch in April, what type of offset could insurance provide for a $29.75MM albatross? Could that be factored into some of the projections or do you just assume the actuaries have it right and there is an ongoing cost of the insurance so it all evens out?

[CheezWizHed]

Does anyone know how injury insurance works? Many have speculated a good chunk of the Riske contract was covered by insurance. If Wolf goes and blows his arm out on the first pitch in April, what type of offset could insurance provide for a $29.75MM albatross? Could that be factored into some of the projections or do you just assume the actuaries have it right and there is an ongoing cost of the insurance so it all evens out?

I think the team has to actually purchase the insurance for individual players. More often than not, they don't purchase it. I doubt Riske was covered, but am only speculating.

[Teatoe993]

I don't remember anything mentioned in this thread, but does anyone know how the contract breaks down moneywise each year? I'm not a fan of the Brewers practice of backloading their contracts. Hall and Suppan's deals are handcuffing us financially because they were backloaded and I'm afraid the Braun (even though I don't see his performance tanking) deal will handcuff us as well. I'd very much prefer Wolf just gets paid 10 million each year instead of something like 16 million in 2012.

[logan82]

Wolf:

$9.25 million in 2010, $9.5 million in 2011, $9.5 million in 2012. Club option for $10 million in 2013 with $1.5 million buyout. An additional $250,000 a year in incentive bonuses -- $125,000 for 190 innings adn $125,000 for 200 innings. Limited no-trade clause and additional payment of $250,000 if traded. Link

[Invader3K]

I'm glad they apparently spaced things out relatively evenly with this one. In retrospect the Suppan deal would look not as bad if they had paid him more early on.

[Invader3K]

Press conference live right now here: http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?topic_id=6261176

[brewerfan82]

Slightly off topic, but does anyone else notice how much Randy Wolf looks like Geoff Jenkins? Kinda creeping me out.

Watching the press conference... it is kind of creepy.

 

 

Edit: Hahahah, Doug just referenced how Wolf looks like Jenkins.

[sargennm]

Listening to Wolf on Homer right now. He said he's a "Star Wars nerd." I have a feeling that's going to endure him to a few posters around here.

 

Also, came off as a likable guy who I am sure will be a go to for the media when they are looking for a quote. I'll try to remember to post the link to the interview when 540 posts it later.