Randy Wolf to Sign with Brewers, 3 years plus club option/$29.75 million

[sargennm]

What I think the Brewers should be doing is making trades like the Hart for Maine suggestion. Making trades like the Diamondbacks/Tigers for young pitchers. Taking chances on low cost high risk/high reward pitchers ala Mulder.

I so tire of the "They shoulda made this debunked trade rumor." It was a rumor. That's it. And if you think Wolf's three year contract is a risk, what about trading a decent, veteran everyday player for a guy who may never take the mound again.

 

I don't believe the Brewers can be a successful franchise following the free agent route because their resoucres are limited. We have to act like the Twins, and not the low rent version of the Yanks or Red Sox.

How many World Series titles have the Twins won with this approach? I'm not sure why the Twins are held up as this great model when they manage to get bounced from the first round every year. They do some things right, but they, nor the Brewers, will ever win a championship without taking some risks. The Wolf contract is a pretty good one.

 

Signing old pitchers to big contracts is a fool's game. Signing older pitchers to one year incentive laden contracts, that then return us draft choices, is an excellent strategy for a team like the Brewers.

Last year's staff was so bad, they had to sign somebody besides a high-risk, high reward guy. It would be great if they could bring in Duchscherer, Sheets and Mulder and have one or two of them work out. But their track records suggest none of them will. Wolf's suggests that he will be at least in average starting pitcher for the Crew this year and next. Melvin had to make a move for a guy like Wolf and then take some shots on guys like Mulder and Duchscherer. Indications are that he will do exactly that.

 

It's unfortunate that the Brewers had to go this route and don't have home grown pitching help on the horizon. But comparing this signing to that of Suppan is just silly based on both past performance and pure stuff.

[jjfanec]

What I think the Brewers should be doing is making trades like the Hart for Maine suggestion. Making trades like the Diamondbacks/Tigers for young pitchers. Taking chances on low cost high risk/high reward pitchers ala Mulder.

I so tire of the "They shoulda made this debunked trade rumor." It was a rumor. That's it. And if you think Wolf's three year contract is a risk, what about trading a decent, veteran everyday player for a guy who may never take the mound again.

 

I don't believe the Brewers can be a successful franchise following the free agent route because their resoucres are limited. We have to act like the Twins, and not the low rent version of the Yanks or Red Sox.

How many World Series titles have the Twins won with this approach? I'm not sure why the Twins are held up as this great model when they manage to get bounced from the first round every year. They do some things right, but they, nor the Brewers, will ever win a championship without taking some risks. The Wolf contract is a pretty good one.

 

Signing old pitchers to big contracts is a fool's game. Signing older pitchers to one year incentive laden contracts, that then return us draft choices, is an excellent strategy for a team like the Brewers.

Last year's staff was so bad, they had to sign somebody besides a high-risk, high reward guy. It would be great if they could bring in Duchscherer, Sheets and Mulder and have one or two of them work out. But their track records suggest none of them will. Wolf's suggests that he will be at least in average starting pitcher for the Crew this year and next. Melvin had to make a move for a guy like Wolf and then take some shots on guys like Mulder and Duchscherer. Indications are that he will do exactly that.

 

It's unfortunate that the Brewers had to go this route and don't have home grown pitching help on the horizon. But comparing this signing to that of Suppan is just silly based on both past performance and pure stuff.

I agree 100% here sarge. People love to fall in love with proposed trades that may have no validity or they like to think we have pulled off trades like the Granderson trade for pitching but I just do not see how we had the pieces for some of those trades. We are a terrible match in trading for a guy like Jackson because the Tigers wanted young pitching, and Scherzer would have been great but look at the pieces and see how we could match that. We have some good minor league talent but teams are not lining up to trade young pitching unless it is a guy who is coming off a bad year. That can work great, or it can back fire and to trade for someone you need to trade your talent as well. Wolf is much more projectable for a rotation that has too many question marks to try to fill through bounce back guys.

[silversurferr]

Wolf is a solid two-three guy. Very good signing....if he stays healthy. And he's a lefty, which give us room to move Parra, if necessary, in a deal for a pricier, but better veteran. Oh yeah, three other reasons this is a good signing: 1) Washburn, 2) Davis, 3) Garland. Yikes! Ducked those (83 mph) bullets!

[CheezWizHed]

Making trades ... for young pitchers.

 

Somehow, I think that is easier to say than do. I'm sure if Melvin would do this if he can. I'm sure he is looking at those avenues also (like Hart for Maine)

 

I completely agree that we need to follow the Twins model of franchise building, but face facts. We have a hole in our pitching prospects that needs to be filled (this is where Jones/Rogers/Jeffress was supposed to step in). As someone else pointed out, the Twins do sign FAs to fill holes. If we don't sign some FAs this year, our pitching is going to bring us down yet again.

 

Melvin & Co. have built a competitive environment. Fans expect them to win. Players expect to win. Not doing anything starts undoing those expectations. Support drops back to Selig levels and we get set back again.

 

I think Wolf was a good signing. He was definitely needed this year. I just hope we don't sign anymore long term contracts for FA pitchers. Look for 1 year contracts for the second SP or a trade.

[logan82]

I think we need to look at how good he is as a pitcher and not where he ranks in relation to all the other FA pitchers in a really bad looking FA pitching market. Stuff like "he would have been better than all but one pitcher for us last year" and "he is the 2nd best pitcher on the FA market" isn't really justification for the signing. 2nd best looking person in a group of ugly people is still ugly. I don't hate the deal, but I am not a fan of it either.

 

Looks like the deal is for $29.75M over 3 years. Link

 

That aggressive pursuit culminated Wednesday morning in a three-year deal with a club option for a fourth year that will pay the 33-year-old Wolf $29.75 million.

[giffted1]

I think the odds are pretty high that Wolf is worth the 29 million over the life of the contract. I am really getting sick of people comparing Suppan to Wolf....

I think the much better comparison would be Wolf to Chris Capuano.

 

Career K/9

Wolf: 7.42

Cappy: 7.40

 

Career BB/9

Wolf: 3.24

Cappy: 3.04

 

Career K/BB

Wolf: 2.29

Cappy: 2.44

 

Career HR/9

Wolf: 1.13

Cappy: 1.28

 

Career ERA:

Wolf: 4.12

Cappy: 4.39

 

Career FIP:

Wolf: 4.28

Cappy: 4.49

 

Career xFIP:

Wolf: 4.24

Cappy: 4.29

 

Career tRA:

Wolf: 4.93

Cappy: 5.14

 

So the question is: Do you feel that the Chris Capuano (circa 2007) aged a few years is worth what Wolf is getting? I don't.

[JoeHova]

It's unfortunate that the Brewers had to go this route and don't have home grown pitching help on the horizon. But comparing this signing to that of Suppan is just silly based on both past performance and pure stuff.

No it's not. Nobody is saying that Wolf is exactly the same pitcher that Suppan was at the time of his signing. What they're (or at least, I'm) saying is that Wolf is the same general type of mid-level, average-ish pitcher. Slightly above average, whereas Suppan was slightly below average. I would have thought that Suppan failing so spectacularly would have clued Doug into the idea that signing average guys to market value contracts carries more risk than reward and that it's not a fruitful way to tie up 25% of your budget, but apparently not.

[CheezWizHed]

How many World Series titles have the Twins won with this approach?

 

Two more lately than the Brewers (1987 & 1991 - ignoring 1924 right now). Plus Central division titles in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009!

 

We compare far closer to the Twins than the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, or Dodgers. They are an excellent model for any small revenue team to follow. They haven't won the WS in quite a while, but making the playoffs consistently is far more than the Brewers have done in a long time. It would be nice if the Brewers were consistently above .500.

[sargennm]

How many World Series titles have the Twins won with this approach?

 

Two more lately than the Brewers (1987 & 1991 - ignoring 1924 right now). Plus Central division titles in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009!

 

We compare far closer to the Twins than the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, or Dodgers. They are an excellent model for any small revenue team to follow. They haven't won the WS in quite a while, but making the playoffs consistently is far more than the Brewers have done in a long time. It would be nice if the Brewers were consistently above .500.

Yeah, except '87 and '91 were a totally different era in major league baseball, free agency and spending money on players. The point is that the tightfisted tactics of the Twins have scored them tons of division titles but literally nothing else. There has to be a middle ground between the consistent mild success of the Twins and the WS titles followed by terrible seasons of the Marlins.

[silversurferr]

I think we are doing many of the same things the Twins are doing. Big difference is that we have not spent as much draft energy on pitching, and when we have, we crapped out. As much credit as Jack Z gets for the core offense, he should get as much blame for the lack of young pitching talent. I assume Jack Z was also involved in the Rogers, Jeffress, et al, picks.

[rluzinski]

Quick and dirty projection. Just taking a weighted average of Wolf's last 3 years (50%/30%/20%):

 

184 IP

4.17 ERA

4.03 FIP

 

Averaging ERA and FIP gives us a 4.10 ERA. He's also a year older, so you need to add at least .2 ERA (and that's probably too low). So we end up with a 4.3 ERA projection for 2010. A couple of other projections:

 

CHONE: 4.42 ERA, 163 IP

James: 3.87 ERA, 200 IP (I think James has lost his marbles http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif)

 

Let's say we are being optimistic and not only assume that over the course of the contract, the .2 ERA/year drop continues but that he'll also average 180 IP/year:

 

2010: 4.3 ERA, 190 IP

2011: 4.5 ERA, 180 IP

2012: 4.7 ERA, 170 IP

 

If he's averaging $10 mil/year, he's probably worth that in 2010. I can't see a good argument being made that he should be expected to earn that in 2011 or 2012, however. My rough estimates puts Wolf worth something like $9/$7/$5 over the next 3 years. So, 3/$21 mil. As far as I'm concerned, Melvin spent around $9 mil more than Wolf is worth.

 

I hate the argument that Melvin had to do something, as if this was truly the best option left (on December 9th). Even if EVERY above average starting pitcher who wanted a multi-year deal ends up being overpriced, sign 1 or 2 average arms coming off injury for $7-$9 mil per. The Penny deal looks pretty good to me, for instance. Hell, trade for a slightly below average pitcher (4.5ish ERA) and invest the $10 mil on offense (5 extra runs saved by pitching/fielding IS equal to 5 extra runs scored, as far as I can see). There are always options, especially when you are trying to upgrade from replacement level.

 

I don't want to overstate my unhappiness for this signing. "Wasting" $9 mil over 3 years does not begin to compare to the Suppan deal. It makes the 2010 Brewers much better and it's not going to cripple the franchise overall. I just don't think this is the kind of signing a well run franchise with very limited funds should be making. I think Melvin could have done better.

[Funketown]

So the question is: Do you feel that the Chris Capuano (circa 2007) aged a few years is worth what Wolf is getting? I don't.

Probably not quite, but if Capuano had a similar injury history to Wolf, giving him something like 3/24 million would seem like a decent deal for both sides. I do think Wolf is slightly better than Capuano was a few years ago, so I just don't think that 3/29 is a huge overpay. They might be overpaying by a couple million, but making it out to be a Suppan-esque deal, which many here are, is completely misguided.

[Invader3K]

Well, Tom Haudricourt just said in his blog comments that we should "forget about Ben Sheets". That's one less of these theoretical "ace potential injury guys" that Melvin could go after and pretend they're 100% assured to be able to pitch most of the season.

[JohnBriggs12]

As an added bonus, Wolf is one of the better hitting pitchers in baseball with a .181 career average. Twice he's hit double digits in RBI, including last year with 11. He also has 5 career HR, and an amazing 26 career doubles. That's in 509 career ABs. For comparison, consider Kendall in 452 AB's last year had 19 doubles and 2 HR. Essentially he's a bigger extra base threat than the Brewer starting catcher was last year.

[Schlitz001]

You have to love a pitcher that can hit a little bit.

 

Wolf is a quality pitcher. He was in the top ten in the NL last year in WHIP (1.10), BAA (.227), OBP (.285), SLG (.375), OPS (.660), and Quality Starts (24). If he can come close to those numbers again this year and avoids injury, he will be a nice addition. I just hope DM isn't done yet and can trade for another SP or sign a high risk/high reward type SP to a 1 year deal.

[rluzinski]

That's one less of these theoretical "ace potential injury guys" that Melvin could go after and pretend they're 100% assured to be able to pitch most of the season.

 

No one is assuming Wolf is 100% assured to pitch most of the season, so talk about a straw man argument. You here many suggesting signing a pair of those kind of pitchers, since you could possibly pencil them in for 180+ innings.

 

As an added bonus, Wolf is one of the better hitting pitchers in baseball with a .181 career average.

 

NL P, 2009: .138/.179/.175/.354

Wolf, 07-09: .154/.208/.218/.426

 

A .071 OPS upgrade over 70ish AB? Better than the alternative, I guess.

[Invader3K]

I wouldn't assume Wolf will go the entire season (hopefully he will), but certainly he has a stronger chance to pitch more innings than Sheets, Harden, etc. And Melvin could still sign one of those guys anyway.

[kramnoj]

And I hate the argument that Melvin had to do something, as if this was the only option

 

Can you find one person who has said this is the only option? The opinion of those who like the deal seem to be that this is the best option.

 

if EVERY above average starting pitcher who wants a multi-year deal ends up being overpriced, sign 1 or 2 average arms coming off injury for $7-$9 mil per.

 

That could theoretically work. It could also easily result in expensive, bad performances as seen by Red Sox fans in 2009.

 

Hell, trade for a slightly below average pitcher (4.5ish ERA) and invest the $10 mil on offense (5 extra runs saved by pitching/fielding IS equal to 5 extra runs scored, as far as I can see). There are always options, especially when you are trying to upgrade from replacement level.

 

This could also theoretically work. But having a good offense and bad pitching didn't do anything for the Brewers in 2009, and Melvin wasn't going to try that again.

 

Maybe the success of drawing fans is a curse, in its own way. It puts pressure on Melvin to do the safest thing, to try to keep that fan momentum going. If Melvin didn't have any pressure to draw fans, he could do all kinds of risky things and see if they pay off. Of course, that isn't really in Melvin's nature, so I guess it's more of an Attanasio decision. Do you try and do the safe things and keep the stadium packed, try to build a winning team and see if you can luck into the playoffs. Or do you go high variance, with a greater chance of more success, but also a bigger chance of a losing team and losing fan interest?

 

It's fun to theorize about risky moves that could have huge payoffs. It might even have a greater chance of succeeding, but the greater possibility of failure is a big deterrent.

[JohnBriggs12]

That's one less of these theoretical "ace potential injury guys" that Melvin could go after and pretend they're 100% assured to be able to pitch most of the season.

 

No one is assuming Wolf is 100% assured to pitch most of the season, so talk about a straw man argument. You here many suggesting signing a pair of those kind of pitchers, since you could possibly pencil them in for 180+ innings.

 

As an added bonus, Wolf is one of the better hitting pitchers in baseball with a .181 career average.

 

NL P, 2009: .138/.179/.175/.354

Wolf, 07-09: .154/.208/.218/.426

 

A .071 OPS upgrade over 70ish AB? Better than the alternative, I guess.

I think his career numbers represent a larger sample and therefore are more relevant and his career OPS is .105 above average. In 04, he posted a .788 OPS. Of course he's not nearly that good either but not many pitchers ever do that at any time in their careers.

[The Truth]

I'm happy with this signing, and I believe in the concept of trying to "win within the Prince window"

 

And in my mind, I see this, for now as Wolf replacing Looper in our rotation, which is pretty significant...

 

I think there is a relatively good chance we can add Washburn as a January bargain signing too

[hawing]

Just saying, if you want to talk about this or other bf.net issues a bit closer to "real time", the chat room appears to be working. At least, I'm in.

[southpaw121505]

I'm on board with this. I'm hoping our 2nd pitcher is NOT Washburn or Davis. I wouldn't mind a Maine for Hart swap and then sign Mulder for insurance. I'd be curious as to what pitcher we could get for Hart if we add Salome? I have a feeling Correia is our 2nd guy, if that happens I'd prefer to let Bush go and still trade Hart for pitching. Gallardo, Wolf, Correia, Maine(?), Parra with Suppan in the pen and Narveson and Mulder as insurance would make me pretty happy.

[rluzinski]

Can you find one person who has said this is the only option? The opinion of those who like the deal seem to be that this is the best option.

 

You posted this about 15 minutes after I had edited my post to fix the misquote. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I think his career numbers represent a larger sample and therefore are more relevant and his career OPS is .105 above average.

 

It's a doubel edged sword. A larger sample is preferable but "true talent" is always changing. Projections generally use the last 3-5 years, weighting the oldest years 5-10%. What Wolf did in 2004 doesn't tell us much anymore.

[Funketown]

Can you find one person who has said this is the only option? The opinion of those who like the deal seem to be that this is the best option.

 

You posted this about 15 minutes after I had edited my post to fix the misquote. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I think his career numbers represent a larger sample and therefore are more relevant and his career OPS is .105 above average.

 

It's a doubel edged sword. A larger sample is preferable but "true talent" is always changing. Projections generally use the last 3-5 years, weighting the oldest years 5-10%. What Wolf did in 2004 doesn't tell us much anymore.

Especially with pitchers. Looking at just '07 to '09 is under 200 PA's, which is obviously a small sample, but how well a pitcher handles a bat certainly changes over the course of ten years. I wouldn't say that Wolf's ability at the plate makes this a steal for the Brewers, but it certainly adds some value to the deal, albeit minimal.

[JoeHova]

There is no room for another reliever so I don't know where that is coming from.

Yeah, I was clearly out of my mind to say that. Sometimes the voices in my head get a little outlandish. My bad.