Macha ready to run

[logan82]

Looks like Macha might be forced to let guys run a little more. Good news. With Weeks, Gomez and Escobar in the lineup, he would be making a serious mistake if the running game was handled like it was in 2009.

[The Ignitor]

From Haudicourt's blog: "Macha hates running into outs on the bases but insisted he will adapt to his differently-structured roster."

 

I love Macha's enthusiasm on the issue... If he keeps up that attitude, I think Doug might quickly lose patience with this guy this year and turn the reigns over to Randolph.

 

EDIT to add Haudicourt quote.

[dadofandrew]

That's because if you are not successful 70% of the time, running is a negative. Macha knows that. No one has a problem with SB's, it's the CS's that kill you. There's also no correlation at all between SB's and runs scored...but there is always a direct one between OBP, SLG, and OXS and runs scored.

[silversurferr]

For players like Gomez and Escobar, there is a relationship between maximization of speed potential (of which stolen bases can be a big part) and the amount of strikes they see. In other words, if the guy can run, and run effectively, pitchers will throw more strikes to avoid walking them.

[rluzinski]

Of course there's a correlation between a SB and runs scored. Of course it's going to look insignificant when compared to the correlation between runs and a stat that combines walks, singles, doubles, triples and HRs.

 

That said, I share your skepticism with regard to the wisdom of this new team philosophy. I agree, the negative value of a CS seriously cuts into the value of a stolen base attempt. A good running team needs to select their SB attempt situations carefully. Not only should the attempt have a reasonable chance for success, it should occur more often when the positive value of of a SB is higher and the negative value of a CS is lowest. For example, with a runner at 2B, 2 out and down by 2 runs, it's foolish to attempt a SB because the payoff is fairly insignificant. Tie game in the 9th with 2 out, speedy runner at first and a light hitting batter at the plate, that might be a great time to try.

 

If Macha is selectric in his attempts, the offense can get a slight boost. If not, the Brewers will abandon their new philosophy by June. I hope Macha is studying up.

[Invader3K]

I agreed with Melvin last season when he said he had told Macha they didn't want to just see the team "waiting around to hit a home run anymore." It seemed like opposing pitchers rarely had to worry about holding base runners. This team has at least four or five guys that could all be legitimate SB threats next year (Gomez, Escobar, Weeks, Braun, Hart), and there's no reason not to maximize their talents.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Most of the formulas I've ever seen say around 7 SB's create a run that otherwise would not have scored, and roughtly every 4 CS's cause you to lose a run that otherwise would have scored. Keeping in line with the 70% rule, you have to run a lot to create an amount of runs that will significantly impact your run potential. Granted, this doesn't have game specific context, but the premise holds true. If you're not succesful at bare minimum 70% of the time, there's no reason to do it at all.

[Ennder]

http://www.fangraphs.com/.../runnin-the-bases-part-1

 

The best team in baseball usually gets under 2 wins from base stealing, the worst gets under 2 losses from it. Last year the Brewers were break even.

[rluzinski]

That's just for base advancement.

[Ennder]

Oops didn't even notice they were taking SB out of it. The best vs worst is still usually in the 2 wins range though even with the SB added back in.

 

Oakland was #1 with 12.5 runs, Baltimore last with -21.9. Brewers were towards the bottom with -7.5 mostly because of stealing.

[silversurferr]

Speed is a viable offensive weapon. Do not need to constantly attempt steals to be effective. (Robin Yount was one of the greatest baserunners of his era, and he sparingly attempted to steal.) Coaching these guys to situationally advance (i.e., first to third) comes before teaching them to steal. Weeks is excellent. From what I saw at Minny, Gomez has been somewhat slow on the uptake; alot of boneheaded baserunning. Escobar? We'll soon see. Coaching will be very important for this year's young team. Macha is solid, but I really like having Randolph around to lead the charge.

[logan82]

The Brewers didn't seem like they were even trying to steal and when they did, they were running whenever. They looked bad on the bases last year. It seemed like he gave everybody equal opportunity to steal instead of just select guys. A good portion of those might have been hit and runs, which I hate. Our baserunning looked like a mess. I believe our baserunning in 2008 looked solid and with a mostly similar team in 2009 it looked like a mess. I know it doesn't add up to much in terms of runs, but it can be helpful in certain situations. Last year it seemed like we dropped off so bad, it wasn't a trick in our bag even with guys who otherwise are good at stealing bases. Maybe the time wasn't put in to studying the pitchers and their moves like in previous years. I know that was somewhat rambling and I probably could sum it up with saying "we just looked off on the bases in 2009."

[silversurferr]

Whatever. During the playoff run, Weeks was leading the league in some of those advance and score per time on base stats. (Have not looked it up, but Hart seems to be the opposite side of the equation. Blazing, but unutilized speed.) That is the key. Get on, run fast, score. If stealing helps, do it. If not, wait for Braun and Fielder to clear the bases.

[TooLiveBrew]

As long as the main guys stealing bases are Weeks & Escobar, while Hart & Braun keep their attempts reigned in (as they have over their careers), I think the Brewers will benefit. Really the only guys I ever want to see attempting a lot of steals are guys well over a 75% success rate, because outs on the basepaths are so costly.

 

Imo Weeks is an awesome base-stealer, & if anything I'd like to see him run a bit more. However, that's a tad complicated when he's typically on-base with Fielder & Braun hitting.

[logan82]

I agree that Escobar and Weeks should be the 2 with the most attempts. Escobar moreso than Weeks since I think he will be in the bottom of the order. It just seemed like we were off last year stealing. Hart and Cameron who are normally good stealing bases were not good. Sort of like they didn't have a good feel for it. You can go down the list and come up with some excuse for every guy, but I think it is a case where they were out of practice.

 

Gomez looks fast, but not good on the bases.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gomez's rates in the minors were overall very good. He's a guy that I think could improve a lot in terms of base-stealing with some more coaching, but not someone I want to see running with a constant green light just yet.

[logan82]

Gomez's rates in the minors were overall very good. He's a guy that I think could improve a lot in terms of base-stealing with some more coaching, but not someone I want to see running with a constant green light just yet.

I agree, I am skeptical he will get that coaching with us. I think he could. I believe Ed Sedar had a lot to do with our success in the past, I just get the feeling it wasn't emphasized in 2009. Maybe it will be and things will look better in 2010.

 

We were never really an elite SB team. We were at least competent in past years.

[danzig6767]

Speed is a viable offensive weapon. Do not need to constantly attempt steals to be effective. (Robin Yount was one of the greatest baserunners of his era, and he sparingly attempted to steal.) Coaching these guys to situationally advance (i.e., first to third) comes before teaching them to steal. Weeks is excellent. From what I saw at Minny, Gomez has been somewhat slow on the uptake; alot of boneheaded baserunning. Escobar? We'll soon see. Coaching will be very important for this year's young team. Macha is solid, but I really like having Randolph around to lead the charge.

Yea, i agree that sometimes SB's get to talked about when it comes to speed on the bases. Fast baserunners are also able to take extra bases via advancing further off hits than a slower runner would. That said, those fast baserunners need to be on base to use that speed effectively and that's a big concern for both Gomez and Escobar.

[dadofandrew]

Cameron was a very good baserunner as well, though Gomez is likely his equal or better, based on pure speed if nothing else.

[igor67]

I like the SB aesthetically, and I could see a certain amount of excitement with the current config being a really good running team. That said I think the base advancement is an important area to focus on. Here's to more scoring from first on Prince and Braun doubles. Getting to third on a 1 out single from Braun to score of a Prince Sac fly. Staying out of double plays to just give those power guys a chance

[GAME05]

i think of a Rickey Henderson or a Jackie Robinson who'd get on base and then get in the head of the starting pitcher, who then had to focus some on a throw to first or making sure his mechanics changed for a quicker motion. maybe most important is that the pitch selection has to change to more fastballs. i disagree with Macha's Moneyball philosophy for those reasons, which of course aren't quantifiable. i think having a Gomez and Weeks stealing bases ahead of Fielder will help Prince see more fastballs (being a fastball hitter and all).

[TooLiveBrew]

If I remember my Baseball Between the Numbers/Baseball Prospectus correctly, there is a tiny demonstrable effect that basestealers have on pitchers, but it's not enough to worry about when talking about player value.

[hawing]

Every time I see the thread title "Macha ready to run," I think for a split second that he's resigning his position.