Kevin Correia?

[And That]

Correia pitched 70+ more innings in 2009 than he ever had in the past. That's a huge, gigantic red flag for me. His 2009 improvements could indeed be for real, but that jump in innings scares me. That's why I wouldn't trade Green for him.

[trwi7]

I suppose if you completely ignore how well he pitched last season

How is what I'm doing any different than you ignoring his entire career previous to last year which was decidedly mediocre?

 

Look, I have no problem trading for Correia if it doesn't cost anything more than a very, very mediocre prospect. If it costs anything more than that, no big deal, he's not likely to be as good as last year.

[strawbossisevil]

His last 4 years:

Last season - 3.91 ERA

2008 - 6.05 ERA

2007 - 3.45 ERA

2006 - 3.49 ERA

 

One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong. That 2008 couldn't possibly be related to a season where he went through a lot of injury problems. Let's throw out that little fact and keep acting like he isn't a very solid pitcher/overvalue a mediocre prospect.

[PeaveyFury]

That 2008 couldn't possibly be related to a season where he went through a lot of injury problems that season. Let's throw out that little fact and keep acting like he isn't a very solid pitcher/overvalue a mediocre prospect.

 

Awfully condescending....

[trwi7]

His last 4 years:

Last season - 3.91 ERA

2008 - 6.05 ERA

2007 - 3.45 ERA

2006 - 3.49 ERA

 

One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong. That 2008 couldn't possibly be related to a season where he went through a lot of injury problems. Let's throw out that little fact and keep acting like he isn't a very solid pitcher/overvalue a mediocre prospect.

2006 was done entirely out of the bullpen, only 8 starts in 2007 and 19 in 2008. Ask Vargas about starting and relieving.

 

Once again, I have no problem pursuing him, it just shouldn't take anything more than a mediocre prospect to get him knowing that he'll be non-tendered and if it does take more than that, then he's not worth trading for imo.

[strawbossisevil]

You are dodging the point. Aside from the season where he dealt with injuries, he has been an above average pitcher. You can try to explain it away any way you like by discounting RP ERA. The fact remains when he's been healthy, he's put up an above average ERA, there is little to debate about that.

 

One other thing to consider is that becoming a RP is most advantageous to pitchers with a limited pitch repertoire (two pitch pitchers - Such as Vargas essentially is at this point). The fewer quality pitches a pitcher throws, the more advantageous it is for him to throw from the pen. This simply does not describe Correia as he has thrown three solid pitches throughout his career (a solid Sinking Fastball, Change, and Slider). That point made, his being in the pen should not be a huge advantage in comparison to his starting numbers. He has the number of pitches to succeed at both.

 

The only argument that has held any logical water in this whole discussion is the one that pointed to his dramatic increase in IP. That is concerning.

 

You are entitled to your opinion, just understand that I don't see the facts justifying said opinion. Your opinion leans heavily on stats produced during an injury plagued season (something you have yet to admit). When the rest of his body of work is very respectful.

 

If he were to pitch for Milwaukee next season, I think we could anticipate an ERA in the 4.00-4.25 range, which IMO is more valuable than anything Green will ever do for the Crew.

 

Here are some facts about Green: He had a wrist injury, which is well known to sap power long term for players. His OPS last season in 300 AA ABs was a dismal .686 with only 5 HR. There are no guarantees that his power will return, it's essentially a coinflip (cf Brad Nelson). Baseball Cube's scouting report rates his speed as: 10 on a 100 point scale. So his range is limited even for a 3b. On top of that he is third in the depth chart at 3b. Is keeping a guy like that justifiable if the alternative would be having two years of a solid middle of the rotation cost controlled starter with no long term commitment?

 

Once again, it seems a point I made earlier wasn't understood. I'm not saying the Brewers should start the bidding at Green. Start the bidding with as poor of a prospect as possible. But IF the bidding gets intense, Green shouldn't be untouchable. He's far from a sure thing, whereas Correia is much more of a sure thing. And let's face it, SP is a far bigger need for the Brewers than 3B and will be for the foreseeable future.

[804Sox]

His last 4 years:

Last season - 3.91 ERA

2008 - 6.05 ERA

2007 - 3.45 ERA

2006 - 3.49 ERA

 

One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong. That 2008 couldn't possibly be related to a season where he went through a lot of injury problems. Let's throw out that little fact and keep acting like he isn't a very solid pitcher/overvalue a mediocre prospect.

2006 was done entirely out of the bullpen, only 8 starts in 2007 and 19 in 2008. Ask Vargas about starting and relieving.

 

Once again, I have no problem pursuing him, it just shouldn't take anything more than a mediocre prospect to get him knowing that he'll be non-tendered and if it does take more than that, then he's not worth trading for imo.

After looking into his performance a bit more this afternoon, his career splits suggest that he's pitched BETTER as a starter - a split remaining consistent in most years - which surprised me. You can now count me as a believer. I think he's a legit #4/#5 starter in the NL. Might be worth giving up a guy like Green, but I stand by my earlier assertion that Green and Villanueva is too much considering he's likely to be non-tendered.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Correia would perform quite similarly to a healthy Dave Bush (& I'd gladly clone Bush, given the chance). Not a guy that sets the world on fire, but not exactly easy to find, either.

[Ennder]

I'd say a large part of his success has been a low HR/FB% which is probably a result of pitching in two huge pitcher parks in a weak hitting division. I don't think Correia would find a lot of success on the Brewers.

[strawbossisevil]

Road ERA last season: 4.18

 

Pitching in San Diego certainly helped, but not as much as you would lead others to believe.

 

As far as the division is concerned, LA was one of the better offenses in the NL last year, and Colorado wasn't a slouch either. He pitched FOR the team that was the weakest offensively in that division. Take out the Padre's poor offense, and the rest of the division isn't THAT bad. (San Francisco and Arizona both being slightly below average, but I'd counter that by pointing out that the Central has the Pirates and the Reds, both equally as bad.)

[TheCrew07]

Are you measuring the offense by runs scored or OPS, because by OPS San Fran was the absolute worst team in the NL... Runs scored they were in the middle if I remember correctly.

[strawbossisevil]

Runs scored, since we are talking about Earn Runs here, that would seem the logical stat to be looking at. I find the idea that he'd have a huge drop off from his road ERA unlikely.

 

Here are runs scored from last season for the NL West

 

Rockies: 804 (second highest Runs Scored in the NL behind Philly)

Dodgers: 780 (higher than any NL Central team except the Brewers)

Arizona: 720 (only 10 runs less than St. Louis who had the second highest RS in the Central behind the Brew Crew)

San Francisco: 657 (higher than both Pittsburgh and Houston)

 

Here are the runs scored from last season for the NL Central (non Brewers)

 

Cardinals: 730 (would have been good for third best in NL West)

Cubs: 707 (would have been fourth in NL West)

Reds: 673 (also would have been fourth)

Astros: 643 (would have been the worst in NL West - and they just signed no hit Pedro Feliz to play 3b)

Pirates: 636 (worst offense at scoring runs in the whole NL)

 

Which set of opponents would you rather face? Padres' division rivals averaged out to scoring 740.25 runs last season (or better than the Cardinals, the highest scoring opponent in the Brewer's division). Brewers' division rivals averaged out to scoring 677.8 runs last season. To put it another way, Padres' division rivals scored over a third of a run more per game than the Brewers' division rivals (.385 runs more). All this despite having the two best pitching staffs in the NL in the division (SF and LA).

 

Looking at all these facts, it would seem like a move into the NL Central and the Brewers would help him more than hurt him.

[Ennder]

Runs scored, since we are talking about Earn Runs here, that would seem the logical stat to be looking at

 

We are talking about how good the offenses are which is measured by OPS against and not just runs scored which are way more luck based. I'd also want to look at his past 4 years and not just 2009 since I'm talking about way more than 1 season worth of data. I'm not willing to do the research to see what the right answer is, my point was simply his peripherals do not match his production at all, I do not think you should expect him to keep an ERA under 4. If we sign him thinking we are getting another Dave BUsh then I'd be ok with it, if we are expecting him to repeat a sub 4 ERA I don't like it though. I think his career xFIP of 4.61 is more accurate than the ERA of 4.36.

[strawbossisevil]

For all of those who thought he would simply be non-tendered. This was posted on MLB trade rumors last night, "8:08 PM: MLB.com's Corey Brock (via Twitter) is saying that the Padres are, in fact, going to try and deal Correia before Saturday's non-tender deadline rather than just let the pitcher leave." http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/discussion-kevin-correia.html

 

So you are saying the fact that the average NL West (aside from the Padres) scored over a third of a run more than the NL Central (aside from the Brewers) is simply luck? That's weak reasoning. The point being, even though the NL West scored a ton more runs than the NL Central, Correia's ERA was solid there. But fine, since you aren't convinced by Runs Scored, let's look at OPS.

 

NL West:

1. Colorado .784 (best in the NL)

2. LA Dodgers .758 (better than any of the Brewers' division rivals)

3. Arizona .742 (better than any of the Brewers' division rivals except the Cardinals)

4. San Francisco .699 (worst in the NL)

 

NL Central:

1. St Louis .747 (would have barely been third best in the NL West)

2. Chicago .738 (would have been fourth best in NL West)

3. Houston .719 (ditto)

4. Cincinnati .712 (ditto)

5. Pittsburgh .705 (ditto)

 

Average OPS for NL West (not including San Diego): .746 (or only one hundreth of a point behind St. Louis, the top OPSing Brewers' division rival)

Average OPS for NL Central (not including Milwaukee): .724

 

No matter what metric you want to use, the NL West comes out on top as the better offensive division.

 

Finally, please stop making strawmen posts. I've read zero posts where people are saying that they expect him to have a sub-4 ERA next season. I certainly haven't been saying that. He'll likely be fall somewhere between a 4.00-4.25, which is extremely valuable. It also is a bit better than we should be expecting from Dave Bush (who I see as more of a 4.50-4.75 ERA talent). Correia is one step up from Bush.

 

As far as evaluating him over the past four years, he's been solid every season except the season he dealt with an oblique injury. To just blindly look at the numbers from the past four years while ignoring that fact, isn't a wise way to evaluate a player.

[Ennder]

He'll likely be fall somewhere between a 4.00-4.25, which is extremely valuable. It also is a bit better than we should be expecting from Dave Bush (who I see as more of a 4.50-4.75 ERA talent). Correia is one step up from Bush.

 

As far as evaluating him over the past four years, he's been solid every season except the season he dealt with an oblique injury. To just blindly look at the numbers from the past four years while ignoring that fact, isn't a wise way to evaluate a player.

 

We simply disagree on which numbers are important and apparently how much the parks help him, ERA is not a measuring stick for me. I think he is a 4.50 ERA true talent type pitcher just like Bush is. It is no strawman argument, I'm just saying if you expect a repeat of his previous good 3 years I think you will be disappointed.

[strawbossisevil]

Right, but who has said that? No one. We can agree then he's not likely going to put up a sub 4 ERA if he pitched for the Brewers (although I think it's more likely he would than Dave Bush).

 

Trouble with your numbers is, they include his injury plagued 2008 season and treat that equally with all the rest of his stats. If you include those stats and think that makes the stats predictive of what he'll do next season, then yes he profiles as a guy who will likely end up with an ERA around 4.50.

 

However, if you recognize that he was injured in '08 and account for that, he profiles to be a guy who projects to be somewhere between 4.00-4.25. It's all about whether you ignore the injury or not. Apparently you are just fine pretending like it doesn't matter and just letting the combined numbers dictate what to expect.

 

Normally I agree with you a lot, because I think statistics are the way to go because they are objective, BUT I don't think one can blindly look at the advanced statistics without also taking note of situations such as injuries which may have influenced a player's collective numbers in an extremely negative fashion (as Correia's injury plagued 2008 season most certainly did).

 

Even though it isn't a measuring stick for you, I thought I'd include his road ERAs from the years he was not playing injured - 09, 07, and 06:

09 - 4.19

07 - 3.84

06 - 3.79

 

Finally, would you admit that your assumption that going from the West to the Central would make things harder for Correia was erroneous and was based on perception rather than fact? After all, that was part of your argument that we could only expect a 4.50 ERA out of Correia. Or has that part of the argument been conveniently forgotten?

[Ennder]

However, if you recognize that he was injured in '08 and account for that,

 

And Bush has basically the same numbers except for one extremely bad injury year as well.

 

would you admit that your assumption that going from the West to the Central would make things harder for Correia was erroneous and was based on perception rather than fact?

 

No, because you only looked at 1 seasons data, a season that the NL Central didn't hit as well as normal, a season in which Bush as an example still had a higher OPS of opponents faced than Correia did. I still think historically over a 5 year sample that pitching in the NL West is easier than any other division in baseball.

[strawbossisevil]

No, because you only looked at 1 seasons data, a season that the NL Central didn't hit as well as normal.

So I'm supposed to go back and look back two years ago and that is supposed to be a better indication as to how the offenses are going to be in the Central next year? That makes no sense. Teams change quite a bit from year to year, to the point that looking past one year would be completely worthless (for example, note how much the pitching numbers for Milwaukee changed from 08 to 09, looking at 08 tells me very little about how the Brewers pitching will be in 2010). And as the division stands right now, unless a number of teams make huge trades/ FA signings. There is not a whole lot of indication that the offense in the NL Central should be marked for a huge upswing next season.

 

The Cubs aren't likely going to be adding any top flight offensive players, and their superstars are entering into their mid 30s. The Cardinals will be worse offensively next year unless they can sign someone like Holliday. The Astros big offensive signing this offseason was Pedro Feliz, they have no more money for further improvement. The Reds are unlikely to improve dramatically, and their biggest FA splash might be one of Counsell, Carrol, or Gomes. Finally, the Pirates only major FA signing to this point is Bobby Crosby. Do you see anything in any of these teams that is going dramatically change so that the division is going to OPS .020 points higher collectively?

 

The opposite could be said of the NL West, as we are hearing the Giants as being one of the front runners to sign either Bay or Holliday. The Rockies are young and good and that shouldn't change much. The Diamondbacks aren't changing at all offensively. Finally, the Dodgers are going to have a full year of Manny (rather than half a year), so I see them getting better, not worse.

 

What has been "normal" in the past is beside the point. What is important is how the teams performed last season, and what changes are taking place to last year's ball clubs and how that will likely influence their offense capabilities for next season. After last season the Central had some catching up to do, and I see no way they'll be catching the West next season. If you remove Milwaukee and San Diego from the equation, I can't see any way that a non-biased person would call the Central the stronger offensive division at this point. I think you are grasping at straws.

[Hate those Rodents]

What type of offer would you make for the guy? I was thinking maybe Lorenzo Cain, just to hopefully ensure we get KC.

[Ennder]

I mean Holliday is as likely to land in STL as SF next year and one year of data is never going to be reliable ever. A team can have the same exact offense 2 seasons in a row and get extremely varied results from them. We are trying to look at the true talent of these players so what their opposition is going to be like in 2010 has absolutely nothing to do with the question, the type of competition they faced 3 years ago to achieve the stats they did means a whole heck of a lot more.

 

Taking this nitpick of yours completely out of the equation and just looking at xFIP shows that Correia is a 4.50 ERA type over his career with maybe a slight chance at improvement if he can maintain his GB% from last year. Bush and Correia actually have identical 5.04 tRA in their career and their xFIP are almost identical as well with Bush having a slight advantage. They are pretty comperable pitchers.

[strawbossisevil]

Once again that xFIP includes his horrible numbers from 2008 which were seriously impacted by his oblique injury. So if it shows him at 4.50 with that included, his true talent is likely 20-30 points better (at least). When an injury effects one's numbers to such a large extent, one has to factor that in to the projections.

[TooLiveBrew]

Bush and Correia actually have identical 5.04 tRA in their career and their xFIP are almost identical as well with Bush having a slight advantage. They are pretty comperable pitchers.

 

I'd love to add another Dave Bush to our pitching staff, especially if he replaces Suppan.

[BREWERPRIDE]

If they dont make this move it would be stupid, he is a decent young arm for 2 million at the most.

[logan82]

Probably not going to happen. Looks like he is signing with the Padres. Link

[nate82]

Probably not going to happen. Looks like he is signing with the Padres. Link

Melvin did confirm that he spoke with Sand Diego about Correia but never got a response back from the Padres. I'm guessing that this signing is probably the reason why the Padres didn't respond back.