CoCo Crisp

[strawbossisevil]

I have heard a lot on this site about bringing in a Juan Pierre or Dave Roberts. Yet, Dave Roberts is older and not likely to improve, and Pierre couldn't slug his way off of a postage stamp.

 

Now I may recieve a lot of disapproval for even suggesting this, but what about CoCo Crisp in a trade. Trading for Crisp would be the definition of buying low, as he spent much of last season injured and his numbers reflect it.

 

Yet, in Crisp you get a guy who in two out of the last three years has had a OPS right around the .800 (this year it was just over .700), and two out of the last three years he's had homerun totals in the mid-teens. Not to mention that last season he stole 22 bases while only getting caught 4 times.

 

After his poor season, the Sox may be willing to give him up for next to nothing, possibly even paying part of his 15 million salary due to him over the next three years.

[brettac1]

I would rather have him than Pierre, for sure. He had an injury-plagued year in Boston, but he was excellent in Cleveland. They signed him to what I thought at the time was an excellent-priced deal. If he rebounds, he will be worth that money.

[trwi7]

I'd take a flyer on him, his value is low and as brett said he had a couple of very good years in Cleveland.

 

He signed through '09 with a team option for 2010.

 

He would make $14 million through 2009 and $8 million in 2010 if his option is picked up.

[molitor fan]

Jenkins for Crisp huh? Could be interesting

[trwi7]

We should get Coco Crisp and Milton Bradley. Board games and cereal night every Saturday home game.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I wonder if Cleveland ever capitalized on a possible marketing ploy for Crisp and Bradley.

 

And yes I know it's spelled Cocoa Krispies so you don't need to correct me.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[splitterpfj]

I could imagine Crisp bouncing back, he got hurt in Boston and he was "replacing Johnny Damon."

[pogokat]

I'd love to have Coco in center...considering the other options, he'd be great..

 

Going into his age 27 year, i think he'll go back to being very good..

 

whats the market like for him??? it's gotta be more than jenkins...

[colbyjack]

I really thought Crisp would help the Boston fans forget about Damon. That obviously didn't happen, but his stats were showing a nice upward progression while in Cleveland.

 

That said, I'm pretty skeptical of him. His defensive numbers playing CF aren't all that great, as Juan Pierre might be a better option than Crisp.

[TooLiveBrew]

Would we be willing to part with Jenks and Davis for Crisp and, say, a bullpen arm? Because I sure would. I agree with taking Crisp over Pierre, although I spoke up in favor of Pierre on that thread. I like that element both men bring -- speed.

 

However, I don't think that, offensively, they are any different. True, last year, Crisp's SB% was better (84% to 74%), but Pierre stole a helluva lot more bases. Let's not forget that one year does not define a player. Career SB %s:

 

Crisp - 69

Pierre - 73

 

Additionally, their career OBPs

 

Crisp - .329

Pierre - .350

 

Weeks and Hart are not going to be enough speed to make that an identifiable element of our attack. By adding speed/Crisp, I think we have enough to boast speed as a primary element of the 2007 Crew. It seems the primary difference btw the two players is arm strength. Maybe Crisp is the better bargain, financially, too.

[mothershipconnection]

It'd be awesome to have two guys named Coco on one team, I'll tell you that much. After a down year, his value may be low, but his contract is still palatable. How about Gabe Gross and a prospect (Sarfate or someone else for their bullpen perhaps)?

[TooLiveBrew]

p.s. - Pierre's career runs scored is also astonishingly better than Crisp's

 

Crisp - 82 runs scored / "full" season (minimum 139 games)

 

Pierre - 97 runs / full season

 

Additionally, Crisp has only played two "full" seasons - 2004 & 2005, 139 & 145 games, respectively

 

Pierre has gone:

 

2001 - 156 gms

2002 - 152

2003 - 162

2004 - 162

2005 - 162

2006 - 162

 

I think the ability to consistently score runs defines whether or not a player is effective at the top of the lineup. I don't remember who mentioned this on Brewerfan, but SBs should be considered as extra points to put toward Slug. %. I think that's a creative and effective notion. Doing that most likely compensates for any difference in slug % favoring Crisp.

[mothershipconnection]

I think the ability to consistently score runs defines whether or not a player is effective at the top of the lineup.

Or it defines how good their team was and how many PA they got - as good players on junk teams score fewer runs than they would on top offense. Both players have actually had the benefit of hitting ahead of some pretty good hitters, though Crisp played on some rebuilding teams that only had one good hitter most years (Thome, Bradley, Hafner, Hafner & Peralta)

 

Runs created is a better indicator than runs scored, and Crisp has the edge there over their careers.

 

I don't remember who mentioned this on Brewerfan, but SBs should be considered as extra points to put toward Slug. %.

Perhaps SB's above and beyond the percentage where they benefit the team could be put in such a formula. You wouldn't want to give props to a guy who stole 20 in 40 attempts, though, because he hurts his team.

[TooLiveBrew]

Sure thing mother, what about net SBs counting toward Slug. %? We could call it Slug%+. Sabermetrics, eat ya heart out

 

Good points, by the way, as usual. Pierre perhaps as the #2 hitter? Someone else made that point, and I think there's value to it. Bat control is obviously not a problem for Pierre, and he's not a big risk to hit into a DP.

 

His arm in the field is a major drawback, but Carlos Lee's defense was a liability, too. Are power hitters exempt from such scrutiny? Pierre's ability to play every day, literally, is invaluable, as we experienced with Lee.

[endaround]

Pierre is a number 8 hitter on a bad team.

[TooLiveBrew]

That's competely unfair, come on. I understand if you want to mock the notion of him hitting leadoff, but that comment is just unrealistic. Say what you like, but his track record is one of durability and production. I'd say IMO, but I think that it's a fact. He was a crucial part of the Marlins' 2003 WS title, at the leadoff spot. I don't suggest he has maintained that success, but "8th hitter on a bad team" is just spiteful, not realistic

[molitor fan]

Endaround is an agenda-driven machine, accuracies be darned

[TooLiveBrew]

Easy boys.... let's play nice

[strawbossisevil]

The main difference between Crisp and Pierre is that Crisp actually has some power. I think a Crisp for Davis swap would be quite fair.

 

Crisp has the benefit of being young and entering his prime. He is a far more complete player than Pierre. He's no Crawford, but he's no Pierre/Roberts either.

 

OPS wise, Crisp has far more potential than Pierre does. Also perhaps he's become a smarter baserunner, thus the better SB% (so judging him on his numbers from early in his career might not be fair).

[aracko]

You guys will not find any Pierre love around here. I have tried it.

 

I have been pursuaded to think that Pierre might not be the best fit for the Brewers. But its not because of his bat, or his baserunning skills. I (personally) think they can help the Brewers out a ton. The masses here have me worried about his defensive skills. He has a weak and inaccurate arm.

 

 

Has anyone ever heard anything about Pierres leadership qualities?

[mothershipconnection]

His arm in the field is a major drawback, but Carlos Lee's defense was a liability, too. Are power hitters exempt from such scrutiny?

Yes and no. Guys who hit a ton are not exempt, in that people will surely point out "he sucks on D". However, there's certainly a balance between hitting and defense, and enough of one can make up for shortcomings at another, to an extent at least. Ozzie Smith would have been an "OK" SS if he only played league average defense. Manny Ramirez, meanwhile, can get by with being a butcher at times in the field because he swings a monster bat.

[splitterpfj]

To answer your question, toolivebrew, I wouldn't trade Davis unless we added another starting pitcher first. I also don't think the Red Sox will be looking to add a starting pitcher through trade, they should have a rotation of Schilling, Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Wakefield and Beckett.

 

I would make a deal like the one you suggest, if there is a team we match up with, and if we add a replacement for Davis in the rotation.

[TooLiveBrew]

I feel confident that between Jenks, Mench, and Clark, Doug E. Doug can come up with a 4th/5th starter. Villanueva appears capable of holding down a spot for 2007, and Gallardo, by all accounts, is going to become a regular by the middle of said season. Adding an Ohka-type arm (obviously not the departed Tomo) should be just what the doctor ordered.

 

I have no idea whether or not the BoSux would be interested in that trade. But it looks fair and swing-able to me, and would help both sides. Now, if the Boston rotation is full, certainly the deal doesn't necessarily help them.

[Ennder]

Mediocre fielding, weak armed, no power hitting CF's who don't get on base much and get caught stealing too much just don't excite me, sorry. Not to mention the fact that Pierre's numbers were inflated by playing in two very good average parks in Col and Fla so I expect last year to be what you expect out of him which is just bleh. He's a number 7 or 8 hitter on most teams, maybe a 9th hitter in the AL to have that 'leadoff hitter' at the bottom of the order.

[DuWayne Steurer]

You shouldn't alter SLG% or anything else to account for stolen bases. A single and a stolen base is not the same as a double.

 

A double advances runners 2, and sometimes 3 bases. A single advances them one, and sometimes 2.

 

 

And if you're going to count a single and a stolen base as doubles, you absolutely must take the caught stealing's off of the OBP. And the batting average. And the SLG%. Because every out on the basepaths he makes would take away from each of those categories, if that's how you want to count it.

 

Leaving Pierre's 2006 line looking like this......

 

.263/.303/.422

 

That's still a mighty ugly line.

 

So the 20 times he got caught stealing essentially lowers his practical OBP to .303.

 

 

Sabremetrically speaking, stolen bases are a grossly overrated stat.

 

Over the years, the best formulas show that every 7 stolen bases creates one run that *otherwise would not have score*. Not every stolen base results in the runner scoring, and not every stolen base results in a run that wouldn't have come in anyways.

 

Conversely, every 4 times you are caught stealing, you cost your team one run that otherwise would have scored.

 

Meaning that Pierre's 58 steals created approximately 8.5 runs, and his 20 caught cost his team 5 runs, for a whopping net gain of 3.5 runs. Playing the sabre game, that's less than half a win for an entire season.

 

And many have argued that a base stealer on base is detrimental to the batter. That's neither here nor there, as it's tough to argue one way or the other. But what's not tough to argue is the value of a base stealer. Historically speaking, teams that steal a lot don't score more runs than teams that don't, unless they just don't ever get caught stealing.

 

Yes, situationally speaking it's nice to have a guy that can steal a base in a tight game. But it's not so nice that it can be used to justify a leadoff guy who carries a sub .330 OBP. I'd rather have a guy like Brady Clark leading off (and never stealing) than a guy like Juan Pierre, and that's really not saying much.

[aracko]

When discussing Pierre on this board, nobody EVER takes into account his triples production which also happens to be the most exciting play in baseball.