No Arby for any of Brewers' FAs

[igor67]

I still think he should have offered it to Cameron with the idea in the back of his mind that he can turn around and drop Hart, so the salaries become much closer and we keep the superior player in the OF.

[endaround]

Lopez isn't an arbitration controlled player, he's a FA arbitration case. He could have easily gotten $8m in arbitration and for a player who's quit on teams before hard to say if he'll get something like that in FA. Those who wanted to trade him seem to forget the Brewers got him for nothing despite him playing well for the DBacks.

[jackalope02ca]

I'm beginning to worry it's not all about winning anymore but more about survival in the new economy. I think that's the reality of it now. I don't anticipate any big pitcher signings or trades either going forward into spring training.

 

In the end that might be a smart move as well as I think certain teams will be giving players away by mid year if revenues don't turn around. If you have the payroll flexibility you can probably get a pretty good player for next to nothing. I think we'll see trades this year that no one ever would have imagined and as long as the Brewers aren't the ones giving the player away life won't be so bad.

[yount19.u]

It's not like it was a 100% certainly the Brewers would get a sandwich pick here. The chances Lopez would not accept arbitration and go elsewhere were probably better than staying a Brewer, but why would Melvin role the dice on that? He's been clear about what this team needs to do this off season so why risk not being able to sign a starter just to get a sandwich pick? Weeks is the starter on this team and Lopez is not worth whatever he would get in arbitration as a back up and potential fill in if Weeks gets hurt. The team now knows exactly who much it has to spend on pitching and can still budget for a more cost effective back up plan to Weeks if they feel the need. Lopez could still be signed at a discount if the market does not play out in his favor.

[JJHardy7]

I guess I can somewhat understand the logic of not offering arbitration...I just don't think the Brewers should've ever traded for Lopez if they knew they weren't going to offer him arbitration.

[Fatter than Joey]

The chances Lopez would not accept arbitration and go elsewhere were probably better than staying a Brewer

 

I think the only certainty is that Lopez would do better in Arby than on the FA market (for one year).

 

I just don't think the Brewers should've ever traded for Lopez if they knew they weren't going to offer him arbitration.

 

With Weeks hurt and JJ tanking, the Brewers needed someone to play 2b -- sort of like when we acquired Graffy or Bell. We didn't give up much to get Lopez, and he certainly produced -- however, I don't think we'd get much if anything for him in trade next season.

 

As I looked through all of the Arby offerings -- it seems like the default setting was "decline". Brian Shouse got offered Arbys though, I thought that was interesting.

[hawing]

I'm beginning to worry it's not all about winning anymore but more about survival in the new economy.

It makes me wonder how dismal the Brewers' economic projections are.

[Invader3K]

I don't see how they could really be that bad. Everyone was freaking out last year, but they signed that big deal with Potawotamie, inked a new TV contract (which we still haven't heard any figures on), and still drew over 3 million fans. It seems like it would be rather disingenuous to cry poor at this point. I know the economy still isn't great, but it's supposedly better than it was last off-season. I'm not saying they necessarily have the resources to increase payroll, but it should be about where it was at the start of last season.

[adambr2]

Lopez isn't an arbitration controlled player, he's a FA arbitration case. He could have easily gotten $8m in arbitration and for a player who's quit on teams before hard to say if he'll get something like that in FA. Those who wanted to trade him seem to forget the Brewers got him for nothing despite him playing well for the DBacks.

Lopez has never earned more than $4.9M in a season and earned $3.5M last season. He's essentially a poor man's Orlando Hudson, and Hudson has never earned more than $6.2M. I think saying he EASILYgets $8M in arby is quite a stretch. Frankly I couldn't see more than $6M.

[JohnBriggs12]

Here's what bothers me. Isn't Melvin the same guy that in 2006 signed Corey Koskie when he already had Bill Hall coming off a good year in 2005 to play 3B? Oh, I forgot, Koskie was from Canada. Never mind.

 

Would anyone be bothered if they had to find a place to play a .300 hitter with on base skills? Since when is having too many good players a bad thing? They couldn't trade Weeks or Lopez later? Would they really miss Dave Bush's 6+ ERA if they had to non-tender him to fit Lopez into the budget?

 

This confirms what I've thought of Melvin for some time. He's okay when he focuses on one move at a time. But he can't walk and chew gum at the same time. He doesn't think 2 or 3 moves ahead.

[Ennder]

Would they really miss Dave Bush's 6+ ERA if they had to non-tender him to fit Lopez into the budget?

 

Yes we would have. Bush is as good as the majority of the FA we are likely to find for SP.

 

We still should have offered to Lopez though, even if he accepts and we get stuck with him it would be nice to have the depth. Offer him arbitration, tell him Weeks is still the starter if healthy, there is almost no chance he accepts it.

[Invader3K]

I'm not sure why all the "non-tender Bush" talk has come up. He was pretty good last year until he got hurt. You really can't look at his ERA last season without considering the other factors. He's never pitched a full season that poorly. Clearly that line drive off his arm affected him. I'd still take him over Suppan or Looper at this point.

[BrewCrewRising]

.......

 

This confirms what I've thought of Melvin for some time. He's okay when he focuses on one move at a time. But he can't walk and chew gum at the same time. He doesn't think 2 or 3 moves ahead.

I agree with this completely. I'm starting to think that Melvin is the Yost of GM's: He was good to get young club going and has some nice opening moves in that regard, but doesn't really have an end game to put the pieces in place.

 

Yes, offering Lopez arby would have been a risk, but I don't think a monumental one. Worst case scenario is that he accepts and we pay him about 5-6M a year. I think we could have traded him, at least by the deadline. That way the Crew could have gotten two more young promising farmhands (assuming one from trade, and one from draft.)

 

But if Melvin wasn't going to do that, what was the point of that trade? When they traded for Lopez the need was clearly for pitching. Lopez's D wasn't going to magically improve the pitching. In this sense Melvin wasn't even thinking a move ahead.

[JJHardy7]

With Weeks hurt and JJ tanking, the Brewers needed someone to play 2b -- sort of like when we acquired Graffy or Bell. We didn't give up much to get Lopez, and he certainly produced -- however, I don't think we'd get much if anything for him in trade next season.

 

I just think there were options in AAA. Probably not as good as Lopez, but I would've liked to see more of a long-term plan. In other words, DM could've decided to trade the minor leaguers involved, but in the back of his mind know the Brewers would either have Lopez next year or have a high draft pick. It's not the end of the world by any means, but I do wonder what the 'plan' was at the time of the trade.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I think the decision to not offer Lopez arbitration is ridiculous. At 5 mil for one year he wouldnt have exactly killed our budget and odds are he will find at least a 2 yr deal. This decision may mean that the budget will be real tight do to the economy. Look around baseball and you will see very few guys offered arbitration. I think we are in for a long offseason because I dont see us aquiring the top of the rotation SP we need and the offense looks much weaker than last season as well.

 

I expect this offseason in baseball to be like last years where only the top guys get big money and the rest are just happy to get one year deals. Looks like most of baseball is in belt tightening mode and the Brewers sure look like they are headed in that direction.

[Tbadder]

I'm now an EX-Melvin supporter. This is ridiculous. The lifeblood of this organization is draft choices and he turns down a slam dunk sandwich pick. If he signs washed up pitchers like Davis, Washburn, or Wolf for big money then it's katy-bar-the-door. It's time to step down Doug. Please go away.

[joepepsi]

They don't need Lopez. McGehee, Iribarren, and maybe Counsell provide backup for Weeks. Lopez' batting avg and obp were almost 60 points higher than his career numbers. No way he sustains that going forward. He would almost certainly make more in arbitration than he will make on the open market. Same with Cameron.

 

I doubt anyone offers Cameron $12 million for next year, but through arbitration, which doesn't really consider a player's age, he would make that.

 

I don't have a problem with declining arbitration on any of these players.

[dlk9s]

I just don't think the Brewers should've ever traded for Lopez if they knew they weren't going to offer him arbitration.

The Brewers were only 3 games back in the NL Central and 3.5 game back in the Wild Card race when they traded for Lopez. Methinks they traded for him to try to bolster the lineup in order to make the playoffs.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'm not sure why all the "non-tender Bush" talk has come up... I'd still take him over Suppan or Looper at this point.

 

Bush is on a lot of "non-tender lists". I am sure the Brewers have considered it. The difference between Bush and Suppan, is that non-tendering Bush saves money, while we are paying Suppan one way or the other.

 

I'm starting to think that Melvin is the Yost of GM's

 

I don't think that this is fair to DM. I don't think Yost was ever a good manager. I do think DM did some very good things for the Brewers (and Texas), to get them out of the cellar.

 

When they traded for Lopez the need was clearly for pitching. Lopez's D wasn't going to magically improve the pitching. In this sense Melvin wasn't even thinking a move ahead.

 

What we gave up for Lopez, would have not gotten us pitching.

[Invader3K]

And we had a need for a leadoff hitter at the time. Melvin didn't give up anything valuable to get him either.

 

Apparently Melvin is meeting with Mark Attanasio today in LA to "get the financial ducks in a row" to determine what they'll be offering to FA starting pitchers. These next few weeks are going to determine a lot about the future of the Brewers and whether or not Melvin is GM after this season, I think.

[brewmann04]

Well i guess if they are going to go hard at a Fa pitcher it would be ok ,but Beyond Lackey there not too much out there to spend big money on and give them a long term deal also.I also like Weeks Potential but until he proves he can stay healthy for a full season it was foolish for Melvin not to Offer him Arby.They at the very least would have had a solid backup in case Weeks can't go and also we could have possible used Lopez as trade bait it Weeks stayed healthy.

[Invader3K]

The difference between Bush and Suppan, is that non-tendering Bush saves money, while we are paying Suppan one way or the other.

 

This is a valid point, FtJ...but if he only uses the extra money to sign a Davis/Washburn type, no doubt for a higher salary, I'm not sure how sensible the "upgrade" is.

[endaround]

Lopez's past salaries have no bearing on FA arbitration cases. Its all about comparables. Lopez put up a season comparable to Brian Roberts who just signed for $10m per last offseason. And going to arby versus Boras for a guy who you have penciled in as a backup?

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't think any of these moves that we have made in the off-season are getting us closer to decent pitching -- I just think we are shedding payroll.

[Invader3K]

Well, I would think the fact that he is a Boras client (not sure why that has been so overlooked, so thanks for bringing it up endaround) would point to him almost certainly declining arbitration, not accepting it.