2010 Top Prospect Fan Poll - Your Results Are Up!

[clancyphile]

Gamel

Escobar

Lucroy

Arnett

Braddock

[804Sox]

Gamel

Escobar

Lucroy

Arnett

Braddock

no Lawrie?

[Mass Haas]

Ta-da!

 

Thanks, Patrick (colbyjack) for the compilation and the commentary.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's good to see that people haven't really soured on Salome. I guess I expected Arnett to be higher, but by this time next year I'd be willing to bet he's #1 on this list.

 

I also think Kentrail Davis has a very good chance to rocket up this list after 2010.

[ILuvDaBush]

I see only myself and John Sickels have Brett Lawrie atop our rankings. Maybe I'm in the minority but I would take Ryan Braun over Carlos Gomez.

 

But seriously, as always, love the list. Always appreciate seeing what my fellow brethren think of our young hackers and hurlers.

[TheCrew07]

Colby I just wanted to thank you for taking the time to compile the lists every year, it's one of my favorite features of the site.

[clancyphile]

I see only myself and John Sickels have Brett Lawrie atop our rankings. Maybe I'm in the minority but I would take Ryan Braun over Carlos Gomez.

 

But seriously, as always, love the list. Always appreciate seeing what my fellow brethren think of our young hackers and hurlers.

I had Lawrie as #2 on mine, only because Gamel was in AAA. Both are impressive bats. Finding where they will play is the hard part.

[ILuvDaBush]

Here's a question. Considering these results, who would everyone say is the most overrated and most underrated?

 

Overrated: Logan Schafer - Yes, he was the Brewers' Minor League Hitter of the Year, but at present, he profiles as a fringe starting OF. I think he's definitely going to sip a cup or two of coffee but I'm not convinced he'll be a permanent mainstay and that's what I expect from top-10 prospects (especially those rated higher than Kentrail Davis)

 

Underrated: Brooks Hall - Young, raw, and massive with a matching fastball. But since he wasn't even in the top 20, I will go with.....

 

JEREMY JEFFRESS - Young, raw, and diminutive with an over-powering fastball that is among the best in the minors. Even with questionable maturity, he should still be considered one of our top-5 pitching prospects.

[filthyfrog]

The problem with Jeffress is that there's a very real chance that he'll be banned for life and you have to take that into account when evaluating him, just like you have to take the injury histories of Rogers and Braddock into account. But unlike Rogers and Braddock, Jeffress didn't pitch well this past year.

 

That said, I think you could make a good case that Jeffress should be ahead of Rogers. Braddock trumps them both, though, because he's performed when on the field.

[804Sox]

Overrated: Mark Rogers - love the K-rate, but his BB rate is abysmal. Also, with only about 70 innings last year as a 23yro in A+ (a little old for the level, but understandable coming off injury), it's going to be tough for him to build his inning workload up enough over the next few years to be a starter. He could be a solid reliever, but I wouldn't rate him above pitchers like Scarpetta and Peralta.

 

Underrated: Cody Scarpetta and Wily Peralta - If Rivas and Odorizzi are at 9/10, I don't see how these two come in 6 spots lower. I understand the questions regarding Perlata's likelihood to stick as a starter, but with their upside, these 2 belong at the back end of the top 10, or in the 10-15 range. (obviously not a huge move)

[RobertR]

I didn't get around to voting this year, but Lawrie would have gotten another first place vote if I had. I think the guy has star hitter potential and nothing I saw last year dissuaded me from that stance.

 

I'd also have gone higher than the concensus on Jeffress and Cain. Yeah, there's a high bust potential with Jeffress, but if he makes it it's likely to be as much more than a fringe contributor. With Cain, I think perhaps a little too much emphasis has been put on an injury marred 2009. Yeah, he deserves to take a hit, but behind Mark Rogers?

 

Robert

[clancyphile]

Overrated: Alcides Escobar - Good field, but he needs to hit .300 to avoid becoming another Royce Clayton. His OBP skills in pro ball have NOT impressed me, and there is not much power. He's good, but I see a Royce Clayton, not a superstar. I suspect that a year from now, there will be some who will wish for JJ Hardy at short.

 

Underrated: Taylor Green - He was hurt, but he still drew a lot of walks. He's also a slick-fielding 3B. I think Gamel and Braun are the corner OFs of the future for the Crew. Green's a left-handed Cirillo, and probably someone whose skills the Brewers need to set the table for Braun, Fielder, Gamel, Lawrie, and other power hitters.

[LouisEly]

Overrated: Logan Schafer - Yes, he was the Brewers' Minor League Hitter of the Year, but at present, he profiles as a fringe starting OF.

 

First, a correction: he was not the Minor League Hitter of the Year, it's Minor League Player of the Year. And no, he doesn't profile as a fringe starting OF - he plays CF, which does not have the power expectations of the corner OF positions and where defense is more valuable. Second, he spent the season in Brevard which is notorious for suppressing hitters numbers; for reference, Schafer posted a .815 OPS there this year, Taylor Green posted a .825 OPS there, and Mat Gamel posted a .850 OPS. It was also better than the OPS that Cain posted at Brevard at the same age. Third, he is a very good defensive CF - he posted 14 assists last year, which from CF (13 from CF, 1 from LF) is very impressive, with only one error. This last year Schafer was one of if not the last player sent back to minor league camp (among players not on the 40-man) and accompanied the team to LA for their two exhibition games there and was the first substitution off the bench in Game 1.

 

I think the Brewers think very highly of Schafer, and he is my pick for underrated.

 

Overrated? Well... Escobar is a fantastic defensive SS and he can hit for average, however his walk rate at AAA was lower than Brendan Katin. He's very good, but if he is going to be even average offensively for a SS he will either need to develop a lot more power or walk a lot more. I sure want Odorizzi to succeed, but so far the ranking is based purely on potential.

[TooLiveBrew]

Third, he is a very good defensive CF - he posted 14 assists last year, which from CF (13 from CF, 1 from LF) is very impressive, with only one error.

 

As long as this matches up with scouting reports & more advanced defensive statistics, ok... but these alone do not tell you anything about an OF's defensive ability.

[And That]

Schafer is by most accounts a solid to above average defender in center field, with a solid arm. His defense is a lot like his offense... nothing he does blows you away, but he does a lot of things well.

 

2010 will be a big year for him. My biggest question about Schafer is, will he start taking more walks so he can become a top of the order guy? His AB:BB has regularly been below the desired 10:1 ratio. That needs to improve without sacrificing a lot of power.

[CheezWizHed]

Ok, I'm going to start a fire storm here...

 

Overrated: Lawrie

I listen to people talk about him in the same breath as Braun/Uggla/Kent and I get excited about his chances. But personally, I don't see it. I'm the farthest thing from a BB expert, unless its a 20-20-hindsight-armchair-GM http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I did see Lawrie play once (yeah, I know once) at a Rattlers game and he really hit the ball hard. But otherwise, he looked like he was going through the motions. Defense was atrocious. Kind of a blah attitude. Could have been an off day. I've also speculated that he wanted to be higher in the system and was somewhat demotivated at A-ball.

 

But nothing else I've seen really contradicts that either. He is young for his level (I actually just ignore the AA stats), but still didn't put up anything that was WOW. Not bad, but not great either. He is ok in power, decent in OBP, average in average and steal %.

 

Right now, I think Weeks is a more apt comparison. Weeks came with big hype and has turned out to be an average MLB 2B with defense that improved to average. So while I was lazy (and on vacation) and didn't enter my top 20, I'd list Lawrie in the top 10, but not the top 5... I sincerely hope I'm wrong; I'm just not seeing the positives that others see. (I'll also admit that since I don't get to see many games live, I rely more on stats. Not that I'm a money-ball guy, but results are important).

 

Ok, I put on my flak jacket... Let the bludgeoning commence http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

Second, he spent the season in Brevard which is notorious for suppressing hitters numbers; for reference, Schafer posted a .815 OPS there this year, Taylor Green posted a .825 OPS there, and Mat Gamel posted a .850 OPS. It was also better than the OPS that Cain posted at Brevard at the same age.

 

Schafer was the one player whose eventual ranking surprised me. I don't mean to say that he's overrated, but I do need to be more convinced to see what he can do at AA, and hopefully AAA, this coming season.

 

Keep in mind that Gamel and Green both enjoyed huge seasons at Brevard County a couple of years younger than Schafer.

 

Overrated? Well... Escobar is a fantastic defensive SS and he can hit for average, however his walk rate at AAA was lower than Brendan Katin. He's very good, but if he is going to be even average offensively for a SS he will either need to develop a lot more power or walk a lot more.

 

I don't mean to pick on you Louis, as I certainly have shared these thoughts about Escobar in the past. However, Escobar just keeps getting better and better as he moves up. That usually is a very good sign of very good things to come, as you rarely see good to great players regress as they move up. Power remains a concern, as do the walks, but again, he keeps getting better in those areas while staying strong in the speed/defense department. Talent can overcome any obstacle as long as the player shows the acumen to make the proper adjustments, which of course is what the game is all about.

 

I think Jeremy Jeffress is the most underrated, although he deserves to be underrated. Clearly people wouldn't have placed him where they did if it weren't for the suspensions.

 

The most truly underrated, even on my own list, are both Scarpetta and Peralta. Peralta may have the best arm in the system, and Scarpetta has to be the most well known Brewers prospect not ranked in the top 10. You can't hold the fact that Peralta may wind up in the bullpen against him, as that clearly didn't stop people from ranking Braddock where they did. I'll throw in Nick Bucci into the underrated category as well, although I don't fault people too much for wanting to wait until he proves himself more at a full-season level this coming year.

[LouisEly]

Keep in mind that Gamel and Green both enjoyed huge seasons at Brevard County a couple of years younger than Schafer.

 

It was only a one-year difference - Gamel and Green were 21, Schafer was 22. Not a significant difference.

[filthyfrog]

My biggest question about Schafer is, will he start taking more walks so he can become a top of the order guy? His AB:BB has regularly been below the desired 10:1 ratio. That needs to improve without sacrificing a lot of power.

I think Schafer has already made a pretty nice adjustment. He was terrible at walking in '08 (13 BB in 207 AB) and he continued that trend to start '09 (7 BB in 148 AB in April and May). When he came back to Brevard after the short stint in Huntsville in June, he made an immediate adjustment (36 BB in 330 AB the rest of the year). I really think the week in AA was a wakeup call for him. Either that or Reid Nichols told him to walk or die. We'll have to see if it holds up over a full season at AA, but doubling your walk rate is a pretty dramatic change.

 

Now if only he could answer the questions about his power in the same fashion...

[clancyphile]

Overrated? Well... Escobar is a fantastic defensive SS and he can hit for average, however his walk rate at AAA was lower than Brendan Katin. He's very good, but if he is going to be even average offensively for a SS he will either need to develop a lot more power or walk a lot more.

 

I don't mean to pick on you Louis, as I certainly have shared these thoughts about Escobar in the past. However, Escobar just keeps getting better and better as he moves up. That usually is a very good sign of very good things to come, as you rarely see good to great players regress as they move up. Power remains a concern, as do the walks, but again, he keeps getting better in those areas while staying strong in the speed/defense department. Talent can overcome any obstacle as long as the player shows the acumen to make the proper adjustments, which of course is what the game is all about.

Colby, unless the walk rate improves, Escobar has to hit .300 to be below average unless he develops power. If it drops to .250 or so, we could be looking at a .600-.650 OPS.

 

Right now, we have Royce Clayton 2.0 - speed, good D, and a .650-.700 OPS.

[804Sox]

I agree with your analysis, but not with your conclusion. I think that you can live with a .680 OPS from a top-tier defensive SS. If he posts OPS in the .720 range he's among the most valuable SS in the game.

[logan82]

I think that when looking at Escobar we need to keep in mind how incredibly low the bar is for an average SS on offense. If he plays up to his potential on defense, he will be a very valuable player even if he is never more than a bottom of the order hitter.

 

AL .274/.329/.391/.720

NL .268/.327/.396/.723

MLB .271/.328/.394/.721

 

 

I know I really shouldn't complain because I didn't submit a list myself, but I find it kind of surprising to see Escobar anywhere out of the top 3 on anybody's list. Of course everybody has their own way of judging players.

[TooLiveBrew]

MLB .271/.328/.394/.721

 

That's probably about what I'd project Escobar to do in 2010, so I already think his value is tremendous, given his defensive ability.

[logan82]

It's a little higher than I expect, but not much. I think that line would still make him a bottom of the order hitter on our current team.

[LouisEly]

Some of the brightest prospects in the Brewers' farm system have been invited to the team's spring training in Phoenix.

Here is the list:
RHP Eric Arnett
LHP Zach Braddock
RHP Kyle Heckathorn
C Jonathan Lucroy
C Martin Maldonado
CF Logan Schafer

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/81880532.html#comments

Arnett and Heckathorn's invites were a part of their contract, and Maldonado is going because of the need for extra catchers. Lucroy and Braddock are two of the team's most advanced prospects, and judging by this apparently they think the same of Schafer.