36 Minutes with Melvin -- Latest: Gord Ash Audio

[chadomac]

Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear. I meant to say that the odds are stacked against Weeks playing an entire healthy season due to the fact that he hasn't done so in years. I think it's a huge mistake not to offer Lopez arbitration. Chances are that a major injury will occur to one of our starting infielders... most likely Weeks and possibly McGehee... possibly anyone for that matter. Lopez would've been good insurance IF he had somehow accepted arbitration, which no one expects.

[TooLiveBrew]

I wonder if Doug thinks keeping McGehee and Gamel gives some depth at 2B. I know most don't like Casey at 2B (I don't, personally), but as injury depth I wouldn't mind him. I think he can hit enough to make it work, as long as someone like Counsell's there too.

[Invader3K]

The thing to remember with McGehee is he seemed to have nagging injury issues all season, but was still quite serviceable defensively at 3B. I think he could be fine at 2B if he is fully healthy in 2010.

 

They really should try to get Counsell re-signed soon though.

[sgtcluels]

Best estimate I could come up with..assuming round arbitration numbers is $66million and tons of holes to fill. Check it out

[nate82]

Best estimate I could come up with..assuming round arbitration numbers is $66million and tons of holes to fill. Check it out

I came up with about $75.9m as the teams budget with Hall, Looper, Weathers, and Looper all added in. Without Hall, Looper, and Weathers counting towards the teams salary it would be $67.0m. This is assuming Counsell resigns with the Brewers with the same deal he signed last year also with an assumption that the arbitration raises will be at 1.5 to 2.5 times the salary that the players made last year. This does not include Gomez though and I am not sure what Gomez status is since Cot's has his ML service time as 1.141. I believe Gomez is super2 eligible I'm just not 100% sure on that though. Also I have the Brewers retaining Vargas but he could be replaced with either Axford or Butler both would be making about $500k. The Brewers would have about $18m to work with if Hall, Looper, and Weathers money is not counted towards the salary. That should be enough to get two starting pitchers. The bullpen will probably be filled by Axford, Vargas, or Butler. Also Narveson figures to be in the mix for either a rotation spot or a spot in the bullpen more than likely Narveson will be in the bullpen to start the year.

 

My numbers

Player		Salary
Jeff Suppan		$12.50
Prince Fielder		$10.50
Trevor Hoffman		$7.50
David Riske		$4.50
David Bush		$6.00
Rickie Weeks		$4.00
Jody Gerut		$2.50
Ryan Braun		$1.00
Craig Counsell		$1.00
Todd Coffey		$3.00
Carlos Villanueva		$2.00
Manny Parra		$0.50
Mike Rivera		$1.50
Yovani Gallardo		$0.50
Mitch Stetter		$0.50
Mark DiFelice		$0.50
Alcides Escobar		$0.50
Mat Gamel		$0.50
Casey McGehee		$0.50
Chris Narveson		$0.50
Claudio Vargas		$2.50
Corey Hart		$4.50
Total		$67.00

[logan82]

The Brewers would have about $18m to work with if Hall, Looper, and Weathers money is not counted towards the salary.

 

I doubt that it will show up on any payroll lists anywhere. However, I would be willing to bet it will count against our payroll when looking at what we can spend.

 

Per Cot's

Super 2

A player with almost 3 years of Major League service time may become eligible for arbitration.

 

To qualify, a player must:

 

* have at least 2 years of service, but less than 3, and

* have accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year, and

* rank in the top 17% of all 2-year players in service time.

 

The cutoff point generally falls between 2 years, 128 days of service and 2 years, 140 days.

 

Seems to put Gomez easily within super 2 status, which really makes the deal look even worse in my eyes.

[sgtcluels]

Yes Gomez is super 2. So he's in Arby 1 (Noted on his line). I assume that the money we are paying are included in any budget we have, if we don't count the $13m it looks like we could do real things with it. But that's assuming that Mark is willing to roll them bones and pay a few million out. Since Lopez was a risk due to possibly accepting and making what $5m... it's fairly safe to assume that $13m is included in any budget we have.

[Thurston Fluff]

Time to clear him out and try to lure Jack Zduriencik back

 

How does getting the guy whose weakness with this team was finding pitchers help the team when it's major need is good young pitching? Lets see what he does over a period of time in Seattle before we deem him the next great GM.

 

I don't see how Brewers management can expect Weeks to play a full healthy season... therefore you definitely risk offering Lopez arbitration.

 

We have Irabarren and Heether if Weeks does go down. Failing that there is always trades to be made if that happens. Lopez type trades are usually out there to be had. Tying up valuable payroll to avoid possible problems at the expense of spending it on known problems seems counter productive to me.

[logan82]

If they are planning on a $80M payroll instead of $90M like McCalvy speculates, that would be huge. Link

The Brewers' payroll probably won't move dramatically in either direction from the $80 million level at which the team began 2009.

[sgtcluels]

No big surprise here. I think attendance will regress and Mark can't afford to lose a ton of money.

[logan82]

I agree that attendance will regress a bit. Using your figures $66-$67M would mean $13M instead of $23M. That is a huge difference and will go quickly even putting in only $500K for each current hole.

[nate82]

I agree that attendance will regress a bit. Using your figures $66-$67M would mean $13M instead of $23M. That is a huge difference and will go quickly even putting in only $500K for each current hole.

There are only 4 holes that I can see. sgtcluels forgot about Narveson who will definitely be back either in the rotation or in the bullpen. I believe Narveson will battle out Suppan for the #5 spot in the rotation in spring training. That leaves 1 catcher, 1 SP, 1 utility player, and 1 OF. There will be only one really expensive hole to fill and that will be a starter. Which will take about $10m. At catcher you will either have Lucroy/Salome/Kottaras/FA the utility player will either bee Iribarren/Heether/Counsell and the reserve OF will probably be either Heether/Iribarren/FA. Cheapest route would be to either have Lucroy/Salome/Kottaras at catcher with Iribarren/Heether taking the utility spot and a FA signing for the 5th OF spot.

[yoshii8]

nate82, I don't think Narveson has been guaranteed anything for next season. Although, if he pitches like he did at the end of the season in spring training he could win a job. I think we will have to wait and see how many pitchers Melvin brings in before declaring him a definite 25 man roster guy.

[silversurferr]

Zaun replaces Rivera. 2 million is too much for Villanueva. They will try to move Hart.

[nate82]

nate82, I don't think Narveson has been guaranteed anything for next season. Although, if he pitches like he did at the end of the season in spring training he could win a job. I think we will have to wait and see how many pitchers Melvin brings in before declaring him a definite 25 man roster guy.

Whoever is the last bullpen guy it will be between Narveson, Suppan, and Axford maybe even Capuano or Butler. Narveson could even slip in as the #5 starter in place of Suppan/Parra.

 

The Brewers could start the year in 2010 with a rotation of Gallardo, FA, FA, Bush, Narveson (expensive rotation assuming the Brewers have about $15-20m to work with) or Gallardo, FA, Parra, Bush, Narveson/Suppan/Villanueva/Butler.

 

What I do not see happening is the Brewers signing any relievers this year in FA (other than the Hoffman resigning that is) maybe Vargas will resign but I'm not as confident about that as I was earlier in the off season.

 

I believe the Brewers will try to have two lefties in the bullpen that is if Parra has a strong showing in spring training if Parra doesn't I could see Narveson taking that #5 spot with Axford taking the final bullpen spot in spring training. It will all depend on how much the Brewers spend on FA pitching though and who they get.

[rluzinski]

I can not think of one good reason why Hall's contract wouldn't count. I would think it all counts.

[Invader3K]

Haudricourt seemed to insinuate recently that the Brewers are counting it (Hall's salary) in their payroll, and really, why wouldn't they? It's not like that money doesn't factor into the budget now that he's with another club.

[twobrewers]

I can not think of one good reason why Hall's contract wouldn't count.

Yeah, but it doesn't count against the salary cap!

 

Actually, would it count for luxary tax purposes?

[Invader3K]

Can you imagine the day when the Brewers have to worry about the luxury tax?

 

Yeah, me either.

[logan82]

Yup, Hall counts. Link

 

"Buyouts in contracts count on our payroll," said Melvin. "That's the thing when you're doing payrolls that people don't understand. We also budget $2 million for call-ups (from the minors). And there's incentives (in contracts)."

but hey, we only have $7M committed in 2011

 

"We only have $7 million in commitments to contracts (for 2011)," said Melvin. "There were only two clubs in baseball with less than that. That's why we were able to do multi-year deals."

I am sure he meant before Hawkins and Wolf were signed. While technically he is correct, I doubt they nontender almost the whole team including Fielder.

[dadofandrew]

But the point is, they could. If Prince blows out a knee and has to miss '11, they do not have $12M going to him. That's huge.

[logan82]

Of course they could. Unrealistic scenarios don't mean much to me.

[ILuvDaBush]

It would appear that Melvin takes pride in the ability to make the team "play for pay" if you will. I doubt he's going to be giving anyone outside of Prince an extention in the near future. I continue to hold out hope for Bush, but what's concerning is that there hasn't been much lip service paid at all to locking up Yo. I understand he's still three years from FA, but it does make me worry that perhaps Yo isn't as valued as our Terrible Two.

[Invader3K]

Gallardo is under team control for three more season after 2010 (unless the salary webpage on this site is wrong). Probably a bit early to worry about a contract extension with such a young pitcher.

 

It will be interesting to see in January how the rumored extension talks with Prince go.

[Mass Haas]

Here's another 20 minutes with Doug from WSSP -- a Benjamin Button analogy among other nuggets, Doug's going to Spain for ten days of vacation, so expect a quiet time (as is usual) during the holiday week -- goodness, I despise that week purely from a baseball standpoint.