36 Minutes with Melvin -- Latest: Gord Ash Audio

[Mass Haas]

The ESPN Milwaukee audio with Doug Melvin that has been alluded to in a thread or two here this week

 

Doesn't sound like offering arbitration to Cameron or Lopez is an option.

 

Obviously touches on a variety of topics during the interview.

[dadofandrew]

Sounds like money is a bit tighter than you might hope, as they can't take that risk. That's why having Hardy at SS and Cameron in CF while still adding SP's was a pipe dream.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, that's one thing I questioned when a lot of people complained about the Hardy trade. No one really seemed to lay out a plan of how the Crew would have added decent SP with Cameron and Hardy still on board.

 

This was also the first time I'd heard Melvin acknowledge any sort of possibility of moving Gamel to the outfield, which is sort of interesting.

[dadofandrew]

While Hart is still with the team, it is a non-issue. If Hart is dealt, we'll see if that's part of the plan.

[logan82]

No one really seemed to lay out a plan of how the Crew would have added decent SP with Cameron and Hardy still on board.

 

I question how we get good pitching without either of them. Sure we freed up money, but it isn't like the pitchers are likely to have anywhere near the same impact as Hardy or Cameron.

[Hate those Rodents]

but it isn't like the pitchers are likely to have anywhere near the same impact as Hardy or Cameron.

Are you saying that Escobar and Gomez are nowhere near as good as those two defensively?

[sbrylski]

but it isn't like the pitchers are likely to have anywhere near the same impact as Hardy or Cameron.

Are you saying that Escobar and Gomez are nowhere near as good as those two defensively?

I think he's saying that if we have $20 million tied up in 6 wins provided by Hardy+Cameron, freeing up $20 million to spend on pitching isn't likely to net 6 wins of pitching. We might be getting more balanced at the expense of getting worse overall. We'll have to see what DM has up his sleeve.

[Oldcity]

Last year Hardy's WAR was 1.4. Cameron's was 4.3. If they spent their money on, say, Carl Pavano (3.7) and Aaron Harang (2.5), they likely come out ahead when the value of Gomez and Escobar is added.

[LouisEly]

Sounds like money is a bit tighter than you might hope, as they can't take that risk.

That's what I've been saying for a while. The economy is still bad, and despite the gains in the stock market businesses are not going to be scrambling to sign up for luxury suites or advertise on the scoreboard, and unemployment is still over 10%. Even though they drew over 3 million fans, a big part of their revenue comes from luxury boxes and advertising. I think MA is anticipating luxury suites and ad revenue, and possibly attendance, to be down this year and needs to cut costs.

[logan82]

Last year Hardy's WAR was 1.4. Cameron's was 4.3. If they spent their money on, say, Carl Pavano (3.7) and Aaron Harang (2.5), they likely come out ahead when the value of Gomez and Escobar is added.

 

It isn't what a player did last year only. Of course Hardy in 2009 is easily replaced if you think that is his true worth. We shouldn't be looking at 2009 only though. Doing so is a huge mistake. Hardy has had WARs of 4.5, 4.9 and 1.4 over the last 3 years. I think using only the 1.4 WAR to value him is undervaluing him. He may not reach those 4+ WARs again, but he should be much closer to those than the 1.4 from 2009.

 

Even after freeing up money, I doubt we could afford those 2 guys you suggest. People keep going on about how we freed up $15M and not mentioning that some of that is going back into raises for current players. Harang alone is due $12.5M next year. Not to mention the prospects we would have to give up.

 

I think he's saying that if we have $20 million tied up in 6 wins provided by Hardy+Cameron, freeing up $20 million to spend on pitching isn't likely to net 6 wins of pitching. We might be getting more balanced at the expense of getting worse overall. We'll have to see what DM has up his sleeve.

 

Yup, that's what I meant. I was hoping Hardy would get packaged with other players for a pitcher and address our real needs since I don't think most of the FA pitchers hold much promise. I hope Melvin will prove me wrong. I still think he gets another Looper type guy next year. The leftover FA pitcher on the market.

[Invader3K]

Sounds like the Brewers won't be offering arbitration to anyone, according to Haudricourt's latest comments on his blog. Sounds like they don't want to risk tying up any additional money at all, and want as much flexibility to go after pitching as they can create. I guess it makes sense, though I was half-hoping Lopez will still be around next year somehow.

[JohnBriggs12]

People keep going on about how we freed up $15M and not mentioning that some of that is going back into raises for current players.

 

They are freeing up more than $15 million. They paid Cameron, Hardy, Looper and Kendall a total of $23.65 million last year. That's not counting the partial salaries they paid to Lopez and Weathers last year which was easily another $1.5 million. So that's basically $25 million freed total. It's probably safe to assume McClung who made $1.66 million won't get tendered either, bringing the "freed' total to over $26.5 million.

 

Hoffman got a minimal base raise of $1.5 million. Fielder gets the biggest raise of $3 million. None of the arby eligible guys (Bush, Coffey, Gerut, Hart, Rivera, Villanueva, Weeks) figure to get huge raises. Coffey may get an extra million, but the other 6 shouldn't total any more than around 4 million in raises and that's assuming they all get tendered. and if they were to lock up 2 FA pitchers, I think they'll seriously consider non-tendering Bush. So total, it's likely no more than around $9-10 million in raises, not counting the nomimal amounts some pre arby guys will get.

 

So the $15 million is easily a reference point for what they have to spend to keep payroll about even.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I'm thinking roughly around $15 million might be correct, JohnBriggs.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think he's saying that if we have $20 million tied up in 6 wins provided by Hardy+Cameron, freeing up $20 million to spend on pitching isn't likely to net 6 wins of pitching. We might be getting more balanced at the expense of getting worse overall. We'll have to see what DM has up his sleeve.

 

I don't know if fielding the best possible team is as simple as adding up the total wins above replacement for the entire team and going with the one who has the most. While it does take into account defense it cannot take into account the value of defense for a particular situation. For instance teams with average pitchers who get a lot of ground balls need better infielders while teams with average pitchers who get a lot of fly balls need better outfielders.

Strikeout pitchers need less help defensively than contact pitchers. A guy with a offense heavy WAR would be more valuable to a strikeout pitcher than a ground ball pitcher who may need defensive oriented WAR players to maximize his effectiveness.

[brewmann04]

15 Mil that should be enough to get us Mulder and Wolf or Davis for the rotation.

[battlekow]

If you pay $15M for Mark Mulder, you're doing it wrong.

[JoeHova]

I don't understand why people act like if Lopez or Cameron accept arbitration, the Brewers would be stuck with them and their budget would be ruined. They could easily move either of those guys on a one-year deal. Not offering arbitration is a blatant and unacceptable cop-out by Doug Melvin, who appears to be running this team into the ground. Time to clear him out and try to lure Jack Zduriencik back (who may be upset at being forced by Seattle's management to re-sign Ken Griffey's dessicated carcass for yet another farewell tour).

[logan82]

I think Melvin said they were at $78M in payroll already.

[dadofandrew]

Joe, you could get stuck with them. You could sign one and they could get hurt working out the next day. With Cameron, there are literally 35 guys capable of being everyday CF's, that's why the Yankees were the only rumored team looking at him last year. Cameron on a 1y/$12M deal might be very tough to move at all.

[HiAndTight]

Joe, you could get stuck with them. You could sign one and they could get hurt working out the next day. With Cameron, there are literally 35 guys capable of being everyday CF's, that's why the Yankees were the only rumored team looking at him last year. Cameron on a 1y/$12M deal might be very tough to move at all.

 

Well anything could happen, but the Brewers cannot forgo valuable supplemental picks simply based on the long shot that someone could get hurt before the season.

 

Not offering Lopez arbitration would be just an incredibly foolish move. Cameron is obviously a different story because regardless of the affection for him on this board, he's clearly not valued as highly around baseball.

 

I do find it interesting. With one group of friends I'm arguing just how clueless they are to call Mike Cameron a terrible player and how he wasn't worth 10 million(he MAY not be worth it to us, but he's not quote-unquote "over paid"). How he strikes out and"only" hits .250. And on this board the exact opposite is true, he's valued a bit higher than I feel his actually is as I think WAR and other such are just jumping off points, not to be taken as an exact metric.

 

 

In any event, the fact that they're even considering not offering arby to Lopez is just incredible IMO. Just ridiuclous.

[sargennm]

Can you trade a guy that accepts arby before June 15th? Or is the rule different than signing a free agent? BTW, it very well could be MA's call on not offering arby to any of these guys considering he holds the purse strings.

[chadomac]

I don't see how Brewers management can expect Weeks to play a full healthy season... therefore you definitely risk offering Lopez arbitration.

[HiAndTight]

I don't see how Brewers management can expect Weeks to play a full healthy season... therefore you definitely risk offering Lopez arbitration.

 

Well I expect him to play a full season, but you're absolutely right. How can the team "expect" that of him after the last few seasons and coming off a wrist injury.

 

But it's not so much that I think we ought to offer it to Lopez so we can keep him. I think keeping him at ~5 million would be a fantastic deal and would allow us a great deal of flexability, but moreso that I think he'll obviously turn it down and you'll pick up a coveted draft pick for nothing.

 

Yovani Gallardo, Kentrail Davis, Kyle Heckathorn, Cameron Garfield, Max Walla, JJ Hardy, Jacob Odorizzi...these are just a few of the guys we've selected in the 2nd round in recent years. This is the type of talent you're giving up for absolutely nothing by letting him go. It's just not a good baseball decision.

[HiAndTight]

Can you trade a guy that accepts arby before June 15th? Or is the rule different than signing a free agent? BTW, it very well could be MA's call on not offering arby to any of these guys considering he holds the purse strings.

 

Yes, you are correct, it could be Mark A's call, but he's generally been a little less frugal with the purse strings than Doug Melvin has, and given that the team clearly has some money to spend, it sounds to me as though this is Melvin being a little bit too careful when perhaps a little risk is in order.

 

As for when you can trade him, I don't believe it's the same as a Free Agent. I believe you can trade him almost immediately. Someone else will clarify I would assume.

[Invader3K]

The whole Weeks situation at second base has bugged me for quite a while.

 

As everyone knows, he missed almost a full season, and while I'm sure he'll come to spring training healthy and ready to play, there is no way knowing going forward what kind of player he will be. He was just showing flashes of reaching the potential so many were proclaiming he had for some long, then suffered a serious injury. He could be coming back with reduced skill and power. I hope not, but I think it is somewhat foolish to expect him to come back and play at an optimum level with no backup plan. Hopefully Melvin has Craig Counsell or someone else nearly locked up for next year. Rickie Weeks' history shows that it's more than likely a backup will be needed at 2B at some point this season.