Josh Johnson - contract negotiations at an "impasse"

[logan82]

Logan, no need to deal in absolutes. Lucroy PROBABLY wouldn't but unless you're Nostradomus, you are bereft of certainty.

In my opinion, Lucroy wouldn't be average at 1B. 1st basemen, especially in the NL are very good hitters. He is projected at about .710 OPS for next year. That would have made him the worst regular 1B in the NL last year. Even if he can get up to an .800 OPS that would only make him better than 3 guys last year.

 

Better?

[ILuvDaBush]

I understand projections, but look at what Bill James' projection for Josh Hamilton. I can't say definitively that a player who last year led the Southern league in BA would be the worst offensive 1B in the NL (but I would say that he would make Prince look like Sexson at 1B).

 

Nevertheless, I get very excited about the prospect of extending some combination three cornerstone Brewers this offseason (JJ-Prince-Yo) if this trade goes down.

[LouisEly]

Keith Law speculates that 2 MLB ready players and 2 AA prospects will be needed to get Johnson. Melvin should be working this one hard.

Sounds like they want to move Uggla and thus move Coghlan to 2B, which would open up another OF spot. From what I heard they wanted a true CF as they think Maybin is better suited defensively as a corner OF. So...

 

2 MLB-ready players = Gomez and McGehee

2 AA prospects = Salome and either Jeffress or Rivas

 

They get Gamel instead of McGehee only if we get John Baker in return.

 

BTW - they want to get rid of salary, so don't have any proposals that include anyone making seven figures for at least two years (i.e. Hart, Bush, Weeks, etc.)

[ILuvDaBush]

Would Coffey interest them at all? They have Jose Ceda...Leo Nunez...umm... They could probably use a true-proven late inning player. He'd only be under control for one year but he would be fairly cheap and could easily be jettisoned at the deadline if he were installed as their closer (much as chicks dig the longball, GM's dig the save).

[nate82]

Would Coffey interest them at all? They have Jose Ceda...Leo Nunez...umm... They could probably use a true-proven late inning player. He'd only be under control for one year but he would be fairly cheap and could easily be jettisoned at the deadline if he were installed as their closer (much as chicks dig the longball, GM's dig the save).

Right state wrong team that would have interest in Coffey. I think the Brewers could pry someone away from the Rays if they traded Coffey to the Rays. I don't see the Marlins being interested in trading for Coffey not enough years of control for the Marlins to even think about it.

[logan82]

I understand projections, but look at what Bill James' projection for Josh Hamilton. I can't say definitively that a player who last year led the Southern league in BA would be the worst offensive 1B in the NL (but I would say that he would make Prince look like Sexson at 1B).

 

The line Lucroy put up in the Southern League last year would have been below average for an NL 1B. I have serious doubts about Salome offensively as well. His great year in AA(2008) came with a .401 BABIP. His next best OPS was .806. Below average for a 1B.

[804Sox]

Keith Law speculates that 2 MLB ready players and 2 AA prospects will be needed to get Johnson. Melvin should be working this one hard.

Sounds like they want to move Uggla and thus move Coghlan to 2B, which would open up another OF spot. From what I heard they wanted a true CF as they think Maybin is better suited defensively as a corner OF. So...

 

2 MLB-ready players = Gomez and McGehee

2 AA prospects = Salome and either Jeffress or Rivas

 

They get Gamel instead of McGehee only if we get John Baker in return.

 

BTW - they want to get rid of salary, so don't have any proposals that include anyone making seven figures for at least two years (i.e. Hart, Bush, Weeks, etc.)

wow. there are 0 good players/prospects in this trade proposal. Is that all it takes to land a young, cost-controlled ace?

[Invader3K]

"wow. there are 0 good players/prospects in this trade proposal. Is that all it takes to land a young, cost-controlled ace?"

 

You really don't think McGehee or Salome or any good? You really don't think Gomez has any upside at all? Come on.

 

I don't think we can trade Jeffress right now due to his suspension, and I admit to not being that familiar with Rivas.

 

I have to admit I'm a bit perplexed by the recent rash of trade proposals on this forum including Gomez, though. Who would be playing center field next year if we trade him right now? Please don't suggest Mike Cameron either.

[endaround]

Gerut and a RHed 5th Ofer. That said the Marlins are unlikely to want Gomez since he already is in arbitration (one of the reasons I dislike the Hardy deal).

[princeginterhallhelms04]

I doubt we see J. Johnson traded at least not till Roy is traded. The marlins would get more once he is off the market!

[804Sox]

"wow. there are 0 good players/prospects in this trade proposal. Is that all it takes to land a young, cost-controlled ace?"

 

You really don't think McGehee or Salome or any good? You really don't think Gomez has any upside at all? Come on.

 

I don't think we can trade Jeffress right now due to his suspension, and I admit to not being that familiar with Rivas.

 

I have to admit I'm a bit perplexed by the recent rash of trade proposals on this forum including Gomez, though. Who would be playing center field next year if we trade him right now? Please don't suggest Mike Cameron either.

I mean . . . they're all good baseball players. Anyone who makes it to the majors or is a reasonably well-respected prospect is. But "good" is relative, especially when trying to acquire one of the top pitchers in ALL of baseball. Even though they may be "good" in some sense, all four of the players you list are the type that can be found in most organizations and a re certainly not sufficient to acquire a player of Johnson's calibre

 

McGehee has to be considered a good utility infielder right now, and nothing more. He has poor prospect pedigree, almost no track record of major or minor league success before this year, unimpressive tools, and little upside given his current age. He doesn't hit for enough power to be a good starting 3B, the position where he best fits defensively. If McGehee repeats the year he had last year, then certainly perception of his value will change considerably, but until then it is relatively low.

 

Salome is a pretty good hitter for a catcher, but every report i've read indicates that he's unlikely to stick there. His bat becomes much less impressive when he's projected as a 1B or DH.

 

Gomez is probably the best player in the deal, and I'm higher than him on most because he does 3 things very well. He has great range in CF, a good arm, and outstanding speed. Gomez was a highly regarded prospect who was rushed and still has huge holes in his game, but he has more tools than any other player int he deal and still COULD put it together (I don't think he'll ever be a good hitter). Even if he doesn't, Gomez is an elite defender and base-runner. and will always be a useful piece.

 

I, admittedly, don't know too much about Rivas, but it is clear from this site's rankings and those of the major prospecting publications that he's not a stud prospect, and a trade for Johsnson would most certainly require at least 1 stud prospect going in the Marlins direction.

 

In summation, all of the above are "good" baseball players, but acquiring a young, proven ace like JJ requires the transfer of elite prospects.

[benji]

I would add the Gamel is at least a prospect.

[LouisEly]

You're right - McGehee's .859 OPS last year was pretty awful. Especially considering the .611 OPS that Florida got from Bonifacio and the .682 OPS they got from Wes Helms at 3B last year. Add to that McGehee's $400K salary the next two seasons, and I can see why Florida wouldn't be interested in him at all. What was I thinking.

[Roderick]

I don't see the Marlins being interested in trading for Coffey not enough years of control for the Marlins to even think about it.

I don't know, it seems to me you can always flip a good reliever to a contender in July for some good prospects. That will give you all kinds of years under control.

[HiAndTight]

Salome is a pretty good hitter for a catcher, but every report i've read indicates that he's unlikely to stick there. His bat becomes much less impressive when he's projected as a 1B or DH.

 

Every report you've read indicates he's unlikely to stick there?

 

I would say you're greatly overselling the question marks regarding Angel. There are questions about his defense, but very few question if he's going to stick at catcher.

 

And if you're talking about tools, few catchers can match Angel's pure tools.

 

I understand the Lucroy v Salome argument, I don't understand this argument.

 

 

And Amaury Rivas is a very, very good prospect. He is in the lower levels of the minors, but he throws in the low to mid 90's, and his change was voted the best in the Florida State League. But if you know little about a pitcher such as Rivas, calling him a non-prospect, or not a good prospect seems odd.

 

 

 

I don't believe that would be enough to get Johnson either, but I believe you're really, really underselling the players included in this proposal. In fact, I think an argument could be made for Rivas vs any other pitcher in our system.

[TooLiveBrew]

You're right - McGehee's .859 OPS last year was pretty awful. Especially considering the .611 OPS that Florida got from Bonifacio and the .682 OPS they got from Wes Helms at 3B last year. Add to that McGehee's $400K salary the next two seasons, and I can see why Florida wouldn't be interested in him at all. What was I thinking.

 

I think you missed his point, LE. Basically everything 804 had to say about McGehee was spot-on. You're talking a sample of less than 400 PAs last season... I know you're aware of the problems inherent in that.

[804Sox]

You're right - McGehee's .859 OPS last year was pretty awful. Especially considering the .611 OPS that Florida got from Bonifacio and the .682 OPS they got from Wes Helms at 3B last year. Add to that McGehee's $400K salary the next two seasons, and I can see why Florida wouldn't be interested in him at all. What was I thinking.

Yes. McGehee had a good year last year, but there is NO evidence that he'll do it again. Obviously it's possible that McGehee had a breakout year and will continue to produce at a high level, but it is far more likely that this season was an anomaly because he lacks tools, pedigree, and track-record.

 

When a highly touted prospect with highly rated tools has a season that is far better than he has previously produced, it is justifiiable to predict continued success in the future, even without a track-record of MLB or MiLB success to back it up, because one can assume that perhaps the player has finally "put it together." Examples include Hanley Ramirez, who jumped from AA to the Majors and had a monster rookie year after having put up pedestrian numbers throughout his major league career. Josh Hamilton's breakout year in 2007 earned him enough value to return Edinson Volquez because the former #1 overall pick had the pedigree and the tools to suggest that his '07 season was not an anomaly. He rewarded the Rangers with 130 RBI the next season. Along these lines, Felix Pie is a player whose success I would expect to continue because he has always had good tools, was once a highly rated prospect, and is still only 24. Of course there are exceptions to this logic too. Corey Patterson had the tools to back up his breakout, but never acquired the patience or contact ability to be a successful major leaguer. Casey McGehee does not fit this mold. The former 10th round pick never appeared on any of the Cubs top-prospect lists, was available to be claimed off waivers by the Brewers, and has unspectacular tools in terms of power and speed. He is also entering his age 27 season, where most players are peaking physically (suggesting that some of his HR will turn into doubles, in line with his minor league track record)

 

On the other hand, there are the players whose breakout is not backed by tools or pedigree, but whose track-record of success suggests that they will continue to be successful. Dustin Pedroia was this type of player. Scouts always questioned his small stature, super-long swing, and questionable power and speed tools, but Pedroia hit at every level. When he hit .317 with an .823 OPS as a rookie in 2007, it was clear that Pedroia's season was not a fluke because he had hit at every level as he worked his way through the system. Once again, McGehee does not fit this mold. He never once posted an OPS over .780 in his 6-year minor league career, and hit poorly in Chicago in a negligibly small sample size.

 

McGehee COULD have another good year, in which case I would be forced to take note and reassess his value, but right now there is nothing to suggest that he will repeat last year's performance. I would predict his OPS to fall in the .780-.800 range with more doubles, fewer HR, slightly lower AVG, and lower isoD. That type of production wouldn't at all be bad, but is not what most teams would want out of a starting 3B.

[804Sox]

Salome is a pretty good hitter for a catcher, but every report i've read indicates that he's unlikely to stick there. His bat becomes much less impressive when he's projected as a 1B or DH.

 

Every report you've read indicates he's unlikely to stick there?

 

I would say you're greatly overselling the question marks regarding Angel. There are questions about his defense, but very few question if he's going to stick at catcher.

 

And if you're talking about tools, few catchers can match Angel's pure tools.

 

I understand the Lucroy v Salome argument, I don't understand this argument.

 

 

And Amaury Rivas is a very, very good prospect. He is in the lower levels of the minors, but he throws in the low to mid 90's, and his change was voted the best in the Florida State League. But if you know little about a pitcher such as Rivas, calling him a non-prospect, or not a good prospect seems odd.

 

 

 

I don't believe that would be enough to get Johnson either, but I believe you're really, really underselling the players included in this proposal. In fact, I think an argument could be made for Rivas vs any other pitcher in our system.

You're right. I probably am underselling Salome's ability to stick at catcher by saying that it is unlikely, but I maintain my position that there is a very significant chance that he will be moved off the position due to defensive deficiencies. Jeff Clement is evidence that even the best hitting catchers' value is severely reduced by a move to 1B.

 

w.r.t. Rivas - I've never seen him pitch, but his MiLB performance and scouting reports suggest he's a solid prospect - like Odorizzi and Scarpetta and Rogers and Anundsen and Periard . . . etc. The fact that the Brewers have this many similarly tiered players suggests that other teams do too. This doesn't mean that Rivas isn't good or valuable, or won't end up being better than any of these guys, but it certainly reinforces the notion that he is not an elite prospect. I disagree that Rivas compares favorably to any other pitcher in the system. I think Arnett, Braddock and Peralta are on a level above the rest of the pitching prospects (I'm particularly high on Peralta), even though Heckathorn got a lot of love in the offseason rankings.

 

As far as my main point, I think we're pretty much on the same page: Among McGehee, Gomez, Salome, and Rivas, there is no truly elite prospect. Acquiring a young, cast-controlled ace requires giving up at least one such player.

[logan82]

Average MLB player by position in 2009. All but the best hitting catchers would be below average hitters if moved to 1B.

 AVG OBP SLG OPS C AL 0.253 0.316 0.407 0.723 NL 0.255 0.325 0.385 0.710 MLB 0.254 0.321 0.395 0.716 1B AL 0.271 0.351 0.481 0.832 NL 0.282 0.373 0.485 0.858 MLB 0.277 0.363 0.483 0.846 2B AL 0.275 0.336 0.428 0.764 NL 0.268 0.337 0.406 0.743 MLB 0.271 0.336 0.416 0.753 3B AL 0.269 0.338 0.424 0.762 NL 0.261 0.333 0.420 0.753 MLB 0.265 0.335 0.421 0.757 SS AL 0.274 0.329 0.391 0.720 NL 0.268 0.327 0.396 0.723 MLB 0.271 0.328 0.394 0.721 LF AL 0.267 0.338 0.441 0.779 NL 0.271 0.343 0.439 0.782 MLB 0.269 0.341 0.440 0.781 CF AL 0.265 0.330 0.404 0.734 NL 0.268 0.339 0.424 0.763 MLB 0.267 0.335 0.414 0.749 RF AL 0.278 0.352 0.451 0.803 NL 0.264 0.339 0.442 0.781 MLB 0.270 0.345 0.446 0.792 

[HiAndTight]

w.r.t. Rivas - I've never seen him pitch, but his MiLB performance and scouting reports suggest he's a solid prospect - like Odorizzi and Scarpetta and Rogers and Anundsen and Periard . . . etc. The fact that the Brewers have this many similarly tiered players suggests that other teams do too. This doesn't mean that Rivas isn't good or valuable, or won't end up being better than any of these guys, but it certainly reinforces the notion that he is not an elite prospect.


I really don't agree with this at all. The position that because the Brewers have a lot of these "types" of pitchers doesn't suggest in any way that other teams do. That in and of itself doesn't really say anything about other organizations.

I think that the Brewers in fact would rank among the top couple organizations in the game if you're comparing the upsides of the pitchers we have in the lower minor leagues.

I disagree that Rivas compares favorably to any other pitcher in the system. I think Arnett, Braddock and Peralta are on a level above the rest of the pitching prospects (I'm particularly high on Peralta), even though Heckathorn got a lot of love in the offseason rankings.

Well I said that I think an argument could be made for him compared to any other pitcher in our system, and I still believe that.

I'm high on Peralta, Arnett and the rest of the guys. I don't think that you can put Braddock as a reliever on the same level as Rivas until Braddock shows he can put together even a months worth of starts. His ability is so impressive, but if he can't be a starter, he losses a lot of value.



In any event, I believe were you to put a Mat Gamel in that package over McGehee, you're getting closer to the true value, so at the end of the day we agree on the larger point.

[804Sox]

w.r.t. Rivas - I've never seen him pitch, but his MiLB performance and scouting reports suggest he's a solid prospect - like Odorizzi and Scarpetta and Rogers and Anundsen and Periard . . . etc. The fact that the Brewers have this many similarly tiered players suggests that other teams do too. This doesn't mean that Rivas isn't good or valuable, or won't end up being better than any of these guys, but it certainly reinforces the notion that he is not an elite prospect.

 

 

I really don't agree with this at all. The position that because the Brewers have a lot of these "types" of pitchers doesn't suggest in any way that other teams do. That in and of itself doesn't really say anything about other organizations.

 

I think that the Brewers in fact would rank among the top couple organizations in the game if you're comparing the upsides of the pitchers we have in the lower minor leagues.

 

I disagree that Rivas compares favorably to any other pitcher in the system. I think Arnett, Braddock and Peralta are on a level above the rest of the pitching prospects (I'm particularly high on Peralta), even though Heckathorn got a lot of love in the offseason rankings.

 

Well I said that I think an argument could be made for him compared to any other pitcher in our system, and I still believe that.

 

So you're making an argument that neither of us agree with? Interesting . . . Sounds like what each of us would call a bad argument.

 

Anyways, you're right that the fact that the Brewers have lots of projectable young pitchers doesn't mean that other teams do, but the fact is that most other teams have a similar stable of young pitchers on par with Odorizzi, Rivas, et al. I'll just take the AL East teams because I'm most familiar with them.

 

The Orioles have: Zach Britton, Nathan Moreau, Kenny Moreland, Jake Cowan, Vito Frabizio, Kevin Landry

Toronto has: Tim Collins, Charles Huggins, Henderson Alvares, Joel Carreno, Nestor Molina, Egan Smith

The Rays have: Aneury Rodriguez, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Alexander Colome, Jason McEachern, Kyle Lobstein

The Yankees have: Manuel Banuelos, Jairo Heredia, D.J. Mitchell, Jose Ramirez, Arodys Vizcaino

The Red Sox have: Felix Doubront, Kyle Weiland, Stephen Fife, Alex Wilson, Roman Mendez, Fabian Williamson

 

I think that the Rays and Red Sox are probably the only organizations out of the 5 to have a better stable of young pitchers (aside from the top prospects) than the Brewers, but every system has a solid collection of projectable arms.

[HiAndTight]

So you're making an argument that neither of us agree with? Interesting . . . Sounds like what each of us would call a bad argument.

What???? I honestly don't know where this is coming from. It is possible to agree with one point, that this package wouldn't be one that would get Josh Johnson, but to disagree with your individual evaluations of the players as being nothing special. Seems pretty simple to me.

 

 

I think that the Rays and Red Sox are probably the only organizations out of the 5 to have a better stable of young pitchers (aside from the top prospects) than the Brewers, but every system has a solid collection of projectable arms.

 

 

As for your lists of pitchers, it's too long of a list to get into, and I'm not familar with some of them, but simply listing names does not in any way prove that those are similar to Rivas, especially when you've stated repeatedly you're not very familar with Rivas. I think anyone could go get their BA Handbook and start listing every pitcher that's not in the top 3-5, but I'm not certain how it impacts our discussion. What it does not to is tell me in any way whatsoever that Rivas is a dime a dozen type prospect as you're suggesting.

 

But now I'm lost. If you agree in one sentence that the Brewers collection of young arms is as good as anyone not in the top 5, what are you arguing about with the AL East teams?

[Mass Haas]

Nearly every organization can point to strong-armed pitchers in Rookie Ball, Low-A and even high-A and say that they've got a stable of fine potential arms at the lower levels. Guys drafted or signed internationally within the past 2-3 years who have dominated and/or flashed brilliance. They either haven't been properly challenged yet or haven't hit their injury stage yet. Let's not proclaim the Brewers kids that much above others until this first crop deals with AA for a full season. Then you'll have some value there (or not). Don't kid yourselves that the value is currently that much greater than 20 other organizations right now.

[HiAndTight]

Nearly every organization can point to strong-armed pitchers in Rookie Ball, Low-A and even high-A and say that they've got a stable of fine potential arms at the lower levels. Guys drafted or signed internationally within the past 2-3 years who have dominated and/or flashed brilliance. They either haven't been properly challenged yet or haven't hit their injury stage yet. Let's not proclaim the Brewers kids that much above others until this first crop deals with AA for a full season. Then you'll have some value there (or not). Don't kid yourselves that the value is currently that much greater than 20 other organizations right now.

 

So if I believe that our group of young pitchers is better than most and all in all a very strong group, I'm "kidding myself"? That's a bit condescending. Disagree if you will, but I don't believe I'm "kidding" myself.

 

I believe with an average amount of injury concerns that this group will be a very impressive group of young arms, and I know many in the Brewers organization believe the same. I suppose we could all be "kidding ourselves", but I guess time will tell.

Either way, I believe Sox is a very insightful poster and understands the game quite well, but to readily admit you know little about a prospect and then dismiss his value is a little contradictory IMO.

 

Hey, by next year, Rivas could be on another TJ, Braddock could have struggled and had issues in AAA, Rogers could have had a large set back, Odorizzi may have run up a 5+ ERA in Appleton, Peralta could struggle, and on and on and on. There's far too much that can happen, so I won't pretend to have a definitive answer as to how they'll develop. I will say however that I believe you're vastly undestimating them.

[HiAndTight]

Either way, I think we all agree that the proposal for Johnson isn't really that close to what the Marlins would want.

 

 

And again to reiterate my point, I'd really be against moving a Rivas, Peralta, Scarpetta type as their value at this point is minimal regarding what I believe to be their upside and potential. Keep 'em all. Keep as many power arms who have high upsides as possible.

 

And again, no Brett Lawrie.