Josh Johnson - contract negotiations at an "impasse"

[804Sox]

Gamel, Salome, and Lawrie

 

Get him, sign him.

I agree that it would probably take a package of this magnitude to land Johnson. I think Lawrie is the player the Marlins would be targeting as the centerpiece to a Josh Johnson deal. JJ is one of the most valuable players in baseball. He's a legit ace, young, cheap (for now) and has proven himself to be a workhorse since coming off TJ surgery (which is completely behind him now)

 

An appropriate package would probably be something like Lawrie, Green/Lucroy, Peralta, and Gomez - maybe a bit more.

 

I agree that the Beckett trade is not the best comp for this one because:

1) the Marlins can still afford to go year-to-year with Johnson for now.

2) Beckett's pricetag was greatly reduced because the Marlins were desparate to rid themselves of Lowell's contract.

3) Beckett had never proven himself to be as durable as JJ is, even post-surgery. he had never thrown 200 innings due to various health problems, including chronic blistering on his fingers, and had never dominated the way JJ has over a full season (except for the playoffs)

[Oldcity]

Gamel, Salome and Lawrie is a huge offer, but I could probably be convinced to do it if Johnson signed that four year deal.

[igor67]

I'm far from convinced that emptying the farm of Impact potential bats is a good move. I like the idea of having two young guns in the rotation, but I also worry about not having a potential .900 OPS bat coming up through the system. Toss some of our pitchers in instead of all the bats.

[Raw Biz]

I don't think I would be willing to include both Gamel and Lawrie in the same deal. I didn't want to include both of them for Halladay so I probably wouldn't for Johnson either.

[NievesNoNO]

Stevo[/b]]Gamel, Salome and Lawrie is a huge offer, but I could probably be convinced to do it if Johnson signed that four year deal.

I agree. This seems to be a pretty rare opportunity. I have no problem giving up unproven talent for a proven stud pitcher. All those players might very well become all-star caliber players, but that's not a certainty. On the other hand, I know for certain that Josh Johnson is a ace at the major league level when healthy. Yes, it would be a hit to the farm system, but I trust them to replenish it with quality players. Also, if we were able to get him on the four year deal if things start to crash and burn for whatever reason we would still have time to deal him for other prospects in a couple years.

 

If he's really available, please Doug get in your plane, take Gamel, Salome and Lawrie with you, order up some customizable Marlins jerseys, walk into the GMs office with the three all decked out in Marlins gear and ask him if we have a deal.

[jackalope02ca]

Johnson pitched well last year but I also recall reading he left at least one start early and reported arm pain on a couple of occassions. I wouldn't be mortgaging the future on a pitcher coming off TJ and reporting ongoing arm pain. I wouldn't be very happy if the Brewers did a deal for a pitcher in this situation. Really it would make zero sense taking risks on a guy like this with the asking price it's going to take to get a deal done.

[PeaveyFury]

Just off TJ surgery is within a few seasons. Very few TJ folks have years of consecutive health...heck, not many pitchers do, and TJ folks are less healthy than average.

I presume you have a link/facts to back that up?

 

Based on your sudden and complete disappearance from this thread, I'm assuming this ended up being your assumption, and not actual fact?

[reillymcshane]

For what it's worth riveraveblues.com (a yankees site) considers what it would take to get johnson. He's under no illusion that it would be easy:

 

http://riveraveblues.com/...fter-the-big-fish-20278/

 

The Gamel, Salome and Lawrie package would likely be comparable. He puts out Joba Chamberlain (or Phil Hughes) and Jesus Montero plus some lesser prospects.

[ILuvDaBush]

I don't think I would be behind the Gamel/Lawrie/Salome deal. As has been mentioned earlier, those are undoubtedly our three best BATS in our system. Also, the Marlins would probably prefer some type of pitching in return for their ace pitcher. And what is with everyone's insistence on jettisoning Salome? His value is low right now, while Lucroy's is sky-rocketing. Thus, I would opine that:

Gamel

Lucroy

Odorizzi/Scarpetta

 

It has all the elements of what the Fish would probably be looking for. Gamel and Lucroy fill needs and Odorizzi or Scarpetta would cover up the lack of quality arms in their low minors.

[madtowndrunkard]

I think people lose sight of the impact a pitcher like JJ would make to this team. What would Gamel and Lawrie do for this team? Nothing next year...and who knows after that. The Brewers have been trying to draft a pitcher like JJ for decades and have for the most part failed miserable. Gallardo is by far the best pitcher to come out of Milwaukee since Sheets....and Sheets wasn't exactly a huge success. If the Marlins wanted Lawrie and Gamel for JJ - I'd jump all over that deal in a heart beat. JJ and Gallardo could anchor our rotation for a long time.

 

There is no gaurantee that Gamel or Lawrie will amount to anything special. And if they do - we still got an Ace calliber starter in return.

 

I just think the Marlins would likely want a pitcher in any JJ trade. I could see Gamel, Lawrie, and Parra for JJ.

[fondybrewfan]

I wouldn't hesitate at a Gamel, Salome, Parra trade but not sure if that is enough.

 

I saw enough talent out of Lawrie this year that thier is no way I part with him for anybody that will realistically be on the market this year. I just have a feeling that the kid is going to be very very good. Like Ryan Braun Version 2.0 good.

 

Trade anyone else in the minor league system besides Lawrie or LuCroy to get this guy in Milwaukee. A Johnson, Gallardo, Wolf, Bush, Suppan rotation would look pretty nice in 2010 if you ask me, especially if Melvin is able to keep our offense relatively in tact w/o trading any important pieces.

[splitterpfj]

I would give up Gamel or Lawrie, but not both of them...based on where they are on the minor league ladder, I would guess the Marlins would want Gamel first, because he's ready to play now.

 

I would guess it would take Gamel, an arm like Odorizzi, another decent prospect, and perhaps a 4th body who fills an organizational need for Florida.

 

I'd certainly do a deal for Johnson, and I'd be willing to pay for him...I just have a problem with Gamel and Lawrie both going, I don't see enough bats in the system right now to feel comfortable with that.

[nate82]

I agree that it would probably take a package of this magnitude to land Johnson. I think Lawrie is the player the Marlins would be targeting as the centerpiece to a Josh Johnson deal. JJ is one of the most valuable players in baseball. He's a legit ace, young, cheap (for now) and has proven himself to be a workhorse since coming off TJ surgery (which is completely behind him now)

 

An appropriate package would probably be something like Lawrie, Green/Lucroy, Peralta, and Gomez - maybe a bit more.

No. Lawrie wouldn't be the player the Marlins would be looking to get they have Coghlan who will be their 2B for the foreseeable future. Gamel makes more sense than Lawrie because Gamel will have more of an impact and will cost just about as much as Lawrie will and Gamel will be up when Ramirez is still with the Marlins. I believe the one I put forward will be rather close to what the Marlins would be looking for.

 

The Marlins would be getting a Left Handed power bat in Gamel to play with Ramirez, Salome a questionable catcher who could be in their starting lineup in 2010 along with Ramirez and Gamel, Scarpetta/Odorizzi both are young arms and would add more depth to their minors, and someone like Dykstra or someone like Brewer who haven't put it together yet but have a high upside if they do.

 

Gamel would be the key to the trade along with Salome everything else would be filler.

[804Sox]

If the Marlins prefer Gamel to Lawrie it's not because they're afraid of blocking at 2B with Coghlan, who is a pretty bad defensively there. I think he'll probably end up in LF, where, unfortunately, his bat won't play as well.

 

That said, I could certainly see a package being centered around Gamel. The marlin's desperately need some lineup protection for Hanley, particularly if Uggla is moved, and Gamel is a big, MLB-ready bat. However, I think that in either case (with Lawrie or Gamel being the centerpiece) a player better than Salome is going to have to be the #2 piece in the deal. probably Lucroy.

[ILuvDaBush]

Lucroy/Gamel would be the ideal starting point. Both are considered to be the better of their counterparts within the organization at their respective positions (you have to love prepositions). Honestly, I'm more attached to Gamel than Lucroy. I think Lucroy is being ensconced in hype right now, like velvet.

[HiAndTight]

I think they'd want Gomez and Gamel to get the deal done. I like Johnson and would like to get him but to the common brewer fan this is not going to be a move that they are going to get or like! I still have friends that don't understand the Hardy trade!

I don't agree at all.

 

I think the average Brewers fan looks at it as "JJ Hardy-All Star, Carlos Gomez-.229 hitter.....WHY!!!".

 

If we were to trade for Johnson they'd see a ace caliber starting pitcher getting traded for a guy most average fans still don't really care about and a prospect that most average fans see struck out a lot, and so he must be terrible.

 

And I really do think that is the way the average fan thinks. They'd love this deal....which makes me think...this MUST be terrible, right?

 

Seriously, this would be a nice guy to grab, but I would be picky about who I'd give up.

 

Gamel, McGehee, Hart(who they wouldn't likely want), Salome, Cain....guys like that, fine.

 

 

Definitely not Lawrie as I don't want to trade him at all. Not for Halladay last year and not for Johnson this year, and I really don't want to trade guys like Willy Peralta as I don't think their value on the trade market is going to be anywhere near to what they're capable of doing.

[clancyphile]

I think they'd want Gomez and Gamel to get the deal done. I like Johnson and would like to get him but to the common brewer fan this is not going to be a move that they are going to get or like! I still have friends that don't understand the Hardy trade!

Gomez+Gamel+Dave Bush for Johnson.

 

OK, the Brewers go with a Braun-Hart-Gerut OF, and McGehee gets third full-time until Taylor Green comes up to make things interesting.

 

Josh Johnson

Gallardo

Sharpie

Soup

Parra

 

Not the best outfield, but it's a good rotation.

[HiAndTight]

I would give up Gamel or Lawrie, but not both of them...based on where they are on the minor league ladder, I would guess the Marlins would want Gamel first, because he's ready to play now.

 

I would guess it would take Gamel, an arm like Odorizzi, another decent prospect, and perhaps a 4th body who fills an organizational need for Florida.

 

I'd certainly do a deal for Johnson, and I'd be willing to pay for him...I just have a problem with Gamel and Lawrie both going, I don't see enough bats in the system right now to feel comfortable with that.

Again, people may think I'm crazy, but I wouldn't do Lawrie straight up for Johnson.

 

It's not because I don't think that'd be a fair deal, in fact, I think based on current value we'd be getting an incredible deal. I just think Lawrie's going to be that good that I would make him almost untouchable.

 

So I hope the Marlins value Gamel more than Lawrie right now. I hope they don't value Lawrie that much at all.

 

 

I understand we're going to have to give a lot to get a pitcher like Josh Johnson, I'd just rather we keep the large group of very talented pitchers we've got and Brett Lawrie. Anyone else, go ahead.

[HiAndTight]

I don't like that comparison. Gallardo hasn't had TJ surgery. If teams don't factor in having TJ surgery, then they are going to get burnt in this deal. Not saying going after him is a bad idea, but you can't compare him to Gallardo who hasn't had arm troubles.

 

He did have surgery on both of his knees and then had the 2nd most walks in the NL the next season.

He had minor surgery on one knee and then hurt his other knee in an incredibly flukey situation.

 

And a young pitcher who had that many walks, yet still posted such impressive numbers, who by the way has never had a major issue with walks wouldn't really equate to a TJ surgery IMO.

 

Becketts was and remember the Marlins also traded Lowell and at the time he was a rather good and serviceable 3B.

 

Actually, if I remember correctly Lowell was due to make roughly 10 million dollars(perhaps just a shade less), had a recent injury history and the Marlins were looking to dump his contract meaning his value was pretty much neglegable at the time.

[Invader3K]

I too am not crazy on the idea of trading Lawrie at this point. Do we have any real way of knowing what kind of player Weeks will be going forward? Based on his playing history, he is unfortunately closer to "bust" than "break out" at this point. Don't get me wrong, I hope Weeks comes into the season fully healthy and plays like he did in his short 2009 campaign...I just wouldn't bet any significant amount of money on that happening. We may need Lawrie to fill in for Weeks again in the near future.

[PeaveyFury]

Add me to the list of people unwilling to move Lawrie at this point as well. I think any move the Brewers make could include Gamel or Lawrie, but shouldn't include both. If they're really looking to trade for a young-ish front line pitcher, a package of Gamel/Salome/Gomez should be a great place to start, and a package that's realistic for the Brewers to give up as well.

[nate82]

If the Marlins prefer Gamel to Lawrie it's not because they're afraid of blocking at 2B with Coghlan, who is a pretty bad defensively there. I think he'll probably end up in LF, where, unfortunately, his bat won't play as well.

 

I think that in either case (with Lawrie or Gamel being the centerpiece) a player better than Salome is going to have to be the #2 piece in the deal. probably Lucroy.

Lawrie probably won't be any better than Coghlan at 2B either and Gamel has more value to the Marlins. Getting a cheap player to play with Ramirez is going to be their #1 goal if they can do that in trading Johnson. Also Salome is better than Lucroy at least offensively he is. This year being an injury year I wouldn't be surprised if Salome has a better year next year than Lucroy does offensively. The only aspect that Lucroy is better than Salome at is his defense. I don't think the Marlins would really want Lucroy and they would rather have Salome over Lucroy because of the offensive difference.

 

Salome is still the better prospect over Lucroy it is just that Lucroy is probably a more sure thing than Salome is to stick at catcher. Gamel is going to be the player the Brewers will have to give up along with Salome and a pitcher to get Johnson.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If we think Lawrie is that good he probably is our best chance to bring a top starter here. Trades hurt guys. I'll worry about 2b later, we need to fix the starting pitching and fix it now.

[nate82]

If we think Lawrie is that good he probably is our best chance to bring a top starter here. Trades hurt guys. I'll worry about 2b later, we need to fix the starting pitching and fix it now.

No. Gamel is the most likely player to bring back a player like Johnson not Lawrie. Lawrie would bring back someone who has a lot more years that the Brewers would control preferably about the same as Lawrie.

 

I don't see any player of that magnitude being available so no Lawrie will not be traded it will more than likely be Gamel as the Brewers biggest player that they can trade and get pitching back not named Braun or Fielder.

[Mass Haas]

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