Brewers want to lock up Fielder long-term

[Invader3K]

Signing Prince to an extension would be huge. It would be a giant middle finger to the big market teams and their fans that covet him so much. For that reason I hope they can get it done. Plus the fact that he and Braun are one of the best hitting combos in baseball. Having them around for at least another 3-4 years together would lengthen our current "window of opportunity".

[owbc]

Why not just pay him market value? Why should we ask for a discount from everyone who signs here? He is going to cost 1/4 of our payroll but he is irreplaceable and the offense will be significantly worse without him.

[rluzinski]

You know how you give the middle finger? You beat them in the playoffs. That's the goal.

 

And by definition, Prince is worth what he's worth. Prince is an elite player, no doubt. But the Brewers aren't exactly hurting for positions they can improve. They don't need a 5 wins above average player to make the playoffs. Two above average starting pitchers would have equaled Prince last year.

 

Everyone loves to have supertars but I just want a playoff team. That could be with or without Prince, depending on how it all works. Nobody here knows the correct answer. We don't know what Prince wants or what he could fetch in a trade.

[Polish Falcons]

joepepsi wrote:

I grew up an Orioles fan.

And then what happened? The poor Orioles, such a great town and great stadium...

[tigerbrew]

The priority and urgency should be improving our starting pitching, I hope DM is focusing on that right now. While I like to see the Brewers lock up Prince for a few more years if possible, I don't think it's urgent or necessary right now.

 

If the Brewers do improve their rotation, I think it could show that the Brewers are serious about contending and may make it more compelling for Prince to stay longer.

 

Btw, I really hope DM aims higher and do better than Washburn or DD please. It's a disappointment if these are the guys he's targeting.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hard not to feel like this is just the beginning of the PR push from the Brewers. There's just no way the Brewers are going to get much of a bargain/discount, & I really don't see what Prince has to gain by not hitting the open market.

[LouisEly]

We're talking extension here. The extension will kick in after 2010 when Suppan/Hall are off the books, and this year they will probably clear over $20M off the books by letting Cam, Looper, Hardy, Kendall, and Weathers go, which can get them their two pitchers. Then take Suppan/Hall's $20M and give it to Fielder after next year. They get their two pitchers and get to extend Fielder.

 

No one's getting a huge raise this offseason. Coffey might get a couple million more, but I don't see Bush, Hart, Weeks, or Rivera making significantly more than they did last season. In 2011 some of the minor league talent will start hitting the majors (Lucroy, Braddock, Salome, Green, Cain, Butler, Schafer, Rogers) so they can go with those guys for cheap and spend a bulk of the payroll on Fielder, Braun, Gallardo, the free agent pitcher they sign this offseason, and maybe Weeks.

 

Note - is Gamel's line on the salary page correct? How could he have made $400K, the major league minimum, in 2008?

[Invader3K]

You know how you give the middle finger? You beat them in the playoffs. That's the goal.

 

That is fine to say, but I'd say the Brewers have a much higher chance to make the playoffs again the next few years with Prince than without. Also, I'd like to know who these young above average starting pitchers are that you keep talking about.

[rluzinski]

You know how you give the middle finger? You beat them in the playoffs. That's the goal.

 

That is fine to say, but I'd say the Brewers have a much higher chance to make the playoffs again the next few years with Prince than without. Also, I'd like to know who these young above average starting pitchers are that you keep talking about.

 

I said it because it was suggested that we should sign Prince to show them darn big market teams. That's taking your eye off the big picture, to be certain. Furthermore, and I've already mentioned this as well but, you have no idea if the Brewer's odds of making the playoffs will be better with or without Prince in the years to come. We could speculate that no team can put a package together equal to Prince's surplus value but I'm not sure that's true. And maybe Melvin has a better shot if he concentrates talent for 2011 and 2012. Who knows? But things are a lot more complicated than the messageboard mantra of "resign the good players and get rid of the bad ones". And finally, who said anything about trading Prince for two above average starting pitchers? I made that comment to put some perspective on what Prince's value was to the team last year. I'm trying to combat the "Prince is irreplacable" hyperbole. He's a great player no doubt but a team with so many holes doesn't need to concentrate so much talent at one position if other opportunities present themselves. This stuff is complicated and they are significant uncertainties. Anyone who things they know what the Brewers should do is wrong.

[Invader3K]

OK, you clarified your points and I can appreciate that.

 

Part of my statement on "giving the middle finger to the big markets", was motivated by the constant coveting of Prince I see displayed by fans of the Red Sox, etc. I realize you can't make moves to spite other teams' fans, but it does get frustrated being a small market fan, sometimes. It's so much easier to be a fan of a big market team, and it gets tiresome sometimes feeling like a second class citizen in MLB-dom. But that's neither here nor there.

 

The whole decision in regards to Fielder is complicated, no doubt. But with all the hoopla of all these good young players we had coming into their own just three to four years ago, only really Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder have lived up to the hype (or in their cases, exceeded them). I guess you could put Gallardo in that category as well, but let's keep pitching and hitting as a separate discussion for now. Hardy was just traded, Hall ended up as a boat anchor we had to give away, Hart is looking more and more like a disappointment, and we still have no idea what kind of player Weeks actually is. It would be nice to think that with this lauded group of young players, more than just Braun will be here past 2011 in some significant roll with the team. At some point a franchise has to keep at least a couple of their core players to build around. If any sort of reasonable deal is possible with Fielder (and I realize "reasonable" is a very relative term when discussing MLB contracts), I would like to think the Brewers would look at the big picture and get it done.

 

When are we going to win if Braun is surrounded by the likes of Gomez, Escobar, Cain, Lawrie, Lucroy, etc? Maybe they will all turn into nice young players, but they will probably take 3-4 years to mature as MLB players...right about the time Braun's contract is getting close to done. I realize nothing is a sure thing either way, but it bothers me to think Braun is the only solid position player we have to build around past 2011. People throw out seemingly half baked ideas (no offense intended to any posters here) like moving Gamel or McGehee to 1B in the future, but I think we can confidently say neither would come close to matching Fielder's hitting dominance. I say that not trying to slight either player. Prince is just that darn good with the bat. We don't have anyone waiting in the minors to take his place, either. It's easy to say "It's not that hard to find a good first baseman", but how long did this franchise go without a really good one firmly in place? We already saw Sexson and Overbay traded away. It would be nice to keep a first baseman and not worry about that position for a few more years.

 

Ultimately I would still wager that the odds of Fielder being a Brewer after 2011 are quite low, but it heartens me to know that Melvin and company are at least exploring the idea. Just a few years back, Fielder would have already been traded by now and we'd be talking about seeing our next "window of opportunity" in 2015 or thereabouts.

[Ennder]

I'm not counting Hall because there was never any hype over him in the first place. We had 5 big hitting prospects coming up, 2 became super stars(Braun, Fielder), 2 have had some injury problems and a mixture of good and bad years(Hardy, Weeks) and one who wasn't as hyped as the rest has been medoicre to average over his stint with us so far(Hart).

Seems pretty normal to me. The fact all of them because at least servicable major leaguers is pretty darn impressive. All 5 of them have had at least one season of 2 WAR or better. I'm thinking people had unreal expectations if they are upset over how this group of 5 ended up. If the next group of 5 does as well we'll be in pretty darn good shape. It isn't easy rebuilding a team that only had 3 major league quality hitters on it and thats what we had as recently as 6 years ago(2003).

[phxMILWfan]

Sorry if this was mentioned and I missed it but maybe DM thinks locking up Prince long term increases his chances of getting FA pitchers to sign with the team? It limits the money available to sign them but it shows them that the team will be competitive through the end of their contract.

[igor67]

Given that elite players are incredibly scarce I think by and large the best strategy for a small market team is to pay those guys the going rate (because you need a couple of truly elite players to have a shot) and then use the farm system and low end free agency to get good value elsewhere across the diamond. I don't buy into the notion that just because in the immediate term we could get equal value for Prince it's the best move. Trying to fill out a team with all above average players is not an enduring strategy. Sooner or later you are going to find your self stuck with a merely average player somewhere on that 25 man roster. Having intensely watched the Brewers drafting efforts over the last decade it's clear to me that good scouting can get you lots of good players. What they can never really predict though with great accuracy is which ones are going to hit that top level. On the other hand I've seen the fortunes of the farm system rise to the point that it can supply at least average players at every position fairly consistently.

[logan82]

I wouldn't want to extend Fielder unless it is for a hometown discount. I don't think it is a good idea to pay market value for elite players. It makes our team much riskier. I would rather have more positions filled with slightly above average players rather than a bunch of below average guys with one elite guy. If that one guy has a below average year or injury it drastically hurts your team while spreading your money over several guys means several guys would have to have bad years or injuries for your team to have a bad year.

 

Yes money is coming off from Suppan and Hall after this year, but wouldn't we be better off trying to extend Gallardo instead. I would think we are likely to get a better deal than we would from Fielder. Fielder is a 1B which is probably the easiest position to replace at least some of that production.

 

Odd that a lot of the discussion about Fielder after last season was about how he had gained weight and his production was somewhat disappointing.

[dadofandrew]

Yo is under team control through '13, no one wants to go 5+ years with any pitcher. It's a bit simple, but long-term with position players and year-to-year with pitchers makes a lot of sense.

[logan82]

I wouldn't extend Gallardo at this point either. Around his first year of arbitration I would seriously consider it.

[rluzinski]

I don't buy into the notion that just because in the immediate term we could get equal value for Prince it's the best move.

 

I don't think anyone said that. I know I didn't.

[monty57]

This is a tough call, and Russ is correct that there isn't a clear-cut answer. That said, I'd like to see the Brewers build from a core, as others have mentioned. Braun and Prince are the cream of the last crop, so do what you can to retain them. The next crop is coming up, with 2B (Lawrie), 3B (Gamel/McGehee), SS (Escobar), C (Salome/Lucroy), CF (Cain/Schafer/Gomez) RF (lots of players in low minors). Some of these players will falter, some will be average, some will be good, and hopefully some will be great. Try to lock up the great ones.

If we didn't have so much offensive talent coming up (at every position but 1B), I may look at things differently and think that we should trade Prince for the best offer we can get. However, with the young, cheap talent coming up, building around Prince and Braun seems to be the best way to build an offense. As long as those two are anchoring the offense, it will be good. If some of the prospects live up to the hype, the offense should be very good.

This move would also open the door to signing as good of pitchers as you can get for the next year or two, and allowing a good offense anchored by Braun / Prince and the youngsters mentioned above to be in place when the high-cieling prospects currently in the low minors finally make it to the majors. Play the game to be good now and in the years to come.

[JohnBriggs12]

At age 29, the Rockies signed Todd Helton to a 9 year, $141 million dollar contract with an option for 2012 of $23 million. In the 7 seasons since signing the contract, the Rockies have been to a World Series and made the playoffs twice.

 

Even though Helton was a major contributor on both teams, his numbers were below what he produced prior to signing the contract. Now it could be easily argued that he didn't quite live up to the big money he got, but it cannot be argued that the contract prevented the Rockies from fielding competitive teams, at least the 2 seasons they've made it to the playoffs. Some fear that signing Fielder to a long term deal at mega bucks will cripple the franchise. I think the Helton example proves otherwise.

[TheCrew07]

I fail to see how Denver and Milwaukee are comparable markets in any way.

[rluzinski]

I think the Helton example proves otherwise.

 

If I find an example where a bad signing crippled a franchise for years, does that "prove" otherwise? Anecdotal evidence can prove anything you want it to.

 

And Helton's contract hasn't even really hurt the club so far, anyway, so the example is probably a bad one. According to fangraphs, he's earned his money during his current contract. The chances of him doing so going forward is pretty small, though.

[kramnoj]

I'm not sure what the point of 44 is. Milwaukee has been able to outdraw the Rockies recently and has had higher payrolls.

 

The point that could have been made is that Colorado paying Helton $16.6M recently is different than what the Brewers will be paying Fielder, but B-Ref and Cots show the Rockies estimated payroll in 2007 as $54M with Helton making about 30% of that. So having one contract be a large portion of the payroll is not going to prevent a team from making it to the WS, if there is enough decent cheap talent.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure what the point of 44 is. Milwaukee has been able to outdraw the Rockies recently and has had higher payrolls.

Pointing to 1 team who signed 1 player is completely superficial analysis of the situation.

 

There's more to contracts than payroll and attendance. Denver has the 16th largest market, Milwaukee the 35th and is the smallest media market in MLB. I think it's pretty safe to say the Rockies have been making money hand over fist, they aren't confined by an $80,0000,000 payroll threshold like the Brewers, they just choose not to spend money, and haven't had to spend money to make the playoffs. There is no way the Brewers get Fielder for less 20 million per year, so we're also discussing a significantly larger contract... Fielder will make close to $11 mil next year with incentives and probably $16-17 in his final year of arbitration. To get Fielder to give up FA the Brewers would have to overpay and make it worth his while to bypass his first chance at FA, and he'll easily get $20+ per on the open market with Boston/LAA needing to keep pace with the Yankees. It wouldn't shock me if Prince got similar money to Helton's $140 million but he'll be signed for 4-6 years instead of 9 and unlike Helton who's not likely to be paid $23 mil that final season, Prince has a realistic opportunity to play out the final year of his first contract.

 

The Rockies went young and started rebuilding around some core players, Holliday and Lopez were the only other playesr that made even 4 million dollars that season. It's easy to carry a single large contract when the rest of your team is still pre arby or arby eligible. The Brewers almost owe as much to Hall as those 2 players were making, not to mention instead of Fuentes we have Riske for similar money, Suppan for 12+, Braun is already signed long term, Hoffman is signed for 2 years, and so on. We have money falling off the books in the next 2 years, but what if DM signs more FA pitchers... then what?

 

This all gets back into the same arguments many of us have made all along about how/when/why to spend money on players. Colorado put their money into their core producing players, much like many of us pointed out what Tampa had done.... Milwaukee has not done the same and if we sign more FA pitchers we'll perpetually be in the same boat until we can get out from underneath those contracts or DM/MA are gone. Signing Braun was a good start, extending Fielder isn't a bad idea if he'll do it, I'm down with extending Yo as well.... however spending money on FA pitching, especially bullpen types but starting pitching as well ties significant sums of money into players who are in the bottom half of the team's overall talent pool on the 25 man roster, it's not money well spent. Spending money doesn't make a franchise successful, but spending money wisely can.

 

The Rockies had/have good young players and payroll flexibility though the payroll has climbing since they bottomed out in 2006... we have our share of good young players as well, unfortunately they are approaching FA and mixed in with a bunch of high priced veterans so we have very little payroll flexibility. It also unfortunate that we bottomed out in 2004 payroll wise and have much less to show for the money we've spent than the Rockie's over that same time period. The 2 situations are completely dissimilar in just about every way possible.

[kramnoj]

The 2 situations are completely dissimilar in just about every way possible.

 

Yes, the situations are different, but it doesn't have much to do with markets, as originally said, and has more to do with team approach and where the teams are right now.

 

The Brewers are almost out of the big contracts that have weighed them down recently, which won't prevent them from signing Fielder if they think it's the right decision.

[jeffy]

The Brewers are almost out of the big contracts that have weighed them down recently, which won't prevent them from signing Fielder if they think it's the right decision.

 

If they sign Prince long term at $20+ million, that may become the next contract weighing them down. Prince is a great hitter, but I still have a hard time seeing him being worth 1/4 of the entire payroll.