Brewers want to lock up Fielder long-term

[sargennm]

I'm not exactly getting my hopes up, but SI's Jon Heyman tweeted this earlier today:

#brewers plan to try to lock up prince fielder this winter. dont put it past milwaukee (1 of 9 teams to draw 3 mil fans)

 

http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman/status/5891658493

 

I've been an advocate that you don't let talents like Fielder go via trade or Type A free agency because you can never get equal value for special players. With payroll flexibility of this year and the young pitching coming up, I think this would be a great move if they can actually get Prince and Boras to do an extension.

[burnzy24]

Thiat would be amazing, but with Boras, I'm not going to hold my breath. If they lock him up I would worry about our ability to add pitching through free-agency.

[sargennm]

An tweet from TH regarding this:

 

@Haudricourt Brewers GM Doug Melvin has said he won't address an extension for Prince Fielder until he fills current needs. Probably Jan. at earliest.

 

http://twitter.com/Haudricourt/status/5894268830

[brewmann04]

I think everyone would rather see that than Melvin Giving 3-4 year deals to the likes of Doug Davis or J Washburn.

I would rather see them deal with some 1 year deal with some pitchers and then wait till 2011 to make s splash with Fa Pitching.

[rluzinski]

How could you not get fair value trading Prince? He's a great hitter who plays average-at-best defense at the easiest position. He'll get paid something like $25 mil over the next 2 years, when he's worth something like $40. That's maybe a $15 mil surplus. A couple average pre-arby guys are worth that. Now, if you are making a serious push in 2010 or 11, no way you want to do that.

 

If Price will give a home town discount great. Otherwise you are just paying the free agent rate for wins. Big deal.

[Patrick425]

I grew up watching Yount, Molitor, and Ganter be mainstays in the Brewer's lineup. No matter what else changed, you always knew those guys would be in the lineup year after year. I would love to see a similar situation with Braun and Fielder instead of having a completely new team every 5 years.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think everyone would rather see that than Melvin Giving 3-4 year deals to the likes of Doug Davis or J Washburn.

I would rather see them deal with some 1 year deal with some pitchers and then wait till 2011 to make s splash with Fa Pitching.

The two aren't mutually exclusive. They need pitching in 2010 and 2011. Fielder is under their control those two years. Pitchers like Davis and Washburn aren't going to get more than 2 years and an option (at likely fairly reasonable dollars) in this market of financial uncertainty for a lot of teams. The Brewers have already cleared close to $20 million. They could clear more if they chose. This is not the same market as in 06 when Suppan signed.

[sargennm]

Look at the big free agents to be that have been traded the past few years. Which one of those packages would you take for Prince in retrospect or would actually be worth it? I don't think small market teams can get fair value for guys like Prince because big market clubs basically say, "Fine, we'll wait until free agency and you can get a couple draft picks instead." Certainly you can get a trade that's close in "value" with pre-arby guys, but to me there's greater risk in those pre-arby types bombing than keeping - and paying - a proven performer like Fielder. How many of those parts would be upgrades over young players the Brewers will already have in those positions and how much of downgrade would there be at first losing Fielder?

[dadofandrew]

There's been a lot of extending Fielder talk after none until about 2 months ago. That's a good sign for Prince fans, to say the least.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Guys with the big bodies tend to start to decline badly in their early thirties. Obviously not a hard and fast rule, and obviously it's not a surprise. That being said, a 5-6 year deal (I'm assuming Fielder/Boras would settle for nothing less) would take him to age 31-32, and frankly, I would not want to see him extended beyond that, as he could potentially be unfit to play the field at all by that point.

 

Besides, if we trade him or let him walk at that time, by the time he's 31-32 he'll have compiled enough personal stats that when he goes into the hall, it'll be as a Brewer. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[monkeyman343434]

Look at the big free agents to be that have been traded the past few years. Which one of those packages would you take for Prince in retrospect or would actually be worth it? I don't think small market teams can get fair value for guys like Prince because big market clubs basically say, "Fine, we'll wait until free agency and you can get a couple draft picks instead." Certainly you can get a trade that's close in "value" with pre-arby guys, but to me there's greater risk in those pre-arby types bombing than keeping - and paying - a proven performer like Fielder. How many of those parts would be upgrades over young players the Brewers will already have in those positions and how much of downgrade would there be at first losing Fielder?

I would for sure take the package the Rangers got from the Braves for Teixeira, and that was at the deadline in '07, which would be similar if the Brewers dealt Prince at the deadline this year in terms of service time/free agency looming. I'd gladly take a similar package of Saltalamacchia, Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones

[sargennm]

That is a nice haul for Teixeira in retrospect, but Saltalmacchia was the centerpiece in that deal, and still hasn't produced in the majors yet - it's still really early and none of these guys have done anything yet. And that's kind of my point. I have confidence that the Brewers will continue to draft well and produce similar risk/reward minor league players. So why not lock up a guy that's a sure thing. And like RoCoBrewfan said, only do it until Fielder is 31 or 32 and let guys like Weeks, Hart and Hardy move on instead. Then fill their positions with your own young players.

 

If, like Teixeria, Fielder turns down a big fair-market contract extension, then I would be fine with a trade like this. But I wonder how likely getting this type of deal will be like this year or next considering even big market teams seem reluctant to give up their cheap young talent.

[rluzinski]

Look at the big free agents to be that have been traded the past few years. Which one of those packages would you take for Prince in retrospect or would actually be worth it? I don't think small market teams can get fair value for guys like Prince because big market clubs basically say, "Fine, we'll wait until free agency and you can get a couple draft picks instead." Certainly you can get a trade that's close in "value" with pre-arby guys, but to me there's greater risk in those pre-arby types bombing than keeping - and paying - a proven performer like Fielder. How many of those parts would be upgrades over young players the Brewers will already have in those positions and how much of downgrade would there be at first losing Fielder?

You seem to be contradicting yourself. On one hand, you say teams won't be willing to give up a couple of decent, pre arby guys. On the other, you say the Brewers should resign Prince because the prearby guys might not be worth it. I agree that projecting Prince's performance is a heck of a lot easier than a 24 year old that has shown promise in 600 MLB AB but it also means the prearby guys could also better than projected. It just depends on when you need the wins.

 

And as I tried to point out, Prince has a lot of surplus value but it isn't some crazy amount. He's getting paid $10 mil this year. If he has another monster year, he could very well but $20 mil in his final year of arbitration. Either way, I'm thinking it's around $15 mil in surplus value. To get that from 2 guys who are maybe 4 years from free agency isn't hard at all. They barely have to be average. The fans will get pissed, sure, but they will if can't resign him anyway. And I still find it unlikely that the Brewers can offer fair market value for Prince.

 

So why not lock up a guy that's a sure thing.

 

If the Brewers have to pay Prince $20 mil for the next 7 years, there is no sure thing that he'll be worth it in 2016. Huge amount of risk in long term deals. Compare that to the risk of a player developing like he's projected to and it's a horse a piece. That's why both teams traded, they felt the risks and rewards were roughly equal.

[endaround]

Yes but that value is spread over 4 years and not 2.

[sargennm]

You seem to be contradicting yourself. On one hand, you say teams won't be willing to give up a couple of decent, pre arby guys. On the other, you say the Brewers should resign Prince because the prearby guys might not be worth it. I agree that projecting Prince's performance is a heck of a lot easier than a 24 year old that has shown promise in 600 MLB AB but it also means the prearby guys could also better than projected. It just depends on when you need the wins.

I don't think those opinions are mutually exclusive, they both support my idea that it's better to sign Prince to a fair market contract than trade him for unknown quantities. 1. I think teams are less likely than they were to get rid of young guys now than they were even in 2007, so I think a trade package like what the Rangers got is unrealistic. 2. Even if you could get a package like that, I don't think it's fair value. I don't think it's worth trading a known top-tier commodity whose projectable value doesn't have much variation in it for a couple players who add up to the same value and have a lot more variation in their projections.

 

I respect your view. I think you make a good case. I don't agree.

[owbc]

Great to hear this news. The best time to lock him up is now before he starts getting tempted by the free agent market in a few years. I am not optimistic about their chances (especially if we offer what most people propose on here), but if they are willing to make Prince one of the highest paid players in baseball (which he deserves), then I say go for it.

[sheethead]

I don't think small market teams can get fair value for guys like Prince because big market clubs basically say, "Fine, we'll wait until free agency and you can get a couple draft picks instead."

 

This is the problem... big market teams can just buy at free agency without having to worry about whether that player will produce a surplus value, in a sense driving up the fair value of free agents. Small market teams have to weigh what they believe to be fair value and whether they can get that out of two unproven, hopefully average players. The scales are not balanced, therefore what Prince Fielder is worth to one team is not the same as he is worth to another. Sadly, this means that Price Fielder is not worth as much to the Brewers as he will be to the Red Sox, Angels or wherever he may end up. When you can say that two average players will get you equal value to one Prince Fielder, I get sad. It just doesn't seem possible. Good thing we have places to go to tell us that http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

 

Edit: 6 yr/$130 million (even though that alienates Ryan Braun)

[fondybrewfan]

Wouldn't it make sense for Boras & Fielder to look at only a 3-4 year deal so Fielder can get his last mega contract when he is still peaking?

 

Yeah he could look for a 6-7 year contract after 2011 when he is a FA, but that likely would be his last big contract if he does indeed see some wear and tear due to his weight.

 

Why not sign a 4 year extension at say $80M and then have the ability after that to go into FA and sign the 6 year $150M deal? He would probably be better off doing that than finishing out his time in Milwaukee making $10.5M this year and maybe $16M next year and then signing the 6 year/$150M after that.

 

Of course if Boras and Fielder feel he can be a productive player going well into his 30's than my strategy wouldn't be in his best interest.

[dlk9s]

Edit: 6 yr/$130 million (even though that alienates Ryan Braun)

I don't think a huge contract for Fielder is going to hurt Braun's feelings. He's a smart guy. He knew he was potentially sacrificing money in exchange for security.

[joepepsi]

The fans will get pissed, sure, but they will if can't resign him anyway. And I still find it unlikely that the Brewers can offer fair market value for Prince.

Winning cures everything. The Mariners won 91 games with ARod, let him go, then won 116 the next year. The A's won 102 games with Giambi, 103 the next year without him. I grew up an Orioles fan. They had a winning season every year from 1968-1984. While they were able to hold onto some players for entire careers, they also constantly shuffled players in and out, and retooled every few years.

 

My point is, if you build a winning organization, then the fans won't leave when a favorite player leaves. If an organization is solid, stays competitive, they'll build the fans' trust.

[rluzinski]

Yes but that value is spread over 4 years and not 2.

 

I pointed that out in my original post. If the Brewers are going for it in the next two years, even if they can get equal value long term, they should just keep Prince. Most trades are fairly equal at the time they are made. One team is often just trying to concentrate their value for the upcoming season, while another team might be deferring it or spreading it out.

[TheCrew07]

I'll happily be wrong about Prince never signing here long term if it actually happens. Until then I prefer to believe that he'll seek the biggest money he can find like most other FAs, he really has no incentive to sign a deal now. He got paid decently last season, gets paid even better next year, and the year after that is his final year in Milwaukee where he could make ManRam money in the right situation.

[JoeHova]

If [Prince] will give a home town discount great. Otherwise you are just paying the free agent rate for wins. Big deal.

It would be a big deal for the Brewers, who have failed miserably at paying the "free agent rate" for wins. Among the guys Melvin has signed as a major league free agent only Cameron has been worth his contract (not even Hoffman made it, if you buy fangraphs. He missed out on earning his money by $100,000).

[joepepsi]

If [Prince] will give a home town discount great. Otherwise you are just paying the free agent rate for wins. Big deal.

It would be a big deal for the Brewers, who have failed miserably at paying the "free agent rate" for wins. Among the guys Melvin has signed as a major league free agent only Cameron has been worth his contract (not even Hoffman made it, if you buy fangraphs. He missed out on earning his money by $100,000).

Yeah, but JJ Hardy was worth $22 million so they got that going for 'em. Which is good.

[JoeHova]

Yeah, but JJ Hardy was worth $22 million so they got that going for 'em. Which is good.

I'm not sure what you are implying. Regardless of what metric or argument you use, I don't think it can be argued that Suppan, Looper, Riske, Gagne, etc. were worth the money they got. I guess Counsell was, but almost anybody can outperform a small contract like he got.