Beltre....

[razzzorsharp]

Anyone think that we should go after him? Last year he was pretty good but he is still young and his celing is high. We could dump some salary with maybe Koskie and Jenkins (Ibanez or Ichiro to center) and a prospect for him.

[trwi7]

No, he had one good year (contract year surprise, surprise) and cashed in big time. I wouldn't trade anyone on our roster for him.

[fleehaw]

I guess it would all depend on what was given up. Beltre & $$$$ for Jenkins & Koskie might be worth the gamble. I think Beltre had a pretty nice second half last year. Doesn't he also play a decent 3B. Also, I'd imagine that his #s would improve by playing 1/2 his games at Miller Park.

 

The drawback is that he's signed thru '09 at about $11M per and has a limited no trade clause (don't know if the Brewers are one of the 8 teams).

[AJAY]

Beltre strikes me as the type of guy who could thrive with a change of scenery. His hitting style seems perfect for Miller Park too.

 

If I were Doug Melvin, I would explore it.

 

EDIT: Acquiring Beltre would also solve the problem with Ryan Braun and his defense. They could move Braun to left field. The outfield of the future would be Hall, Braun, and Hart.

 

I like it.

[TooLiveBrew]

I like that, too, AJ. Here's where I really think Davis's trade value comes into play. Being able to send Davis, Koskie, & Jenkins/Clark/Mench is almost certain to land Beltre. Even though Beltre isn't the OBP machine the lineup so desperately needs, his O combined with steady D (and the fact that he's 28 on Opening Day 2007) makes up for any lack in OBP. Even if he doesn't hit for a high BA, Beltre still drives in runs (.240 avg & 80 RBI in 2003, 87 RBI in 2005, & 89 in 2006). He's a proven run producer just into his MLB prime, and his D is, at worst, a neutral factor

[princeginterhallhelms04]

When Beltre put up those out of the world numbers i said it was too good to be true. We don't need him and i would not trade for him. Give me Koskie over him any day!

[endaround]

Umm why are we giving up Davis to take on a bad contract?

[pogokat]

if beltre's a "proven-run producer," then why isn't jenkins?

 

beltre's not very good..and hes absurdly expensive..

 

i wouldnt trde davis for him in a million years...in face, if he was offered up for nothing, i'd probably say no..

[TooLiveBrew]

Jenkins certainly is a proven run producer, but plays the OF, where the Crew has a surplus of players, and a nice starting OF if Dave Roberts is signed, which doesn't include Jenks. Additionally, Jenks has what is for us a big contract, and his best years are most likely behind him.

 

I didn't at first consider Beltre's contract. But moving Davis & Jenkins frees up a lot of space. I know I don't have the perfect answer, but after another year of mediocrity with the pieces we have, it's time to mix things up and take some risks.

[trwi7]

Quote:

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But moving Davis & Jenkins frees up a lot of space.

---

 

It doesn't if we move those two for Beltre. Jenkins makes $7M next year and Davis will most likely make $5-6M. For a total of $12-13M for one year. Beltre makes $11.5M in 2007, $12M in 2008 and $12M in 2009.

 

Beltre only had a .793 OPS this year, Jenkins .791. Beltre's career OPS is .785, Jenkins .849. Sorry no Beltre he is in no way worth his contract.

 

And Koskie is better too. He had an .833 OPS last year before he got hurt and has a career .825 OPS and will cost us only $2M.

[sbrylski]

Beltre should have little to no trade value right now, or at least similar to Jenkins. A Jenkins for Beltre and $9 million trade would make sense to me.

 

He's had one amazing year out of 9 bad ones. (Though he was quite young for the first couple.)

[AJAY]

When you look at Beltre's stats, how much do you have to consider that Beltre played his home games in Dodgers Stadium and Safeco Field. Both are considered lousy parks for hitters.

 

Does anyone know of any statistical adjustment that takes into account park factors?

[sbrylski]

OPS+ is adjusted for park factors, I believe, and Beltre posted a 90 and 108 the last two years after his big 163 in '04. His career OPS+ is 106.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't know specifically of Beltre's stats, but ESPN has the 2006 Park Factors ranking Dodger Stadium at 10 out of 30 (1.046), while SAFECO is 29th (.881).

 

sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

[UWRyan428]

I would compare Beltre to Ensberg...but I'd take Ensberg everyday. That said, I'd stick with Koskie until it becomes evident that the minors can no longer suppress Braun, which is looking more and more like it will be soon.

[igor67]

I was rather skeptical of the notion at first, but under the right parameters there is some merit. As others have mentioned OPS wise Safeco really hurts his numbers, and Dodger stadium didn't do a lot either. Second point he's only 27. And last I knew he was a plus defender. Koskie plus Jenkins gets salaries close. I think we'd be better off trying to maybe throw in a swap of closer Turnbow for Putz in as well and to help compensate for the talent gap on our end then we are really getting a benefit from the trade

[fleehaw]

Igor,

 

I like that idea. Jenkins, Koskie, Tbow & cash for Beltre & Putz.

[igor67]

Just wanted to elaborate a little bit on the idea. Putz isn't the end all be all to a deal, but the larger point is that this deal should include some other piece, as to a large extent trading for Beltre is just shuffling chairs around we need something else for a deal to make sense. Personally, I like how this deal arranges the team. Beltre, Hall, Week, Fielder on the infield. Hardy can try and get reps in at AAA if that's what he needs. OF putting Braun in LF, Giving a straight platoon in CF to Gross and Clark gives us above average offense out of that position, and Hart in RF. Gwynn or Krynzel can then serve a useful purpose as a 5th OF for defense on this team. Mench can be dealt or let go as not needed.

[reillymcshane]

I'd look at the Beltre idea like this -- if he was a FA that required no compensation, what would he be worth?

 

Beltre is:

 

- an above average defender

- a workhorse - 156 games or more for 5 straight years

- still young - 27

- a guy who should hit you 20-25 HR

- might benefit greatly from a change of scenery

 

I'd estimate he'd get in the $8-9 million range. Thus, he is overpaid by about $3-4 million a year - or a total of up to $12 million.

 

So, let's take what we have extra of - an OF in Jenkins - send him and his $7.5 million to Seattle. Let's either get another $4-5 million back - or perhaps make them take on salary (T-Bow is making $5.1 million over the next two years, or perhaps Clark and Koskie - that's $5.8 million).

 

We'd have our 3B for the next three years. We'd be able to move Braun to LF for this season, so he can learn the position at AAA. We'd add speed, defense and reliability at the position. I don't expect him to his 40 HR - or even 30 - but if he can get 25 a year and get that .800 OPS, I'd feel he's a quality addition.

 

My opinion.

[pogokat]

I'd take Beltre in that situation, but it would be tough to get him for that...

 

i'm not sure the mariners ae trying to dump him...think they are just shopping him...

[trwi7]

Good job reilly. The question is are the Mariners going to want something more than Jenkins, Clark, Turnbow or Koskie for him for the reasons you stated?

 

He still is young as you stated and he didn't put up terrible numbers this year and still is a good defender.

[Ennder]

Keep in mind Beltre is one of the better defensive 3B in baseball. I recently read an article by tango that showed that his value is as high as Aramis's when you take into acount that ramirez is a terrible baserunner and terrible defensively.

 

Then again Jenkins is underrated too since people ignore the fact that he's actually a good baserunner and a good fielder.

[igor67]

Well on the other side Koskie was an awesome defender too, though the health issue is relevant there. The nubers also support that Weeks mad a pretty substantial improvement in his defense after the first couple of months. just because the team was so bad last year I think they are going to be quite a bit better this year, and it might even be the biggest difference in perfromance.

[reillymcshane]

Quote:

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The question is are the Mariners going to want something more than Jenkins, Clark, Turnbow or Koskie for him for the reasons you stated?

---

 

Yes, you're correct. Salary relief is nice, but it has to make sense for them. I'd say starting pitching is their greatest need. They lost Meche and Moyer is finally gone. Piernero was terrible last year. Perhaps give them Zach Jackson.

 

They could move Ichiro to CF, leave Ibanez in left and put Jenks in right. Maybe we could score Jeremy Reed back if the team feels he could help (not sure I want him, but I thought he was going to be a quality player when he first came up). I feel like they're not getting much, but it does free up a lot of salary post 2007, and give them a young pitcher they need.

 

Who would play 3B for the Mariners is another question. Perhaps send them Koskie. Maybe they have a young player ready.

 

All just silly speculation.

[fleehaw]

A little bit more of the silly speculation.

 

Dealing with the Mariners does make some sense. I would target Beltre, Putz, and Adam Jones.

 

Beltre is solid defensively, put up good numbers in the 2 hole last year, and ought to improve offensively at Miller Park. Also, I view his 3 years left on his contract as a plus. Yes, he's overpaid, however, Braun is no sure thing to stick at 3B, and Hall appears destine for the OF. 3B are a bit like left-handed pitching, they're always in demand. If Braun prooves he can handle 3B, then Beltre should be able to be moved, and if Braun can't handle the hot corner, Beltre is under contract thru '09.

 

Putz would be the key to the deal. He was an effective closer last year and this is his first year of arbitration. He could set up for Cordero this year, and take over for him next year. Cordero could be traded at the deadline (like Lee) or offered arbitration and draft picks collected (like Graffinino?). All of those extra high draft picks would certainly be beneficial.

 

Jones is basically Gwynn, but right-handed and with some pop. He could platoon with Gross/Gwynn in '07 and see what shakes out. With Ichiro probably moving to CF, he could be available. Jeremy Reed is also an option, but I would go with Jones because he bats righty.

 

The Brewers would most likely have to take on all of Beltre's salary to get Putz, but they do have some $$$ to spend. A package of Jenkins, Koskie, Turnbow, Jackson/Hammond, & Anderson may get it done, or at least a starting point.

 

It addreses all of the Brewers needs, CF, 3B (assuming Hall is in LF), and the bullpen.

 

Thoughts?