Carl Pavano

[endaround]

Lots of people talk about how Nolasco outperformed his ERA and given the Marlins consistent need to make Loria oodles of money he is likely available. Very few talk about how Pavano outpitched his ERA last season. He has an FIP of 4.00 in the AL. Some comparisons:

 

Nolasco: 3.35

Jackson: 4.28

Wolf 3.96

Davis: 4.84

Washburn 4.58 (after 3 straight years in the 4.7s)

Harden 4.35 (due to a likely fluke in HR rate)

 

Pavano would be one of the better buys in the $6-8m a year range

[dadofandrew]

Pavano fits into that second tier, who are older than you'd like and will make more money than you'd like.

[Raw Biz]

I don't know if I would want to spend what it would take to sign Pavano. He will be 34 and prior to last year, hadn't made 30 starts since 2004. I would take him at about $4 million or so but I doubt that would be enough.

[twobrewers]

A writer at SI.com had his "Best Fit" as the Brewers.

 

I could live with Pavano, Wolf and Mulder. Seems like a that would solidify our rotation pretty good.

[Hofbraunhaus]

According to Nick Cafardo, the Brewers are showing a lot of interest in Carl Pavano.

[NievesNoNO]

dadofandrew[/b]]Pavano fits into that second tier, who are older than you'd like and will make more money than you'd like.

Agreed, I'd even drop him to a third tier type. I'd hate to pay for his one average year in the last five. Not much different than Looper really. Fine for about 4-5 million for 1 year as a back end of the rotation guy. I don't think that will be the asking price though and I hope it's not us that overpays for him.

[endaround]

He wasn't average, he was great.

[dadofandrew]

That Globe article refers to him as a #3 AL guy. That's higher than I'd put him, but he did have a very good '09.

[Ennder]

As long as the deal is short I'd be ok with it.

[NievesNoNO]

endaround[/b]]He wasn't average, he was great.

If your talking about 2004, yes he was great and I guess that falls in the 5 years of my original statement. If your talking last year, he was far from great. Good yes, and probably an upgrade for this team. I won't get too excited one way or another as these are just rumors and there's a lot off-season left, but I wish I heard some slightly more intriguing guys linked to the Brewers.

[MNBrew]

....but I wish I heard some slightly more intriguing guys linked to the Brewers.

This is speculation just like so much else that's out there, but so far we've heard speculation of the Brewers coomunication with or interest in...

 

Carl Pavano

John Smoltz

John Lackey

Doug Davis

Jarrod Washburn

Roy Halladay

Derek Lowe

Javiez Vazquez

Mark Mulder

Edwin Jackson

Ben Sheets

Randy Wolf

 

Given the market, that's a relatively respectable list. I'd love to see them going hard after Josh Johnson of the Marlins, too.

 

On this thread's topic of Pavano, the guy pitched pretty darn well once he became a Twin. He'd certainly be an improvement over how Suppan & Looper & Bush pitched last year.

[rousieboy]

Mulder, Pavano, and even Smoltzy at this point have to receive some incentive based deals...I would like the Brewers to be one of those teams...decent base and escalators.

[JohnBriggs12]

Sure, lets sign Pavano and bring back Looper, then we'd have the two guys that led their respective leagues in earned runs allowed. Just say no to guys who surrender 235 hits in 199 innings. Pavano gives up a lot of hits because he's very, very hittable. The Brewers tatooed him in June.

 

FIP is the pitcher's equivalent of BABIP. It's fallacy is it assumes the pitcher has no control over where (or how hard) a ball is hit that doesn't leave the park, the same as BABIP assumes no control by the hitter over how hard or where he hits a ball that stays in the park.

 

The problem of course is that some pitches are easier to center on the bat than others, and over the course of a full season, those pitcher that throw more fat pitches are going to give up more hits.

[Oldcity]

First, that's not a ton of hits for 199 innings. Second, hits are dependent on team defense. He had an outstanding k/bb ratio of 3.77. His home rate was 1.13 per nine innings (You mentioned Looper; he allowed 1.8 homers per nine!) I had not realized he pitched that well. I'd definitely be pleased if they got him for a two year deal.

[JohnBriggs12]

First, that's not a ton of hits for 199 innings. Second, hits are dependent on team defense. He had an outstanding k/bb ratio of 3.77. His home rate was 1.13 per nine innings (You mentioned Looper; he allowed 1.8 homers per nine!) I had not realized he pitched that well. I'd definitely be pleased if they got him for a two year deal.

It's not a ton? Compared to what? It was a .294 BAA. That might not seem bad compared to Suppan's .309 BAA and Parra's .306 BAA, but it's worse than Looper's .289 and the same as Bush's .294. and it's nowhere near as good as many FA (Washburn: .243: Davis .266; Pineiro .268, Marquis .267 or even Penny .278 or Garland .282) Your standards have obviously been lowered by watching the Brewer staff. Pavano's HR allowed rate is better than Looper but it's not great either. It's about average.

 

Hits are dependent on defense? So the Brewer defense played better when Gallardo (a .219 BAA) pitched? No, hits are dependent on hitters for the most part getting good wood on the ball and hitting it hard enough so that the defense can't get to it. Generally guys that give up lots of hits aren't very good. Pavano's K/BB ratio is fine, but it's mostly based on a very low walk total, not a particularly high K total.

 

A very low walk rate isn't always good. In certain situations walks are preferable. It's also a sign he could be getting too much of the plate or that guys more often than not are putting balls in play early in counts.

[Invader3K]

Pavano would probably be an upgrade over Looper. I would just hope he isn't the biggest acquisition of the off-season.

[Oldcity]

I didn't mean hits are solely dependent on defense, but defense is a pretty big factor. Your example of Washburn's low BAA is certainly due in large to Seattle's great defense. I have to disagree with your comment about walks. There are maybe three or four times in a season in which a walk can be viewed as a "good thing." A low walk rate for any pitcher is a good thing.

[HiAndTight]

I didn't mean hits are solely dependent on defense, but defense is a pretty big factor. Your example of Washburn's low BAA is certainly due in large to Seattle's great defense. I have to disagree with your comment about walks. There are maybe three or four times in a season in which a walk can be viewed as a "good thing." A low walk rate for any pitcher is a good thing.

For starters I really disagree that BABIP and FIP are meaningless stats. All you have to do is watch baseball to see how much luck there is for hitters and pitchers and how defenses impact pitchers.

 

I love Weeks, but how many times has he extended innings simply by being unable to turn a easy DP ball? Or any number of things, so to dismiss those on their face is crazy to me.

 

 

I do agree with him about the walks however. Especially Dave Bush in his first 3 years in Milwaukee and often times Ben Sheets. Good walk rates are low, grooving a fastball in a 3-1 count because you refuse to allow any walks are not.

[crewcrazy]

Given the choice between Pavano and Davis/Washburn, I'd probably take a chance on Pavano. I wouldn't count on him to be anything other than the #5, though, and would prefer if they could get him on a similar deal to what they gave Looper last year -- something that gives them the option of opting out after one year just in case things go horribly wrong.

[And That]

It's buried in the link a little - according to Rosenthal, Pavano is going to accept arbitration from the Twins. The thin pitching market gets a little thinner.

[Oldcity]

Wow, that's a huge bummer. I really wanted the Brewers to sign him.