The $60 million dollar challenge. Build the '07 Brewers.

[colbyjack]

All of these projections are pretty encouraging, if the team plans to have a $60M payroll next year. The team definitely should have some money to play with this offseason, whether it's signing a FA or possibly acquiring a contract or two that some other team deems to be too much for them to handle.

 

As for Schmidt, how many power pitchers like him continue to have success into their mid and late-30s? I like Schmidt, and think he would make a lot of sense for the Brewers and as rluzinski noted, he (with good health) would help make the Brewers starting rotation one of the best in the entire NL.

[trwi7]

Okay I'll try this without Soriano (much to the relief of many of you) so I hope you guys like it.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Lineup:

 

1. Hart $329,000

2. Hardy $355,000

3. Fielder $329,000

4. Hall $3,000,000

5. Koskie $2,000,000

6. Weeks $500,000

7. Jenkins $7,000,000

8. Miller $2,250,000

 

Bench:

 

Cirillo $900,000

Clark $3,800,000

Rivera $327,000

*Graffanino $2,000,000

Gross $355,000

 

Starting Pitchers:

 

1. Sheets $10,000,000

**2. Schmidt $13,000,000

3. Capuano $2,500,000

4. Bush $352,000

5. Villanueva $327,000

 

Bullpen:

 

Cordero $5,000,000

Turnbow $2,300,000

Wise $1,000,000

Capellan $330,000

Shouse $1,000,000

Sarfate $327,000

***Borowski $1,500,000

 

*re-signed 2 years $4,500,000

**signed 4 years $52,000,000

***signed 2 years $3,500,000

 

TOTAL PAYROLL: $60,781,000

 

Now if there's a lefty pitcher we could put Clark in LF and move Hart to RF. Otherwise the outfield would be Hart LF, Hall CF, Jenkins RF.

 

FLAME AWAY!

[laserbomb]

I haven't read a lot of this thread but the idea got me thinking and playing around a little.

 

I don't like to speculate on trades or acquisitions because although I saw a lot of games this season, I haven't soaked up a lot of stats for players around the league as a whole. Beyond that it's only names, and really easy to be led astray by them.

 

It's a really limiting ground rule, but with that in place, I looked at what we have.

 

The outfield's the only thing I want to mention before dropping the big list. First, I've been a Jenkins apologist, but I underestimated Gross for most of the year until Yost mentioned his red-line/blue-line chart in August and Gross was something like one of two guys with a red line for the month. I disliked him because he's not much better than average defensively, for a while he was getting time while I wanted to see Hart play, and I remembered him cooling off after a torrid pinch-hitting start.

 

I don't want to get too high on him because even though he compared pretty well to Jenkins (especially with salary considered), he only had half the at-bats. But really, Gross was proving it before Hart was, and it's kind of quiet on him now. Maybe because, like Jenkins, he had a tough time with lefties, who wants to get excited about that? But the cost and their similarities leads me to believe Jenkins is on his way out, even though it's not my first choice, partly because he'll likely take $3,500,000 with him. I don't like thinking about it like paying Gross almost $4M, but it's better than paying $7 and a half million to him and a better, more proven twin with the same key weakness.

 

Next point isn't quite logical, it runs against everything we've seen. Yost seems to hate platoons, and it's possible a fair amount of lineup decisions were based on being able to maintain "we look at the numbers" instead of admitting to a platoon, answering questions about it, and putting a player like Jenkins through those questions. A lot of people have written Mench off already but his value couldn't be much lower for a corner OF in his prime, and he picks up where Gross leaves off anyway. The lefty hitter in a platoon deserves to take some flak as the one who can get the job done significantly less than half the time, so haters have my blessing but I think it's better to keep him than give him walking papers. I imagine if these two guys are around, Yost would avoid the clear platoon, give Mench first shot but without the long, long leash, and give Gross an increasing number of games until it approximates the closest thing to a platoon Ned Yost will dare approach.

 

For these purposes, it was very convenient to trade Clark, although it's against my rules to speculate on the return.

 

Nix as default 5th OF, because I want 13 on offense and we'd rather Gwynn reach for the ceiling in AAA, even though that speed off the bench would be appealing. Along with that I don't want to write Krynzel off yet - appealing speed and defense off the bench, poor hitting? That sounds like a luxury that a 13th man on offense can provide for a playoff team, and maybe Nix could share Gwynn's privilege of working in Nashville to maximize potential and results. I wasn't impressed with Anderson but haven't seen a lot of him, but at least Krynzel could have a niche beyond "doesn't do anything very well". I don't think Anderson's passed him. All that said, there's a good enough chance Kryznel's burned his last chance that I'll leave Nix here.

 

All right: taking for granted that we'll lose a couple extra outfielders and keep the relative best pieces is a serious drawback to this method. But I wanted to see what we've got and what's left over. All other comments will follow the list.

 

C - Miller: $2,250,000

1B - Fielder: $400,000

2B - Weeks: $550,000

SS - Hardy: $350,000

3B - Koskie: $2,000,000

LF - Gross: $350,000

CF - Hall: $4,800,000

RF - Hart: $350,000

2nd C - Rivera: $350,000

UTIF - Cirillo: $1,000,000

LH OF - Mench: $3,800,000

UTIF - open

UTOF - Nix: $350,000

 

Offense subtotal: $16,750,000 with one open spot

See ya, Jenkins: $3,500,000 eaten

Offense total: $20,250,000

 

SP1 - Sheets: $10,000,000

SP2 - Capuano: $5,200,000

SP3 - Bush: $400,000

SP4 - Davis: $6,000,000

SP5 - Villanueva: $350,000

LP/SP6 - open

LR - open

MR - Sarfate: $350,000

MR - Shouse: $1,400,000

SU - Wise: $1,000,000

SU - Capellan: $350,000

CL - Cordero: $5,400,000

 

Pitching subtotal: $30,450,000 with two open spots

It was fun while it lasted, Turnbow: $2,300,000

Pitching total: $32,750,000

 

Grand total: $53,000,000

 

 

As I added the totals, I had second thoughts about the reasons behind trading a good hitter and defender, and paying half his salary to leave. Someone else could look at us like we were looking at Toronto with Koskie. Gross is probably overqualified for the title of fifth OF, but hey, learn to hit lefties. Also, I don't want to completely disregard Mench's second half, and a continuation would project as a poor fourth OF. Anyway, enough about the outfield.

 

You can see I took the optimistic track with the infield, partly because my guidelines dictated it and I couldn't go out and get a replacement, but also because I'm hopeful that another five months will be enough for Weeks, Hardy and Koskie. I don't see Graffanino coming back to this situation even with all the uncertainty, and it seems Cirillo will be happy to. There's a utility spot empty, and maybe speed and versatile defense with a small stick could hide here, although that's less likely knowing Cirillo couldn't play every day in the event of serious injuries. Really, that fact should slot Cirillo into the second UTIF position, not that teams ever label backups like that.

 

One other point on offense, Hall's salary is unrealistic. He won't get that much in arbitration but would sign for more in an extension. I couldn't make up my mind, and am partly just hoping they can lock him up. Considering how unpredictable bullpen arms are, nothing would make me happier this winter than an extension for Hall. Finally, even eating half of Jenkins and taking a chance on Mench bouncing back, this is a $20M offense. I'm really impressed by that.

 

The salary for Capuano's also higher than arbitration would allow, and I'm gunning for another extension here. I believe Davis is better than anyone we'd get at a comparable price, and that's why he'll make outstanding trade bait if the younger pitchers can pound the door down and push him out. Ohka walked.

 

Can't make guesses about two potential long relievers. The relievers beside Cordero seem like okay guesses, although I'd like to see Shouse used less next year. He was the best thing going at times but that little drop-off at the end was inevitable.

 

I was optimistic about the offense, but if I had to guess I don't think Turnbow will straighten it out, and with a demand for performance I had to bring the total sunk cost up near six million. I thought Maddux was supposed to be the wizard! We're all hoping an offseason away will give him the flow back but I didn't want to play it best-case across the board and this was one way to compensate.

 

 

$47M for 22 players plus $6M more to see two more go. Leaves a few spots to fill and definitely a few more to potentially upgrade, but $7-12M to play with assuming a $65M max.

 

 

All right, a little bit of couch GM work in closing: I don't like the Soriano idea without knowing there can be an acceptable return on the 4 other guys on their way out the door. I'd rather have Dunn than Soriano for the money but the same issues apply. I think Crawford is a less realistic possibility but I'd still give Dunn a small edge without having done any analysis or comparison whatsoever.

 

Schmidt comes to mind, if he steps in at #2, Capuano and Bush bump down a spot and Davis catchs a plane, that would be really exciting, maybe second for me behind an extension for Hall. I have a feeling it would negatively affect the ability to keep the younger Sheets and Capuano. Haven't looked into that either but it would be enough to walk away, and if there's that much money left over I'd like to look into keeping Cordero past this year. 266 ERA+? That'll do.

 

This may seem pretty weak given what I set out to do, but having roughly $50M committed (minus Mench) and a fair amount of flexibility to fix what's wrong is encouraging to me. Signings will likely seem pedestrian, at least without future hindsight, and the free agent crop may not be exciting for the most part but the big stuff will likely all go down via trades anyway.

[gebc1997]

Trade Jenkins to SF for Hennessey

 

Trade Clark, Eveland, and Hinton for Burrell and $5mil/yr

 

Trade Koskie and Davis for Ensberg

 

Sign G Maddux to a 1yr/$5mil deal

 

Resign Graffanino--2yrs/5 mil

 

Trade Mench to Anaheim for Mathis

 

Lineup

 

1. Weeks-2b

2. Hart-RF

3. Ensberg-3b

4. Fielder-1b

5. Hall-CF

6. Burrell-LF

7. Miller/Mathis-C

8. Hardy-SS

 

Bench

 

IF-Graffanino

IF-????

OF-Gross

OF-Gwynn

C-Mathis

 

Rotation

 

1. Sheets

2. Capuano

3. Maddux

4. Bush

5. Villanueva

 

Bullpen

 

1. Sarfate

2. Wise

3. Turnbow

4. Shouse

5. Capellan

6. Hennessey

7. Cordero

[trwi7]

All right I thought of a new idea. Most of you probably won't like it because it involves trading Bill Hall.

 

STARTERS:

 

1. Weeks $500K

2. Hardy $355K

3. Fielder $329K

4. Burrell $11M

5. Koskie $2M (if healthy)

6. Hart $329K

7. Jenkins $7M

8. Miller $2.25M

 

BENCH:

 

Gross $335K

Clark $3.8M

Rivera $327K

Cirillo $1M

Rottino $330K

 

STARTING PITCHERS:

 

1. Sheets 10M

2. Peavy $4.75M

3. Capuano $2.5M

4. Bush $352K

5. Davis $6M

 

BULLPEN:

 

Cordero $5M

Turnbow $2.3M

Wise $1M

Shouse $1M

Villanueva $327K

Sarfate $327K

Capellan $330K

 

TOTAL PAYROLL: $63,441,000

 

- Padres fans on another board are saying Peavy could be available in the offseason and Hall could be the right price for them.

 

- The Phillies probably wouldn't want Jenkins in a trade but we could give them one or two mid level prospects in exchange for Burrell and $5M since they seem to be desperate to get rid of him.

 

- Davis could be used as trade bait at the deadline if the Brewers want to give Villanueva a spot in the rotation.

 

Thoughts?

[Team Canada]

Padres fans on another board are saying Peavy could be available in the offseason and Hall could be the right price for them.

 

Maybe it's just me, but that seems crazy. Why would they want to get rid of Peavy?

[trwi7]

Quote:

---

Maybe it's just me, but that seems crazy. Why would they want to get rid of Peavy?

---

 

They don't think he "steps up" when the team needs him most (a lot like Alex Rodriguez.) At least that's what a couple of them said. I also know they need a 3rd baseman and Hall could be their's.

[trwi7]

Well we can forget that they don't want Hall for Peavy. I can't blame them Peavy is an ace, it was just my fantasy to get Peavy for Hall. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[monkeyman343434]

Starters

C Miller 2.25

1B Fielder 0.40

2B Weeks 0.75

SS Hall 3.00

3B Koskie 2.00

LF Gross (or CF) 0.40

CF Hart (or LF) 0.40

RF Jenkins 7.00

 

Bench

C M. Rivera - hopefully Closser makes it thru waivers to AAA 0.40

OF Clark 3.80

OF Mench 3.00

INF Cirillo 1.20

INF Hardy? / Graffy? / other veteran utility player 2.00

 

about $26.40 million?

 

Starting Pitching

Sheets 10.00

Capuano 2.50

Bush 0.40

Davis 6.00

Villanueva 0.40

 

$19.30

 

Relief Pitching

Cordero 5.40

Turnbow 2.30

Wise 1.00

Capellan 0.40

Shouse 1.00

Hendrickson 0.40

Veteran LR / 6th SP 3.00

 

$13.50

 

Total of $59.20, leaves some room for dealing and some minor free agent pickups to fill holes

 

If Koskie isn't able to return, either bring in another veteran to platoon with Cirillo at 3B, or if Braun actually looks like he's ready for playing 130 games in the majors this season, stick him at 3B

 

Start Hardy in AAA just to get him back to playing ball, hopefully he forces Doug to bring him back up to the big leagues soon

 

If Mench wants to play fulltime, Doug should be able to find a decent enough deal to bring back something useful in return, either a couple mid-level prospects or some bullpen help

 

Can start Clark and/or Mench for Gross and/or Jenkins vs LHP or an occasional day off for Hart to keep him fresh (once every two weeks, or a few more times if he is in a slump)

 

Fielder / Jenkins(RF) / Hall / Gross(LF) (if he plays mostly vs RHP) should be able to post .850 OPS

 

Weeks / 3B / Hart should be able to post an OPS in the .800 - .850 range

 

and Miller / Rivera combo should be able to post an OPS of .750+

 

C - Miller / Rivera 60/40 split

1B - Fielder

2B - Weeks

SS - Hall

3B - Koskie/Cirillo RH / LH platoon

OF (plus pinch hitting AB's)

Hart - 500 ABs

Jenkins 500 AB's (mostly all vs RHP - pinch hit when lefty starts)

Gross 400 AB's (mostly all vs RHP - pinch hit when lefty starts)

Mench 400 AB's (start verse all lefties, and some starts vs. righties, and pinch hitting duty as well)

Clark 400 AB's (start vs lefties, and pinch hitting role as well)

[rluzinski]

They don't think he "steps up" when the team needs him most

 

That's why fans don't make personel decisions. Peavy isn't going anywhere.

[tigerbrew]

Quote:

---

I can't blame them Peavy is an ace, it was just my fantasy to get Peavy for Hall. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

---

 

I'm still hoping my trade for A-Rod fantasy comes true http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[bucksman4]

I give people who've posted on the latter threads credit. They've done some thinking and seem to feel like myself and Doug Melvin in thinking many changes will be made this off-season. For the posters who run the same ol' lineup out there and same pitching staff and same bullpen guys as last year, I ask you the question: how have we improved? There was a reason we were well under .500 this season and please, don't say injuries. We had capable players who have had a lot of MLB experience playing everyday for us, so injuries are BS. Get some fresh blood in here...trade a Hardy or Eveland. Start making moves to get better. Not just complacent.

[monkeyman343434]

There was a reason we were well under .500 this season and please, don't say injuries.

So, I guess with the injuries of Sheets and Ohka didn't cause the brewers to lose any more games than if they would have been healthy? because jackson, eveland, hendrickson, et all, productions was just that great? i guess i must have been watching a different team than you were

[Team Canada]

They've done some thinking and seem to feel like myself and Doug Melvin

 

Are you speaking for him now?

 

 

And yes, a big reason WAS injuries. I don't know how you rationalize that away.

[bucksman4]

They've done some thinking and seem to feel like myself and Doug Melvin

 

Are you speaking for him now?

 

 

No. But I do read articles posted with his quotes in it. While I could not find the specific article (either in JS or Milwaukeebrewers.com) I recall Doug saying after the season that we'll have some changes to the lineup next season. For the fans who want more of the same which means more losses, they might not like this paraphrased line of Doug's.

[bucksman4]

And about injuries.....every club has injuries. It's not like Rickie Weeks was tearing the cover off the ball and playing extraordinary D. It's not like Ben Sheets wins every game he throws (far from it). And last I checked, Tomo Ohka wasn't a superstar. Now, if we've got a Derrek Lee, a Mark Prior/Kerry Wood go down with injuries, that would be a major hit to a team. We're talking about unproven, mediocre players and an overrated ace. Please!!!!

[Team Canada]

I recall Doug saying after the season that we'll have some changes to the lineup next season.

 

Is there a season that this *isn't* true? I'm not saying he didn't say whatever you think he did, but that's a whole lot different that "some changes."

 

 

every club has injuries. It's not like Rickie Weeks was tearing the cover off the ball and playing extraordinary D. It's not like Ben Sheets wins every game he throws (far from it). And last I checked, Tomo Ohka wasn't a superstar. Now, if we've got a Derrek Lee, a Mark Prior/Kerry Wood go down with injuries, that would be a major hit to a team. We're talking about unproven, mediocre players and an overrated ace. Please!!!!

 

 

I guess I pretty much disagree with every thing you wrote there.

[reillymcshane]

Address the bullpen in FA. I picked Weathers and Jamie Walker. Weathers is a righthander who had a 3.54 ERA in 73 innings. He's 37, so getting up there a bit, and has been a little more inconsistent. Still, he's a solid workhorse who pitched well in a pitcher's park last year. Walker is 35 and had 2.81 in 48 innings, and has had 5 straight years of 3.71 ERA or lower. And he's a lefty. Perhaps I underestimate their worth, in which case, you'd need to tack on a million or two.

 

Otherwise, Miller and Rivera platoon at catcher. Koskie/Cirillo are 3B platoon. Rottino moves into the job if Cirillo retires.

 

Resign Grafanino for $2.0, but I'm afraid he'll go somewhere else. Still, offer him arby if we can get a draft pick. I think he'll get more than this, but he's 35, so he isn't really that young, and despite his a good year in 2005, he didn't get many offers last off season. Just a little too old, etc. Most teams will likely see him as a utility guy. HOpefully, we can keep him.

 

Jenkins is my LF, Hart RF, Hall is CF. Gross will get 20 starts in CF and RF each, and still get 200 ABs - or more if Jenks falters. Clark will play against lefties if Jenks continues to swoon against them.

 

Go with Sheets, Cappy, Davis, Bush and Carlos V. in the rotation. Eveland, Jackson and Hendrickson get first crack if someone is hurt.

 

Add Weathers and Walker to the pen, resign Shouse. Bring back Cordero, Wise, Cappellan and Turnbow. Have Eveland, Sarfate, Hendrickson, Zumwalt waiting if there are any injuries or implosions, or if someone falters.

 

I've got 28 guys on the roster, assuming we have a couple of injuries, and the young guys have to play.

 

Key thing - let people play. Don't jerk around player, especially pitchers. If you put Carlos V. in the rotation, let him stay there for a while. Let him work it out. Don't yank him after 4 starts. Patience can work wonders with players.

 

Miller - 2.25

Rivera - 0.4

Prince - 0.4

Weeks - 0.5

Hardy - 0.4

Koskie - 2

Cirillo - 1

Graffanino - 2

Jenkins - 7

Hall - 2.8

Hart - .4

Clark - 3.8

Gross - 0.5

Gwynn - 0.38

Sheets - 10

Capuano - 2.5

Davis - 6

Bush - 0.5

Carlos V. - 0.38

Cordero - 5

Turnbow - 2.3

Wise - 1

Capellan - 0.4

Weathers - 1.5

Walker - 2.5

Shouse - 1

Eveland - 0.38

Sarfate - 0.38

Total - 57.67

 

Nothing sexy here. Just move Hall to CF. Add some experienced bullpen arms. Have some depth. If I underestimated prices, there's some wiggle room. Plus you have money to add something decent if the team is in the race.

 

And let's not forget you may have guys like Yo or Braun ready to go in 07 - perhaps not right away, but they would be inexpensive, potential impact players.

[rluzinski]

how have we improved? There was a reason we were well under .500 this season and please, don't say injuries.

 

A new trend around here seems tp be people asking questions but only allowing the answers they want to hear. Way to promote discussion.

[monkeyman343434]

How do you call Sheets and overrated ace, and bring up wood and prior and not say the same thing? ... wow.... you're exactly the type of guy that keeps me away from posting very much ... closed minded / know-it-all / better than everyone else

[yogallardo43]

I would offer a trade to the Reds to acquire LF Adam Dunn and C Jason LaRue. In return I would give them Jenkins and one of our top prospects, also Doug Davis.

 

Also sign Jason Schmidt

 

The new lineup

 

2B Weeks

RF Hart

LF Dunn

CF Hall

1B Fielder

C Larue

3B Koskie

SS Hardy

Pitchers Spot

 

Bench

Cirillo

Graffy

Miller

Mench

Gross

Gwynn

 

Pitching Rotation

Sheets

Schmidt

Capuano

Bush

Villanueva/Gallardo

 

Bullpen

Jackson

Wise

Turnbow

Sarfate

Shouse

Capellan

Cordero

 

This is right at or just above 60 million

 

Let me know what you think.

[Weirdos19]

Trade Jenks for any effective SD reliever. Meredith would be #1 on my list. We'll have to eat half of that salary.

 

Trade Hardy and Gross to KC for DeJesus. Solidifies CF for the future.

 

Trade DD to Minnesota for Kubel

 

Sign Schmidt at the before mentioned 4 yr/52 mil.

 

Offer Weathers 2yr/5mil. He'll sign.

 

C: Miller, Rivera

 

IF: Prince, Hall, Weeks, Koskie, Cirillo, FA

 

OF: Hart, DeJesus, Kubel, Gwynn, Clark

 

SP: Sheets, Cappy, Schmidt, Bush, Villanueva

 

RP: Coco, Weathers, Meredith, Turnbow, Shouse, Safarte, and Cappellan

[trwi7]

Quote:

---

LF Adam Dunn

---

 

Love the idea.

 

Quote:

---

C Jason LaRue.

---

 

Hate the idea. He's owed over $5M next year. Let Rivera and Miller be the catchers next year.

 

Quote:

---

Also sign Jason Schmidt

---

 

Love the idea.

 

Quote:

---

This is right at or just above 60 million

---

 

I came up with a estimated total of around $68 million.

[yogallardo43]

Well first off Larue had a horrendous year this year so dont judge him based on that. And if presented with that lineup i believe that the Brewers would be playing ball late into October.

[bucksman4]

every club has injuries. It's not like Rickie Weeks was tearing the cover off the ball and playing extraordinary D. It's not like Ben Sheets wins every game he throws (far from it). And last I checked, Tomo Ohka wasn't a superstar. Now, if we've got a Derrek Lee, a Mark Prior/Kerry Wood go down with injuries, that would be a major hit to a team. We're talking about unproven, mediocre players and an overrated ace. Please!!!!

 

 

I guess I pretty much disagree with every thing you wrote there.

 

 

So, having said what he said, Team Canada then must believe, for the record that:

 

1) Every club DOES NOT have injuries

2) Rickie Weeks WAS hitting the cover off the ball and playing extraordinary D

3) Ben Sheets wins every game he throws

4) Tomo Ohka is a superstar (hmm....interesting)

5) Mark Prior/ Wood/ Derrek Lee injuries weren't a major hit to the Cubs this year.

 

Glad to clear that one up for everyone because Team Canada did "disagree with everything I wrote."