The $60 million dollar challenge. Build the '07 Brewers.

[thefutureishere2006]

why padilla? why do we go after average when we already have average? if they do say he is a clubhouse cancer, why would we want him?

[JohnBriggs12]

sbrylski06 is right. Break in Villanueva in 07.

 

Sign a guy like Padilla or Meche for 3 years and you bascally lock up 4/5 ths of the rotation for at least 2 more years. Now if you would trade a Capuano for a big bat, then by all means those guys are options.

 

There's too much promise in the high minors otherwise and by the time that contract runs, Sheets will need a new contract and Bush and Capuano will be getting expensive.

 

They probably will bring in a veteran or two for some depth preferably one that could pitch long out of the pen or start. But more like a Helling type who is looking to resurrect something or an old guy who would take a one year deal (Maddux?).

[DHonks]

i just don't see how people are so down on Davis. Maybe it's just sbrylski06 and JohnBriggs12 who seem to think he's easily replaceable, but over the last 3 years he has this line in 103 starts (including espn.com's projections over the next two outings):

 

34-35 4.03 ERA 1.37 WHIP

 

532 K's and 597hits allowed are outstanding in 636 IP, but 272 BB is a few too many. And 59 homers is very good.

 

His WHIP is skewed by the 1.40 rate for this year. If he'd finally cut down on the walks by a mere 10%, then it's quite possible his ERA would drop to around 3.75-3.90 with a whip of around 1.2-1.3.

He averages roughly 6 innings per start.

 

So folks, what you have here is a durable lefty who has a fairly high strikeout rate, eats innings, and doesn't allow homers. The only chink in his armor is walks. That translates to roughly $7-8 million per season on the open market. In a down year, he could get $9 million per season. I can't fathom trading Davis, because in 2008 when Braun, Weeks, Hall, Hardy, Fielder, etc are slugging the ball out of the park, we might wish we had kept Davis. At the earliest, you consider trading Davis at the deadline next year, depending on how Villanueva, Eveland, Jackson, Gallardo, Dillard, Parra, et al are doing. But I don't understand trading Davis just to sign Padilla, Marquis, etc. It seems a consensus that people want Villanueva to get a crack at the 5th spot.

[sbrylski]

DHonks, just to clarify my position on Davis:

 

I think he is an average pitcher. He could be a good number 3 some years. But this year, he hasn't been any better than a number 5, and his stats are trending downward. His ERA and WHIP this year are 4.87 and 1.50. (Where did you see 1.40?)

 

I think he can bounce back. He could be a 3.80 ERA guy for us next year. He could also put up a 4.80+ again, or even worse. I just don't want to hand him a starting spot next year. I think we are financially cabable of adding depth to the rotation. Why not make him earn a spot in the rotation.

 

Sure, we might be okay with Sheets-Cappy-Bush-Davis-Villanueva next year, but when I look at that I see two question marks.

 

Also, nowhere did I say we should trade Doug Davis. That would be selling low, the wrong thing to do. I would project him to rebound a bit next year and be a solid #4 guy. But if we can, why not hedge our bets and create some competition and depth?

 

EDIT: I'm not saying we absolutely have to sign a starter either. I'm just presenting it as an option.

[paul253]

Kind of going in a new direction new, I have read from numerous sources that the White Sox may look to unload two or even three of their starters if they dont make the playoffs, which it looks as though they wont. Garcia, Vazquez, and Buerhle's names were thrown out, but I am sure Garland would be available too. I think we have what it takes to get any one of them, its just a matter of would we give it up. I dont know what the Sox are looking for. What do you think it would take to get one of them?

[clancyphile]

1. Swap Jenkins for a low-A/high-A prospect.

Move Jenkins to any team that will take him at his current price.

 

2. Decline to offer Mench arbitration.

Mench just doesn't fit with the Brewers, and if he is going to complain about not playing every day, I'd rather he do so elsewhere.

 

3. Resign Tomo Ohka and extend Doug Davis

Sharpie and Ohka each get deals of three years for $5 million per year.

 

4. Sign FA C Rod Barajas

Deal is for three years, $15 million, option for a fourth year at $6 million. With Damian Miller getting older, he's a good pickup. Good for 15-20 homers a year. If Miller takes the option, Rivera's in Nashville for the first callup due to an injury among catchers. If he doesn't, Rivera's the #2.

 

5. Extend Bill Hall

Deal is for six years, $39 million. Center field is his to lose.

 

6. Re-sign Cirillo and Graffanino

Cirillo and Graffanaino get two-year deals in the $3 million range to back up the infield.

 

7. Throw open the bullpen competition

Let some of the young starters (Sarfate, Eveland, Hendrickson, etc.) compete for bullpen slots.

 

8. Release Corey Koskie

Ryan Braun ain't waiting for July 2007. He'll be ready to be the opening day 3B.

 

2007 Brewers:

 

2b: Weeks

lf: Hart

1b: Fielder

cf: Hall

rf: Gross

3b: Braun

c: Barajas

ss: Hardy

Pitcher

Bench: Miller/Rivera, Rottino, Cirillo, Graffanino, Clark, Nix

Rotation: Sheets, Capuano, Davis, Bush, Okha

Bullpen: Codero, Sarfate, Turnbow, Eveland, Hendrickson, Wise

[pogokat]

Clancy, i give you credit: your lineup is probably the most realistic of ones i've seen posted...

 

while i don't actually think the brewers will sign barajas (check his obp---he's just mike rivera with more experience) or release Koskie, they might...and that's a whole lot more realistic than trading for arod and signing soriano

[clancyphile]

pogokat

 

The way I see it, the real problem in 2006 was injuries and some lengthy slumps. Yost tried to win now with the vets, and it didn't work out. Not his fault, but they thought they were ready.

 

I think the young players can do the job if they get the chance. Hart and Gross, had they played full-time, both would have about 25 homers each. Not bad for a couple of corner slots. I think Braun's good for 25 homers, too. Put Hall in center, and the outfield provides a minimum of 80 homers, and possibly as many 100.

 

Barajas has one thing over Rivera: He's proven he can slug in the .420-.450 range in the majors. If his OBP sticks around .300, that's not bad. And it's another 20 homers.

 

Figure that Fielder's good for 35, while Weeks and Hardy provide 15 each... call it about 170-190 homers from the starting lineup backing a healthy rotation. All that is left is to cobble together a bullpen, and 2006 aside, Bill Castro's had a very good track record.

[pogokat]

i think there will be bigger changes than predictd by you clancy, but i refuse to take a stab at what they will be...

 

i'm starting to doubt we will have ohka and graffinino back, and i think koskie may retire, or just be stuck injured all season so he can get his check...the brewers won't carry jenkins mench and clark next year, but i wouldnt be terribly surprised to see two of them back, even if it means the team isnt drastically improved...

 

its actually pretty hard to nail one specific place, other than the bullpen, that needs work, or that can be improved on with ease...

 

frankly, i think the brewers may have to trade prospects to actually improve the big club...and i'm just not sure they are gonna do this offseason...

 

this is a strange moment as a brewerfan...on paper, the brewers are ready to compete...but on the field, man they suck...so what to do?

[Invader3K]

Time to gut the team and start over, probably.

[rluzinski]

this is a strange moment as a brewerfan...on paper, the brewers are ready to compete...but on the field, man they suck...so what to do?

 

Not overreact and let the kids develop would be my vote.

[Team Canada]

8. Release Corey Koskie

 

I don't really understand why we would just throw the $2M down the drain. Either he's able to play, and thus earn at least a fraction of the money owed, or he's on the DL, or even retires. I don't see any advantage to straight up releasing him before we know if he can play. And if he's still dizzy next spring, it would be silly for him not to retire. If you're taking half a year to recover from a concussion, that might be your sign to move on.

[Mass Haas]

I'd doubt Corey would retire and not only forfeit his $2 million from the Brewers, but also the other $4.25 for the remainder of his salary and 2008 buyout.

 

Koskie gets a $3 million signing bonus and salaries of $2.5 million in 2005, $5.25 million 2006 and $5.75 million in 2007. Toronto has a $6.5 million option for 2008 with a $500,000 buyout.

[pogokat]

ahem...

 

Quote:

---

and i think koskie may retire, or just be stuck injured all season so he can get his check

---

 

he's not just gonna dissapear, but he might setlle his contract and call it a day...if he can't play baseball anymore, then what's to be done? I guess a few more months might make it better...but post-concussion stuff can change you permanently...and possibly weaken reaction times...he could come back...but i wouldnt be surprised at all if he does retie, millions of dollars or not, or at least spends all of next year on the 60 day dl...

[paul253]

i think relying on the same starting rotation is foolish. Sheets in beginning to be injury prone, Davis's control is MIA and who knows if it's coming back next year, and Ohka and Bush are both too inconsistent to rely heavily on. Cappy is the only one who is really reliable. I say we let Ohka go and trade for either Garcia or Buehrle or Vazquez from the White Sox. That gives us Davis at #4 and Bush at #5, with more time in AAA for Villanueva and Eveland and Jackson. If someone goes down, we have those three options, plus maybe Parra or Gallardo. I think one of the three Sox pitchers i mentioned can be had for pitching prospects like Rogers or Dillard or Hammond, plus additional prospects. I say with use our depth of pitching in the minors (Eveland, Jackson, Inman, Villanueva, Dillard, Hammond, Rogers, Gallardo, etc) to obtain a proven major league starter.

[endaround]

Garcia's PRAA is -6, worse than Davis and he doesn't K anybody.

Vasquez PRAA is -2, or just what Davis is at.

Buehrle is at -9, though likely he's having a down year and unlikely to be avaiable.

[JohnBriggs12]

endaround,

 

Does your PRAA comparison to Davis account for the fact that Davis gets to face pitchers and the guys you are comparing him to don't? Not to mention the fact that the Sox have the Tigers and Twins in their division, two teams far superior to any in the NL Central.

 

Also did you include Garcia's last two starts (16 IP, 2 Hits, 0 Runs)?

 

I fail to see the logic of "rewarding" Villanueava's outstanding efforts with another trip to AAA, but I think a Garcia would be an upgrade over Davis.

[endaround]

Yes it accounts for league differences and is current. The point isn't so much Davis versus these pitchers, thats just more for refference. Its to show that these guys aren't that good and trading for mediocre players when you have likely better internal alternatives makes little sense.

[Scooter1027]

After watching Villanueva's last two outings and his body of work over the past two seasons, I'll be disappointed if he isn't given an honest shot at the rotation next year. To me there are only four that I'm attached to, those of course being Sheets, Cappy, Bush, and Villy. I could see bringing Davis back, he likely dropped his asking price with this season. Tomo I think can go.

 

As for the bullpen, I'm attached to Cordero, Wise, Capellan, Sarfate, and Shouse. That's about it. I would love to see a reliable veteran setup man brought in to pitch the 8th before Cordero. That would take some heat off Capellan and Sarfate going into next year.

 

I'm still torn on what to do with the lineup. If Yost can be trusted to put Jenks in a strict platoon (except when he's hot), I'd love to have him back.

[paul253]

I have been all over Jenkins just as much as the next guy, but can he really be as bad as he was this year. I mean, his overall numbers wont look too bad at the end of the year, although i know we all expected more than 16 homereuns. What about moving him back to left, with Hart in right, and a platoon in center. If he has even a decent year we could probably move him at the deadline since he is in the final year of is contract and teams wont shy away from his price tag.

[brewerfan82]

Here's my revised off-season plan:

 

Let'em walk:

IF Tony Graffanino (offer arby)

3B David Bell

SP Tomo Ohka (offer arby)

SP Rick Helling

RP Dan Kolb

RP Jeremi Gonzalez

 

Trade'em:

3B Corey Koskie, prospect(s) for Morgan Ensberg

OF Brady Clark or Kevin Mench, for prospect(s)/relief pitcher

RF Geoff Jenkins, $4mil for prospect(s)/relief pitcher

 

Sign'em:

LF Frank Catalanotto, 2 yrs $6mil (07: $2.5mil, 08: $3.5mil)

 

Payroll:

C  Damian Miller        3.750

1B Prince Fielder       0.329

2B Rickie Weeks         0.500

3B Morgan Ensberg       4.500

SS Bill Hall            3.000

LF Frank Catalanotto    2.500

CF Gabe Gross           0.355

RF Corey Hart           0.329

 

C  Mike Rivera          0.350

SS JJ Hardy             0.355

IF Jeff Cirillo         0.800

OF Mench/Clark          4.000

OF Nix/Gwynn            0.355

 

SP Ben Sheets          10.000

SP Chris Capuano        4.000

SP Doug Davis           4.500

SP David Bush           0.352

SP Carlos Villanueva    0.350

 

CL Francisco Cordero    5.000

RP Jose Capellan        0.330

RP TRADE ACQUISITION    3.000

RP Matt Wise            1.000

RP Derrick Turnbow      2.300

RP Brian Shouse         1.500

RP Dennis Sarfate       0.350

                     --------

             Payroll   53.805

 

OF Geoff Jenkins        4.000

                     --------

          Total Paid   57.805

 

 

Summary/Comments

Adding Ensberg and Catalanotto to the lineup should provide some nice OBP boosts while providing similar power to Jenkins and Koskie:

 

                            CAREER           2004-NOW

   Morgan Ensberg       .371/.486/.857    .372/.484/.856

   Frank Catalanotto    .363/.455/.818    .369/.437/.806

 

   Geoff Jenkins        .349/.499/.848    .349/.474/.823

   Corey Koskie         .367/.458/.825    .340/.461/.801

 

And adding a proven (albeit possibly overpaid at ~$3mil) reliever could really solidify this bullpen. I'm not sure who might be available, but hopefully a deal could be struck with a team that would like to swap a reliever for an outfielder with similar contract situations.

 

My total payroll of $57.805mil also allows the team to award a couple of our arbitration eligible players with multi-year contracts or more flexibility during the season for potential trades.

 

[Klements Bratwurst]

Maybe it is just me, but I think Attanasio might open up with a higher than 60 Million payroll in '07. Mid 60's- $70million? We will have 2.3 Million fans pass through the turnsyles this year and we rank as of last night's ESPN ranking at 17 for average per game attendance. We are ahead of Baltimore, Colorado, and Toronto to name a few bigger market teams in attendance. We did all of this with maybe a mid 70 win team.

 

I guess my hope is that the organization realizes that the fans have done their part and bumping the payroll from 53-55 million to start '06 to only 60 million doesn't exactly show the fans that they are willing to add a few nice pieces to complement our kids that hoepfully will mature further in '07.

 

Of course, we must do it smartly though as we cannot afford a Jeffrey Hammonds mess on our hands.....

[trwi7]

Quote:

---

I guess my hope is that the organization realizes that the fans have done their part and bumping the payroll from 53-55 million to start '06 to only 60 million doesn't exactly show the fans that they are willing to add a few nice pieces to complement our kids that hoepfully will mature further in '07.

---

 

That's the way I feel. We've outdrawn Minnesota and Oakland in attendance on average since 2001 yet they have payrolls in the $62-64 million range and we're in the $52 million range. I'm hoping Attanasio will go to about 63 or 64 million.

[paul253]

Brewerfan82

 

Your roster is very creative but it only contains 3 new players! I think this team needs a bit of a makeover. Jenkins, Clark, Mench, Nix need to go. I think Ohka can walk (offer him arby of course) I;d like to see Koskie back if he can, but more so off the bench with Hall and Hardy starting everyday. We need to trade for an established starter who doesnt have a history of injuries. We need to sign one good, solid, 8th inning guy to set up CoCo. We need someone other than Hall and Fielder to hit homeruns. And we need someone who can steal 30 bases.

[brewerfan82]

paul,

I think most of your needs were addressed in my proposal:

• Jenkins, Ohka and either Mench or Clark would be gone; I think we need one of Mench or Clark to stay as a bat off the bench and I see no reason to let Nix go.
• I wouldn't mind Koskie back, but if we're able to get a guy like Ensberg, I don't see the need to keep him
• Getting an established starter would be great, but the cost (either through trade or free agency) will be very high. If Mark decides to open his wallet and go over $60mil, this would be a great place to add some proven talent.
• I'm hoping we can get a solid 8th inning setup-type reliever for one of our outfielders (probably throwing in a pitching prospect like Hendrickson).
• Ensberg has had homerun seasons of 25 in 2003 (385 ABs) and 36 in 2005 (526 ABs) and has 22 this year in only 369 ABs... That along with likely 20+ from Hart should be plenty of power.
• I think given a full season, especially if he stays in the leadoff spot, Weeks could be your 30+ SB guy. He had 15 last year in 360 ABs and 19 this year in 359 ABs.