Does anyone else think we just pocket the money we are saving?

[kilgore37]

I don't think the FA pitchers out there are worth the long term investment. Anyone else think we'll sign a reclamation project or 2 and let one or 2 of the A or AA starts have a shot and try again next year in FA ? I just can't see us wasting money on 3 years of Davis or Washburn in this market. It's just my gut but I think we sit on like 20 million and see where we are on July 31th.

[derflotr]

I'd root for this over three years of either of the guys you mention (as much as I love Doug Davis) or Randy Wolf...even John Lackey considering the money he'll be getting. I'd rather do a trade for an Edwin Jackson type than do anything in free agency. Unfortunately I think there's pressure on Doug Melvin to make drastic changes in the starting rotation - meaning getting "sure things" instead of trusting in "you know what you get" guys like Looper, Suppan, Bush, etc. As much as he's struggled lately, I'd rather give Josh Butler a legitimate shot out of spring training than giving it to Jarrod Washburn...but I'm probably in the minority on that one.

[wishicouldhit]

Does anyone else think we just pocket the money we are saving?

 

Absolutely not, since Mark A has been taken the over organization he has always made moves to improve the club. He is a businessman and understands the importance of keeping fans interested. Here are some of the moves that he has made to better the team rather than save money: trade Laporta and Brantley for Sabathia (mortgage the future of a half season of a pitcher who will get to the playoffs and raise attendance), sign Cameron twice, and bring in Jeff Suppan. I know the Suppan signing is unpopular today but at the time it showed a commitment to building a team that would be competitive.

[wishicouldhit]

I also feel that Wolf and Lackey will be the only pitchers that will for sure get 3+ years. I think the brewers will have 3 choices in adding two SP: sign a quality FA pitcher, sign one of the injury prone pitchers on a one or two year deal (not counting mulder), or trade Gamel for a pitcher with 2+ years left on his deal. I see Mulder getting a minor league deal, which will add much needed depth.

[brewmann04]

I would like them not go nuts trying to force a signing with this weak crop. I rather see 2 1 year deals with 2 high risk players and maybe offer the big money to Prince.

[patrickgpe]

thats the reason i wished they picked up loopers option. I know he gave up too many homers but say we give Randy Wolf a multi-year, multi-million dollars deal, does anyone think that he will be a significant upgrade over Looper.

[trwi7]

does anyone think that he will be a significant upgrade over Looper.

 

Yes.

[logan82]

No, I don't think Mark A. would pocket the money. I do think that they might be counting on smaller attendance and revenue this year and decrease payroll.

[Patrick425]

I think this is an interesting idea. I think some people are not happy with the term "pocketing". However, I really think kilgore meant it might be better to "bank" the money for a future date when the market is a little more favorable to buyers. It really reminds me of when the Brewers went out and signed Hammonds. I think there was a lot of pressure on the Brewers at that time to do something big going into the new stadium. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something stupid that will haunt you for years to come.

 

I guess the difference between now and the "Hammonds era" is that the Brewers have two legitimate stars on their roster right now in Braun and Fielder and a solid young pitcher in Gallardo. So, there is always the fear that they will blow this "window of opportunity".

 

There are not a whole lot of pitchers on the market right now that I would be willing to sign to a LT deal.

[wishicouldhit]

there is plenty of quality pitchers (not great) that the brewers will be able to get on fair deals due to their financial flexability and other teams taking measures to cut back. im not saying sign a bunch of guys to 3 and 4yr deals but the brewers can get some one or two year deals so we might have the budget room to get prince after his contract is up.

[silversurferr]

I do not see any worthwhile FA's. Instead, use the money to extend our core players. Gallardo would be my first target because I do not think Prince is willing.

[rluzinski]

I don't understand why so many people are obsessed about extending Prince. The Brewers do not look like a playoff team over the next two years, with Prince getting paid well below fair market value. With a $90 mil payroll. You have to build a playoff team with as few post arby players as possible. Paying Prince $18ish mil a year is probably not part of the solution.

 

And don't the Brewers only have something like $15 mil to play with anyway, this year?

[Ennder]

There is no reason the Brewers can't make the playoffs in the next 2 seasons. The Cubs are in complete disarray and the Cardinals overproduced last season. I wouldn't project them to make the playoffs but all it takes is a couple pitchers having good season to turn them into a playoff team.

[kilgore37]

I don't understand why so many people are obsessed about extending Prince. The Brewers do not look like a playoff team over the next two years, with Prince getting paid well below fair market value. With a $90 mil payroll. You have to build a playoff team with as few post arby players as possible. Paying Prince $18ish mil a year is probably not part of the solution.

 

And don't the Brewers only have something like $15 mil to play with anyway, this year?

we are up around 25 mil.

10 for cam

5 for jj

5 for kendall

6.5 for looper.

 

I dont think we are going to be able to get a FA pitcher worth signing unless we give them 3 years and none are worth it. I am hoping Doug get creative and is able to take on salary like with what the Soxs did with Peavey.

[TheCrew07]

No we aren't up to 25 million to spend, you must also figure in the raises to everyone currently under contract

[Roderick]

The Brewers do not look like a playoff team over the next two years,

I disagree. I don't think Escobar, Gomez, and Lucroy/Salome will hit in 2010, but I could see a fair chance that 2 out of the 3 positions will provide close to league average overall offense with very good defense in 2011. Hopefully by 2011 the Brewers will be able to count on a pitcher from the minors in the starting rotation and spend the Suppan money on a free agent. The only problem with setting this all up for 2011 is that means the Brewers keep Fielder and if they are still in it at the trading deadline they are in quite a quandry and may end up only getting picks for him.

[rluzinski]

I didn't say that the Brewer COULDN'T make the playoffs; just that they don't look like one to me. In other words, I don't consider them to be a 90 win team. Of course, many teams make the playoffs that didn't look like one before the season starts. But when you are making long term personel decisions, all you can do is make a best guess.

 

The offense looks almost the same for next year. Throwing CHONE's projections together, I am (VERY ROUGHLY) getting something like a .264/.333/.426/.759 team line for 2010. Compared to 2009, that's 8 points less OBP and the same SLG. NL average last year was .259/.331/.409/.739, so the Brewer offense still look to be above average.

 

The pitching staff has to get better by default but it's going to be tough for it to be even average. Let's assume Melvin signs a 4.0 ERA starting pitcher with his FA money. This might be our starting rotation, with Bill James' ERA projections (he always seems too optimistic), and more realistic expections (at least, according to me):

 

Gallardo: 3.53 / 3.75 ERA

FA Pitcher: 4.00 / 4.00 ERA

Bush: 4.29 / 4.5 ERA

Parra: 4.59 / 4.59 ERA (I have no idea what to expect)

Suppan 4.8 / 5.25 ERA

 

Using a simple average, James says 4.24 ERA, I say more like 4.4 ERA. With no significant injuries (big "if", obviously) and a good FA pickup (another big if), our starting pitching staff can be league average. Assume average bullpen.... average D... 85-86 wins?

 

A really quick estimate suggests that 90 wins is going to take some overachieving and/or luck, IMO. Maybe the Cardinals and Cubs bothfall flat on their face and each win 84 games. I wouldn't count on it, though. What does that mean Melvin should do next year and beyond? I have no idea, really. Investing $15 mil on a starting pitcher this year will add maybe 3 wins but it still doesn't result in a playoff caliber team. Melvin could save that money and try to sign Prince long term to some mega deal but what's the point? He'll still probably be paying FA price for wins. The fans will like the signing, of course (unless Prince has another 2008 season, then he'll again be fat and need to be traded). I just don't think a $90 mil payroll team can't consistently make the playoffs by paying fair market price for wins. Signing Prince to a 6/$120 mil deal probably decreases their chances of making the playoffs in the long term. Unless Prince is giving a significant home town discount, you are better off trading him or taking the comp picks.

[Ennder]

I don't think the Brewers can really build a 90 win team unless they get a lot of luck with young players. They have to hope to build an 85 win team and have it make the playoffs some seasons.

[nate82]

A really quick estimate suggests that 90 wins is going to take some overachieving and/or luck, IMO. Maybe the Cardinals and Cubs bothfall flat on their face and each win 84 games. I wouldn't count on it, though.

The only team I expect to rebound would be the Cubs and I am not so sure about the Cardinals. I believe the Cardinals are going to be losing Holliday, Pineiro, and DeRosa. Holliday was a key cog in that offense in St. Louis and without Holliday I am not sure the Cardinals make it to the playoffs they definitely wouldn't have won 90 games. If the Cardinals lose both Holliday and DeRosa that is a lot of offense that they have to fill in. The Cardinals would be back to the offense they had the first half of the season that was dependent mostly on Pujols, Ludwick, and Rasmus. If the Cardinals do not resign Holliday or DeRosa they will be depending on those three once again to carry their team offensively. I don't see the Cardinals having anything more than average offense next year and it will be once again their pitching that will have to carry them.

 

I don't believe Pineiro will have another year where he pitches at a 3.49 ERA. After Carpenter and Wainwright the Cardinals pitching staff is average to below average in pitching both Lohse and Wellemeyer are not that great pitchers. I'm not sure Wainwright will do another 2 ERA season next year it will probably be something around 3.20.

 

The Cubs will probably improve on what they did last year but I'm not sure they are a 90 win team either. They will be losing Harden you can take that as a positive or a negative but they have to replace him with someone. I don't believe Wells will have another good year like he did last year and Lilly might not be ready for spring training. Dempster regressed last year from his career year in 2008. The Cubs are probably going to improve offensively from what they did last year. Will the Cubs be a 90 win team next year? I'm not so sure about that.

[endaround]

Chone projects the Cardinals with three above average hitters, Pujols, Craig and Ludwick. The Cubs projections though are just funny. They project 7 above average hitters but no one special. But of those 7, one is Bradley and he's almost certainly gone and three are Lee, Fox and Hoffpauir.

[Thurston Fluff]

I know he gave up too many homers but say we give Randy Wolf a multi-year, multi-million dollars deal, does anyone think that he will be a significant upgrade over Looper.

 

I have been advocating for Wolf for a couple years now. He has always been a good pitcher whose value was diminished because of injury a few years ago. He has been injury free for some time now and could be had at a reasonable price for his value. I also like the idea of another lefty in the rotation. That helps relieve the workload on the loogys so they are ready to go all year long.

 

A really quick estimate suggests that 90 wins is going to take some overachieving and/or luck, IMO. Maybe the Cardinals and Cubs both fall flat on their face and each win 84 games.

 

I realize you are doing a quick estimate but I think you are underestimating what impact the defense will play. According to the fielding bible rankings Gomez is rated he second best center fielder in baseball. Cameron for comparison is ranked 7th. Hardy was not rated in the top ten at short so I think Escobar will be an improvement there as well. link

 

The cubs are a team with some big contracts to older players with diminishing skills. They over paid for some players wiht the hope of winning in the near future but didn't. Now they have these players who still have to be paid and are going to play but the best that can be hoped of form them is to stay as good as they have been. Which wasn't all that good.

The Cards have to retain all their free agents to remain as good as they were last year or find comparable talent elsewhere. Given the fact they traded away a lot of their minor league talent last year they will have to do so without major help form their system. That means free agency. If they can't retain their free agents they are unlikely to get better ones in FA. They will need to get a little lucky in finding a reclamation project or two if they hope to repeat what they did this year.

[rluzinski]

It's reasonable to suggest that no NL Central team will be projected to win 90 games in 2010. I think the odds are that one still will, however. Let's look at this scenario:

 

Team: Expected Wins

Cards: 87

Cubs: 87

Brewers: 85

Reds: 82

Astros: 78

Pirates: 67

 

The division winners averages 92 games. Only 9% of the time is the division won by a team with 86 or less wins.

 

The Brewers win the division 21% of the time. If the Cards and Cubs really aren't going to be true 90 win team in 2010, maybe it is worth it for Melvin to try and make an 85 win team and hope for the best.

 

What if the best Melvin can do is make a true 83 win team and the Cubs project to win 90?

 

Team: Expected Wins

Cubs: 90

Cards: 87

Brewers: 83

Reds: 82

Astros: 78

Pirates: 67

 

Brewers win the division 11% of the time.

 

I don't know what Melvin should do but I hope he's doing this kind of analysis to help him decide. If his projections tell him that he'll have a 15% chance to make the playoffs even if he does sign a solid starting pitcher to a 3/$45 mil deal, maybe he should just leave his wallet in his pants.

[nate82]

It's reasonable to suggest that no NL Central team will be projected to win 90 games in 2010. I think the odds are that one still will, however. Let's look at this scenario:

 

Team: Expected Wins

Cards: 87

Cubs: 87

Brewers: 85

Reds: 82

Astros: 78

Pirates: 67

I don't believe the Cards are any better than the Brewers. You can't expect the Cardinals pitching staff to do what they did this year next year again. The Cardinals have 2 good to great pitchers and the rest are average and below average pitchers this is not even considering the Cardinals bullpen which isn't all that good. Will put the Cards and Brewers as the same projected wins.

 

Take for example if the Brewers sign Lackey they have almost the exact rotation as the Cardinals have. You have two starters that can give you around a sub 3.00 ERA and the rest are average to below average. Now the difference between the Brewers and the Cardinals is their offenses. I like the Brewers offense more even without Cameron and Hardy. If the Brewers replace Kendall with anyone with a better OPS than him that is a plus even with Gomez and Escobar replacing Hardy and Cameron.

 

Other than Pujols, Ludwick, and Rasmus I don't see all that much offense out of the Cardinals. There are a lot of question marks concerning the Cardinals offense without Holliday.

 

I just don't believe the Brewers and the Cardinals are all that different nor are the Cubs. The Cubs are another year older and they are not adding much to their payroll this off season. I really believe that it is a toss up between the Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, and the Reds. It will be whoever can stay healthy and who can be the luckiest to win the NL Central. I see all of the 4 teams being 83-85 win teams all of them have a lot of holes in their rosters I just don't see any team in the NL Central as being a huge favorite in winning the NL Central. If the Cardinals resign Holliday I would put them ahead of the Cubs, Brewers, and the Reds but if the Cardinals do not keep Holliday you have four teams that are very similar.

[rluzinski]

"I realize you are doing a quick estimate but I think you are underestimating what impact the defense will play. According to the fielding bible rankings Gomez is rated he second best center fielder in baseball. Cameron for comparison is ranked 7th. Hardy was not rated in the top ten at short so I think Escobar will be an improvement there as well."

 

Escobar and Gomez are no doubt great defenders but I'm not sure it's a huge upgrade over what we had. Hardy has ranked as a solid defender both in terms of UZR and Tango's fan scouting report for years. Cam as well. Escobar still has to prove he's not just equal to Hardy but better. I have no doubt that Gomez is a defensive upgrade over Cam, but that's going from very good to great. Defense at 3B, 2B and 1B are still probably going to be below average on balance. Weeks and Fielder have made strides but I think they are both still below average. 3B is a huge question mark (hopefully Mcgehee's bad D was injury related and/or Gamel can figure things out there). Corner OFers might be average overall?

 

I reserve the right to be wrong on this but a back of the envolope estimate suggests that defense won't be a liability or a strength. Average to a bit above average, perhaps?

[Ennder]

It would absolutely shock me if the Cardinals didn't see major regression from the rotation. They basically got the perfect world results from their rotation last year.