Lowe coming in, Suppan going out...

[TooLiveBrew]

"Braves right-hander Derek Lowe turns 37 on June 1. He is guaranteed $15 million in each of the next three seasons. And he had a 6.65 ERA in his final nine starts."

 

I just loved reading this. The length of that contract offered by ATL was just unintelligent.

 

It really doesn't sound like the Brewers are seriously considering a Hart--Lowe swap (unless of course the Braves eat a lot of Lowe's remaining money), and I'm glad to 'hear' that.

[pingman]

read the above post from Mark Bowman....it was a bebuttal to Rosenthal's earlier post....the Braves have no interest in Hart, who they consider a more exprensive Jeff Francoeur (although IMHO Hart's defense is not in the same league as Francoeur's)

[JohnBriggs12]

Braves are delusional if they think that if Lowe were on the market now, he'd be 2nd in demand behind only Lackey. Sure if teams completely ignored his 2009, but how can you? Especially for a guy who's 36.

[chadomac]

I agree with the Braves evaluation of Hart, but I was hoping they felt differently and wanted to give us Vasquez for Hart and prospects. I'll hold onto the dream of McGehee and a prospect or two (not named Gamel/Lucroy/Lawrie) for now.

[RyDogg66]

Lowe would be a disaster in any infield that had Fielder, Weeks and potentially Gamel. in it. Escobar can only get to so many balls.

[PeaveyFury]

Lowe would be a disaster in any infield that had Fielder, Weeks

 

Both Fielder and Weeks look to have made great strides defensively last year (with the obvious disclaimer that Weeks' time was limited).

[Ennder]

Weeks made great strides in 2008, people just didn't seem to notice it for some reason. He maintained those strides in 2009, he is pretty close to an average 2B now imo, though more range than reliability.

 

I think if Lowe were a free agent this year he easily could be the #2 SP on the market, that is just how horrible the market is this season, I'd certainly rather have him than the Washburn and Davis's of the world. I wouldn't want to take him on at that contract obviously, but he is a pretty good target for Melvin if they get the right deal.

[Mr Southpaw]

Lowe

Kelly Johnson 2B

Davis Ross C

Young Pitcher (Parr, Ridgeway)

$ 10,000,000

 

for

 

Suppan

Hart

 

Lowe is such a liability, I would need a quite a bit to make it work. I have always like Johnson and he had a bad year last year, Ross is cheap and would solve the back up question to Lucroy, the young pitchermay help down the line and you cannot argue with cash.

 

Lowe minus Suppan = $31,000,000 minus $10,000,000 = $21,000,000.

To me that is still a little too much risk.

 

If Johnson = Hart then Ross and the pitcher help make up for the risk.

 

Don't beat me up too bad.

[chadomac]

The Braves don't want Hart - that's the problem. They feel he's a more expensive Jeff Francour... which he kinda is.

[Patrick425]

The Braves don't want Hart - that's the problem. They feel he's a more expensive Jeff Francour... which he kinda is.

plus, I'm guessing that Heyward will make his debut for the Braves at some point in 2010.

[Hate those Rodents]

I saw Kelly Johnson was a non-tender candidate. I wonder if we'd be willing to deal them Weeks and Suppan for Johnson and Lowe. Johnson could be a stopgap at second base until Lawrie arrives.

[pingman]

wait until Johnson is non-tendered, then snap him up at a more affordale salary....

 

I've always been a big fan of Kelly Johnson.... he could be a solid utility player; he played LF & 2B for the Braves ....and in Braves system he started out as a SS but also played 3B.... love that short stroke, dude can rake....just needs a change of scenery

[Hate those Rodents]

I'd be fine with Johnson cutting into Corey's playing time some in RF, and he'd also be a nice utility guy to have (and bat for the bench) should Counsell and Lopez leave.

[HiAndTight]

2) the Braves, or any one else for that matter, don't want Suppan's crazy-bad contract

Suppan's contract is not that bad since if the Braves traded Lowe straight up for Suppan they would have a lot of salary relief which would allow them to extend Vazquez another year or two. The Braves would be saving about $28m over the next three years ('10,'11, and '12 )by trading Lowe for Suppan. If the Braves are really looking to cut salary then they would be stupid not to do this kind of a deal. That $28m could easily translate into a FA or extending Vazquez a couple of years.

 

On the other hand the Brewers would be dumb to accept this trade. It would make their financial situation even worse than what it is currently.

 

The problem is, the Braves could very likely just trade Lowe and get nothing back in return or at the very least trade him for a marginal prospect(at worst) and take on 3 million a year.

 

Derek Lowe's a very good pitcher who struggled just a little bit last year.

 

Javier Vazquez is also a good pitcher, but Derek Lowe is a dependable workhorse who you'd have under control for 3 additional years.

 

 

Were the Braves willing, I'd eagerly jump on a Lowe+10 million for Corey Hart and perhaps a mid level prospect. Not quite a Caleb Gindl, but perhaps a Axford, a Farris, someone of that caliber.

 

 

But I have a favorable opinion of Derek Lowe and believe he will perform at a 3.85-4.15 ERA for the life of his contract, while taking the ball 30+ times a year.

 

Trade for Lowe, perhaps move Gamel to RF if you are in fact confident that McGehee can handle the job(perhaps even if you are not as Taylor Green will be ready shortly), sign a low risk type guy in Mark Mulder or someone of that caliber, and then possibly look at one more FA.

 

Perhaps Ben Sheets for a 1 year 4.5 million dollar deal with 3.5 in incentives and a 14 million dollar team option with a 1.5 million dollar buyout?

[HiAndTight]

Braves are delusional if they think that if Lowe were on the market now, he'd be 2nd in demand behind only Lackey. Sure if teams completely ignored his 2009, but how can you? Especially for a guy who's 36.

 

I think delusional is a bit much.

 

Lets not forget that Derek Lowe's final numbers were inflated as a result of an unlucky BABIP, and a couple of bad starts. Now I don't pretend that throwing out starts is a valid way to go about evaluating a pitchers worth, just that if one start or....3 starts as it were results in a pitchers ERA jumping up ~.60 runs or more, then you have to consider they were a good pitcher for the vast majority of the year.

 

The guy is 39, but I believe he's a pitcher who will age well. He's got a nice easy, fluid delivery, he's always been a workhorse, and he relies more on movement, and location than he does velocity. Now the fact that he is a guy who can throw in the low 90's with sinking fastball is a big part of who he is, I just don't think you're giong to see a jump to Suppanian level ERA's consistently.

[HiAndTight]

Weeks made great strides in 2008, people just didn't seem to notice it for some reason. He maintained those strides in 2009, he is pretty close to an average 2B now imo, though more range than reliability.

 

I think if Lowe were a free agent this year he easily could be the #2 SP on the market, that is just how horrible the market is this season, I'd certainly rather have him than the Washburn and Davis's of the world. I wouldn't want to take him on at that contract obviously, but he is a pretty good target for Melvin if they get the right deal.

 

Exactly. I'm incredibly fearful that we're going to go and lock up Davis and Washburn for 3 years and somewhere around 8-11 million dollars each.

 

I don't know if there has ever been more painfully obvious warning signs with a FA pitcher than with Jarrod Washburn. Doug Davis is a nice guy to have, but again, what's he going to do for us? Derek Lowe I believe is a pitcher who can pitch at the top of a rotation as a #2. Davis and Washburn are low end 3's and 4's.

 

AS for our IF, I am of the belief that trading Prince is the wise move, then you could insert Gamel into 1st and he'd immediately be a well above average defender over there.

That however won't happen, but I agree Weeks has improved a great deal, Escobar is absolutely incredible. Prince isn't good, but he only slightly below average least, and McGehee is a far better defender than he showed last year.

 

 

Either way, I don't buy into the argument that because you have a poor IF defense you don't want GB pitchers. I always want GB pitchers. Obviously I'd prefer a strikeout pitcher, but if you keep the ball on the ground, you'll do alright.

[HiAndTight]

I saw Kelly Johnson was a non-tender candidate. I wonder if we'd be willing to deal them Weeks and Suppan for Johnson and Lowe. Johnson could be a stopgap at second base until Lawrie arrives.

Sorry for the consecutive posts, just a very interesting topic to me.

 

 

As for this post, I absolutely love Weeks and believe he will be a MVP candidate at some point, however this deal would be incredibly difficult to pass up were it offered.

 

Perhaps we offer McGehee+Hart instead giving them a RH'ed OF'er and a viable option in the event that Jones goes down and some protection for Prado at 2nd in McGehee.