Brewers Decline Looper's Option

[Team Canada]

Cannot stand Davis (as a pitcher. Very nice man, however). Davis is as bad as Suppan and Looper. Trade for Vazquez. Sign Harden or Sheets. Do not sign Davis or Washburn.

I couldn't stand Davis either by the time he left, but that statement is impossible to back up beyond your personal feelings. He is better than Suppan and Looper, period.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Can you imagine how long our games could be with Davis followed by Vargas in the same game. We could really set records for longest 9 inning games if those two pitch for us in the same game.

[LouisEly]

Hits were up, walks were up, strikeouts were down, he's 35.

 

Bingo.

 

One thing to keep in mind when it comes to salary is that the economy isn't getting better. While the stock market is up (debate whether/not artificially), unemployment is up over 10% and more importantly corporations are still cutting costs. Because of unemployment (and underemployment/people making significantly less than they did) fewer fans will come to the ballpark and/or they will have to slash ticket prices in order to bring as many people in. Corporations will not be flocking to get those luxury suites and will spend less in advertising. I'm wondering how much of this is a directive from MA to cut costs.

 

The positive is that now with Hardy, Looper, and Weathers gone and likely Cameron and (hopefully) Kendall, that amounts to ~$28M off the books. That can buy you some really good pitching; even if they bring in two starters that average a 4.00 ERA between them, the difference between that and Suppan/Looper over 380 innings I calculated to be over 50 earned runs over a season. And that is a lot.

 

No anger and no regrets, Mr. Looper. You gave it your best shot but it's time to move on. Good luck. Please try the American League.

 

Or the north side of Chicago.

[silversurferr]

Yes Davis's stats are better, but he is the same type or class of pitcher as Looper and Suppan: oldish, weak stuff, nibblers, possible 10 win and usually 14 loss pitchers. Best asset: they eat innings. Davis is a little wilder and much more deliberate. Possibly more of an injury risk. None of these guys are good pitchers. Waste of money to sign any of them. We are already stuck with Suppan. We will not win with two of them starting. Besides, we already have Bush, who is only slightly better because he throws strikes and is younger. Need a number one or two to go with Gallardo. Bush is a four. Suppan is a five or six. Davis does not fill the other opening. Neither does Washburn.

 

(I forgot about Parra, who is the default number three. Unless we trade him with Gamel, Hart and others to get Halladay!)

[RockCoCougars]

I will say that Doug Davis looks like Steve Carlton compared to Looper or Jeff Suppan. That said, he is not worth 10 million per season. He walks far too many guys, and generally puts too many guys on base for my tastes. If he would take something like 2 years /$14 million, than I may consider it, but that's about as high and as long as I would go. He would be a fine #4-#5, not a #1-#2 like this team needs.

 

I'm not touching Washburn with a 10 ft. pole. He has 'bust' written all over him.

[silversurferr]

Rock; I think you and I are on the same page, but different paragraphs. However, I would not tie up any salary in Davis or Washburn (what an appropriate name!), even if they are are only options. Instead, start Narveson and wait for the trade deadline. Use the money to extend our position players.

[logan82]

Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't most free-agent pitcher about "that age?" Since they can't be free-agent until after 6 years in the bigs, and many pitchers reach the big at age 24, on average, then wouldn't most (note: I didn't say all) free-agent pitchers be, on average, 30 years old (or older, with a sprinkling of younger ones)?

 

You are right, most pitchers are that age. Just one more reason that you can make a generalization that big money on free agent pitchers is a bad idea. It isn't even the money so much as the years.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Could Dave Bush be the next one shown the door? MLBTradeRumors has Bushie as a non tender candidate.

[wibadgers23]

Could somebody please explain how the non-tender process works?

[endaround]

If Looper is gone I see no way Bush can be non-tendered. It makes no sense unless you really want Suppan pitching meaningful innings.

 

Non-tendering just means not offering arbitration to arbitration eligible players who have not earned enough service time for free agency. The player then becomes a free agent but the team signs the palyer for his full rights. For example if Hart woudl be non-tendered the team that brings him in would have him for this season and the rights for next season.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

The way I understand it is if a player is non tendered, any team can sign them.

[EauClaireNWL]

I don't see the team non-tendering Bush. He's young and shown enough in the past to allow him to get one more year to try and try to get his ship righted. He's usually been pretty good when healthy. If he stinks up the joint again in '10, you can let him walk at the end of the year no worse for wear.

 

I can understand the team wanting to overhaul their starting pitching staff to a degree, but you don't want to deplete it to the point where you have littler or no depth on the roster. At worst, Bush is a strong candidate for long relief if not the 4 or 5 hole in the rotation.

[silversurferr]

Eau CLaire, I agree. Brewers have nothing to lose. Bush is relatively cheap, and solid, if healthy. Bush will be here this year (unless he's a part of a trade).

[davego]

Agreed that Bush at least has a role in the pen. If he and soup both end up in that role; lots of cash tied up in long-relief.

[Ennder]

Other than getting hit by a pitch and not pitching well afterwards Bush hasn't done anything to suggest he shouldn't be in the rotation next year. If we are going to move someone to the pen I'd rather it were Suppan by far. Another option to make room for another pitcher is to start Parra in AAA until he proves he is throwing strikes.

[Fatter than Joey]

There is no way the Brewers offer Looper arbitration. They're already paying him $1M. If they offer arby and he accepts, he'd be guaranteed at least 80% of last year's salary, plus the $1M, and there's a decent chance he'd actually get a raise since he's a durable "winner."

 

As Logan points out, Looper is NOT guaranteed 80% in Arbys.

 

However I think you are 100% right that there is no way Looper is offered Arby by Melvin (even though he is type B) -- as Looper would probably would stand to win more in Arby than his 2010 option called for.

 

I don't like Looper, however, I agree with others here in that I think you are going to pay $5M for any veteran to start 30+ games -- so picking up Looper's option would be somewhat defensible -- what makes the arby path bad though, is that Looper would be given more money through Arby than simply picking up his option would have called for.

 

If DM offers Looper arby, he should be fired... out of a cannon into Lake Michigan.

[sheethead]

What do people expect from Looper next year? He's a tough guy to project. 4.75 ERA?

 

Expecting a 4.75 ERA from a full season of Looper in 2010 is expecting something just short of a miracle. I will be mildly surprised if he finds a spot in a rotation next year, and if he does it will come very, very cheap for the chancing team.

 

He is a 4.50-5.00 ERA type so no big loss, but to say that last year he was somehow much worse than previous years just isn't true.

 

Saying Looper had one of his worst career years last year, and that it was MUCH worse than a few of his previous years is very true, even if you ONLY look at xFIP. He was a bottom feeding 35 year old pitcher. His days are numbered, and might not have any left. To expect 4.50 from Looper going forward is on the fringe of wishful, just like expecting 4.50 from Suppan. Looper will need to pitch in Petco next year to keep his ERA under 4.75, just like Suppan.

[Ennder]

You are just way underrating the variance of ERA. It wouldn't surprise me even a tiny bit for Looper to show up with like a 4.58 ERA next year. It wouldn't surprise me to see it at a 5.00 either. His peripherals are in the same range they have been for the past 4 seasons so not sure how it can be considered significantly worse. Suppan I'd consider more of a 4.75-5.25 ERA guy at this point.

 

Moyer is a classic example of this type of thing. Look at his ERA trend over the past 7 years.

 

3.27

5.21

4.28

4.30

5.01

3.71

4.94

 

Even early in his career it jumped around like that. When you have guys who don't strike out a lot of people and who aren't extreme groundball types their ERA isn't really going to tell you much about their talent level. It just jumps around way too much.

[sheethead]

It wouldn't surprise me even a tiny bit for Looper to show up with like a 4.58 ERA next year.

 

In his last three years (Looper's only years as a full-time starter), he has an ERA of 4.76. He has given up 22, 25, & 39 home runs. If he pitches in a Miller Park type stadium or smaller, I would be very surprised if a 35 year old Looper, who gave up 39 home runs in 2009, would have a sub 4.75 ERA. He would need to pitch in an awfully pitcher friendly park to come anywhere near 4.50 next year.