Barry Zito talk

[tony2sweet]

This is what's up on foxsports.com under MLB rumors:

The Giants, who were rumored to be interested in dealing either Aaron Rowand or Barry Zito, aren't willing to do a "bad contracts" swap for Milton Bradley. "A deal like that? For a player like that?" Giants general manager Brian Sabean said. "No. Is that succinct enough? I don't know that addition by subtraction would work. Smarter people than us have tried that." -- Chicago Tribune .....Ben's Take: I'm hearing Milwaukee would take Zito, if the Giants pay most of his salary. Rick Peterson is Zito's former pitching coach in the Cy Young Oakland days.

[trwi7]

I don't really see the point. We shouldn't trade for him unless we're only paying $3-5 million per year of his salary and San Francisco isn't going to pay that much of his salary just to move him.

[RyDogg66]

I think you could pay more than 5 million a year for Zito. He only really had one atrocious year. Heck last year he was 4.00 ERA pitcher. I dont know how that would translate into Miller Park, but I think you could get away with paying 7-8 million a year for him be doing alright.

[Invader3K]

Remainder of Zito's contract, per Cot's: 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$19M, 13:$20M, 14:$18M club option ($7M buyout)

 

Those numbers are obscene. I can't believe SF would be willing to eat enough of that to make it worth the while for the Brewers.

[brewmann04]

I would not mind getting Zito if it didn't cost alot and we were able to get another decent starter.

[Hate those Rodents]

Yeah, I don't see this happening. What makes sense to me is Wells for Zito. Toronto can't get starters to sign there because of the division they are in. San Fran needs bats. Both contracts are two of the worst five in baseball easy.

[Teatoe993]

Suppan for Zito, $50,000,000, & 2 A-ball pitchers?

 

This should probably be in blue.

[joepepsi]

There's no way anybody picks up Zito's option, so counting the buyout that's a 4yr/$83 million contract. If the Giants take Suppan, you can deduct $14.5 million, down to 4yr/68.5 to add to the existing payroll obligations. That's still way too much for the Brewers.

 

The Giants would have to take Suppan and pay $30-40 million of the salary. Even if they did that, the Brewers are still saddled with a big long term obligation.

 

Zito hasn't pitched all that well at home for the Giants, so he could return to his post Cy Young/pre 2008 form. That's probably worth $10 million a year.

[JohnBriggs12]

If they took back Suppan and his $14.5 million this year and they paid $10 million per year from 11 through 13, plus half his buyout, I'd do it. That would make it $35 million over 4 years for Brewers. Zito's probably worth close to that.

[craigharmann]

I'm glad to see others suggest Suppan. I was going to, but figured I might get laughed at. $35 million for 4 years of a past Cy Young award winning pitcher? You're probably not going to get Lackey for that, and you'd have to give up a lot more to get someone of a similar caliber. And then to add Peterson to it to help him regain his stuff? That's a risk I'm all for taking.

[Teatoe993]

That Zito contract is just so horrible that it's really hard to wrap my brain around what the Giants would have to give up to make a fair trade.

[Hate those Rodents]

Zito, Cain, Bumgartner, and 20 million for Fielder and Suppan.

[pogokat]

how about zito and 60 million for brent brewer

[Hate those Rodents]

I am not paying Zito 4/23 AND giving up Brent Brewer...

[1e Corbeau]

I am not paying Zito 4/23 AND giving up Brent Brewer...

What if the Giants figure out a way to throw in Drew Henson?

 

I'd be ok with taking a chance at a price, like 4/23, that you could eat after 2-3 years if it didn't work out. The only problem with that, though, is how motivated are the Giants to move Zito if they're going to have to kick in that much cash? Obviously, they'll likely want to work Bumgarner into their rotation in the next year or two, barring any major set back. But is that enough motivation for them to kick in that much cash?

[TooLiveBrew]

I am not paying Zito 4/23 AND giving up Brent Brewer...

I think Pogo was joking, since Brewer looks to be moving on to college football.

[Hate those Rodents]

No, I was kidding too, but admittedly only playing along because he failed to play along with my proposal involving Fielder.

[DHonks]

Would it make a difference to look at how Zito probably throws 4-5 times per year in Colorado and Arizona, where his curve won't break (thin air) in addition to PacBel (or ATT or whatever it is these days) where it's often cool and windy?

[TooLiveBrew]

Zito also tweaked his mechanics this season, so it wasn't just some fluky improvement. That said, his price tag is still just ridiculously (& way too) high.

[TheCrew07]

In the immortal words of the anti drug campaign in the 80s... "just say no" to Zito. Whatever the price tag, no, nada, and finally BOO!

 

The transaction forum is a frustrating place for me personally these days, there just doesn't seem to be much hope of acquiring someone who has the potential to be a difference maker. We've continually moved our best assets without addressing the organization's biggest long-term flaw, the pitching. I look at all the names people are suggesting and mostly I just want no part of those players. I could get behind a Jackson or Vazquez of the names being mentioned and that's about it.

 

We need 1 pitcher who can pitch into the 7th inning on a regular basis and Yo just isn't there yet, he's just never been very economical with his pitches. I'm hoping he will improve, but who knows by how much from last year to the upcoming season he'll progress? The less innings we need the bullpen for, the better off the entire pitching staff will be.

[davego]

What the heck were the Giants thinking with that contract? Wow. I'd assume it isn't possible for SF to trade Zito and send enough money along for any team (or most countries) to take on that debt-load.

[dlk9s]

Zito, AT&T Park, and the phone number for Lincecum's dealer for Suppan and the recipe for Secret Stadium Sauce (although I'm hesitant to throw in the sauce).

[rluzinski]

Zito also tweaked his mechanics this season, so it wasn't just some fluky improvement.

 

Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Every spring training, we hear reports about almost every previously struggling player making adjustments.

 

According to fangraphs, Zito added 1.6 MPH to his fastball (now averaging 86.5 MPH!). He also threw 9% more sliders according to the data (I'm still very skeptical of the accuracy of their pitch type ID's). Zito's FIP and ERA the last 3 years:

 

2007: 4.89 / 4.53

2008: 4.72 / 5.15

2009: 4.31 / 4.03

 

What's a reasonable projection for 2010, 4.40 ERA? That's about league average (2 WAR, according to tango) and has a open market value of around $10/year. But this is essentially a 4 year commitment for a 31 year old pitcher who already throws only 86 MPH! It's not hard to envision Zito throwing 84 MPH at the start of 2013. As such, I'd feel inclinded to tag Zito with a pretty steep production decline. If we use tango's methodology, he assumes 1/2 win/year decline for any player on the decline side of their career. Zito's future value might be something like this:

 

2010: 2 WAR x $5 mil/WAR = $10 mil

2011: 1.5 WAR x $5.5 mil/WAR = $8.25 mil (teams have historically payed 10% more every year for a win... no idea if that will keep up)

2012: 1 WAR x $6 mil/WAR = $6 mil

2013: .5 WAR x $6.7 mil/WAR = $3.3 mil

 

4/$38 mil. The Giants would have to eat enough to get to around that number, plus whatever the value of any throw in players that they might receive. I can't imagine they would be willing to do that and I'm not sure I would want that anyway. A .5 WAR starting pitcher has around a 5.0 ERA. The Brewers already hnave enough of those kind of pitchers.

 

Incidently, had Melvin used a .5 WAR/year decline in his calculations when considering signing Suppan, he wouldn't be in the mess he is right now with him.

[DatHoser]

Remainder of Zito's contract, per Cot's: 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$19M, 13:$20M, 14:$18M club option ($7M buyout)

 

Those numbers are obscene. I can't believe SF would be willing to eat enough of that to make it worth the while for the Brewers.

Using these numbers: Suppan for Zito and $4mil this year, $10mil in 2011, 11 in 2012, 12 in 2013, and 3.5 in 14 for the buyout.

 

I'm almost tempted to put that in blue, but there's not a lot of pitching out there. So feel free to pile on me for that one, I'll take no offense.

[Invader3K]

Those would probably have to be roughly the numbers SF would have to give up in order for Milwaukee to take Zito. I just don't believe they would.