Edwin Jackson

[yoshii8]

He had a 4.42 Era in 08' and a 3.62 ERA in '09, and he averages 95 mph per fastball, and has a great slider and will only be 26 years old. I'm not sure why Bill James would project him to be .30 points worse on his ERA for next season. I understand his BABIP might go up, but I would be willing to gamble that he would be a good #2 or #3 starter for the next 2 seasons for the Brewers.

[twobrewers]

Kind of makes you temper your excitement of a Gamel-for-Jackson swap when you see that Bill James thinks Manny Parra will have a better 2010 than Jackson, doesn't it?

Jackson, however, would benefit from moving to the National League.

[Ennder]

Probably because Jackson has been very luck with runners on so far in his career and the 'safe' money is on him not being able to keep it up. Each of the last 2 seasons he has over a 76% LOB which is extremely high for a starter with only the very best starters in baseball able to keep it that high on a regular basis. Jackson's xFIP in 2008 was 5.16.

[trwi7]

Maybe he's good with LOB because he has really good stuff and isn't just tossing soft junk to the plate a la Suppan or Bush.

[Ennder]

Maybe he's good with LOB because he has really good stuff and isn't just tossing soft junk to the plate a la Suppan or Bush.

 

It just doesn't work like that. LOB% will scale somewhat with how good of a pitcher you are but not all that much. It also will scale with how good your bullpen is. Even a stud like Halladay can't keep it that high on a regular basis. Santana has managed to and that is about it.

[trwi7]

It just doesn't work like that. LOB% will scale somewhat with how good of a pitcher you are but not all that much. It also will scale with how good your bullpen is. Even a stud like Halladay can't keep it that high on a regular basis. Santana has managed to and that is about it.

So let's say one pitcher is throwing 88 with a decent curveball and another pitcher is throwing 94 with a good slider. Which pitcher is more likely to strand runners?

[Ennder]

The better pitcher, but not by the extreme amount that he has had is the point. Jackson will not be likely to sustain 76% for his career unless he becomes a much better pitcher over the next few seasons. It is a percentage so the better pitcher puts fewer on and lets fewer score, has a tighter range of ERA in general. The worse pitcher puts more on, lets more score and has more randomness in his ERA. It isn't like Jackson is elite in peripherals or anything though, he has a rate you'd expect from the top pitchers in baseball over the past 2 years and before that his rate was terrible. The truth is somewhere in between I'm sure.

[brewmann04]

People have mention getting Arroyo being an Option maybe adding him . Then add Mulder whom i would be shocked if was not a brewer by Christmas.

[BREWCREW5]

brewmann04[/b]]People have mention getting Arroyo being and Option maybe adding him and Mulder whom i would be shocked if was not a brewer by Christmas.

 

Hey Brewmann,

 

Sometimes your posts are really hard to read. Any chance you could use capital letters and proper punctuations? I'm not trying to knock you at all, its just a little hard to follow.

[brewmann04]

thanks for the heads up i make a major note of it

[LouisEly]

I would rather not make a big sacrifice (like Gamel) for Jackson. I think that the Brewers would be better served trying to find "next year's Edwin Jackson" - a guy with big time potential and upside who comes cheap... a reclamation project, I guess.

Manny Parra?

 

The Tigers aren't trading for Bush - they need to shed payroll. Think major league minimum.

 

I like what some have suggested. Gomez, Coffey, Villanueva, Salome, Peralta for Jackson and Granderson?

[thebruce44]

He had a 4.42 Era in 08' and a 3.62 ERA in '09, and he averages 95 mph per fastball, and has a great slider and will only be 26 years old. I'm not sure why Bill James would project him to be .30 points worse on his ERA for next season. I understand his BABIP might go up, but I would be willing to gamble that he would be a good #2 or #3 starter for the next 2 seasons for the Brewers.

 

His peripherals don't suggest he was as good as his ERA last year. Couple that with the fact that Leyland pitched him into the ground (as he always does with young pitchers) and I could see him being the next Fuastino Carmona. I think James suspects the same thing, or at least expects all those baserunners to catch up with him.

[Roderick]

Kind of makes you temper your excitement of a Gamel-for-Jackson swap when you see that Bill James thinks Manny Parra will have a better 2010 than Jackson, doesn't it?

Jackson, however, would benefit from moving to the National League.

Agreed on NL effect. Plus I am not familiar with the AL anymore, how does Detroit's stadium effect pitching stats? I assume it must be middle of the pack, since no one has mentioned it is a Petco or a bandbox. Is it + / - ?

[dadofandrew]

Comerica has favored hitters the past few years, 101-103.

 

Jackson, at 26, and going to the NL, would probably be as good of a "breakout" candidate as you could find in MLB. I'm not sure if the Brewers have the horses to get him without Gamel.

[804Sox]

Even though he out-pitched his peripherals this past season, Jackson kept the walk rate more reasonably under control and still has amazing stuff. I've been a big Jackson supporter, but I don't think he has the consistency to be a top of the rotation starter - more of a 2/3 to me, but a good one. Gamel + is probably about right . . . maybe Gamel and Peralta/Scarpetta.

 

The price might go down if the Brewers were willing to eat Ordonez and his salary, but it's only a 1-year commitment, so Gamel would still likely have to be involved.

[Milltownhooker]

according to Jon Heyman Tigers wanted Sean Kelley & Brandon Morrow from Seattle for Edwin Jackson. Obviously Jack Z said no thanks.

[HiAndTight]

I'll personally be surprised if Jackson has an ERA under 4 next year, lot of luck in that ERA. He is still an ok target but if we are trading at sub 4 ERA price I think we are spending too much.

Absolutely. I wanted Jackson a great deal last year(along with a rather large list of those who didn't enjoy his success), however this year he just seems like you're buying way, way too high on a guy likely to regress.

[jjkoestler]

From MLB Trade Rumors

"USA Today's Bob Nightengale tweets that the Tigers are close to trading Edwin Jackson, "perhaps as early as today." No word on the potential destination, but we'll keep you apprised in this post."

[Weirdos19]

As fast as the Brewers have moved this offseason, it wouldn't surprise me to see that he's going to Milwaukee.

 

I would trade McGehee and Salome for him right now.

[Invader3K]

Would love to see it happen. I wonder what the Brewers would have to give up to get him so early in the hot stove season, though.

[Oldcity]

Trade Rumors reporting the Mets may have just acquired Jackson.

[And That]

Trade Rumors reporting the Mets may have just acquired Jackson.

Ken Davidoff says no.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

Rosenthal says Brewers are not in on Jackson.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10475170

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I was just coming to post that. Wonder what the reasoning is. They say 12 teams have made offers. Maybe Melvin feels they'd have to give up too much to get him.

[Weirdos19]

Unless it's all GM speak. I couldn't imagine the Brewers not being one of the 12 teams.