Randy Wolf- Latest: Multiple sources say done deal with Brewers

[JonnyLungs]

This deal scares me. Wolf's numbers were much better than his career norms last year and park driven. The more hitter friendly/neutral Miller Park will bring him back to earth. I think we are buying too high here and would rather explore the trade market and inquire about guys like Vazquez, Correia, and Josh Johnson.

Likewise, most of Wolf's career norms were accumulated in hitter friendly Citizen's Bank Park and Veteran's Stadium.

 

I don't necessarily like three years but if you refuse to go three years on a pitcher, you'll never get anybody to sign that is worthwhile. As for the trade market, I'm not sure the Brewers have the prospects to get anything even of Wolf's caliber without damaging the system too much.

 

Wolf has very solid peripherals. When I compare Randy Wolf's potential contract and performance to the performance of guys like Barry Zito and Mike Hampton back in the day, I'd say Wolf is actually a bargain at what he'll be getting. Obviously cherry picking some extreme examples there.

 

I don't like to see theoretical 65 win teams paying top dollar chasing that 70th win. But when you've got a solid, but not-quite-there team like the Brewers you've got to take a few chances. Stringing together a bunch of has-beens and never will be's and hoping for the best isn't a way to operate a baseball team that hopes to compete.

[PeaveyFury]

an off season in which the available pitching looks to be exponentially better.

 

This is said almost every year, though, and almost every year the pitching FA class is a major disappointment due to re-signing, arby offers/acceptance, and unforeseen injuries. All you know for sure is the here and now, waiting for an undetermined point in the future when you may or may not be in a position to compete is a bad idea unless you're in full out rebuilding mode, like the 2002 Brewers or the current Pirates, not when a few moves can put you right in the playoff picture like the current Brewers.

[crewcrazy]

Looks like a deal might be imminent (again) -- Jon Heyman is noting that the Mets are backing off:

 

#mets efforts for randy wolf appear fruitless. looks like it's #brewers for 3 yrs, about $9 mil per.

 

#mets taking little closer look at lackey after getting sticker shock on middle-rung starters. might rather pay for ace.

[Hate those Rodents]

Well, 27 million is better than 31 million if Heyman is correct...

[bobskube]

Invader, Randy Wolf is not worth over 7 million in this economy unless it is a one year deal. Personally, the John Maine for Hart trade intrigues me more.

 

Are not the Cubs all right handed too? I'm sick of losing to those clowns. Three years in a row now. Let's kick them when they are down this year! No Wolf!

[Tbadder]

Free agent pitching for small market teams will never work. The truly best free agent pitchers will go to bigger markets, leaving teams like Milwaukee with the dregs. If the pitching is ever to be improved on a long term basis then the Brewers will have to start producing their own pitchers. The time for excuses is over. That money should be dumped by and large into scouting, player development, etc. The Brewers will never be Twin-like until the actually start producing Twin-like. Resources are finite especially for small market teams and signing Washburns and Wolfs and whatever is nothing but russian roulette. If you're gonna play that strategy you're better off signing cheap guys like Mulder, trading for players like Maine, etc. This idea that we've only got this small window of opportunity is just short sighted. It'll cause a GM to make a mistake that will debilitate his team for a longer period of time. If Mulder and a bunch of like duds fail at least you haven't mortgaged the future. if Washburn and Wolf fail, then there really is no hope. Which is the better model? But if you say "what if they succeed?" Well, maybe, but what if the cheaper version succeeds?

[TheCrew07]

Obviously I don't like this at all.

 

Instead of being creative and trying to work a trade, Melvin is targeting aging FAs to shore up the pitching... This was so predictable and the main reason I'm souring on Melvin, he wants to build around position players and spend money on FA pitching, and honestly it drives me freaking batty. I don't why I expected him to change, but I it would have been nice if he got away from this formula he keeps repeating and tried something different like a trade for a young pitcher. He won't think outside the box and just keeps repeating the same pattern with an eerily similar result.

 

If you read around prospect sites you'll find many links and quotes coming out of the organization that they believe they can trade hitting for pitching if necessary... except they've only done it once and it was a for rental. I hate to keep beating a dead horse but this really irks me. If they are struggling to put a good package together for a pitcher then how about we quit moving assets in meaningless trades and focus on deals that will impact the true weak point of the organization.

 

I know, I know we didn't give up anything to acquire anyone other than Sabathia, but maybe some of those nothings could have packaged with something for a legit pitcher. Mercedes has value, he's not a throw away relieve, Gillespie had value as a 4th OF, and so on...

 

Wolf is a fine pitcher, but he's old, and in addition to declining skills his risk of injury goes up significantly each subsequent year, that's just what happens to us when we age.

[PeaveyFury]

Invader, Randy Wolf is not worth over 7 million in this economy unless it is a one year deal.

 

All of the price hopes went out the window when Penny got 7.5 million from the Cards.

 

If the pitching is ever to be improved on a long term basis then the Brewers will have to start producing their own pitchers.

 

That strategy is all well and good, but by the time that works out, it will be 3-5 years from now, after Fielder and possibly Braun are long gone.

 

Well, maybe, but what if the cheaper version succeeds?

 

This team is ready to compete NOW. I'm 100% in agreement with you for the Brewers of 1999-2003. But this team is primed to compete with elite offensive players. Expecting to fix the problem with cheap guys is a longer-term process. That doesn't even take into consideration the fact that the bust rate of draft picks and young, unestablished pitching is much higher than the possible failing of free agents. Also, the Brewers aren't going to suddenly stop drafting pitchers and such, so there's no mortgaging the future going on for signing free agents, and they're not trading prospects away to get a guy like Wolf. The only major long-term problem is not being able to go out and get free agents when the young pitching is ready (if it ever actually is), so you're spending money now instead of on a future season that may never actually fall into place.

 

Your plan just doesn't make sense for where the Brewers are now.

 

Wolf is a fine pitcher, but he's old, and in addition to declining skills his risk of injury goes up significantly each subsequent year, that's just what happens to us when we age.

 

And for the next couple of years, he could also fill a significant hole in the team.

[logan82]

If you believe them to be around 80 wins now, Davis and Wolf gets them to 84-85 wins, which gets them darn close to the playoffs, or at least in a position where they have a legitimate shot again.

 

I agree that Wolf and Davis would put us in the 84-85 win range, maybe. I don't think that 80ish wins includes lower projections from Parra and Bush.

 

And CF may not decline as much as some think. Gomez is way too young to adequately project at this point.

 

Maybe not as much as some think, but it will decline. Even if Gomez makes the optimistic projections we are still probably talking about two wins.

[TooLiveBrew]

I know many on here have become incredibly jaded due to the Suppan boondoggle, but can we quit bringing it up in relation to future pitching acquisitions? I'm pretty sure Melvin himself does not want to repeat the same mistake.

 

One thing I think everyone can agree on is that the main concern here is spending big bucks on (older) FAs. This time it's Wolf (who's a better pitcher than Suppan is & was, imo), and last time it was Suppan. Even though the players & contracts are different, most seem to agree that opting for free agency to acquire good SPing is a bad idea. I think Crew07 has a decent beef with Melvin, and I'd love to see it proven wrong with a nice trade. Hopefully Rick Peterson can help Melvin identify which higher risk/reward pitchers to throw one-year deals at.

[PeaveyFury]

Tom H gets confirmation the Brewers' offer is 3/27 million, and they're looking for an answer tomorrow:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/78841947.html

[logan82]

Even though the players & contracts are different, most seem to agree that opting for free agency to acquire good SPing is a bad idea.

 

The only time I think it is a bad idea is when the contract extends multiple years. FA starting pitchers are mostly guys over 30 going into their declining years. Once these deals start to span over a year or two you start talking about guys around 35+ years old in many cases.

[clancyphile]

Tom H gets confirmation the Brewers' offer is 3/27 million, and they're looking for an answer tomorrow:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/78841947.html

$9 million per year for Wolf? Makes the deal look much less bad than otherwise.

 

Add Sharpie (figure 3/24), and the Crew's got a rotation of Gallardo, Wolf, Davis, Bush, and Parra. With Suppan in the pen somewhere, and Halama, Dillard, and Capuano at AAA, it's not as bad a situation as the start of 2009.

 

I often wonder if 2007-2009 would have gone better had the Brewers been the ones to give Sharpie a three-year, $21 million deal. No Estrada at catcher...

 

What might have been...

[valpocrewsader]

Invader, Randy Wolf is not worth over 7 million in this economy unless it is a one year deal.

 

All of the price hopes went out the window when Penny got 7.5 million from the Cards.

If anything, the Cards' 1 yr, $7.5 million deal for Penny should translate to a 3 yr, $18-$21 million deal for a guy like Wolf. We're committing to three years instead of one, yet I see no discount for that added commitment. In no universe is Wolf enough better than Penny to explain triple the length *and* 125% the yearly salary.

 

Solutions I'd rather explore than giving Wolf the rumored contract:

- Harden short term

- Berdard short term

- Sheets short term

- Durchsersersauce short term

- Smoltz short term

- Garland up to 3 years

- Beat the Cards' offer by giving Penny 1yr/$10mil or 2yrs/$15mil ... oops, DM missed this opportunity ... nicely done, Cards

- Trade for Lowe

- Trade for Johnson

- Trade for Vazquez

- Trade Hart for Maine

- Break the bank on Lackey

- Several other options I'm probably ignorant of since I'm not an MLB GM

- Stand pat and sign some uninspiring and very cheap stop gaps until next year, a'la Vargas and Livan

 

EDIT: Added Maine to the list after seeing that thread. And gives me a chance to implore one last time, "Walk away Doug!!"

[tigerbrew]

Add Sharpie (figure 3/24), and the Crew's got a rotation of Gallardo, Wolf, Davis, Suppan, and Parra. With Halama, Dillard, and Capuano at AAA, it's not as bad a situation as the start of 2009.

Interestingly, that would be 3 lefties in the rotation and if Narveson replaces either Suppan or Bush, Yo would be the only righty in the rotation. Can't remember the last time if any, we had this many lefties in the rotation.

 

Frankly I'm very uncomfortable about this deal, 3/27 million is an awfully high price to pay for Wolf in this economy, even the Mets seem to be balking at that price tag. I hope DM doesn't raise the current offer on the table, if Wolf wants more maybe it's prudent for the Brewers to look elsewhere.

 

Sorry but 3/24 is way too high price to pay for DD, no way I'd do it and I sure hope DM don't do it too.

[Invader3K]

$9 million per year for three years of the second best FA pitcher on the market really doesn't seem like a hug deal to me. Really, if we didn't have to pay Hall and Suppan this coming year, I doubt many would be that concerned.

 

You have to spend money to compete, generally speaking.

[MillerParkSouth]

I like 3 for $27. It's probably higher than i'd ideally like to go, but Wolf is a west coast guy so maybe we have to pay a premium to get him in. Like people have said, behind Lackey he's the best out there and we desperatly need pitching. When your farm system doesn't come close to producing major league pitching, these are the types of contracts you have to get in to. If the Wolf of the past 2 years shows up, this could be a great deal.

[Invader3K]

Sorry but 3/24 is way too high price to pay for DD, no way I'd do it and I sure hope DM don't do it too.

 

I hope if they do sign either Davis or Washburn, it's no more than a two year deal. Neither justifies a big $20 million+ contract at this point in their careers.

[PeaveyFury]

If anything, the Cards' 1 yr, $7.5 million deal for Penny should translate to a 3 yr, $18-$21 million deal for a guy like Wolf. We're committing to three years instead of one, yet I see no discount for that added commitment.

 

Unfortunately, baseball contracts really don't work that way. It's about dollars per year total, and Wolf as the second best pitcher on the market is certainly going to get more money per year than Penny, who is much further down the list.

 

Not to mention the extra money the Brewers still have to factor in just to get people interested in coming here- a problem the Cards really don't have to deal with.

[Invader3K]

Again, can we quit comparing Wolf to scrub pitchers like Brad Penny? They are not equivalent at all.

 

Also, I'm a little tired of hearing guys like Sheets brought up as solutions. Sheets, Harden, etc. are pitchers worth investigating, but to pretend we know they can be counted on as solid contributors in 2010 is being disingenuous. At least Wolf is a guy you can reasonably count on to pitch well for most of the season. You can't really point to a lot of the other guys being brought up as reliable starters.

[PeaveyFury]

Also, I'm a little tired of hearing guys like Sheets brought up as solutions. Sheets, Harden, etc. are pitchers worth investigating, but to pretend we know they can be counted on as solid contributors in 2010 is being disingenuous. At least Wolf is a guy you can reasonably count on to pitch well for most of the season. You can't really point to a lot of the other guys being brought up as reliable starters.

 

Agreed. The Brewers really need two starters that aren't question marks. Guys like Penny and Sheets just don't fit that bill at this point. They could certainly be one of the two, but you need one to be solid like Wolf or Davis or whomever, and then would probably need to bring in a couple of additional options as well in case they fail to be healthy or whatever.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I think if Melvin can hook Wolf, someone like Sheets, and Mark Mulder, for a reasonable overall cost, I would guess most fans would be fairly happy about our chances next year.

 

For example: Gallardo, Wolf, Sheets, Bush, Parra, with Suppan and Narveson in the pen and Mulder waiting in the wings (I'm guessing he might not be on the MLB roster immediately) doesn't sound too shabby at all. Hart can probably be moved for an OK starting pitcher too if additional insurance is felt to be needed.

[fondybrewfan]

I agree with what most of said on here. In fact Wolf might be the safest FA Starting Pitcher out there. Seriously what other FA could we get that we can reasonably assume will stay healthy and pitch well the majority of the time?

 

3/27 for Wolf would be a solid start to the offseason. Add one or two of the often mentioned short term deal guys and we will be able to compete for the division title. But Doug needed to acquire at least one pitcher that he can depend on.

[igor67]

Years are definitely an issue, but 3 years 27 million is pretty reasonable by any recent standards. I'd have been a lot less worried (though not excited) about Suppan if that had been the deal. 9 million per year is 25% less than Suppan, which is pretty substantial deflation. And I like the high risk high reward guys too, but you have to construct your rotation to at least be competitive when they are injured. So you need to have a couple of replacement level or hopefully slightly better options for 4th and 5th starters that you have some roster flexibility with who can bridge a gap, when Harden goes down for a couple of months. If you start counting a couple of those guys as rotation mainstays your playing roulette because it's far more likely both are injured at the same time, then they stay healthy long enough by themselves to propel you to the playoffs.

[JohnBriggs12]

Tom H. is reporting that Melvin has a meeting scheduled today with Wolf's agent. Their fallback if Wolf doesn't accept is Jon Garland.

 

Haudricourt is also reporting that they will look for the 2nd starter he wants in the bargain bin in January citing as that's how the Dodger got Wolf last year. Doesn't look like Davis or Washburn are likely unless they fall into bargain status later.