Randy Wolf- Latest: Multiple sources say done deal with Brewers

[JohnBriggs12]

Pretty sketchy rumor from a buddy I know, who is an absolute diehard claiming a source. But he says we offered Washburn two years and that we'll get him as long as the Twins don't offer three.

 

ETA this would be in addition to Wolf, not as the alternative TO Wolf.

With Pavano accepting arbitration doesn't that in essence knock them out of the Washburn sweepstakes?

 

Personally, if the Brewers were to get Wolf, I'd like to see a trade for a younger guy like McCarthy or perhaps see them go for a Scott Olsen either by trade or if the Nats non-tender him. If they got Davis and/Washburn in addition to Wolf, I'm okay with that too. But I think they'd have to non tender Bush to fit both in.

 

Nobody has talked about Jon Garland, but I wouldn't mind him either.

[NievesNoNO]

3 year 31 million is too much for a pitcher like Wolf, IMO. I hope the Brewers don't continue to up the ante and just say take it or leave it.

I kinda agree with you, but I appreciate the fact Doug is being proactive. I'd much prefer a two year deal, but if he's able to pitch like he has the last year and a half for most of the next three years it will be a decent deal. You must risk a little to reap some rewards. The Brewers do have a window right now and this deal by itself really wouldn't detract from any potential success in the future whether it turns out to be good or not.

 

Although I would hope the 2nd of the 2 hypothetical pitchers wouldn't be on a similar deal.

[wishicouldhit]

If Doug gets Wolf sign soon, I think it might be a good idea to let the market cool down and sign the best pitcher left at a discounted discount rate.

[Hate those Rodents]

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

With Pavano accepting arbitration doesn't that in essence knock them out of the Washburn sweepstakes?

That was the first thought I had too. They did DFA or non-tender Boof Bosner today though and probably will deal Perkins to fill another hole as well, so they might still plan on signing one free agent starter if they can work a deal that they like.

[Yeti73]

Heyman said it is 3 years $27

 

"#mets efforts for randy wolf appear fruitless. looks like it's #brewers for 3 yrs, about $9 mil per."

 

I guess "about" could imply more.

[BrewCrewForever]

3 Years $31 mill for Wolf seems like a bit much, but what can you do. The Brewers have to get some pitching and may have to overpay just a bit. If they lock him down and get Washburn on a 2 year deal I would feel pretty good about our rotation. Just hope Parra improves and Bush stays healthy.

[bobskube]

This is a Suppan-Like move. The rumors I heard last week were for 3yrs 18million for Wolf. Anything north of 7 million for him is a huge mistake. He is not worth it. I have not been so vehemently against a trade since ?

 

Big...big mistake guys. And I am a guy who loved JJ Hardy deal so I am not a hater either. Please Mets outbid us!

[Invader3K]

bobskube, that would be nice, but I would have to believe we would not get him with just $6 million per season. Some other team would swoop in and outbid the Brewers.

[Flood Pants]

While Wolf has certainly been inconsistent, this is much better than a "Suppan-like" move. Wolf, at his best, strikes out a lot of batters. That is a skill worth spending money on. Suppan's only selling point was "winning games" with no good stats to back up his "talent."

 

I like this move. It's probably the best one they can make in the current free agent market. Plus, he fills the "requisite" lefty in the rotation role, taking some pressure off of Parra.

[sargennm]

I have a feel the $27 to $31 million difference are the incentives being negotiated. The team is probably leaking that the deal is $27 mil and Wolf's camp is saying its closer to $31.

[And That]

I agree, sarge... it could also have something to do with a player option for the third (or... gasp... a fourth) year.

[bjkrautk]

...waiting for confirmation of the deal, before I start contemplating possible locations for the "Wolf Pack" section.

 

That said, I'm not sure I love this deal for $9 mil / year. I do see the similarities to Suppan's deal; Jeff's last 5 seasons prior to signing with the Brewers: 4.12 (2006), 3.57 ('05), 4.17 ('04), 4.19 ('03), 5.32 ('02...so I'm not accused of skewing the data to fit my point). Wolf's last 5 seasons: 3.23, 4.30, 4.73, 5.56, 4.39.

 

Aside from the year immediately preceeding the contract, Suppan appears to be the better pitcher.....and those numbers don't factor Suppan's post-season success. Moreover, Wolf is older now than Suppan was when he signed his contract.

 

 

The major differences, and the reason why I have cause for optimism, are that Wolf is a lefty, and has better peripheral numbers (K/9, K/BB) than does Suppan. Also, Wolf doesn't make quite as much as Suppan does....and it's only a 3-year deal.

[prophet]

With Pavano accepting arbitration doesn't that in essence knock them out of the Washburn sweepstakes?

 

Personally, if the Brewers were to get Wolf, I'd like to see a trade for a younger guy like McCarthy or perhaps see them go for a Scott Olsen either by trade or if the Nats non-tender him. If they got Davis and/Washburn in addition to Wolf, I'm okay with that too. But I think they'd have to non tender Bush to fit both in.

 

Nobody has talked about Jon Garland, but I wouldn't mind him either.

actually, if they have to non-tender bush to sign davis and washburn in addition to wolf, i would be very against it. bush isn't great, but he's better than either davis or washburn. right now, without signing anyone, bush is the second best we got. with signing wolf, he's the third best. with signing davis and washburn, he's still the third best.

[homer]

No FA pitcher is going to be wart free other than maybe Lackey who is out of the Brewers price range. If not Wolf, then who do you sign? It's a risky move but given the Brewers window it's one they have to take.

 

I'd like for them to sign a guy like Harden to a one year incentive laden deal with a team option for year two in addition to signing one or two of these free agents.

[Weirdos19]

With Pavano accepting arbitration doesn't that in essence knock them out of the Washburn sweepstakes?

 

Personally, if the Brewers were to get Wolf, I'd like to see a trade for a younger guy like McCarthy or perhaps see them go for a Scott Olsen either by trade or if the Nats non-tender him. If they got Davis and/Washburn in addition to Wolf, I'm okay with that too. But I think they'd have to non tender Bush to fit both in.

 

Nobody has talked about Jon Garland, but I wouldn't mind him either.

actually, if they have to non-tender bush to sign davis and washburn in addition to wolf, i would be very against it. bush isn't great, but he's better than either davis or washburn. right now, without signing anyone, bush is the second best we got. with signing wolf, he's the third best. with signing davis and washburn, he's still the third best.

There is no way Bush is better than Davis and Washburn. He does look great sometimes, but he can be downright awful. The Brewers were thinking about non-tendering Bush, knowing he'll only make about 4.5mil this year. So not only do they think he isn't that good, neither do other teams. Because Melvin's phone would be ringing off the hook if anybody thought a good pitcher that makes about 4.5 mil, for one year, is available.

[Invader3K]

My worry about Bush is that the inury he suffered this season will still affect him next year. He was downright awful after taking that line driver off his arm.

[jwill535]

If they sign him, do we all have to wear shirts like this to games.

 

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51ANCwQnIjL._AA280_.jpg

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't understand why people continue to insist on calling this a Suppan-like deal. There is no comparison, aside from the fact that both were FA targets.

[PeaveyFury]

The Brewers are throwing money at a problem that won't go away. If they dole out two of these contracts they'll be doubly hamstrung for years to come.

 

Unless they pitch well and make the problem go away? If they're supposed to stand pat, how does the problem ever go away? Sit around for three or four years and hope like heck that someone falls in our lap or that somebody in A ball comes up and dominates? Your take just doesn't make sense, because you're not even ATTEMPTING to solve the problem. Of course if you don't even try to solve a problem, it's certainly not going to go away. Where do the Brewers start to compete again in your scenario?

 

The offense has already been weakened significantly this off-season, so that 80ish win team is probably only high 70s win.

 

My 80ish win projection was including the moves already made. A lot of the roster underachieved last year by nearly all projections, and one position has already been upgraded while CF has declined.

 

Wolf and say, Davis does not make them a playoff team.

 

If you believe them to be around 80 wins now, Davis and Wolf gets them to 84-85 wins, which gets them darn close to the playoffs, or at least in a position where they have a legitimate shot again. Doing nothing as you propose sends the team into a potential spiral. Fans aren't going to continue coming to the ballpark numbering 3 million plus to watch sub-.500 seasons again. Then there's a declining amount money to upgrade the team even when you finally decide you feel it's appropriate to make a run whenever that may end up being.

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, I don't get the comparison at all. The k/9 and bb/9 numbers are quite different, and to me those are two of the most important numbers for a pitcher.

 

I wouldn't be super-thrilled with this signing, but it wouldn't ruin my Christmas like Suppan did.

[Invader3K]

And CF may not decline as much as some think. Gomez is way too young to adequately project at this point.

 

I know many on here have become incredibly jaded due to the Suppan boondoggle, but can we quit bringing it up in relation to future pitching acquisitions? I'm pretty sure Melvin himself does not want to repeat the same mistake.

[Oldcity]

Personally I don't see the Brewers as an 80 win team right now with Escobar at short and Gomez in center. But obviously signings can/will change that.

 

That said, if they DFA Bush to give Jarrod Washburn a multi-year deal, I'll be disgusted.

[Invader3K]

Well, the latest talk seems to be that Bush will be retained, so you might have nothing to worry about there.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

This deal scares me. Wolf's numbers were much better than his career norms last year and park driven. The more hitter friendly/neutral Miller Park will bring him back to earth. I think we are buying too high here and would rather explore the trade market and inquire about guys like Vazquez, Correia, and Josh Johnson.

[giffted1]

I don't understand why people continue to insist on calling this a Suppan-like deal. There is no comparison, aside from the fact that both were FA targets.

There is a comparison.

 

Will a 35 year old Randy Wolf be worth 9-10 million? I highly doubt it. Obviously it's not the same level of overpayment, but like Suppan, Wolf probably won't end up earning his contract.

 

PeaveyFury wrote:

Unless they pitch well and make the problem go away? If they're supposed to stand pat, how does the problem ever go away? Sit around for three or four years and hope like heck that someone falls in our lap or that somebody in A ball comes up and dominates? Your take just doesn't make sense, because you're not even ATTEMPTING to solve the problem. Of course if you don't even try to solve a problem, it's certainly not going to go away. Where do the Brewers start to compete again in your scenario?

I don't want to speak for Tbadder, but here are my thoughts:

It's not about not attempting to solve the problem. It's about choosing the best time to solve the problem. Doing little or nothing this off season puts us in a great financial position next off season, an off season in which the available pitching looks to be exponentially better. If we can resist the urge to waste money this off season, we should have the payroll flexibility next off season to sign a significantly better pitcher than Randy Wolf (Javier Vazquez, for instance).