Randy Wolf- Latest: Multiple sources say done deal with Brewers

[fondybrewfan]

I like this deal.

 

Thuis couple with the Maine/Hart trade and the signing of Marlon Byrd for RF (As speculated on rotoworld) I think the team is significantly better. Although with Maine's injury concerns I still would like to pick up another pitcher

[Invader3K]

Latest info on MLBTR: ESPN's Jayson Stark tweets that the Brewers offered Wolf more than Tim Hudson's three-year, $28MM deal, but a half-dozen other teams remain in the mix.

 

I really hope they don't go more than $10 million per year, as much as I would like to see Wolf signed.

[yoshii8]

It's starting to sound like this deal isn't as close as I thought it was, apparantly his agent is meeting w/ Mets officials today. I really, really hope this gets done. Randy Wolf has been really good the last season and a half since he's been healthy, and would be a great signing at 3yr/30 million dollar deal.

[sbrylski]

He of the 4.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the FOUR seasons leading up to 2009?

 

That's still a huge upgrade over 4/5ths of last year's rotation.

Not to mention its a rather archaic way of projecting his performance going forward.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like this deal.

 

Thuis couple with the Maine/Hart trade and the signing of Marlon Byrd for RF (As speculated on rotoworld) I think the team is significantly better. Although with Maine's injury concerns I still would like to pick up another pitcher

Byrd would indeed be a nice addition as he can play CF as well as RF.

[Ennder]

His xFIP trend is pretty nice and one thing that jumps out is his HR/FB% was always high for the Phillies. I'd say the park had more to do with his ERA being higher than his FIP than anything else.

[sbrylski]

From what I'm reading, it sounds like Wolf might just be using the Brewers contract offer. MLB Trade Rumors said his agent was shopping the offer around. My guess is we are the only to offer three years, and he's using that to get some other team to match the length.

[brewmann04]

I hope the brewers have a Plan B or C cause if the big boys get involved we have no shot.

[JoeHova]

From what I'm reading, it sounds like Wolf might just be using the Brewers contract offer. MLB Trade Rumors said his agent was shopping the offer around. My guess is we are the only to offer three years, and he's using that to get some other team to match the length.

That would be fine with me. Unfortunately, I doubt any other team is stupid enough to offer 3 years to a starter who's pitched 640 innings over the past 5 seasons (for comparisons sake, Ben Sheets pitched 600 over the same time frame).

[yoshii8]

That would be fine with me. Unfortunately, I doubt any other team is stupid enough to offer 3 years to a starter who's pitched 640 innings over the past 5 seasons (for comparisons sake, Ben Sheets pitched 600 over the same time frame).

Or you could say that he's pitched 404.2 innings in the last 2 seasons.

[fondybrewfan]

Or you could say Wolf pitched 214 innings in 2009 and 190 innings in 2008. See I can make the stats look in favor of making the signing as well.

 

His 5 year stats are heavily skewed by low totals in 2005 and 2006. Should we really be worried about what happened 3-4 years ago? He has been healthy the last 2 years so at this point there is no reason to expect that he is going to be an injury liability.

 

He is probably the best pitcher with the least amount of risk that the Brewers can afford at this point, plus it won't cost us any prospects or draft picks.

 

As far as this year's FA SP crop is concerned, Wolf is easily one of the safer bets. If the rumored deal of 3/30 is accurate I have no problem with it.

[yoshii8]

Fondy, thats exactly what I was trying to say.

[JoeHova]

Sure, he was healthy for 2 years. That doesn't change the fact that he missed significant time during the preceding 4 seasons. He won't make it through a 3 year deal healthy. Carl Pavano had thrown 423 innings over the 2 seasons before the Yankees signed him to a 4 year deal. He then threw 145 over the next 4. Wolf's downturn may not end up being so dramatic but he's still not a good bet to stay healthy.

[Invader3K]

Well, that's what sucks about guaranteed contracts, especially for small market teams like Milwaukee. But, it's clear they have to do something. They can't just sit there and do nothing and hope and pray that the current rotation is miraculously much better than they were last season.

 

And it's not like Wolf would be their only acquisition of the off-season (at least I'd certainly hope that's the case).

[JoeHova]

And it's not like Wolf would be their only acquisition of the off-season (at least I'd certainly hope that's the case).

I fear that it will be, that's what I'm worried about. Signing Wolf to replace Looper will add a couple wins (assuming Wolf stays healthy), but what's the point? Livan Hernandez (or any number of other guys) would do the same thing for much less. Wolf is not carrying anybody to the playoffs or to a championship, so I'd rather just save the money they would use on him and use it on somebody who actually has a chance (however small) to do that.

[Invader3K]

If not Wolf, than who? They're probably not going to get John Lackey, so who else is out there in free agency that has a realistic chance of coming to Milwaukee and being better than Wolf?

[RockCoCougars]

OK, now that I've seen today's developments and the numbers, I've went from torn on this to "pull the offer off the table". I'm not comfortable with the money, or the fact that Wolf's agent is "shopping the offer around".

[bbrauch2000]

So the fact that he has a competent agent who is out there doing his job should be enough for us to take ourselves out of the running?

[RockCoCougars]

So the fact that he has a competent agent who is out there doing his job should be enough for us to take ourselves out of the running?

No, but I'm not about to get into a bidding war for Randy Wolf, or sit on my hands waiting for him to make a decision. Make him an offer fitting the #3 that he is (3/$25) and either he signs immediately, or the team should move on to other options before they are snapped up by other teams. Eight figures for three years is too much for this guy anyway- I'd rather take my chances on Harden for that kind of coin... much younger and much more upside. It's not like Wolf has been Mr. Durable throughout his career either.

[yoshii8]

Joe Hova, come on now, you think that signing Livian Hernandez would do just as much as signing Randy Wolf? The point is that Randy Wolf has been very good the last season and a half, and has shown that he is fully healthy, and we need good pitching.

 

I know you don't want the Brewers to sign Randy Wolf, but to compare his impact w/ someone like Livian Hernandez is pretty ridiculous to me.

[JoeHova]

Joe Hova, come on now, you think that signing Livian Hernandez would do just as much as signing Randy Wolf? The point is that Randy Wolf has been very good the last season and a half, and has shown that he is fully healthy, and we need good pitching.

 

I know you don't want the Brewers to sign Randy Wolf, but to compare his impact w/ someone like Livian Hernandez is pretty ridiculous to me.

My point was more that it would be easy to upgrade from Looper, not that the Brewers should sign Livan. Wolf is that mid-level pitcher like Suppan. I prefer signing an actually good pitcher or taking guys off the scrapheap. There is no upside in signing guys like Suppan and Wolf. The best a team can hope for is that they earn their contract. With star players, they may outperform their deal. Same thing with cheap scrapheap guys, or injury prone former stars. I just don't see how signing Wolf helps the team contend anymore than signing a Livan does.

[And That]

Wolf is that mid-level pitcher like Suppan.

While you can group pitchers any way you want to, a group that contains Randy Wolf and Jeff Suppan is a very large and diverse group. By virtually any objective measure, Wolf has far outperformed Suppan (or Livan Hernandez) over the past 3 seasons. It's not even really very close.

 

Wolf probably helps the team contend more than Livan Hernandez or Braden Looper because he's a better pitcher... I'm not sure where the disconnect is here.

[Invader3K]

Wolf last year had an ERA around 3.20 and a WHIP around 1.10. Even if he regresses somewhat (and I'd say he almost certainly will), he's significantly better than either Suppan or Looper.

 

Do we have to go over the numbers again on how bad the Brewers rotation was last year? Everyone other than Gallardo and Narveson was completely pathetic. It's not even debatable.

[JoeHova]

But by how much? Enough to make it worthwhile to sign him to a 3 year deal? Wolf's WARs the past 3 years have been 1.7, 2.0, and 3.0. Livan's have been .4, 1.4, and 1.7. Suppan's the 3 years before he signed with the Brewers were 1.3, 1.5, 1.6. Like I acknowledged, Wolf is better than they are. However, if he's only a win better, I'd rather sign a guy like Livan to a $1 million contract (which is what he got last year) than Wolf to a near $30 million deal.

[Weirdos19]

But by how much? Enough to make it worthwhile to sign him to a 3 year deal? Wolf's WARs the past 3 years have been 1.7, 2.0, and 3.0. Livan's have been .4, 1.4, and 1.7. Suppan's the 3 years before he signed with the Brewers were 1.3, 1.5, 1.6. Like I acknowledged, Wolf is better than they are. However, if he's only a win better, I'd rather sign a guy like Livan to a $1 million contract (which is what he got last year) than Wolf to a near $30 million deal.

So, you actually think that Livan Hernandez is almost as good as Randy Wolf? Couldn't we afford Livan after we snag Wolf?

 

And BTW, you are comparing Wolf's numbers when he was injured to Suppan's at his peak.