Randy Wolf- Latest: Multiple sources say done deal with Brewers

[MNBrew]

You have to start somewhere and most other options are worse. It's not like Wolf pitched like Suppan, Bush, Parra, or Looper last year. He pitched well.

 

I like the move & I hope it happens. Is he an All-Star? Of course not. But he's no pariah, either. The sky's not falling. (You can't really think you'd catch lightning in a bottle or get great quality pitching for 1983 salary levels!) And you have to figure Melvin's far from finished -- at least as far as efforts go, anyway, because it does take 2 to tango.

[crewcrazy]

For what it's worth, Wolf's FIP the past few seasons (with the "real" ERA in parentheses):

2009 - 3.96 (3.23)

2008 - 4.17 (4.30)

2007 - 3.99 (4.73)

 

If the deal does happen, the Brewers will be getting a pretty nice pitcher -- I wouldn't call him a one year wonder or a contract year guy, as he's been very solid for a few years now. Far from being another Suppan signing, IMO.

[nate82]

Wolf was the guy I wanted the Brewers to sign to a 2 or 3 year deal last year instead of Looper. If only the Brewers would have signed Wolf last year though Wolf really wasn't interested in playing anywhere other than on the West Coast last year though.

[kramnoj]

We should head off the idea that 2009 was by far a career year for Wolf, as 2002 was very similar. We shouldn't expect a repeat, but it would be wrong to be under the impression that he has never pitched that well before.

 

Wolf has been mostly average to above average. It's likely that the Brewers will regret a 3rd year (and could easily regret the whole contract), but he seems like a reasonable gamble for the Brewers for the next 2 years.

[PeaveyFury]

Tom H confirms that they're likely closing in on Wolf, as Melvin has become scarce at the meetings tonight:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/78743877.html

[JoeHova]

We should head off the idea that 2009 was by far a career year for Wolf, as 2002 was very similar. We shouldn't expect a repeat, but it would be wrong to be under the impression that he has never pitched that well before.

It does not inspire confidence that he went 6 years between good seasons. I wouldn't mind Wolf for one year. 3 will be disastrous, whether because of injury or ineffectiveness. He's just not that good and has had plenty of bad years. If they sign him to a $9 million per year contract, the best they can hope for is that he earns the money. There is far more downside than there is upside is signing a guy like him, as we saw with Suppan (and Looper). I'd rather throw that $27 million at Sheets, Harden, and Bedard all for next year. If 2 of them were able to stay healthy, the Brewers would have the best staff in the NL. If they all got hurt, the team wouldn't be any worse off than they will be with Wolf.

[crewcrazy]

Don't know the money for sure but the figures I've heard are in the $25-27 million range for the three years. I have heard nothing about club options.

 

Santa is real!

[Tbadder]

Just reiterating: I don't think anyone is a difference maker and the Brewers should have nothing to do with free agent pitchers. The only guy that would make the Crew real contenders would be Halladay and they'd have to give up their future for that. Please Melvin, stand pat.

[kramnoj]

It does not inspire confidence that he went 6 years between good seasons.

 

Wolf doesn't have to be good to help the Brewers. He could be average, and it would be an upgrade. It's not asking much for Wolf to be averagish. It's not likely that he will be healthy and good, but he should fairly easily upgrade the Brewers.

[colbyjack]

Santa is real!

 

That's good. For as much as TH ripped the guy in the JS thread for saying what he did about Wolf, it does look as though that initial prediction is going to come true.

 

I'm pretty happy about this. Wolf was the one free agent that I liked that made the most sense for the Brewers, especially when the Dodgers declined arbitration. Since I also was pretty happy with Gregg Zaun, another free agent that I felt made a ton of sense for the Brewers, I'm liking their moves so far.

[PeaveyFury]

The only guy that would make the Crew real contenders would be Halladay and they'd have to give up their future for that. Please Melvin, stand pat.

 

This team is probably an 80-ish win team as it is now, so adding a couple of legitimate starters should get them towards 85-86 wins. Standing pat is a completely infeasible and ineffective strategy, and simply not going to happen. Nor should it.

[sbrylski]

We should head off the idea that 2009 was by far a career year for Wolf, as 2002 was very similar. We shouldn't expect a repeat, but it would be wrong to be under the impression that he has never pitched that well before.

It does not inspire confidence that he went 6 years between good seasons. I wouldn't mind Wolf for one year. 3 will be disastrous, whether because of injury or ineffectiveness. He's just not that good and has had plenty of bad years. If they sign him to a $9 million per year contract, the best they can hope for is that he earns the money. There is far more downside than there is upside is signing a guy like him, as we saw with Suppan (and Looper). I'd rather throw that $27 million at Sheets, Harden, and Bedard all for next year. If 2 of them were able to stay healthy, the Brewers would have the best staff in the NL. If they all got hurt, the team wouldn't be any worse off than they will be with Wolf.

I think he's been good for the past three seasons. 2004-2006, he had GB/FB rate problems with the number hovering around .80, and therefore held a high HR rate. In 2006, his problems were compounded when his K/BB ratio bottomed out to 1.33. Since 2006, he got his GB/FB ratio back above 1 over the three seasons, and his K/BB rate was back to his early 2000's range. It was just a little bad luck that caused his ERA to lag behind his rejuvenation.

 

I think his 2008 line is about what we should expect moving forward. Mid-2's K/BB, and an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 over the life of a three year deal.

 

I don't think he's comparable to Suppan. He's no sure thing, but he's definitely got a solid arm.

[JoeHova]

It's true that Wolf is a somewhat better pitcher than Suppan was when he signed but that is mitigated (at least imo) by Wolf's far worse injury track record. Wolf pitched the last 2 entire seasons but before that had 4 consecutive years where he missed significant time due to injury. I think Wolf's contract is just as likely to be disastrous as Suppan's was. The only saving grace is that Wolf's deal will be smaller but that is small comfort to me. If they want an injury prone guy, go for Bedard or Harden or Sheets. Those guys are actually good when healthy, not just OK.

[wishicouldhit]

It is a mistake to compare Wolf to Suppan/Looper. I agree that the third year (non option) is kind of scary. But with that being said, getting a SP for less than 10 mil/yr of his quality is a really good deal.

[BrewCrewForever]

After the Suppan deal I'm always a little worried to see a SP given a contract for longer then 2 years. But I like Wolf, he was #1 on my list of free agent pitchers for the Brewers to sign so I will be happy when it goes official. If he can give us 3 years close to what he did in LA last year I would be delighted. He is a solid #3, and last year pitched close to a #2.

[kramnoj]

If they want an injury prone guy, go for Bedard or Harden or Sheets. Those guys are actually good when healthy, not just OK.

 

We don't know that this deal will prevent them from making a 2nd move. It may just be that Wolf will take this deal and that the other pitchers are hoping they get better offers. Wolf, maybe more than any other player, may be eager to not see another 3 year offer evaporate.

[TooLiveBrew]

This is good news. I don't think Wolf + someone like Davis is exactly what the Crew needs per se, but it'd certainly be better than other seemingly realistic scenarios. Instead of Davis, I'd like to see the team pursue guys like Sheets & Harden, so there's some more upside.

 

Also, very nicely played, crewcrazy http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[valpocrewsader]

Not a fan. Commit three years and ~$30 million to this guy? He of the 4.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the FOUR seasons leading up to 2009? Cardinals just picked up Penny for 1 year and ~$7 million. We're giving out more money per year for TRIPLE the years for essentially the same guy? And we're supposed to ridicule the Cardinals over in that thread? They nailed that deal while we're signing up for another fruitless regret.

 

I would have rather taken that $30 million and gone for broke with three 1- or 2-year deals on high-reward question marks with potential to boost us to a division championship. Hope to absorb some of the risk with quantity. Randy Wolf just means more noodling around in the the land of mediocrity. Lame.

 

I hope I'm all kinds of wrong about this. It feels like just another Brewers blunder.

[DannoMac21]

Don't like this move at all.

[The Ignitor]

I think the move is ok. The Brewers have to do something. For good or bad, the idea that they will stand pat is laughable given their owner, the back to back 3-million attendance seasons, and the potentially short window of Fielder and Braun together. It's simply not realistic to expect them to trade and sign Halladay or sign Lackey. This is the consensus next best guy. I like him better than Davis or Washburn. Now, I think they still need to go out and find a younger arm as pitcher #2. If they can find a way to get Edwin Jackson, then I'm quite pleased with a Gallardo, Wolf, Jackson, Parra, Bush rotation. Sign Mulder to minor league deal to add some depth and potential. Keep Suppan in pen as depth in case of injuries. Remember, if we can move from awful starting pitching, to just above average starting pitching, that might just be enough with the core of this offense to push us back into competitiveness for the playoffs.

 

As for those who make fun of the Cardinals signings Penney, I believe you are making a mistake. By midseason, Penney will declared Dave Duncan's latest great reclamation project. And if that happens (I hope not), the Cards with Carpenter, Wainwright, and a rejuvenated Penney might be pretty tough.

[Invader3K]

He of the 4.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the FOUR seasons leading up to 2009?

 

That's still a huge upgrade over 4/5ths of last year's rotation.

[Tisko]

Hopefully he can continue the success that he had last year. I really don't think he can be had for 3 yr/25 mil. I bet the deal is more towards the 30 mil mark.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like the deal. Wolf is very comparable to Ted Lilly, a guy who's capable of a year that resembles that of top #2 or even low #1 starter, but is usually no worse than an average #3. Lilly got 4/$40 million three years ago. Brewers had nothing approaching that from any of their 2-5 guys last year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm ok with this. I'd be ecstatic about this deal if it was 2 years though.

[Invader3K]

Hopefully he can continue the success that he had last year. I really don't think he can be had for 3 yr/25 mil. I bet the deal is more towards the 30 mil mark.

He may not want to sit around on this though. Last year he turned down a similar contract and then ended up settling for a one year deal with the Dodgers.

 

My guess is something like 3 years and $27 million total. While that's a decent contract, it shouldn't cripple the Brewers if he under performs, either.