John Lackey

[kramnoj]

It's not a rule that it be like that. Arod's deal is structured differently

 

08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M

 

A lot of times GMs will backload deals to give them more flexibility than anything. The Brewers could have prearby players at CF, C, SS, 3B in 2011 and Braun still cheap in 2011. They could structure a deal that would pay Lackey a lot in 2011 and 2012 and then less after that. I don't think it would be likely, but it's possible and may make some sense.

[Hate those Rodents]

A team like Milwaukee would be best served not front-loading or backloading. Simply give him the same amount each year.

[kramnoj]

Why? If you can look at a team and know that x amount is guaranteed each year and that you have a good chance of having x players be cheap in given years, it would make sense to try and work the numbers to your benefit.

 

This is obviously hypothetical, but let's say Brewers signed Lackey to a 5 year $80M deal. It would be incredibly difficult to pay Lackey $16M for 2010 and field a competitive team. Just a rough guess, but I would probably try and get 2010 to be around $10M, then do 2011-2013 for $20M and then do 2014 for $10M. Once the young Brewers start getting their first or second arby raises, Lackey wouldn't be eating up much payroll, and most of his salary would come when half of the position players are cheap and the team is hopefully relying on young arms as well.

[Hate those Rodents]

I just see too much risk in that. It's like people that bought their houses cheap the first year recently with those bs loans. "I can afford THAT". Year two and three comes and you realize it wasn't such a good idea and you can't afford that number. Better to know what you are paying if you are one of the little or mid-sized guys each and every year.

[Teatoe993]

The reason it's difficult to pay Lackey $16 for 2010 is because the Brewers backloaded the contracts of Suppan and Hall. I never understood the concept of backloading. I'd rather just keep the salaries the same each year.

[kramnoj]

Year two and three comes and you realize it wasn't such a good idea and you can't afford that number.

 

Why couldn't the Brewers afford that number? If 2011 comes and young prospects aren't growing as hoped, you can always restructure the deal to even it out, as long as Lackey doesn't lose any value in doing so.

 

You say a team like Milwaukee can't afford to do it, I think Milwaukee needs to be as creative as possible to put together a contender.

[Invader3K]

This seems like the last year the payroll should be so constricted for a while. I think Mark Attanasio has been a tremendous owner, but I would hope if only a few million stand in the way of acquiring a pitcher like Lackey, he would give the go ahead to increase the payroll for 2010 a bit, realizing he'll get it back in 2011, more than likely.

[Hate those Rodents]

Your plan is to pay Lackey 20 million in 2011-2013? Bye Bye Prince.

 

I'd really rather not even argue this. It's something I don't agree with and I realize I might be wrong. My philosophy on this is the same as it is in my own life. Pay the same each year, each month, each week. Getting "creative" gets you into a lot of trouble, sometimes sooner than later.

[kramnoj]

Your plan is to pay Lackey 20 million in 2011-2013? Bye Bye Prince.

 

This is far from true. Half of the starting position players in 2011 could cost less than $2M total. When 25% or so of the most important players on your team will only take up less than 1% of the payroll, you can afford to have big contracts.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I really think the Brewers need this signing. Someone noted awhile back that the real risk is overpaying for above average players. Zito aside, i think the elite pitchers lately have been as good as advertised. Trevor Hoffman instantly made our bullpen better. Lackey can make our rotation that much better. If it takes 5/80, i do it. Overseason buzz and ticket orders here we come

[splitterpfj]

Lackey is an excellent pitcher who would clearly help the Brewers, but keep in mind, he's started the season six weeks late due to injury - two years running.

 

I'd love to see the Brewers get him, but I'd fear some dead time on the back end of that contract.

[Flood Pants]

Isn't back loading done, at least in part, because of inflation? A couple million dollars seven years from now is less money than a couple million dollars now.

[logan82]

I never understood the concept of backloading.

 

A dollar today is going to be worth more than a dollar a year from now in most cases. Payroll will typically rise year after year. That may not be the case this coming year.

 

Contracts are usually back loaded or increase gradually year to year. Contracts that are front loaded are unusual.

[TooLiveBrew]

Monetary concerns & past injury concerns aside, Lackey just doesn't appear that he places much importance on physical conditioning in general. Not the kind of player I want to see a long-term contract used on... let alone the facts that a) long-term pitching contracts are always a bad idea for small-market teams & b) there's no realistic chance the Brewers actually sign Lackey.

[tigerbrew]

I really hope the Brewers work harder on pursuing Lackey, please don't give up so soon. We need to add another top of the rotation pitcher to realistically have a shot, guys like Halliday, Lackey or Hamels would be what we desperately need. Hopefully DM is working hard on pursuing a trade for Halliday or Hamels right now.

[Tbadder]

Nobody is giving up. We're just being realistic. Lackey is not going to make us as good as the Phillies or Dodgers or Yankees etc. He might make us a division contender if the Cards lose Holliday and the Cubs keep shooting themselves in the foot with contracts for old broke down players. But that's really it. And that's only if we get Lackey. We're probably not going to get him unless we really overpay. What is Davis going to do? Wolf? Washburn? I just respectfully think this is a fools game; I don't want the Brewers chasing their own tail.

[Weirdos19]

If the 2 pitchers we add posts a sub 4 ERA, we can contend. 4 of our 5 starters had an ERA over 5 last year. No doubt a small improvement can make a big difference.

[Tbadder]

But that's if we don't regress offensively. And I do believe we'll be worse offensively at 2B, SS, CF, 3B, and maybe even C and 1B.

[BrewerBrent]

But that's if we don't regress offensively. And I do believe we'll be worse offensively at 2B, SS, CF, 3B, and maybe even C and 1B.

CF yes, 3B probably assuming regression from Casey. 1B might see some regression as well.

 

2B is interesting because we did get a surprising amount of production there from counsell and later lopez. Probably stretching it a bit here, but if we get a healthy weeks that we saw in the first month last year then we are still getting really good production out of 2B.

 

Hard to get much worse production of out catcher though. I think Lucroy should be able to post at least a kendall-esque OBP plus a bit more slugging.

[Hate those Rodents]

Escobar will easily replace Hardy's productivity and then some from last year. Not to mention that he won't be counted on to hit in a crucial part of the order like Hardy was trusted to do and failed at.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not so fast on Escobar. He might wind up being disappointingly close to Hardy's '09 (esp. the OBP & SLG). I agree with Tbadder's critical eye on our offense. We could quite easily be very mediocre in 2010.

[endaround]

Escobar projects to be slightly better than Hardy last year (ZIPs was like .279/.321/.373 though unreleased). Half of the probability weight falls below that. Add in Counsell going back to being Counsell and not a top flight offensive SS.

[logan82]

Doesn't sound like Melvin is as interested in Lackey as some hope. Sounds more like Lackey's agent was trying to drive up his price. Link

 

Melvin did not meet with Steve Hilliard, agent for free-agent pitcher John Lackey, earlier in the week at the general managers meetings in Chicago. Hilliard did place a telephone call Wednesday evening to Melvin, however.

"He was just calling to tell me that he's representing John Lackey and that he's open to any clubs," said Melvin. "He said he's not ruling out any clubs."

 

[bensheeps]

mlbtraderumors has a report on Olney's latest blog listing the order he feels are the likeliest teams to sign Lackey.

 

1.) Mariners

2 ) Angels

3.) Brewers

4.) Mets

5.) RedSox

6.) Yankees

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/olney-on-lackey-astros-rangers-doumit-carroll.html

[Invader3K]

I hate to be the one stirring the pot on this stuff constantly (maybe I am just a rumor addict or something), but someone on the JSOnline blog (I know, I know) says that the Brewers have submitted an offer to Lackey (as have four other teams). The poster claims to have connections to someone in the league office. Says the Brewers' offer is the highest salary on average per year (but not the highest total contract offer).

 

I guess at least it's good to think that they are making a run at him.