John Lackey

[jjfanec]

With the money saved by trading Hardy and not resigning Cameron the Brewers will have the money to go after a top flight pitcher if they choose. Lackey is easily the best pitcher on the market and the bidding will be high with all the typical players (NY, LA, etc) potentially involved. However, the Brewers were willing to open the pocket book up for CC last off-season. He turned 30 this year. I have read where he might get A.J. Burnett money, which was 5 years 82 million.

 

Obviously, we need pitching and the chances of getting Lackey might be pretty slim. But what would people be willing to spend to get him?

[nate82]

The Dodgers are unlikely to get involved and have been rumored to not being able to resign Wolf. Also the Angels have Vlad who they need to resign and they have already resigned Abreu. I don't see the Angels being much of a big player in a Lackey deal. Remember the Dodgers owner is going through a rather sticky divorce so that is going to have an effect on what they do.

 

The Yankees have Hughes and Chamberlain who can be put in the 4-5 spot in their rotation. Pettite will be coming back for another year. The Yankees will also be extending Rivera for another 5-years this off season and that is not going to be cheap. The Yankees will probably go after Holliday or Bay instead of Matsui and Damon so any money saved there will be gone with one of those two.

 

I believe it will be down to Washington, Milwaukee, and Detroit for Lackey. Washington was willing to give Teixeira a huge contract last year so I wouldn't be surprised if they offer Lackey a huge contract also.

[endaround]

The Angels still have the money they were paying Escobar. They can bring back Lackey back easily.

[jjfanec]

The Dodgers are unlikely to get involved and have been rumored to not being able to resign Wolf. Also the Angels have Vlad who they need to resign and they have already resigned Abreu. I don't see the Angels being much of a big player in a Lackey deal. Remember the Dodgers owner is going through a rather sticky divorce so that is going to have an effect on what they do.

 

The Yankees have Hughes and Chamberlain who can be put in the 4-5 spot in their rotation. Pettite will be coming back for another year. The Yankees will also be extending Rivera for another 5-years this off season and that is not going to be cheap. The Yankees will probably go after Holliday or Bay instead of Matsui and Damon so any money saved there will be gone with one of those two.

 

I believe it will be down to Washington, Milwaukee, and Detroit for Lackey. Washington was willing to give Teixeira a huge contract last year so I wouldn't be surprised if they offer Lackey a huge contract also.

I posted in another thread the same thoughts you had on the Yankees not getting involved. If they are out it at least takes away the team that can offer an unmatchable contract. If both LA teams are out that would be nice as well. Does Detroit really have the money for a big contract? I thought I had read where the economy was really hurting them, but I could be wrong. Could the Mets be players? Their rotation could use another ace and with the Yankees winning a series they probably want to make a splash. Lackey seems to be a competitive guy who wants to win so I think we would be attractive. With him, Yo, another pitch, Bush and Parra our rotation is solid. Braun, Fielder, Weeks, and the others can give us enough offense to compete and the bullpen looks pretty set.

[reillymcshane]

I think the minimum he gets is 5 and $75 million. Probably more like 6 years and $96 million. Some predictions have been north of $100 million. I'm skeptical of that, but remember, it just takes one person to make that kind of offer. I believe the Angels have let the Lackey ship sail - part of the reason for the Kazmir acquisition. Detroit, Washington, Yankees are obvious. There's also Baltimore and Philadelphia to consider. And can you ever dismiss the Red Sox? Especially if they don't think they don't think the will be able to re-up Beckett?

 

Personally, I always loved Lackey. He was a workhorse - went exactly 33 starts for 5 straight years, always getting better. But with his injuries the past couple of years, I'd sit out the bidding, especially if it gets past four years.

[brewmann04]

i would not be suprised to see him wear a Yankee uniform next season

[Team Canada]

Unless the money was dramatically higher than everyone else, I cannot fathom choosing Washington as the place you may end your career, given other options.

 

As for pursuing Lackey in general, the problem, as it often is, is that it's not about the next 2-3 years, it's those 2-3 years after that that any deal will require. I'm not sure I want a 35-36 year old Lackey, regardless of how good he may be the next year or 2, especially when that will be 15-20% of our payroll.

[Invader3K]

I don't know if I really see Washington going after him...I think that would be a terrible move for them. They're still probably a year or two away from seriously contending. What would be the point on blowing a ton of money on a guy like Lackey at this point?

[twobrewers]

But with his injuries the past couple of years, I'd sit out the bidding, especially if it gets past four years.

Exactly. Lackey may be the "cream of the crop" - but there are several players more talented available. He has a career 3.81 ERA and dwindling strikeout numbers. I am terrified to give him anything over 4 years.

 

If healthy, I think Sheets, Bedard and Harden all have better stuff. Myers, Randy Johnson, Pedro, Lowry could also potentially put up similar numbers with a lot less of a commitment.

 

Lackey is no Sabathia.

[nate82]

I don't know if I really see Washington going after him...I think that would be a terrible move for them. They're still probably a year or two away from seriously contending. What would be the point on blowing a ton of money on a guy like Lackey at this point?

The same reason behind the signing of Suppan here a few years ago. A pitcher that can pitch every five days who has veteran leadership also the showing the fans we are trying to win signing that a lot of the fans are yelling for.

[brewmann04]

Lackey will be going to a big money team

[Wesrob1]

But with his injuries the past couple of years, I'd sit out the bidding, especially if it gets past four years.

Exactly. Lackey may be the "cream of the crop" - but there are several players more talented available. He has a career 3.81 ERA and dwindling strikeout numbers. I am terrified to give him anything over 4 years.

 

If healthy, I think Sheets, Bedard and Harden all have better stuff. Myers, Randy Johnson, Pedro, Lowry could also potentially put up similar numbers with a lot less of a commitment.

 

Lackey is no Sabathia.

I agree with you twobrewers. It's just more fiscally responsible to go after Sheets/Bedard/ Harden/Myers/Martinez/Johnson/Lowry for a couple years and try to figure out which of them will warrant an extension beyond 2-3 years(excluding Johnson and Martinez). If the Brewers are going to attempt to extend Fielder, they can't afford to have a contract like Lackey is figured to get bogging them down. Hopefully, 2-3 years should be plenty of time for us to get some of those young arms developed.

[jjfanec]

I dont get the desire for Sheets, Bedard, and Harden. I would be okay if the were the second part of what we do, but if one of them is our headliners for the off-season we are in real trouble. Sheets has not pitched in over a year and struggled to pitch a full season before that, Bedard has been hurt the last two years, and Harden has been hurt (148 and 141 innings the past two years which is high for him) and he has not been able to go deep in games along with being only okay this year. Other teams will give those guys decent money so we wont get them that cheap.

[dadofandrew]

I would say a durable guy like Davis and a guy like Sheets or Harden might be in the plans, if they do not acquire one in trade. Narveson almost certainly be in reserve, Butler will be in AAA, and probably one other guy in the 'pen will have some rotation experience, like a McClung or similar type pitcher.

 

A comparable guy is Ismael Valdez, who rarely was healthy for a full season, but he gave his team 15-20 starts a year, usually. Is 15 starts of 4.20 ball helpful? Of course it is.

[brewmann04]

I agree getting Davis but i feel the Other will be Mulder.

[colbyjack]

It just seems as though there is going to be a pretty hefty bidding war for Lackey, and whenever that happens it always seems as though it is best to stay out of the bidding instead of being the team that gave up the most money. Usually, teams seem to regret such investments, and the Brewers aren't in a position to be that team.

 

Like twobrewers, I'm interested in guys like Brett Myers and Noah Lowry, who to me seem to have a pretty high "could use a change of scenery" ceiling to get themselves back on track to prior success.

[Wesrob1]

I dont get the desire for Sheets, Bedard, and Harden. I would be okay if the were the second part of what we do, but if one of them is our headliners for the off-season we are in real trouble. Sheets has not pitched in over a year and struggled to pitch a full season before that, Bedard has been hurt the last two years, and Harden has been hurt (148 and 141 innings the past two years which is high for him) and he has not been able to go deep in games along with being only okay this year. Other teams will give those guys decent money so we wont get them that cheap.

Granted these 3 have been injury prone, but for me, personally, the appeal for those 3 is the fact that they have the ability to conjure up a dominating performances on any given night. I do believe 2 or 3 of them yearly salary could be had with the yearly rate that Lackey will command.

[fleehaw]

I would much rather trade for Kawakami than sign Davis. They are the same age (34) and Kawakami could regress from his 2009 numbers and still be better than Davis. The Braves are rumored to want to move him or Lowe, so his price tag could be very little beyond picking up his remaining 2yrs at $6.67M per. Davis will most likely require more years and more money than that.

 

Davis, Kawakami, Washburn...they really don't matter too much. It's the pitcher the Brewers need to acquire to pair at the top of the rotation with Gallardo is what matters the most.

[MNBrew]

He'd take more to get than Kawakami, but I think I'd love to see Vazquez in next year's rotation.

[dadofandrew]

Brett Myers would be a target of mine as a "buy low" guy, but I have to wonder if Doug will consider him, as he's had personal/criminal issues, involving domestic abuse I believe. He's a guy that has sort of flown under the radar, is a big RH who throws hard (Doug's calling card), and is mostly durable.

 

Mulder will be a minor league signing for depth. He won't be considered one of the two added.

[lbb020]

Buster Olney is speculating that the Brewers are on top of the Lackey sweepstakes. I think anything over a 4 year deal could be disastrous for the future of the Brewers. I do not relish Doug Melvin's job....the way baseball is structured makes it so incredibly difficult for a small market team to sustain success.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/69591242.html

[fondybrewfan]

I am sorry but I just don't see Melvin going that hard after Lackey. He hasn't made more than 27 in either of the last 2 years and hasn't had more than 177 innings pitched so their is an injury risk on this one. And even if Melvin does really want him, he has to want to come here, and we will have to beat out some higher payroll teams.

 

I just don't see it. I am guessing Melvin will have some interest but he will end up getting out bid fairly easily. I could see him offering like 4/60 and getting blown out of the gym by some 5 or 6 year deal.

[yoshii8]

I am sorry but I just don't see Melvin going that hard after Lackey. He hasn't made more than 27 in either of the last 2 years and hasn't had more than 177 innings pitched so their is an injury risk on this one.

If you add his 20 playoff innings this season he was just under 200 innings. He also was at about 180 the previous season including the playoffs. I'm not too worried about his durability, he has been consistently at or over 200 innings for almost all of his career. I would love to have Lackey as our ace, he is a great pitcher.

[Invader3K]

I'd love to have him too. I'm just sure that some team like the Yankees will offer him some stupid 6 year contract that Melvin cannot and should not match.

[BREWCREW5]

Sadly, you can pretty much take Lackey off of your wishlist. mlbtraderumors.com is reporting that they Yankees are "definitely interested" in Lackey.

 

Until there is a salary cap, the crew will never be able to get close to a bidding war with satan (yankees).